Li Chengpeng: Can Xi Jinping Serve Indefinitely?
Renowned writer Li Chengpeng delves into the power system and logic of China in this program, analyzing whether Xi Jinping will remain in power indefinitely. By comparing historical dictators, Wang Mang of the Han Dynasty, and the Great Purge of the Soviet Union, the article dissects the impact of the military, the civil service system, economic policies, and the succession crisis on the current regime, while offering cold observations and predictions regarding the future political landscape of China and coping strategies for the public.
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Elections every two years, sitting on this boat, sitting on that boat—the gang leader cannot let one person become too powerful; there must be balance. Rules that have been in place for decades are being changed; surely many people are uncomfortable, and infighting among one's own is even more pointless. Even organized crime syndicates have checks on power; one cannot let one person become too powerful; there must be balance. These are old rules from decades ago; once changed, surely many of the elders will be uncomfortable.
However, the elders in Zhongnanhai have either gone to report to Marx and Chairman Mao, or have moved into luxury one-bedroom apartments in Qincheng Prison. Those who remain can only grow flowers, raise birds, and listen to opera at home under the surveillance of the Secret Service. They dare not meet in private, and even if they do, they dare not discuss the Central Committee; at most, they say, "Hey, the weather is really nice today, isn't it?" Hmm, look at my memory, what day of the week is it today, Wednesday?
Feigning dementia is the best way to save one's life. A few days ago, the Fifth Plenary Session of the CCP concluded, and friends who were hoping for news about a successor were once again deeply disappointed, because the meeting was about strict party governance, with no news of a successor. Back then, whether Mao Zedong was alive determined the fate of every Chinese person. Now, whether Chairman Xi will be re-elected is also closely tied to the fate of every Chinese person. So, will Chairman Xi remain in power indefinitely?
So, can Chairman Xi really remain in power indefinitely? Let us first look at the power system and logic of the CCP. In 2018, Xi Jinping amended the constitution to abolish term limits for the President. However, the President does not represent the supreme power in China. Back then, Yang Shangkun and Li Xiannian both served as President, but they were never the number one figure, because in China, the President is closer to a nominal title. The ones who hold the supreme power in Zhongnanhai have always been the Party Chairman or the General Secretary of the Party and the Chairman of the Military Commission. Therefore, as long as Xi continues to serve as General Secretary and Chairman of the Military Commission, he will always be the boss.
Then why did he go to such great lengths, wasting so much effort, to abolish the term limits for such a nominal position as President? The answer is even more ruthless than you think, because he not only wants to remain in power indefinitely, but also wants to completely rewrite the power structure of Zhongnanhai. He cannot allow anyone to become the number two figure, even in name. If it were a company, he would have to be the Chairman, President, CEO, and CFO all at once; if it were a gang, he would have to be the Gang Leader, the Law Enforcement Elder, and the Staff-Wielding Elder all at once. Twenty miles of mountain road, and he wouldn't even switch shoulders after two hundred miles.
China's future power ranking will no longer be number one, number two, and number three, but rather everyone below the number one figure is just a wage earner. The power structure is no longer a pyramid, but an inverted ladder. This is the profound meaning of the 2018 constitutional amendment. Back in the day, although Party Chairman Mao could say to President Liu Shaoqi: "What is so great about you? I can topple you with a flick of my little finger."
Chairman Mao was not bragging. In the battle to bring down Liu Shaoqi, although he won a complete victory, he also suffered deep internal injuries. Chairman Xi learned the lesson, took precautions, and is a master of power politics. Because the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has two magic weapons: first, the Party commands the gun, otherwise the warlords will become too powerful; second, political power grows out of the barrel of a gun. Because if political power grew out of truth, and you encountered people like Chen Duxiu or Hu Yaobang who liked to get to the bottom of things—talking about how truth comes from practice—that would be no fun at all.
Some people ask, is the Party bigger or the gun bigger? In fact, there is no such thing as one being bigger than the other; they are one and the same. Whoever is the boss of the Party must be the boss of the gun, otherwise they will definitely be taken down. Whoever is the boss of the gun must be the boss of the Party. In a gang, if you have the gun, others will listen to you; the title is not important. Deng Xiaoping never served as Party Chairman or General Secretary, but he was the Chairman of the Central Military Commission. After June 4, 1989, he didn't even bother to keep the title of Chairman of the Central Military Commission. Even after Chen Yun withdrew, even the common people selling tea eggs on the roadside knew clearly.
Deng Xiaoping was the real boss, the true big shot! Therefore, in 1992, the
The Soviet Ministry of Internal Affairs monitored every officer in every unit. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) built party branches right down to the company level; this fucking awesome factory setting is deeply ingrained in the bones of every soldier. You see, during the Great Purge in the Soviet Union, several marshals who were incredibly brave on the battlefield never had a single thought of rebellion. Even Marshal Tukhachevsky, who invented the deep battle doctrine, pleaded guilty in three days, his confession stained with blood. Even if you have a million soldiers, they can still kill you, you old military leader. Gamarnik, the head of the Main Political Directorate of the Soviet Army, did not hesitate to shoot himself upon learning he had been dismissed.
This is the same as Zhang Yang, the director of the Political Work Department of the PLA, who hanged himself. They have the guts to commit suicide, but no balls to rebel. Because those specifically responsible for brainwashing soldiers know that under this system of comprehensive grooming and indoctrination, no one will follow you if you try to rebel. Chairman Xi understands this factory setting all too well, and he picks them off one by one.
When arresting Xu Caihou and Guo Boxiong of the Jiang faction, Zhang Yang of the Hu faction said that one must have emotional hatred and a political break with Guo and Xu. Fang Fenghui said that the remaining poison of Guo Boxiong and Xu Caihou must be thoroughly cleared. When arresting Fang Fenghui of the Hu faction, Xi's childhood friend Zhang Youxia said that the remaining poison of the likes of Fang Fenghui and Zhang Yang must be thoroughly cleared. When arresting Zhang Youxia, it was the turn of Zhang Shengmin of the Xi faction to shout: "Resolutely achieve the 'Two Upholds'." Don't be surprised when someone shouts "Arrest Zhang Shengmin" in the future.
And the great Chairman Xi knows that just arresting people is not enough; after one batch is harvested, another will grow in the field, so he simply plowed the field again. Anyway, Chairman Xi likes farm work; after plowing it once, he sets it on fire. He changed the seven major military regions that had existed for decades since the Mao era into five major theater commands: East, West, South, North, and Central. The General Staff, General Political Department, General Logistics Department, and General Armament Department were dismantled into 15 CMC departments, and the Strategic Support Force was also split into four parts, all directly under the CMC. The strings are all held in Chairman Xi's hands. It's like flying a kite; when he tells you to come back, you have to go home. The People's Armed Police Force was changed to be under the unified leadership of the Central Military Commission.
In short, Chairman Xi dismantled and reassembled the entire army like Lego bricks. No one can assemble a complete unit in their hands; every piece must report to Chairman Xi. There is no middle management; it's like Guazi Used Car—no middleman to earn the price difference. When the responsibility system of the CMC Chairman was officially written into the Party Constitution in 2017, it meant that even the CMC Vice Chairmen are just working for Boss Xi; you are all just wage earners.
Some say that if the soldiers don't know the generals and the generals don't know the soldiers, it will affect combat effectiveness. However, in Chairman Xi's view, didn't Comrade Stalin also purge the entire Red Army back then? And didn't he defeat Hitler? Combat effectiveness is first and foremost loyalty; loyalty is the word Chairman Xi says the most. Don't fantasize about Zhang Youxia or Old Wu ordering people to carry two axes to raid the execution ground; that's Water Margin, now there are only knock-offs; that's Li Kui, now there is only Li Gui.
Even if there are brave men under heavy rewards, how do you communicate? WeChat or QQ? Now the entire army is under surveillance. In the era of AI and big data, any unusual movement is synchronized to the CMC in seconds. As soon as your company leaves Hebei, two divisions plus a row of missiles are aimed at you. Don't fantasize about colluding from within and without; you've watched too much of the Korean movie "The Man Standing Next". Besides the Central Guard Bureau, Zhongnanhai also has the Special Service Bureau, plus the Ministry of Public Security, the Ministry of State Security, and the Beijing Garrison. It's not the era of cold weapons anymore. Unless several major military regions rebel together, it's hard to have a Xuanwu Gate Incident. Guns in hand, follow me.
Chairman Xi has handled the military, but the operation of a country cannot do without the civil service system, that is, the government. Zhou Enlai and Zhao Ziyang, who presided over the government in the past, won some popular support, making Chairman Mao and Deng Xiaoping very passive! How can others snore on the side of one's couch? I want a permanent term, a real, total, permanent term, not a Korean-style semi-permanent one. Look at how chaotic the Korean-style semi-permanent is! So Chairman Xi has never stopped performing plastic surgery on the civil service and judicial systems.
He established various leading groups, bypassed the State Council, and served as the group leader himself: leader of the Deep Reform Group, leader of the Cyberspace Group, leader of the Military Reform Group, leader of the Finance and Economics Group, leader of the Foreign Affairs Group, leader of the Taiwan Affairs Group—he didn't even spare football! In the past, Chinese football only feared South Korea and Iran; now it even fears Vietnam and Palestine. In the past, Chinese football was like "How much sorrow can one have? Just like a group of eunuchs visiting a brothel." Why? Because they don't shoot for ninety minutes! Now Chinese football is like "Beyond the mountains, there are more mountains; beyond the buildings, there are more buildings," with eleven monkeys running on the field. In the past, it was a matter of ability; now it's purely for laughs. Hey, sorry, Brother Monkey.
After a series of operations, the State Council has been reduced to a Grand Council. Li Keqiang, apart from leaking the secret that 600 million people have a monthly income of only 1,000 yuan, and the phrase "the Yangtze and Yellow Rivers will not flow backward" before he died, achieved nothing and passed away in gloom. By the time of Li Qiang, it's not even a Grand Council; it's just a scribe eunuch. Look at when they hold meetings, he sits a long way from the boss, like a little follower, for fear of startling the Imperial Majesty.
Moreover, the Organic Law of the State Council explicitly states that it upholds the leadership of the CCP Central Committee. For a government to legislate its allegiance to a single political party is no different from North Korea. Russia, at least on the surface, maintains a multi-party system, and its constitution stipulates that no ideology can be established as the mandatory state ideology. By the way, China has now even incorporated the State Administration for Religious Affairs into the Party's United Front system, which means that even believing in God must be managed by the Party. Look at the temples and monks today; if things continue this way, it will only be:
"Amitabha, Avalokitesvara Bodhisattva, when practicing deep Prajna Paramita, perceived that the five aggregates are all empty. Therefore, I establish the 'Two Establishes,' the 'Four Consciousnesses,' the 'Four Matters of Confidence,' and firmly uphold Comrade Xi Jinping, keeping clear consciousness, confidence in the path, and confidence in the system. Donor, what this poor monk recites is not the Diamond Sutra or the Heart Sutra, but the Party Constitution and 'Xi Jinping: The Governance of China.' What I strike is not the wooden fish, but the political abacus."
In this world, there are no high monks, only demonic monks. Well, the gun, the purse, the pen, the wooden fish, and the knife must all be held in one's hands! The Minister of Public Security has been replaced by an old subordinate from Fujian, and the head of the pen, Wang Huning, has explicitly written 'Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era.' He has had his thoughts named after him while still alive. Neither Lao Jiang nor Lao Hu had this treatment, and even Lao Deng only received it after his death. This has already placed him on par with Mao Zedong.
In 2016, Xi inspected CCTV, and the big screen displayed: "CCTV belongs to the Party, absolute loyalty, please review." Ren Dapaou retorted on Weibo: "When did the People's Government change into the Party's Government? Is it funded by Party dues?" Four years later, he was sentenced to 18 years, so in the end, only a group of old men remained. The CCP has a tradition of elder politics; look at Hu Yaobang and Zhao Ziyang, who were both criticized and brought down by the elders. Jiang Zemin had Deng Xiaoping above him, and Hu Jintao had Jiang Zemin above him. By the time of Xi Jinping, Hu Jintao retired completely, and Lao Jiang passed away in 2022. There are no more elders left to restrict our Chairman Xi from being re-elected. President Xi is so lucky; I have scoured history and rarely seen a leader with such good fortune.
Look at the former members of the Politburo Standing Committee who are still alive: Li Lanqing is 94, Li Ruihuan is 92, Luo Gan is 91, Wu Guanzheng is 88, Zeng Qinghong is 87, Jia Qinglin is 86, Hu Jintao is 84, Wen Jiabao is 84, and so on. Note that none of these old men have troops in their hands! And apart from Hu Jintao, Wen Jiabao, Zeng Qinghong, Wang Qishan, etc., they don't have much political influence, and if they do, it's negative. If Zhang Gaoli were to jump out and rebel, people would immediately think of the female tennis player.
Importantly, rebellion is an impulsive industry. As one gets older, with the decline of testosterone, one can no longer rebel. Historically, except for Sima Yi, who launched the Gaoping Tombs Incident at 70, Li Shimin was only 28 during the Xuanwu Gate Incident, Zhao Kuangyin was 33 during the Chenqiao Mutiny, Zhu Di was 39 when he launched the Jingnan Campaign, Yang Jian usurped the Northern Zhou at 40, and Napoleon was only 30 during the Coup of 18 Brumaire. When you get old, you don't have the heart to rebel. Back then, Brother Tao was publicly dragged out on a global live broadcast, and his subordinates didn't even dare to see him off.
It is truly as the saying goes: "How much sorrow can one bear? Just like a song of... hey, the sun is nice today, today is Wednesday, what day is it?" So pay attention to the Fifth Plenary Session. In the 'Decision of the CCP Central Committee on Several Major Issues Concerning Strictly Governing the Party,' there is a very important sentence: maintain a high-pressure stance on punishing corruption, and absolutely allow no 'Iron-Cap Princes' or 'Iron Certificates of Merit.' The terms 'Iron-Cap Prince' and 'Iron Certificate of Merit' only appeared in commentaries by Party media and discipline inspection documents in the past; this is the first time they have been written into the formal decision of such a high-level meeting as a Central Plenary Session.
This is not written casually. Who is the Iron-Cap Prince? Is it someone surnamed Zeng, Wen, or Wang? One can imagine that once these words are spoken, there will be echoes. In summary, the gun, the pen, the purse, the knife, the pen, the wooden fish, and the old men have all been taken by President Xi. His subordinates are either the Grand Council, or eunuchs of the Directorate of Ceremonial, eunuchs in charge of the pen, and sycophantic slaves. You ask if Chairman Xi can be re-elected indefinitely? So some people pin their hopes on the variables of the leader's health. So, how is the leader's health exactly?
In the past two years, there have been more and more rumors about Xi Jinping's health. He suddenly missed the business forum at the BRICS summit in South Africa, sparking speculation. During his visit to Kyrgyzstan this year, he kept holding onto Peng Liyuan, and later the understanding CCTV directly edited out the process of him walking down the stairs. At this year's BRICS summit in New Delhi, he missed the dinner, leading The Wall Street Journal to say that it is difficult to explain why a leader of a major power would miss a dinner at such an important summit. When walking down the stairs during his visit to the US this year, he gripped the railing and Peng Liyuan's hand tightly, walking with difficulty. The biggest point of suspicion is the request for the White House to set up a special lounge that only Peng Liyuan could enter.
Canceling the scheduled working lunch with Trump, and before leaving the United States, as he walked up the steps of the National Archives, he either really couldn't hold on any longer, or Trump was considerate enough to give him an emergency helping hand, allowing him to catch his breath under that pretext. His legs and feet definitely can't do it anymore; there are also rumors that he had a stroke, but to be honest, when I listened to him, his vocal projection was quite full: "Respected Heads of State, Heads of Government, and Representatives of International Organizations, looking forward to the bright prospects of the development of the cause of the Party and the people."
Among 73-year-old Chinese men of the same age, this physical condition is considered quite good. With modern medical science changing with each passing day, the important thing is to use the resources of the entire nation to preserve the imperial dragon body of one person, changing organs at will, which is yet another advantage of our socialist system. Perhaps he can live to be 150 years old—living to 150 is an exaggeration. But if you want to hear the truth, it is not out of the question for this body to live another ten or twenty years.
Some friends say, couldn't something happen to him by accident? What if a myocardial infarction strikes suddenly one day? What if some young soldier goes crazy one day and suddenly lifts [his gun]? Sorry, this kind of extremely low-probability event does not belong to political analysis; it depends on the will of heaven. However, I can tell you that from the young soldiers to the officers, whether it is the investigation of their family backgrounds or the screening of their personal mental states, it is at the astronaut level. The kind of low-probability event you hope for is almost equivalent to stealing the Shenzhou rocket in broad daylight. In short, Xi Jinping ruling until 2035 or even 2040 is a high-probability event.
Calculate how old you will be by then. The fate of Chinese people over 50 is already sealed; Chinese people over 40 must pray for their own good fortune and try to have a peaceful old age; for those over 30, the stage of your life where you were sailing forward ambitiously has already been pressed with a stop button; for those in their teens and twenties, perhaps there is still some hope.
Some believe that he will attack Taiwan, and defeat will lead to his stepping down. Here I will share some military common sense: landing in Taiwan is even more difficult than the D-Day landings in Normandy. The narrowest part of the Taiwan Strait is over 130 kilometers wide, with treacherous sea conditions and only a few months in a year suitable for landing. During the Normandy landings, the wave height in the English Channel was about 1 meter, while the Taiwan Strait in winter is in the northeast monsoon period, with an average wave height exceeding 2 meters, and close to 3 meters in December, making the wave height two to three times that of the Normandy landings. There are only four or five beaches in Taiwan suitable for large-scale troop landings, and the shallow near-shore waters of the western coast mean ships can only unload cargo far away.
The eastern coast is almost entirely cliffs, and after coming ashore there are high mountains and rivers, making advancement difficult. Although the People's Liberation Army has invented large ramp-type barges which can solve some of the landing problems, the Normandy landing only required capturing a beachhead, whereas attacking Taiwan requires taking the entire island. Taiwan has 23 million people and 6 major cities, and once you attack inside, urban warfare is unavoidable. The Americans simulated 24 scenarios, most of which ended with the failure of the PLA's landing. Of course, some American military experts believe that the difficulty of attacking Taiwan has been severely overestimated, and the PLA holds an absolute overwhelming advantage in troop strength, possessing the capability for a large-scale landing.
However, the academic community generally agrees that even if it is captured at a heavy cost, governance will still be a difficult problem. Because Taiwan has been democratic for more than thirty years, according to surveys, 63.1% consider themselves Taiwanese, while only 2.5% consider themselves Chinese. This is different from Russia in Ukraine, where many residents in Crimea and the Donbas are ethnically Russian and already identify with Russia.
Meanwhile, Taiwan's two parties, which usually bicker constantly, showed an astonishingly consistent stance when facing the PLA's military attack on Taiwan. Needless to say about the Democratic Progressive Party, even the pro-Beijing Kuomintang Chairman Zheng Liwen unexpectedly stated: "If Taiwan does not declare independence and the mainland still uses force to clear Taiwan, we will definitely fight back." Ha, what kind of nonsense is that, Chairman Zheng? You were treated to a meal in vain, old friend. In summary, the PLA will not easily attack Taiwan; creating local friction in exchange for temporary domestic control is possible, but that is completely different from a comprehensive attack on Taiwan. Therefore, hoping that Chairman Xi will step down due to failure in a military attack on Taiwan is yet another extremely low-probability event. Then what is the high-probability event that would cause him to step down?
Some say, with the economic downturn, high unemployment rates, and the intensification of various social conflicts, will China see people take to the streets due to some accidental incident? Of course they will. In recent years, Foxconn workers took to the streets, delivery drivers took to the streets, people in Jiangyou took to the streets to seek justice for a bullied student, and even the masses in Chongqing took to the streets because scum abused animals. The future frequent occurrence of mass incidents is inevitable, but will these incidents disrupt Chairman Xi's grand cause of consecutive terms?
To be honest, without the linkage of the political arena, military, business community, workers, college students, and even farmers, under grid-managed surveillance, they will only be localized events. No matter how large a mass event is, can it compare to city-wide lockdowns? Look, one Dabai can seal off a building, three Dabais can seal off a residential compound, and two Japanese devil soldiers could occupy a county seat.
Some say, isn't there still the White Paper Movement? The White Paper Movement was very precious, and the youth are worthy of respect, but its scale and influence still cannot be compared to June 4, 1989. June 4 involved four or five hundred million people sweeping across the country; university students, factories, government agencies, and public institutions were all involved, even CCTV, the People's Daily, and the China Youth Daily took to the streets, and the military even dared to disobey orders. But the Party is too powerful; it broke them one by one, used the military to enter the city for brainwashing propaganda, had units gather people, monitored gatherings, and so on, and thus wiped you out. And modern high-tech is more favorable to the rulers at a certain stage.
Now with AI, big data, grid management, facial recognition, gait recognition, and pupil recognition, if your child goes missing, they can't find them, but if they want to arrest you for picking quarrels and provoking trouble, they will get you every time. Back then, Li Zicheng could face the government troops blade to blade and sword to sword, but this is no longer the era of cold weapons. Even if you get 20,000 people on the streets, you can't fight drones with kitchen knives, right? By the way, kitchen knives are also locked up.
Take the Wuchang Uprising, for example. Do you think it was achieved by those few fit young men in the New Army? No, it was only successful because of the collaboration of all social strata and interest groups, such as the New Army, the Beiyang Army, the Wuhan Chamber of Commerce, the Southern Chamber of Commerce, the Revolutionary Party, and even the princes of the Qing Dynasty. For instance, Tang Hualong, the speaker of the Hubei Provincial Consultative Council, held a militia with 2,000 German Mauser rifles; that weaponry was even more advanced than the Qing army. After the uprising, he sent a telegram to the whole country, strongly pushing for Li Yuanhong to serve as the military governor, which is why the revolutionary army was not treated as a band of rebels by the foreign powers.
Support from foreign powers is very important. How did the Taiping Heavenly Kingdom fail? The foreign powers did not support you, considering you rebels. And Tang Hualong's younger brother, Tang Xiangming, happened to be the first-class staff officer of the Qing fleet that came to suppress the uprising, while the commander-in-chief of the Qing fleet, Sa Zhenbing, happened to be Li Yuanhong's teacher. It was a coincidence that everyone was related. And if a revolution does not rely on everyone being relatives, fellow villagers, classmates, or shareholders, it is very difficult to succeed.
Later, after Li Yuanhong wrote to his teacher and Tang Xiangming maneuvered, the cannons of the Qing fleet turned, only firing fireworks into the sky over Wuchang. Otherwise, the New Army would have been wiped out before Yuan Shikai even arrived. Moreover, the businessmen of that time were very idealistic, unlike the current richest people who get nervous just by circumventing the Great Firewall. Back then, southern businessmen provided money and guns; Shanghai businessman Wang Yiting raised hundreds of thousands of yuan for the Revolutionary Party and even advanced 400,000 yuan in public bonds. The Shanghai Chamber of Commerce transported 500 rapid-fire guns to support the Revolutionary Party in recovering Nanjing. According to The Cambridge History of China, the entire Shanghai Chamber of Commerce donated 7 million taels of silver to the revolutionary army.
Speaking of those inside the system, the top scholar and industrialist Zhang Jian was originally a royalist, but after the Wuchang Uprising, he was among the first to turn to the republic, presiding over the North-South peace talks behind the scenes; it is said that he wrote the abdication edict for the Qing emperor. Can you imagine asking Teacher Wang Huning to write an abdication edict? Impossible, absolutely impossible.
To accomplish things, one must integrate all social strata and interest groups together. So who can integrate them together and unite them now? Only magic can defeat magic, and only President Xi can point the way. In fact, the future direction is hidden in the decisions of the Fifth Plenary Session. You see, the Fifth Plenary Session decided to further strictly govern the Party in every respect. As long as you are not pretending to be a foreigner, you know that what China is facing next is not reform and opening up, but political movements.
There is a key piece of content in the Xinhua News Agency's report on the Fifth Plenary Session. Someone asked, does strictly governing the Party in every respect hinder economic development, or does it guarantee and promote economic development? President Xi replied: "If it is said that strictly governing the Party has an impact on economic development, then this impact is positive, not negative." President Xi also used a long paragraph to explain a second time that strictly governing the Party corrects errors, combats corruption, protects a fair market environment, stimulates positive energy, and prevents damage to the fundamental interests of the people.
But as long as you understand China, you know that when the esteemed Xi Jinping answers whether "strictly governing the Party has anything to do with hindering economic development," what, then it must have something to do with it. As long as you are not pretending to be a foreigner, you know that further state advancement and private retreat, and high-pressure politics are already the inevitability of the future. As long as the underlying logic remains unchanged, China will fall into a vicious cycle of anti-corruption.
The former Soviet Union loved anti-corruption; as soon as Andropov came to power, he removed the Minister of Internal Affairs, Shchelokov, on charges of corruption. Iran also loves anti-corruption; Khamenei established a special court for economic crimes specifically to crack down on corruption. Venezuela also loves anti-corruption; Maduro arrested one batch of officials after another, and in the end, the currency was not even as good as toilet paper. North Korea's anti-corruption is even more ruthless; Kim Jong-un executed his uncle Jang Song-thaek, and an important charge was economic corruption. You must know that the rule for dictators is that because power does not come from elections but from the division of spoils, corruption inevitably becomes the driving force for the operation of power.
However, corruption will destroy the economy and affect the dictator's rule, so the dictator must fight corruption and can only choose selective anti-corruption, leading to moral decay, an increasingly worsening economy, and in the end, it is inevitable that the whole population becomes the cost. Therefore, in the future, there will be anti-corruption in the officialdom every day, the economy will be a mess, movements will follow one after another, and the people will suffer more and more.
Look, in the 2027 national civil service exam, tax personnel accounted for 67.28%; for every three civil servants, two are tax personnel. What does the state want to do? I don't need to remind you, right? The state is out of money, and even the landlord's family has no surplus grain. Previously, it targeted the rich; in the future, it will target the middle class and white-collar workers; and further down the line, it will target residents, farmers, and the flexible workforce. No one can be spared.
I want to tell you that the ruling class has a logic: if you cannot provide emotional value, then they will fucking make you provide nutritional value. And when society is pushed to this point, it is the best opportunity for all social strata and interest groups to integrate and unite. Looking across China, who can achieve this? The Fifth Plenary Session is fucking awesome!
Will President Xi really stay in power permanently? In fact, he is not the kind of irresponsible person like Louis XV who said, "After me, the flood." He possesses an extremely strong sense of morality and mission; in this regard, he and Wang Mang are like twin brothers, both being simple and humble in their youth.
"The Book of Han" says Wang Mang "lowered himself to be respectful and frugal," meaning he could set aside the status of a relative of the emperor, treat others with respect, and live a frugal life. The Wang family descendants all wore luxurious clothing, only Wang Mang wore coarse cloth, looking just like a poor scholar. And Xi Jinping, as a high-ranking official's son, went to Liangjiahe to work in the countryside at the age of 15, living in cave dwellings, eating coarse grains, wearing coarse clothes, getting fleas on his body, and carrying a hoe to work in the fields, completely different from those educated youth who came from Beijing.
Wang Mang was charitable, giving away his carriages, horses, and fur coats to his guests until nothing was left at home. Xi Jinping is the same. According to the recollection of educated youth Lei Pingsheng, one day they went to a market and met an old beggar who claimed to be Xi Zhongxun's former guard—whether it was true or not, no one knows. But when Xi Jinping saw this old man who had begged all the way from Mizhi, ragged and tattered, he felt deeply unbearable in his heart, so he took out all the money and food coupons he had, and even took off his coat and gave it to the old man. As a result, he didn't have money to buy what he wanted that day.
Wang Mang did things for the poor, building 200 houses in Chang'an specifically to settle commoners. And when Xi Jinping was in Ningde, seeing more than 13,000 boat-dwelling households, old and young, crowded on boats, and some still living in thatched huts on the mountains, he also felt deeply unbearable. Xi Jinping immediately held an on-site meeting in Fu'an, and the next year, tens of thousands of people moved into new homes. To help farmers get rich, he even paid out of his own pocket to go to Sichuan to learn how to build biogas digesters. The day he returned and poked the guide pipe, the biogas sprayed out with a puff, splashing feces all over his face, a face full of auspiciousness. That gas guide pipe was blocked, and when it was finally poked open, it splashed feces all over my face, my face was full of feces. But he lit the first biogas lamp on the Loess Plateau, breaking the inherent saying that biogas could not cross the Qinling Mountains, not only allowing villagers to use biogas lamps and solving the heating problem, but also making the crops irrigated with biogas slurry grow well and yield high.
When Wang Mang became the Da Sima (Grand Marshal), his wife would come out to entertain guests wearing short, coarse cloth skirts, and guests even thought she was a servant or nanny. And when the TV station came to interview Peng Liyuan, she was holding a child just like a housewife, washing vegetables, stir-frying, and mopping the floor, and even personally served dishes to the table when it was time to eat. If it weren't for that celebrity face everyone recognizes, she would be just an ordinary housewife!
Whenever there was a disaster year, Wang Mang only ate vegetarian food, and the Empress Dowager Wang Zhengjun had to issue a special edict for him to eat meat on time to cherish his health. Xi Jinping is the same. He braved the bitter cold of more than ten degrees below zero to visit disaster-stricken people in Hebei, and his dinner could only be home-cooked dishes, four dishes: ordinary braised vegetables, garlic-sautéed crown daisy, and he specifically requested that no alcohol be served, especially not Guizhou Moutai. In one disaster year, Wang Mang submitted a petition to donate one million in cash and more than 30 qing of land to relieve disaster victims, and more than 230 officials followed suit by donating land and houses. President Xi is the same. When the COVID-19 pandemic broke out, President Xi took the lead in donating, and other officials followed suit, with party officials across the country donating a total of 11.63 billion yuan.
Their rise to power is also shockingly similar. Before Da Sima Wang Gen retired due to illness, he witnessed Wang Mang's various acts of benevolence, humility, and low-key behavior, and recommended him to succeed his position. And in 2007, before Zeng Qinghong retired, he deeply felt that Xi Jinping was humble, low-key, honest, and benevolent, and recommended Xi Jinping to Jiang Zemin as his successor. You see, both Wang Mang and President Xi ascended to the throne with humility, low-key, honesty, and benevolence, and it was only after the fact that people discovered it, and by the time they discovered it, it was already too late to turn back. After Wang Mang usurped the throne and demanded the Imperial Jade Seal, Empress Dowager Wang Zhengjun cursed Wang Mang: "You are worse than a pig or a dog!" She threw the Imperial Jade Seal in anger, which caused it to lose a corner. The history of Chinese emperors has had a flaw ever since. And Jiang Zemin and Zeng Qinghong later witnessed their own people being taken down by Xi one by one, and Hu Jintao, who supported Xi's rise with a "naked retirement," being publicly escorted out during a global live broadcast. Whether it was Jiang Zemin, Zeng Qinghong, or Hu Jintao, they had no choice but to swallow their broken teeth, treating it as calcium supplementation in their old age.
The two also share another similarity: Wang Mang, in order to eliminate the wealth gap and combat land annexation, declared all land in the world to be state-owned, known as "Wang Tian"; similarly, Xi Jinping proposed "common prosperity" and the elimination of the wealth gap, allowing state-owned enterprises to grow larger and pushing the "state advances, private sector retreats" policy, which is the "Chinese Dream." Wang Mang nationalized salt and iron, recklessly reformed the currency system, and established government-run markets, leaving the people in misery. Xi Jinping purged the market, and with the "national team" entering the field, hundreds of industries withered. Wang Mang fought corruption, and Xi Jinping's anti-corruption campaign has always been "on the road." Wang Mang wanted to return to the golden age of the Duke of Zhou, and Chairman Xi wants to restore the "great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation"; both changed policies three times a day, and both treated the economy as something that could be reshaped by personal will—what the common people call "governing a large country is like flipping a pancake." People always love to say that Wang Mang was a socialist who traveled back to the Han Dynasty from the future, but who is to say that Chairman Xi isn't Wang Mang, who traveled from two thousand years ago to the present?
Because of suspicion, rebellion, and various other reasons, Wang Mang never successfully resolved the issue of a successor before his death. As for Chairman Xi, he is already 73, and from Sun Zhengcai and Hu Chunhua to Chen Min'er, the succession has habitually miscarried. But no matter how long a dictator rules, they must arrange a successor. If so many enemies are not dealt with properly, a trusted successor will surely overturn everything after the dictator dies. There is a dictator's dilemma in this world: if you designate a successor, officials will look and think, "Oh, I need to align myself with the future emperor," and pick a side. The successor quickly becomes a secondary center of power, and the emperor's power is naturally diluted.
Back then, Mao let Liu Shaoqi preside over the work, but soon discovered, "Oh, everyone has run over to Liu Shaoqi's side," and had to launch the Cultural Revolution to turn the situation around. But the dictator's dilemma is that if you don't designate a successor, you are likely to be liquidated after death. For example, Stalin did not designate a successor, and after Khrushchev came to power, he completely denounced Stalin, even moving Stalin's remains out of Lenin's Mausoleum. So, has Chairman Xi actually designated a successor? How awkward!
He cannot publicly designate a successor, which would form a new power center and dilute his own power, yet he must select a successor to avoid being liquidated after death; he also cannot hide the successor away and designate them quietly, because the successor needs a process to win over the public and cultivate their own political influence. Otherwise, if they are secretly installed, they can easily be overthrown by political rivals, and Chairman Xi would still be in danger of being liquidated.
Therefore, dictators can never find a safe way to transfer power, unlike democratic elections where people bicker and then step down when the time comes, and a newcomer takes over. Democratic systems are not perfect, but they have basic institutional guarantees; while a dictator's succession process is fraught with terror and murderous intent, and they might even lose their own lives in the process. Chairman Xi will certainly designate a successor, and he will have to make public who that successor is, but if he designates them too early, they become Liu Shaoqi, and if too late, they become Hua Guofeng; if they are capable, they become Lin Biao, and if they are incompetent, they become Wang Hongwen.
When will Chairman Xi announce his successor? Look, Mao Zedong only let Hua Guofeng become Vice Premier and Minister of Public Security a year before he died; Emperor Wu of Han only named Liu Fuling as crown prince less than two days before his death; Kangxi was about to kick the bucket, and only on his deathbed did he pass the throne to Yongzheng, with the edict hidden behind the "Zhengda Guangming" plaque. In fact, it was not "upright and bright" at all; secretly installing a crown prince is like being a thief. This is the crisis, the dilemma, and the awkwardness of a dictator.
So the conclusion is that, barring an accident, it is impossible for Chairman Xi to publicly designate a successor in the coming years, because it would endanger his power. Some say, won't naming a successor so late cause a backlash from the public and the sycophantic intellectuals? Is public opinion important? It is not. Yale political science professor Milan Svolik once wrote a famous book, "The Politics of Authoritarian Rule," which counted 303 dictators who left office irregularly between 1946 and 2008. Only 32 were overthrown by popular uprisings, less than one in ten.
Of these 303 dictators who left office irregularly, 205 were ousted by people within the ruling group, accounting for more than two-thirds. Therefore, what a dictator really needs to guard against is not the people on the street, but the underlings in the conference room.
A famous example is the Angolan dictator José Eduardo dos Santos, who ruled for 38 years and thought his regime was secure. In 2016, he carefully designated a successor and ruled from behind the curtain. Unexpectedly, the successor had long since formed an alliance with key military generals. As soon as he took office, he removed dos Santos's daughter from her position as chair of the state oil company, sentenced his son to five years in prison, and purged the old subordinates dos Santos had left in the military and intelligence systems. In the end, dos Santos had to flee to Spain and died in a foreign land. The successor is often the person who stabs you in the back.
And then there is Nazarbayev of Kazakhstan, who ruled for nearly 30 years and stepped down in 2019 to hand power to his most trusted successor. Upon taking office, this successor renamed the capital city to Nur-Sultan, which is Nazarbayev's first name. This move was a gesture of loyalty to his old leader and a public display of affection to the world. But as everyone knows, public displays of affection often lead to a quick demise. A year later, this successor first removed Nazarbayev's eldest daughter from her position as Speaker of the Senate, and then took the opportunity to purge Nazarbayev's loyalists. The century-old dilemma facing every dictator is: you never know whether you should trust the loyal successor standing right in front of you.
Is it Li Qiang, Cai Qi, Ding Xuexiang, or some kid hidden among the alternate members? Even more dramatic is the case of Tunisia's Bourguiba, who ruled as a dictator for 31 years and carefully selected his most trusted aide, Ben Ali, as his successor. But one night, just over a month later, Ben Ali summoned seven doctors to the Ministry of the Interior and forced them to sign a statement certifying that the old leader was mentally incapacitated and unable to perform his duties. When one doctor refused, Ben Ali slammed the table and shouted, "I'm counting to three!" The doctor immediately caved. Ever since I got this mental illness, my mental state has improved so much. The next day, the old leader was ousted and placed under house arrest in a large mansion until his death.
From the various cases above, we can draw the following conclusions: First, a Chairman Xi with such a sense of mission will not resign; he will continue to rule, no, continue to serve the people until the very end of his life. Second, in this process, he will carefully observe and select the most loyal successor to avoid the examples of being overthrown mentioned above.
All the stories you see above have been read by the Head of State. Third, in the long years to come, you must face reality, abandon illusions, exercise your body, and keep a cheerful mood so that you can quietly watch how the Head of State serves the people. Fourth, I always believe in providence, and so-called providence is the will of every individual. Meeting adjourned.