The Likelihood of Xi Jinping Stepping Down Within Six Months Is Growing!

This episode mainly analyzes the situation and power crisis of Xi Jinping during the Fifth Plenary Session of the 20th CCP Central Committee. Host Hu Liren points out that anti-Xi sentiment within the CCP is running high. The number of officials placed on file for investigation and arrest in the first and second halves of this year is massive. As Xi Jinping orders comprehensive and strict governance of the Party and frantically arrests officials, internal conflicts within the Party have completely intensified. The program predicts that there is a high probability that Xi Jinping will step down within the next six months. If he forces a continuation of his term, he will face nationwide resistance, or even be liquidated from within the system or face a fate similar to that of Ceaușescu. It also reviews the historical comparison between the Deng Xiaoping era and the house arrest of Jiang Zemin.

Video link:

Full text:

Hello, viewers! For the past two days, I have been counting down, trying to figure out when Xi Jinping will step down. Actually, Xi Jinping shouldn't have held this Fifth Plenary Session of the 20th CCP Central Committee, or it should have been postponed. Do you know why? Because Xi Jinping's own health—his current health simply cannot handle it. If intense arguments were to break out at the meeting, arguments mean confrontation, and he would struggle to physically sustain it. What is the current situation? Everyone has already turned against each other; the internal factions of the CCP have already had a falling out.

Do you know that last year, I once said, I said at the beginning of last year, that at least one million officials would be arrested this year. I remember after I said this, some media questioned me, saying, "Hu Liren, you said one million?" Last year, the CCP's own Central Commission for Discipline Inspection announced that they had investigated over one million and arrested over 900,000. Let me show you some data, look at the data, this is today, the data released by Xinhua News Agency today. The data released by Xinhua News Agency today shows that in the first half of this year, a total of approximately—everyone look—in the first half of this year, the national discipline inspection and supervision organs filed 538,000 cases. You must know that one filed case involves at least one person, and some even involve many people.

It is a case. If it is a corruption case, you arrest one person, and if this person is corrupt, there might be people around him who are also corrupt. When you are investigating a certain case, it might not involve just one person; it might involve several. If you think about it this way, you will understand. This is today, everyone look, it is the news from the 27th, October 27th, the news from October 27th. Over 530,000 cases in half a year. Would you say what I said is true? Is it true? Who told me this data? This data came from someone who escaped. A former deputy minister of the Organization Department of the CCP Central Committee, he is now abroad, he escaped, and he told me. He told me last year that over one million were arrested last year.

Think about it, how many people are going to be arrested this year? There is some data released by the media today, showing that in the past nine months, roughly over 600,000 officials have been arrested—690,000 or 680,000. These are the ones where cases have been officially filed, and the actual number is far beyond that. That is one point. Second, Xi Jinping has now suddenly ordered a comprehensive party cleanup, strictly governing the party in an all-round way, fully and strictly governing the party. From now until December, there are only a little over two months left. Do you know what a period of just over two months means? It might even exceed the number of arrests from the first nine months, because right now within the Communist Party, once a red-header document comes down from the top, everyone starts arresting people randomly. It is just like what Mao did back then, just like a political campaign, right?

Once this target is set, once this goal comes out, things within the Communist Party are often like this: a certain percentage, a comprehensive purge, a total cleanup. After the cleanup, the people beneath those red lines have to fulfill quotas. If you do not fulfill your quota, you will step down, and the Communist Party will hold you accountable. What does that mean? It means frantic arrests, arbitrary arrests. From now until December, frantic arrests. In this situation, do you think anyone will resist? They will certainly resist, definitely resist. I believe that if Xi Jinping wins this time and walks out of the Fifth Plenary Session hall with the posture of a victor, then I think it is very likely that an extremely severe conflict will erupt across the entire country. And who is behind this upcoming conflict and major event? Those officials are behind it. It is very likely that many officials will organize themselves. Different factions and direct lineages within the Communist Party will organize. Once organized, first come the universities and college students—look, the White Paper Movement was initiated by college students. Once the students rise up, mass mobilization on the streets becomes formidable. Once the masses take to the streets, this storm will very likely involve the military.

As for the current military, in fact, I think they are still waiting. Waiting for what? Waiting for the vigorous development of the entire social movement. Once it rises up, they will have a pretext. The military command above—the Central Military Commission, the General Office of the CCP Central Committee, and the Central Military Commission—will surely issue instructions that we must go suppress it. Often, look at what was suppressed in Beijing back then: the police simply could not suppress it; the police completely lacked that capability. If the police were to go against ordinary people, the police would be beaten to death by the public. That is one aspect. Second, everyone should know that police officers are often not so easily deployed to take action. Do you know why police officers are not easily deployed? Police officers are usually ordinary people whose homes are located right nearby, and they are also afraid of being held accountable later. For example, let me give you an example: if you are a local community police officer, where do you live? Everyone will find out immediately. The troops are different; once the troops go into action, when you look for the person holding a gun pointing at ordinary people, you simply cannot find them. Military units are often like this: out-of-town soldiers are very numerous, while local soldiers are very few. What kind of soldiers are local soldiers? Firefighters are more common, whereas regular soldiers are often stationed far from their home towns. Once you leave your city, you cannot find those people anymore. These people are not afraid of future accountability, which is why when you look at the military during June Fourth, was it not the troops who went in to attack?

Well, there is another point: back then, within the military headquarters, during June Fourth, there was actually a military commander named Xu Qinxian. This person, Xu Qinxian, was a corps commander or something at the time, who refused orders—refused the orders to massacre. Later, this person was imprisoned, and after being released, he died a few years ago. This person was like a hero; he would rather serve a prison sentence than open fire on the students. Does everyone remember this person? Just look it up online and you will know. I think many people should know this person named Xu Qinxian, who seemed to be a corps commander or something holding a very high rank, and this had a huge impact. As far as I know, at that time, it was not just him; there were also several other people who did not support that action. Just think, at that time, there were people who did not support it. Now, look at Xi Jinping compared to how Deng Xiaoping was during the early period of reform and opening up—what was he like? In the hearts of ordinary people, he existed almost like a god, does everyone remember? The Southern Tour speeches and all that? Starting from the 1980s, the early 1980s, Deng Xiaoping had been packaging himself, and he genuinely allowed ordinary people to start having food to eat. With food on the table, everyone saw hope. It can be said that Deng Xiaoping was everyone's hope at that time, and the overall social situation back then was extremely open. That is to say, ordinary people—look at how many literary works and books there were back then, works and books that were actually scolding the Communist Party and reflecting on the history of that generation. So that period was extremely open, and Deng Xiaoping was very open-minded at the time.

And now when you look at Deng, the image that Deng Xiaoping had in the minds of ordinary people back then is completely different from the image Xi Jinping has among ordinary people now, completely different. Xi Jinping has now become a street rat, with everyone opposing him, everyone opposing him. You cannot dig up the history of this person, these past ten-plus years of history cannot be uncovered; once uncovered, the entire society will truly rise in revolt. Now, over the past two days, there was an article online about fourteen universities joining together to write an open letter. Some people say this letter is fake, we won't discuss whether it is true or false, and I am not talking about its authenticity. But having read this letter, it was written very objectively. Regardless of whether it is true or false, it actually reflects the expectations in modern China, this expectation, and it articulates the aspirations of the overwhelming majority of people. I think this is precisely the importance of this letter. This letter is now circulating everywhere, circulating on the international internet, and I believe it has also circulated domestically. What kind of anti-Xi public opinion foundation is this? Xi Jinping has reached this point.

He has reached the point where, in the China of today under Xi Jinping, only if Xi Jinping steps down will this country perhaps avoid major chaos. If Xi Jinping does not step down, what awaits the Chinese Communist Party, and what awaits him, is a nationwide movement against Xi and against the CCP. Then there will truly be major chaos, truly major chaos. The more you, Xi Jinping, insist on resorting to repression, then I think his demise will come quickly, his demise will come quickly. It is truly very likely that he will immediately become like Ceausescu, immediately become like Ceausescu, and very likely be arrested immediately—moreover, those who arrest him are likely to be those around him, those around him, because the people around him are not willing to be buried along with him. So, six months. Now Xi Jinping has six—why do I say six months? Because next March, actually less than six months away, the 21st National Congress will decide. The 21st National Congress will decide whether Xi Jinping will serve another term. I think his chances of serving another term are extremely slim. If he tries to force his way through by sheer bullying, what awaits him is a mighty torrent sweeping across China that will overwhelm him, bury him, and even bury the CCP. Then, I tell you, the entire country will suddenly fracture, just like the Soviet Union back then, just like the Soviet Union back then. At that time, you won't even need external forces; if external forces were to give another push, it would be over, Xi Jinping would be completely finished. So this is how it is now: if Xi Jinping steps down now, there might still be some safety for him, and safety for his family, and someone might spare him, might spare him. But once he decides to force his way through by bullying, acting as an enemy of the people, an enemy of the entire country, and practicing dictatorship, then I think he won't even have the hope or the chance of survival.

That is, a period of six months, six months is—you see, once this comes out this time, something big is definitely going to happen. From now until the months ahead, because this is about him frantically rounding people up, during this period of frantic roundups, why is he doing this? He wants to sweep away all the people who would oppose him at next year's 21st National Congress; he wants to completely purge these people. Once purged, he will take office directly next year at the 21st National Congress with no one left to oppose him. Then just think, how many people does he have to arrest? Right now, everyone inside the CCP opposes him; even if they praise him verbally, they oppose him in their hearts. Let me put it this way with another analogy. Suppose you are in a company as the general manager, as the chairman of the board, and everyone underneath you is opposed to your opinions—can you last long? You definitely won't last long. One day you might just be overthrown. Furthermore, in your ordinary daily work, people will give you the cold shoulder. Therefore, Xi Jinping now—I believe Xi Jinping has six months, these six months determine his life and death. He has no other path to walk. If he can step down decently now, able to step down and admit "I can't do this anymore," then what happens? There is someone who can replace me, and I think this person—either he steps down gradually, step by step within the next six months, and after six months hands over all his power, handing over power to three positions: President of the state, Party Chairman, and Central Military Commission Chairman. But I think this possibility, this possibility for him, is still quite small, because he himself has stolen too much. People—often speaking of people in the CCP—these graves are usually dug by themselves. Just how deep this pit is, we don't know, we ordinary people don't know, we can only guess. When the time comes for him to go down, even if someone throws down a rope to pull him up, they won't be able to pull him up because the bottom is too deep, he has sunk down too deeply. Once he goes down into the mud, it covers him right up. Then how can you move at all? Completely unable to do anything. The scene I am describing for Xi Jinping right now is precisely this scene, precisely this scene.

Then there is another possibility, another possibility is that after he steps down, he gradually brings back his overseas assets and family property. It's just that for those in the anti-Xi faction, for those who have taken power, Xi Jinping now has only one way out, which is to beg for mercy. In fact, if he doesn't beg for mercy, then he is completely finished, and he will harm his whole family, harm his entire family. Look, he harmed Xi Yuanping, harmed Xi Qiaoqiao, harmed everyone in his family. In the internal liquidation of the CCP, not a single one will escape, none of them can run, not a single one can be left out. This includes all his collateral relatives who will also be thoroughly liquidated. And then there is that, his wife, Peng Liyuan's family is the same. Peng Liyuan's family is actually involved very deeply in Shandong. Now it is, it is completely not just Shandong. Peng Liyuan, think about it, that nice little girl who went to Beijing to sing, studied at the Shandong University of the Arts, went to Beijing, married Xi Jinping, and later turned herself into Jiang Qing? You think about it, the process I am describing is this process. She turned into Jiang Qing, and the final result will be Jiang Qing's result. This person, look at how much younger she is than Xi Jinping? About ten years younger, right? Born in the 60s, yes, about ten years younger. You think, the two of them are about ten years apart, one born in the 50s, one in the 60s, right? You think. After Xi Jinping is gone, after he is gone, she will still be alive. Do you think people will liquidate her? They will definitely liquidate her. So the possibility of Peng Liyuan being liquidated is almost 100%, she simply cannot escape. Now there is news circulating that she might take power, it is entirely possible, it is entirely possible. The rumors outside now are entirely possible, and she might think, she might think, 'Anyway, I am going to be liquidated, so fine, I will fight it out with you all.'

Six months, Xi Jinping has about six months. Suppose he, this is his last move now. All the moves he made before were all bad moves, he played a bad game, not a single move was right. So, if his last move is correct, he might be able to save his life; if he makes the wrong move, then he will lose his life, even lose his life. This is Xi Jinping's current situation. So, you say, can one be a dictator? Absolutely not. You absolutely cannot get involved in this CCP circle, absolutely not. I once mentioned a matter, this was told to me by a friend who worked in the security department in Shanghai. When Xi Jinping was the Party Secretary in Shanghai, his security was the responsibility of the Shanghai Municipal Government's security department. He accompanied him to the Dongjiao State Guest House to see Jiang Zemin, who had already retired at the time. When Xi Jinping came out, he shook his head and said, 'Sigh, this means even freedom is gone.' It means being locked up in that place. Actually, I believe, this is what my friend told me personally, this is what he heard, that he saw the CCP is like this. As long as you step down, you are, it is equivalent to already being under house arrest, already under house arrest. Any of your actions, you must pass, must pass by submitting a report to the General Office of the CCP Central Committee. It's not like Jiang Zemin, for example, at the Dongjiao State Guest House, saying tomorrow I want to go somewhere, go somewhere to eat, or the day after tomorrow go somewhere, it is absolutely not allowed. You are in that place, you are in that place. If you want to move to a location, you must apply in advance. Apply to whom? Because his security work is all done by the Central Security Bureau. So you have to write a report in advance, and after writing the report, let, now the internet is faster, let them approve it, let the higher-ups approve it, let the Director of the General Office approve it. Now it's like everyone is approving it together. Once the Director of the General Office approves it, when you can leave, then you can leave. There will be a specific itinerary, where to stay, where to live, how many days to stay. How your security work is done, there will be specific things. So when Xi Jinping went to see Jiang Zemin at that time, I estimate Jiang Zemin was also saying this to him, meaning that I have no freedom now, that is to say, he was sighing, sighing, that's how it was. So when Xi Jinping came out and shook his head, at that moment I believe Xi Jinping was really likely thinking, 'I want to be emperor until I die, I want to be emperor until I die.' So after he took power, in his fifth year, from 2013 to 2018, he amended the constitution. After one term, he immediately amended the constitution, immediately amended it, couldn't wait. Amending the constitution, in the end, look, he has now served three terms. By next year, by next year it will be the fourth term. If this fourth term continues, if the fourth term continues, then I think something big will really happen in China. This big event means that all the floods and beasts are aimed at him, all aimed at him.

Alright, I'll leave this topic here for everyone. Look, today is the second day; the Fifth Plenary Session lasts for a total of four days. After these four days, watch Xi Jinping. I estimate that during the meeting, it's entirely possible for Xi Jinping to faint several times. Fainting—he's now in this meeting, and you think about it, holding a meeting for several consecutive days, and he still has to meet people inside. Xi Jinping now hates everyone he sees. Look at that day when he walked out during the 90th anniversary; oh, he felt as if he himself, as if the hatred in his heart, was completely, completely visible on his face. You think about it, how much does he have for these people? He both wants to use these people and hates them. Why does he hate these people? Because in their hearts, these people are all cursing him, all cursing him; everyone is cursing him, everyone is cursing him. Xi Jinping, this person, will not have a good end in the future. It's true, because he has arrested too many people, and he pushes them to the brink of death. Look at these officials of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP); of course, they are corrupt. But if you want to deal with corruption, if you arrest all these people, all the CCP officials, there should at least be some kind of, some kind of step down. For example, when the CCP arrests people, if you arrest them, you take these assets out, take a portion out, and give people a way to survive. Now it's like this: he is arresting people frantically. Now Xi Jinping suspects everything, suspects everything. You tell me, who does he still trust? None. No one is trusted, no one is in his heart; everyone is just like Mao was back then. Those people like Chen Boda that I talked about yesterday, you see that later they were all, by the 1970s, all gotten rid of by Mao. You think about it, these people were all those around him, taking care of him like his own sons, and in the end, they were all gotten rid of.