What will be the final outcome for Xi Jinping?

Presented by Hu Liren, this video analyzes Xi Jinping's political outcome and future trajectory from a macro perspective. The video points out that Xi Jinping's authoritarian rule has offended second-generation Red and military elites within the party who possess armed forces and deep roots, making it ultimately difficult for him to prevail in internal party struggles. The author speculates that Xi Jinping's best possible outcome might be exiled to North Korea following Hua Guofeng's precedent, while Hu Chunhua from the Communist Youth League faction might take over power in the future. The video also explores the possibility of China completely repudiating Mao Zedong and implementing major political reforms in the future.

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Hello, audience friends! In this episode, I'd like to chat with you about how I've been reading fortunes for Xi Jinping, looking at what his ultimate end will be. I am reasoning from a broad, macro perspective. Right now, Xi Jinping is just like playing chess: how many resources do I have? Just like playing Chinese chess, hey, how much military force do you still have? How much military force do I still have, right? How much capability do you have? How much capability do I have? It is about setting parameters from all aspects to deduce where Xi Jinping is very likely to end up in the future.

Look, after the Fifth Plenary Session, the things Xi Jinping put out became much more low-key, it can be said. Before the Fifth Plenary Session, he was always alone, always by himself. Xi Jinping's thought, Marxism-Leninism. Xi Jinping Thought—he was constantly grafting things onto Xi Jinping's thought, placing himself on the throne of the CCP, the throne of the CCP. It was a strategy set up through personality cult and establishing the image of a great leader, setting his propaganda strategy in a way similar to Mao back then. Everyone had the Xuexi Qiangguo app on their phones. In fact, these Xuexi Qiangguo apps were all about studying Xi Jinping's thought. He virtually denied everything, except holding up Marxism's memorial tablet, holding that tablet, right?

After the Fifth Plenum, if you look at it again, because the internal party struggles involved are so severe, meaning that more and more people are opposing him. Why do I say this? I have always been saying that as a dictator, what is his ultimate end? It is a dead end. Because your dictatorship—the more extreme your dictatorship becomes, the more people you offend, and the more dictatorial you are, the more dangerous it is for others. Everyone can understand this: when you become a king, a king of humanity, then everyone will become your opponent. You are essentially fighting against all of humanity single-handedly. Everyone should know that these people inside the Communist Party inherently possess murderous intentions. If you look at how the Communist Party was originally formed and composed, you would know that they were all bandits, all murderous demons. Look at the Communist Party; it killed its way all through its history, hiding out in Yan'an until the end of the War of Resistance, when it knew the Kuomintang was depleted of strength, and then it reached out. At that time, Russia was very strong, with formidable military power, the Soviet Union. Look at the banner it held up as well; back then it borrowed the banner of the Soviets. During the Zunyi Conference in the 1930s, it displayed the Soviet banner, calling itself a Soviet regime, identical to the Soviet naming. 'Soviet' actually means a council or parliament, representing democracy in concept. But the term 'Soviet' came directly from the Soviet Union. How could the Chinese people know what 'Soviet' meant? They didn't know. He grafted it. Then after 1949, he smashed this Soviet banner—smashed it—because he wanted to establish his own People's Republic of China, so he gradually dropped the 'Soviet' title.

Then you tell me, among those currently within the the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), many of these families—hundreds of families—have weathered bloody storms. In other words, when the CCP was seizing power, these people all put in the effort, risked their lives, and originated as bandits. Therefore, you say Xi Jinping wants to establish a dictatorship within the CCP; who are his opponents? You see, ordinary people can be manipulated by him at will, and he can use the police (Public Security) and military police to suppress them, but these people inside the CCP are willing to risk their lives, and their descendants are the same; they cannot be manipulated at will. Therefore, once Xi Jinping ascends the throne and enters the path of dictatorship, he must first get past this hurdle, which is extremely difficult to clear because they all hold the gun barrels. How do you get past that? Their deployment has been laid out for decades, and they have their own internal rules. When you, Xi Jinping, came to power back then, it was also with their assistance. Of course, the same goes for your stepping down. Therefore, after the Fifth Plenary Session, or rather before the Fifth Plenary Session, Xi Jinping had actually faced major challenges, and these major challenges had already been laid out in the open. This is also why Hu Chunhua was suddenly released after being controlled by him. Of course, although Hu Chunhua has been released now, he remains the subject of relatively tight surveillance. Naturally, all these people inside the CCP are like this. Now, as Xi Jinping faces mounting resistance and has offended the most difficult group of people to deal with, he needs an exit strategy. Right now, as I have always said, it is a life-or-death struggle. He swallows up whoever he can conquer, and if he cannot conquer them, he will back down himself. Look at promoting Zhang Shengmin; actually, that is a path for stepping down from the Central Military Commission. In the future, it is very likely that Xi Jinping is currently finding an exit strategy for himself. For example, for some time previously, Li Qiang had completely vanished from the public eye, and then about a month ago, Li Qiang's news appeared every single day on the front page of Xinhua News Agency, sometimes even two or three times a day, which also proved that Li Qiang was gradually surfacing. Therefore, many media outlets are saying—and by media I mean major media outlets, not self-media, but huge media outlets including the BBC, major media outlets whose political commentators are all saying—that Li Qiang might succeed to the position of President. That is to say, Li Qiang taking over as President is one of his backup options. The second backup option might be Zhang Shengmin in the military. He will not hand over major military power to outsiders, and Zhang Shengmin is relatively safe for him. Although Zhang Shengmin does not approve of his current approach and also faces pressure, Xi Jinping suddenly promoted Zhang Shengmin to a member of the Politburo, entering the roster of twenty-odd people—Zhang Shengmin was not one previously—thus succeeding Zhang Youxia's position and entering the roster. This roster, I feel, is a step down for himself, just in case he cannot defeat the others. Currently, Xi Jinping might still be negotiating with these anti-Xi factions: what conditions I offer, then you let me continue for a while longer, let me continue to govern. The reason is very simple, and the reason is that he wants to purge all these local elements within the party and maintain the purity of the CCP. Look at how he has brought out the Long March and the Yan'an spirit; what actually is this? This is telling those in the anti-Xi faction that the will of our parents in the past, the strategy of our parents in the past was consistent, and we should be united. Now that we are causing division, of course he also bears some responsibility, but what is most important? The most important thing is that outsiders are impacting our CCP, making the power of our CCP smaller and smaller. In other words, after China's economy boomed, high economic growth weakened the Party, and as economic achievements grew stronger, the Party grew weaker. He believes that Deng Xiaoping's line is completely wrong, meaning that if Deng Xiaoping's line continues to be followed, the CCP might not be able to survive. Therefore, his narrative to the princelings and military descendants now is this: we must still maintain the absolute leadership of the CCP. What Xi Jinping is doing right now is just this, but while doing so, he did not consider these princelings and military descendants, because once they are struck down, it will touch everyone's cheese.

So for Xi Jinping now, it has become a situation where everyone believes Xi Jinping, you are engaging in a dictatorship right now, just like Mao did. If you think about it, if you follow Mao's path, then what our parents experienced will be the exact same as our future experiences. They all watched their own families get destroyed one by one in the past, seeing how their parents were tortured. Some were even tortured to death, just like Liu Yuan—his father Liu Shaoqi was tortured to death, starved to death alive. Can you imagine when Liu Shaoqi died, his whole body was just bones, hanging there like a skeleton, a mere frame of bones. Everyone has seen that photo of Liu Shaoqi back then; there are photos on the internet of Liu Shaoqi when he died. He himself was a very thin person to begin with. Look at Wang Guangmei back then, forced to wear a huge flower hat, being publicly denounced, and her hair was shaved into a "yin-yang head." Therefore, these people do not want to see the tragedy of their own parents repeated on themselves, which is why they stepped forward to fight back.

I think regarding Xi Jinping's ultimate fate, I believe Xi Jinping will definitely be unable to defeat this group of opponents, because they form a large collective. Are there any second-generation reds around Xi Jinping now? Are there any second-generation military elites? There are no second-generation reds or second-generation military elites. Around Xi Jinping, they are all his own people, people he cultivated later on, and these people have no foundation whatsoever inside the Communist Party. Would you say Li Qiang has a foundation? Would you say Li Xi has a foundation? Would you say Cai Qi has a foundation? None of them have any foundation at all, and this is the weak spot of his entire team. In contrast, these second-generation reds and second-generation military elites have deep roots inside the Communist Party, especially deep roots in the military. Therefore, I believe that once a move is made, Xi Jinping will definitely be no match for them.

So what will ultimately be Xi Jinping's future outcome? The best outcome would be the same as Hua Guofeng's. It is very likely that Xi Jinping will take a path in the future similar to Hua Guofeng's—stepping down under the pretext of seeking medical treatment. He won't even be able to stay in China anymore, because inside China he has already become the enemy of the entire nation. What will he end up like in the end? The path he ultimately takes might be going to North Korea, negotiating with Kim Jong Un, saying let's just have Xi Jinping and his wife come to your place to recuperate, and then quietly sending him abroad to that place, where he wouldn't be able to stir up any trouble. Xi Jinping himself can't stir up trouble on his own; it was only because everyone propped him up that he became the commander of the three armed forces and the party chairman. Some say he might retain his position as Chairman of the Central Military Commission in the future, but I think the probability of him retaining the CMC chairmanship is almost zero, because the military commission is the hardest hurdle for him to pass. Do you think he can keep the chairmanship? He absolutely cannot. It is already an incredible achievement if he can just save his own life. So in the future, Xi Jinping is very likely to take this path—going to North Korea into a state of semi-exile. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) wouldn't move against him further, because the CCP also needs to save face when dealing with its internal affairs, just like Deng Xiaoping treated Hua Guofeng back then, knowing you can no longer stir up any trouble, so forget it. You say where you want to go for retirement, fine, we'll send you there. Hua Guofeng stayed in North Korea for a long time and was only allowed to return home later when he was very old. People saw later that Jiang Zemin went to visit him, and in his later years he stayed at the 301 Hospital in Beijing. So this would be the best final destination for Xi Jinping in the future—going there. Once he goes there, everyone will enjoy peace and order under heaven. I think that for the future governance of the CCP, having people from the Youth League Faction in power would be safer. In other words, I believe the possibility of Hu Chunhua taking over is still very high. This person should be considered someone who is relatively recognized by all the high-level officials within the Communist Party. Of course, just like Hu Chunhua stepping up, he has no powerful background, similar to Hu Jintao in the past, who also had no background and came from the countryside. Hu Jintao's family were merchants, originally rising from Anhui. Rising from there—that is, his previous generation or the one before that, perhaps his grandfather's or great-grandfather's generation—rising in Anhui, near Huangshan, backed by Lin'an. I have been to his ancestral home and visited his family ancestral hall. He rose in Anhui, and after rising there, because they were Huizhou merchants in the tea business, they later went to Jiangsu, to Taixing and Taizhou. Next to Taixing there is a place called Jiangyan. Driving from Taixing to Jiangyan takes only about twenty minutes, very close, like a small satellite town. Later it became Jiangyan City. Later they operated as tea merchants there, but they were outside tea merchants and were marginalized there at that time. Hu Jintao was born in that place. His ancestral hall is at his ancestral home, where his family accumulated its foundation in Anhui. Anhui's place of origin is actually very good, a place of scholars and literati. You see, it was very unfair that Anhui was delineated like that in the past. Its Huizhou culture actually influenced the entire Jiangnan culture. Look at the Huizhou-style architecture we usually see; many Jiangnan buildings in China are actually the heritage of Huizhou-style architecture. Huizhou-style architecture is the true ancestor of Jiangnan architecture. So in the past, if you want to study Hu Jingtao—I have been to his ancestral home—Hu Jintao really came from the most ordinary family background, just small merchants who opened a tea shop, a very simple tea shop. Hu Jintao was originally in that place, but later he was unwilling to return to his hometown of Jiangyan, because in Jiangyan his family used to be bullied. The people in that area were quite fierce, what Shanghai people call Northern Jiangsu people, and the people there were relatively tough and aggressive. But in Hu Jintao's family, you see Hu Jintao later studied at Taizhou High School, and because he did very well in his studies, he later got admitted through exams; he was a talented scholar.

So Hu Chunhua is actually somewhat similar to him, a peasant child from a rural family. He was the youngest son, with older brothers and sisters taking good care of him, so he is quite a sensible person. Therefore, I think if Hu Chunhua were to become the party chairman or the president of the state, his overall future approach to the country's policies, that is, the country's politics, should move in a relatively relaxed, liberal, and democratic direction. However, it cannot be ruled out that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) might carry out major political reforms. Because of Xi Jinping's appearance, this reform might go even deeper than Deng Xiaoping's—deeper than Deng's era. It might completely denounce Mao, completely denounce Mao, because everyone has already suffered. If Mao's memorial tablet is still there, once it's brought out and smashed, Mao Zedong might be completely repudiated, and China might truly experience a major transformation, giving the country hope again. Then everyone, every family will start to feel a sense of security. Otherwise, everyone will just be waiting in uncertainty. If things continue like this in the future—with one Xi today, another Xi tomorrow, and yet another Xi ten or twenty years later—what will you do? Nobody will be able to handle the fallout. Therefore, as long as it is for the security of this country, the regime, and democracy, there is only one way forward for China: to completely repudiate Mao and overthrow Mao. Only under such circumstances will this country be safe. As for Xi Jinping in the future, in all high probability, there is almost zero chance he could go into exile in another country, except for one place—North Korea, just like Hua Guofeng back then. He would go there, and these people wouldn't touch him, as long as his family's overseas wealth is surrendered and brought back. In the end, Xi Jinping's future will amount to nothing. Saving his life might be the best possible outcome for him. If it's a bad outcome, it would be like Mao's, where his family would be entirely purged in the future. After Xi Jinping steps down, people like Cai Qi won't even be qualified to go to North Korea. So what will happen to these people? They will definitely face a complete purge within the Communist Party in the future because they are guilty. Xi Jinping might escape it, because his identity is different from theirs—after all, he is a second-generation Red, so it's different. Alright, that's all for this topic today. Thank you all for watching, and see you in the next topic.