Xi Jinping Forced to Arrange a Successor, the CCP Set to Enter a Period of High Political Risk Again

In this episode hosted by Hu Liren, we explore reports from Beijing that Xi Jinping is assembling a brand-new succession team centered around Peng Liyuan and Xi Mingze, analyzing the internal risks of power transition within the top leadership of the CCP, the roles of Cai Qi and Li Qiang, and how the political maneuvering within the CCP system subjects the top leadership to severe risks of infighting and purges.

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News has come out of Beijing, and overseas media have also begun reporting, that Xi Jinping is now forming a new succession group. This group will ultimately be led by one person as the figurehead and requires a new team, which may differ significantly from Xi Jinping's current lineup. Some people hold too much power—for example, Cai Qi holds substantial power—so if he were made to assist someone, say Peng Liyuan... Reports from Beijing suggest that Peng Liyuan is a key candidate because, despite intense internal infighting within the Communist Party, there is still relative trust between husband and wife. Furthermore, they have a daughter together, Xi Mingze, and the ultimate goal may be to promote Xi Mingze. However, before Xi Mingze develops sufficient capability, a team is needed to assist her, and the leader of this advisory group might be Peng Liyuan. I think this logic holds up, just like during the Cultural Revolution, when Jiang Qing played a crucial role, far surpassing everyone who had once stood alongside Mao Zedong; in the end, it was Jiang Qing who remained. Later in the Cultural Revolution, many decisions were made by Jiang Qing, and others had to read her expressions when making decisions—this is the history of the CCP. Deng Xiaoping, and now Xi Jinping, have reached a similar juncture: he is now over seventy years old, and if he serves another term, the risk becomes huge if he suddenly collapses, so he is forced to assemble a team. Now it has been suggested that in his team, Cai Qi should be excluded, as well as Li Qiang. The longer these two stay, the greater the challenge they pose to Xi Jinping.

Everyone inside the Chinese Communist Party actually has an emperor’s heart, an imperial heart. Once someone like Cai Qi wields too much power, if he ever turns on others, no one else will be able to stand against him. His political connections within the current framework of the Party are extremely powerful; these people are all confidants arranged and promoted by him. You have no way to subvert him; the entire Zhongnanhai is controlled by him, including all the ministries and commissions. Under such circumstances, if he were to ever reverse his stance and wanted to hold Xi Jinping accountable, take down Xi Jinping, or settle accounts with Xi Jinping, it would be very easy. This is because Cai Qi knows Xi Jinping too well; many things were done by him, he was pulling the strings and commanding, and he is the number one flatterer. All of Xi Jinping's thoughts and actions must go through Cai Qi, and cannot bypass him. Under such circumstances, if Cai Qi were to expose Xi Jinping's affairs and produce complete evidence, all of Xi Jinping's global assets would be traced at that time. Therefore, the entire Xi family, including Peng's family, all want to enter the capital, and some are even killed off. So I think it is unlikely for Cai Qi to enter this—one is Cai Qi, and the other is Li Qiang. Li Qiang is the same, because their relationship is too close, and everyone is very clear about how Xi Jinping rose back then. Therefore, it is possible that Peng Liyuan might form a team, and this team must eventually win Xi Jinping's approval. Once Xi Jinping falls, Peng Liyuan might step up temporarily. Since Peng Liyuan is also in her sixties and will be seventy in a few more years, she has no way to rule and govern the country for a long time, and ultimately Xi Mingze will be pushed forward. Otherwise, Xi Jinping's constitutional amendment would have no meaning; amending the constitution equals pushing himself to the forefront and to the edge of a fire pit, where anyone can kick him into the fire pit.

In a democratic country, the coming to power or stepping down of anyone—coming to power might not be easy, but stepping down is very easy, and after stepping down, they often do not face severe liquidation. Places like the United States do not, South Korea is an exception where everyone liquidates each other. Other democratic countries generally tend to be like this, but only in those evil dictatorships is coming to power easy and stepping down difficult, with stepping down carrying high risks. Mao's stepping down was also high-risk, and after he died, his entire family was ruined. At the time, when Deng stepped down, Jiang stepped down, and Hu stepped down, they were still relatively safe. Although their assets were handed over, their persons and families did not suffer malicious liquidation; they just had to surrender their family wealth and hand over the money obtained through corruption to the people below. But dictators are completely different. Now people's guesses are grounded and reasonable. Before going to the US, Xi Jinping once held a Political Bureau Standing Committee meeting, and the tone of this meeting was to continue conducting purges within the Party. I feel that Xi Jinping is probably doing this right now. Because once Peng Liyuan is pushed forward to form a new cabinet, she will face challenges within the Party; these challenges might not be public, but hidden. If Peng Liyuan is pushed up, Xi Jinping will definitely send his people to clear obstacles for Peng Liyuan, meaning potential risk targets, including the military and political systems, and he will conduct a major cleanup. From now until December, it is very likely that Xi Jinping will carry out another major purge, and it is possible that someone will suddenly announce stepping down, the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection will start making arrests, and someone might even escape. This is a high-risk period, and Xi Jinping has actually entered a high-risk period.

Since Xi Jinping has been in power for so many years and arrested so many people currently in office, I think they should also have some awareness. Everyone is weighing whether they themselves will be purged, and they will not blindly wait for you to purge them; they will definitely take action as well. Under such circumstances, the possibility of infighting within the Chinese Communist Party becomes relatively high, and even armed clashes might occur. The relationships of many people within the Chinese Communist Party are intricate and complex; although on the surface everyone is supporting Xi Jinping, in essence, everyone has their own calculations, and everyone has their own group and team. Under such circumstances, whether anti-Xi figures or those potential targets threatened by Xi Jinping will take some action—all of these are within the risks. After returning from India, Xi Jinping lay in bed for seven consecutive days receiving treatment, and as soon as he got up, he immediately did this thing, immediately holding a Political Bureau Standing Committee meeting. This Standing Committee meeting was an extra one, not arranged beforehand, and not a normal Standing Committee meeting. Some predict that after he held the Standing Committee meeting and during the period when Xi Jinping went to the US, things had actually already happened domestically, and he may have sent a batch of people to start making mass arrests.

I did a program last year explaining that the Central Security Bureau has expanded from 10,000 people at that time to about 70,000 now. In fact, these 70,000 people are not just in Beijing; they are spread across other provinces, monitoring provincial governors, provincial party secretaries, and including high-ranking officials and retired high-ranking officials—all are under the control of the central authorities. This team is now massive, much like the Gestapo, the secret police force during the Nazi era, which was directly led by the Führer. These people are not interfered with by local authorities, and no military unit can touch them. If they want to arrest a general, they can do it at will. These people, the secret police and the Central Security Bureau, hold the 'Shangfang Sword' (imperial authority), much like the Eastern Depot (Dongchang) of the emperors in the past. The Communist Party uses this same set of tactics; in fact, they are just continuing the old feudal methods of governance and control. What do these people inside the Communist Party study every day? They study power tactics, how to firmly solidify their power—that is what they are studying. The Communist Party keeps the common people in the dark and doesn't care about their interests at all. Their primary focus is their power tactics, how to engage in infighting, and how to scheme against each other. Those who have worked in state-owned enterprises before know that if you want to go to a foreign-funded enterprise, it won't work. Foreign companies have a completely different set of ways. I used to work in a foreign company, and when I had my first job at a research institute, many people treated me like a fool. It's determined by your family background; some people's families are inherently involved in power struggles. They know how to read people, identify who the boss is, and how to flatter and suck up to them. These people often rise quickly. Others, whose parents are honest and decent people, teach you how to study, how to be a person, and how to be a normal human being. If you want to be a normal person, you can't survive in that kind of unit, so I left very early on. Back then, they treated me like a fool, and I treated them like fools too. Later, when I went to a foreign company, it was completely different. They felt that Hu Liren might be completely different from others, and I got promoted from time to time. At that time, when I worked in a state-owned unit, I only earned a few dozen yuan a month. Once I went to a foreign company, I was earning thousands, and later tens of thousands a month. It was completely different, a step up, with a totally different income, and my work experience kept pushing me upward.

So, for some people, even now, I can understand why many people in China support the Communist Party. Do you know why they support it? Because their family is that kind of family, what they worship is that kind of thing, and the education they received since childhood is that kind of education. Therefore, they have no ability and are completely unwilling to distinguish between good and evil, right and wrong. They think you are the fool. It's like when someone falls on the street, an old person falls; normally, I would go to help them—this is human instinct. They have already lost the most basic human instincts. If you want to help, they will tell you, 'Hu Liren, you must not help. If you help, you will be in trouble.' Their habitual thinking is just like that; the gap between people is very large. I hope that if you want your descendants to become normal people, you must never get involved in the Communist Party's system. If you get involved in the Communist Party's system, after a long time, your descendants will eventually turn into little devils. Some people feel like fish in water when they arrive overseas; they arrive in a free and civilized country and feel that this is where they truly belong. Some people, when they arrive in a free country ruled by law, feel completely uncomfortable. What they feel comfortable with is returning to the Communist Party's abnormal society, because they themselves are abnormal, and they can only go back.

Up to this day, some people say Xi Jinping is bad, but where is his badness? His parents were bad people themselves, wicked people themselves. In his system, the longer a person hangs around inside this system, the more wicked they become, eventually turning into a devil. Their thinking contains only power, without any interests of the common people, without anyone else's interests. For the sake of power, they can arbitrarily kill people and arbitrarily purge people. Look at what I am saying here, many people might not understand it yet, but if you look at the history of the Communist Party, you will know. During the Anti-Rightist Campaign, these rightist intellectuals were actually all good people, so why were there so many people abusing them and torturing them back then? During the Cultural Revolution, among those who were struggled against until they committed suicide or abused to death by suicide, the abusers and the victims had no personal grievances; it was purely about politics, about class. As long as those above told you that this person was a bad person, they would abuse these people without any humanity, ultimately killing them. This is completely abnormal. In my past case, everyone inside the CCP knew mine was an unjust case, everyone knew that this enterprise in Shandong was committing fraud, but no one spoke up for you because they were inside the system, and this system did not allow it to happen. Over time, they turned into devils, protecting those who are evil, bullying those who are kind, and protecting those abnormal people to abuse normal people—this is the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). Now, Xi Jinping faces the same CCP infighting, the same issues. He himself is inside this system, and with one misstep, you might end up a prisoner; it has already reached this point now, inside it is either you take me down or I take you down, either you step down or I step down. The transition of power for Communist dictators is the period of highest risk; not a single person can maintain a firm grip on a country, and Xi Jinping switched careers halfway, originally possessing no ability to control military power at all. Many people on the outside say he doesn't control military power, and that makes sense. Some people have spent a long time in the military themselves, decades, staying inside from childhood to adulthood, and their prestige is completely different. Just like Deng Xiaoping back then, wasn't the Liu-Deng Army always based inside the military? He did this kind of political work, extremely seasoned. Having spent so long inside the Communist Party, he had an entire faction thoroughly penetrated throughout the military. Look at Hua Guofeng, the state president at the time, he could handle and take you down at will, and even Hu Yaobang as General Secretary and Premier, he could just casually take him down. Figures like Zhao Ziyang were also very powerful within the party back then, but once they ran into someone like Deng Xiaoping, you went to prison if he arbitrarily decided so, or you were cast aside if he arbitrarily decided so. Hu Yaobang died an unnatural death, and many people within the Communist Party die unnatural deaths; Li Keqiang was the same. We are watching the tigers fight from the mountain, observing how these people inside the Communist Party tear each other apart internally, how it's you take me down and I take you down. These people are all Communist Party members, all bad people, wicked people, not a single one is a normal person—a normal person wouldn't get in there. Let us wait and see how Xi Jinping fares from now until December; I think he will be at his most dangerous by December.