Zhai Shanying: China in Ten Years Will Be Unbearably Grim

In the video, Zhai Shanying provides a detailed analysis of the growth of total social financing and the future debt crisis in the CCP-ruled China since Xi Jinping took power. He points out that from 2012 to 2026, the total social financing in China climbed from 100 trillion to nearly 500 trillion RMB, and it is expected to exceed 1 quadrillion RMB by 2034, placing a debt burden of as much as 2 million RMB on every member of the workforce. This triggers social pressure, and the problem will intensify, especially against the backdrop of accelerating aging, making the future burden of living even more severe. Zhai Shanying also criticizes the CCP's economic policies and system, which force local governments to continuously borrow money to cover insufficient revenue, ultimately leading the country toward an irreversible path of collapse.

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Oh, is it okay? Oh, it's started.

Hello friends, today is June 2, 2026. Still a late greeting, still wishing everyone a happy holiday. We are forever 18, forever children.

Tuesday, welcome to the Zhai Shanying YouTube channel, to chat and relax. For friends in China, it's to help you sleep; for friends overseas, it's to stay awake. I love you too, love you.

Okay, let's follow the sequence and clarify something from last time. A few people asked me about the money problem in the CCP-ruled China. Starting from when that fucking idiot Xi Jinping officially took power, at the First Plenary Session of the 18th Central Committee in 2012, the official data of the CCP at the end of that year showed that total social financing—the total amount of money the entire country owed—was about 100 trillion RMB.

In 2012, 100 trillion.

Although the stock of total social financing is not the total debt of the entire CCP-ruled China, because this figure does not include government deficits, local government implicit debt, internal debt within the banking system, a large amount of debt from financial institutions not included in social financing, etc., it is still a debt figure.

Everyone remember, when Xi Jinping took power in 2012, it was about 100 trillion. This is a visible figure. That is to say, from 1949 to 2012, over 63 years, the CCP-ruled China's social financing grew from zero to about 100 trillion.

After this fucking idiot took power, it took 13 years and 4 months, until the end of April 2026, for the CCP-ruled China's social financing figure to reach 456.89 trillion. Of course, if you add the government deficits, internal bank debts, etc., that I just mentioned, it would certainly exceed that; even conservatively, it exceeds 500 trillion. This is public data.

500 trillion.

What is the social financing figure of the CCP-ruled China? China's debt grew from zero to 100 trillion in 63 years, and then increased from 100 trillion to nearly 500 trillion in the following 13 years. At this rate, even if the acceleration does not continue to expand, the total social financing of the CCP-ruled China will exceed the 1 quadrillion mark in 8 years, that is, at the end of 2034.

1 quadrillion, do you hear me?

If we correspond that to the total population of the CCP-ruled China at that time, which will have decreased to about 1.2 billion, then with only 500 million people in the workforce, according to the social financing data, every worker in the CCP-ruled China will bear a debt of 2 million RMB.

Why am I saying this? When you get to the bottom line of the topic at the end, you will understand what it means. How terrifying this situation is. Even if the annual interest on this debt is only 3%, every worker in the CCP-ruled China will have to bear 60,000 RMB in debt interest per year. This requires pure profit cash or borrowed cash flow to achieve.

And in economics, no matter how you circulate it, no matter how many checkpoints it passes through, even if it is national deficit, etc., the final burden of debt will still fall on the entire social labor force to bear. There is no way around it. Either it is borne by the profits earned by the workers themselves, or it is borne by their ultimate debt.

So, is the pressure on Chinese society high now? We still have a labor force of 700 million, and the average debt per worker is less than 700,000. In 8 years, it will be 2 million. It is less than 700,000 now, but have you not already witnessed the chaos and collapse of the CCP-ruled Chinese society in 2026? Look at how chaotic it is; it is much more chaotic than a few years ago.

So, without discussing any political, financial, social, or international issues, just looking at this labor force debt, with 2 million RMB on everyone's shoulders in 8 years, you can imagine for yourselves how chaotic this country will be then.

Of course, the CCP itself has no plan to reduce debt, none. You can't see it, you can't see it anywhere. Every year, the debt of this country and society will continue to increase. So why don't they do it? There is a reason, I will talk about it next.

In this process, the various ministries and commissions of the CCP, the central government, and the leaders of various provinces and cities are increasingly quickly moving funds—whether borrowed or given—into what areas? They are desperately borrowing, not only not reducing it, but desperately borrowing and desperately spending. They are moving it into areas that are completely incapable of generating income. That is, they are disguisedly moving these funds to the subordinate departments and institutions they manage, rather than using them for construction or generating revenue.

Why is this? You will know if you keep listening. It is that the debt here is increasing, the pressure is increasing, and everyone is bearing more, but the whole country, from top to bottom, is not trying to build, but trying to dig holes, making the previous holes bigger and bigger, making this building collapse faster and faster.

What is a very important logic in all of this? In China, any project proposed by a central ministry or local government, once approved by the fucking idiot Xi Jinping and turned into a political project led by Xi Jinping, can then use massive debt capital to start construction. Where does the money go? We have no idea.

For example, as we discussed in our last livestream, the Chinese Communist Party is spending all 7 trillion this year—it must spend all of it—on what is called the new-quality mega-infrastructure. The main investment is called the computing power network. Yes, the construction of the computing power network. Of course, we also mentioned that almost all of these funds will go down the drain.

This is because the new-quality mega-infrastructure has three major differences compared to traditional mega-infrastructure, such as the "rail-road-airport" projects.

First, traditional mega-infrastructure will definitely drive employment. Traditional mega-infrastructure requires a large number of people to participate in labor engineering, thereby driving employment. In contrast, new-quality mega-infrastructure entirely consists of government agencies, state-owned enterprises, and central enterprises purchasing digital systems, without creating any new employment opportunities. So once this thing gets going, how on earth could this 7 trillion generate employment?

Second, it will not drive a comprehensive economic cycle and development. Past mega-infrastructure had very long industrial chains. Building an airport or a railway benefits over 200 industries upstream, such as steel, cement, and glass; once completed, over 100 industries downstream, such as logistics, benefit as well. In other words, with past infrastructure, the entire national economy developed within this industrial chain.

What about the new-quality mega-infrastructure? Building some computing power and leaving it there—who do you serve? Where do profits come from? Nobody knows. Upstream procurement only involves three areas: computers, non-ferrous metal rolling, and chemical engineering. Downstream does not expand into anything at all. Therefore, it will not play any expansive and promotional role in the development of the national economy.

Third, the fruits of construction cannot be preserved long-term. In the past, if you built a road in traditional infrastructure, the road stayed there—even if it got damaged, some places could still use it for 10 or 20 years. If you built a bridge, it remained visible right there. Now, as for the software and hardware of this new-quality mega-infrastructure, even if they are all set up, if the talent is inadequate and cannot be used in coordination, it is all waste. In a couple of years, it will be obsolete and unusable.

People might wonder: why does the CCP, facing such a severe shortage of money that it resorts to every conceivable exorbitant tax and miscellaneous levy, still throw these 7 trillion into things that cannot produce any results? All of this has led to an increase of nearly 400 trillion in total social financing and 400 trillion in debt in just a few years since Xi Jinping came to power. Why do they still do this? Are they all fools?

No, it is caused by the system and the institutional structure.

What the CCP implements is a dictatorial system. If the dictatorial leader is truly capable of exercising dictatorship, then his dictatorial behavior will cause the current model to continue indefinitely. The Chinese Communist Party itself is, as Mao Zedong said, a strange political party with factions inside the party and no opposing parties outside. Therefore, even when a dictator like Xi Jinping comes to power, in order to stabilize his own sphere of influence, he must grasp both hands, and both hands must be ironclad.

One hand is political achievement. After all, it is the Communist Party, and you are the leader of the Communist Party; you must have tangible political achievements that show you are fucking awesome and capable of leading the Communist Party's forces.

The other hand is the secret police organization. Arrest and eliminate everyone inside and outside the party who is disloyal to you.

Both hands must be grasped, and both must be ironclad. So when the first hand is missing—when you have no political achievements—people are just like that. With a record full of blemishes, if a dictator spends money in vain, he cannot win obedience within the party. In the end, except for a bunch of hardcore vested interests following you, everyone else opposes you. Therefore, no matter how ironclad your other hand is, and no matter how many people you arrest, you can never arrest them all, and the regime cannot be stabilized.

In reality, ever since the fucking idiot Xi Jinping came to power, the secret police organization hand has been quite formidable; the political achievement hand has never been grasped. The reason is also something we all know: his personal knowledge and cultural level are super low, his way of thinking has huge flaws, he is fundamentally a fucking idiot, and he is super unconfident inside. Consequently, this aspect has led to the failure to grasp this hand.

As time goes on, facing upcoming term transitions and preparing for the next steps, the more desperately he tries to produce results. On one hand, he desperately drives his secret police organizations—the discipline inspection commission, the supervision commission, the public security organs, the procuratorates, the people's courts, the Cyberspace Administration of China, and so on—to arrest people, frantically investigating and arresting people. On the other hand, he must also produce results, and all these results have to be bought with money.

Therefore, this causes the vicious cycles formed within the CCP system since Xi Jinping came to power to appear again and again. The 7 trillion is actually a microcosm of everything the CCP has done over the past decade or so.

Why do some people mention the nearly 400 trillion in financing and borrowing we talked about just now? Because everything they have done consists entirely of extremely stupid, idiotic things. Since coming to power, what have we seen? Projects like the C919 large passenger aircraft, the chip revitalization plan, the Xiong'an New Area, the Hainan Free Trade Port, new productive forces represented by new energy, the Yajiang Hydropower Station, and so on—so many projects.

Has anyone noticed problems with these projects? Let alone me, ordinary members of the public can spot issues with these projects even at the basic introduction and argumentation stage. For example, can Hainan replace Singapore? It cannot even have free convertibility, there is no free circulation of currency, free information cannot access Google, and international customs declaration software cannot be used domestically. I want to ask everyone: do you think this project had huge flaws right at the argumentation stage?

What is the purpose of investing trillions of funds? The Xiong'an New Area. Which major city in the world is built for political purposes today? All major cities in the world can be called resource cities, energy cities, economic cities, tourist cities, entertainment cities, or even strategic stronghold cities; there has never been a city constructed out of political intent.

Therefore, Xiong'an should be a massive city built by a dictator according to his own political will under the modern human civilization system, up to this point in human history, as Beijing needed a sub-center built through political will. Trillions of yuan have been invested.

What's even more ridiculous is that this city is actually located in Hebei Province. Under China's household registration (hukou) management system—which is similar to having mini-passports for every region—the family and corporate attributes of going to Xiong'an are not Beijing, and it is impossible for it to become Beijing; this is determined by the system. So, building a sub-center in Hebei Province is such a bizarre and impossible task.

This sub-center naturally results in a situation where the talent flow, information flow, resource flow, and even logistics conditions required for the construction of this city cannot possibly form a virtuous cycle naturally. No matter how much you force it with political means, it simply won't work. Therefore, the various necessary elements for building a city do not exist at all in Hebei Province as the capital's sub-center, and it cannot function.

To what extent is this flaw obvious? This flaw is as obvious as a person having an anus growing on their face. If someone has an anus on their face, can everyone not see it? Everyone can see it.

Why was I targeted and forced out of the country back then? At the time, exit controls were placed on me precisely because I constantly criticized the Xiong'an New Area. I had a big mouth; I was arrogant back then and had a big mouth, so I did such a thing.

Can you say that an anus on the face is invisible? Yet I found out—why can such things be criticized, yet still be done, still be carried out? I was very puzzled. The logic is so simple. Xiong'an lacks all the necessary conditions for any modern city; this is a project destined to die.

As a result, being an idiot, I talked about it here. Meanwhile, up at the top in the central leadership, Xi Jinping was overjoyed and has been doing it until now. Everyone around him was overjoyed doing it.

If we say Xi Jinping is very stupid, shouldn't he have a think tank around him? Isn't the think tank also very stupid? We can see the answer to this today. It's because I was very naive, and after being abroad for so many years, I finally figured it out: I am an idiot, I was naive. I have actually made many such naive mistakes.

For example, more than 30 years ago, when I was at the First Academy of China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation, I was the secretary to Zhang Qingwei, the head of the group at the time. At that time, Zhang Qingwei was only 42 years old and was already a member of the Central Committee, the youngest Central Committee member in the Chinese communist state. So back then, following Zhang Qingwei, I attended many meetings held by the CCP—whether it was the Central Military Commission, the General Armament Department, or the Commission for Science, Technology and Industry for National Defense.

Many of those meetings involved the issue of the military reunification of Taiwan. At that time, those meetings—because military-industrial enterprises had to undertake very important tasks, and missiles must be aerospace-related—had a very important agenda item: confirming how the CCP military could make up for its biggest shortcomings in a potential Taiwan Strait war.

Attacking Kinmen was how those people died. The shortcomings included the military and material large-scale cross-sea continuous projection capability, sustained logistical support capability, electronic warfare capabilities such as jamming and anti-jamming capabilities, command and coordination capability, beachhead expansion capability, saturated area denial capability, including how to build a defense network capable of countering potential participating US and Japanese forces and preventing strike ranges outside the CCP mainland, and so on.

It was already very clear back then; these were the things being done, more than 30 years ago. Why? Because at that time, the CCP had a goal called breaking through the First Island Chain. But as everyone knows, as long as Taiwan cannot be reunified, breaking through this First Island Chain is absolutely impossible. Taiwan is like an unsinkable aircraft carrier, together with the Japanese archipelago, controlling more than 90% of the CCP's maritime export routes. Over 90% of the maritime export routes are actually controlled between the Japanese archipelago and Taiwan, the First Island Chain.

Therefore, if Taiwan cannot be resolved, the First Island Chain can never be taken.

Those meetings more than 30 years ago all revolved around shortcomings. Because everyone knows the bucket theory, what determines how much water a bucket can hold is definitely the shortest board. And the shortest board for liberating Taiwan had already been determined back then.

Therefore, even in the blue-water navy plan proposed by the CCP Central Military Commission at the time, the premise of breaking through the First Island Chain, the first step was to build a strong cross-sea continuous projection capability, strong surface penetration power, beach-landing assault power, and so on. So why did they start talking about purchasing Ukraine's Zubr-class air-cushion landing craft 20-plus years ago in 2003—the largest in the world—moving in this direction?

Confirmed over 30 years ago, and still being done 20-plus years ago, but today, more than 30 years later, you now find that apart from a few actions, the development of all CCP weapons and equipment, which cost countless money, has nothing to do with cross-sea island-landing combat. Up to now, three aircraft carriers have been built, along with all sorts of cruisers, destroyers, and messy things, built like dumplings as the CCP says, and J-20s, all kinds of aircraft flying everywhere. But as for things related to island-landing combat, apart from four Type 075 amphibious assault ships, eight Type 071 landing platform docks, and some older Type 072 tank landing ships, there is nothing else.

With just this little force, let alone pulling heavy weapons, just pulling pure personnel can only transport 10,000 to 12,000 people. If equipment is to be pulled as well, even 8,000 people cannot be transported.

More than 30 years ago, the Central Military Commission confirmed that the force projection for the first wave of island landing, across three batches of landing forces, requires at least 50,000 to 100,000 troops. Without this force, it is simply impossible to control the landing points on the beach, the beachhead position cannot be stabilized, and logistical supplies will definitely be useless, unable to be brought up, and nobody knows where they would go.

50,000 to 100,000 people. Now, after all this is done, there aren't even 8,000 people.

The talk online about using civilian roll-on/roll-off ships or cargo vessels to transport soldiers is pure nonsense. Without absolute naval and air superiority and complete control over the 100-plus kilometer strait, using civilian ships to transport cargo is just asking to be a sitting duck; it is suicide.

But has anyone thought about why I said I’ve figured it out recently? The shortcomings were clearly identified over 30 years ago, meaning all the money spent by the military should have gone toward addressing them. Yet, so many years have passed, and the money spent is an astronomical figure, having nothing to do with the reunification of Taiwan. They have built a so-called incredibly powerful military system, but it has nothing to do with unifying Taiwan.

Always remember what I said: don't listen to what people say, look at what they do. That fucking idiot Xi Jinping wanted to unify Taiwan the moment he took office, and this is his biggest battle for his re-election. So why is no one doing it? The shortcomings that led to the loss of Kinmen over 70 years ago are all still there, with no solutions whatsoever. On the contrary, because Taiwan's weapons and equipment are becoming increasingly powerful, these shortcomings and defects are becoming more and more obvious. No one in the entire CCP Central Military Commission is managing this. Isn't that strange?

When things are abnormal, there must be a demon. They spend massive amounts of funds on all kinds of fancy warships and weapons; besides looking good, they are useless for any war that might actually happen in the future. If you have a conflict with India, are aircraft carriers and cruisers useful? If you have a conflict with Russia, is this stuff useful? If you land on Taiwan, is this stuff useful? If you have a conflict with Japan, is this stuff useful? Japan is also a larger unsinkable aircraft carrier; all these things are useless, just sitting ducks.

Speaking of this, do you understand a little bit now?

The useless Xiong'an must be built, the trashy C919 must be developed, the impossible chip revitalization must be approved and funded, and the purely money-grabbing "new quality" major infrastructure must be launched.

If you still don't understand, I will tell you about another world wonder. Everyone knows what the CCP military does in the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea every day: flying planes and running warships. Is there any other country in the world like the current People's Republic of China, flying planes and running warships in the strait and at your hostile neighbor's doorstep every single day, doing nothing else, not even using military equipment, just doing this?

Last year, there were records of thousands or tens of thousands of sorties, dozens of times every day. Isn't this sick? Why? The other side suffers no losses, but everything you fly and run is money. When modern military weapons and equipment are in motion, it's all about logistics and support—a pile of money, and the wear and tear are all money, calculated by the hour. Once a plane takes off for an hour, hundreds of thousands of dollars are gone.

Is the CCP sick, or do they have too much money? What is the purpose of spending so much money? Externally, it's called deterring Taiwan. What is the word "deterrence" used for? Even a slightly stupid person understands that deterrence is only deterrence if you occasionally strike. A dog barking suddenly is deterrence. Doing it so frequently every day, with diminishing marginal returns—this isn't called deterrence, this is called being a fucking idiot. Who is still afraid of you?

If a dog is barking "woof woof woof" there every day, with no actual substance, you don't even pay attention to it, let it do whatever it wants—is this called deterrence? The CCP is here every day now, deterring every day, either military patrols or military exercises and live-fire drills. They even coined a term called "normalization." Isn't this just "idiotization"?

You are spending money like crazy, and it has no effect on the other side. I will say it again: look around the world, check with AI, except for the People's Republic of China, there is no second country that does this kind of stupid thing.

It's a world wonder, a world wonder.

Look at all of the United States' military operations; they must have clear and precise goals. What are they doing? Even for military exercises, they only do it once a year, and it's very precise; they won't keep being stupid about it like this.

What is the essence of doing this? It's called wasting money in a "justifiable" way. Do you really understand now?

All these projects—C919, Xiong'an, Hainan Free Trade Port, chip revitalization, new quality productive forces, new quality major infrastructure, new era military construction, normalized weapon threats, AI revolution, big data, etc.—all have one characteristic: they can paint a big picture for that fucking idiot Xi Jinping to satisfy and please him.

Don't you lack one hand? Both hands must be hard. These things all carry the name of major political achievements, which can make this primary school student extremely excited. Anyway, he doesn't understand anything, has no knowledge, no culture, understands nothing, and is incompetent.

So for these things that cost a lot of money, as long as this fucking idiot thinks it's important—"my political achievement, I want to do it"—then the money spent, whether the CCP borrows it, raises it, or uses fiscal revenue, as long as it's spent, all relevant departments can get huge benefits.

Therefore, these projects that ultimately have no practical effect will definitely be proposed by someone to get the fucking idiot to approve them. What they are grasping is this primary school student's desperate desire for political achievements. Xi Jinping needs it too much, and he is super vain. If he says it's good, it's a political achievement: "my Xiong'an," "the Hainan Free Trade Port I initiated." As long as it is approved in his name, no one within the entire CCP system will express an opinion or disagree.

Just as I said, even if his asshole is on his face, everyone pretends not to see it. Why? Because if your loyalty is not absolute, it is absolutely not loyal. So, since the great leader, the fucking idiot Xi Jinping, says this is fine, if you start raising objections—if you raise objections to something Xi Jinping agreed to—that is typical political disloyalty. Won't Xi Jinping try to destroy you?

Immediately after, once money is obtained for this, a bunch of people below can benefit. Are you trying to smash the rice bowls of these people by raising objections? Smashing someone's rice bowl is like killing their parents; if you don't die, who will?

So, does everyone finally know how this money was spent? Do you know how these massive debts were formed? Why is he called the "Chief Accelerator"? Is he awesome?

The agencies underneath all understand this. For example, the R&D of the C919 large aircraft has a core prerequisite: the engine bottleneck must be solved. It's a bottleneck. Should we touch it? If this problem isn't solved, any self-developed large aircraft is nonsense and a waste of money. However, from the project's inception until now, this core defect has been completely downplayed, while the project's political glory is highlighted: that COMAC can become the world's third-largest aviation giant alongside Boeing and Airbus, and can compete with them.

Actually, isn't that fucking stupid? Brazil's Embraer or Russia's United Aircraft Corporation, if you pick either one, are far more capable than China's aviation industry. Neither dares to claim they are particularly powerful in the civil aviation sector or that they can compete with Boeing and Airbus. Their planes fly all over the world, and they are far more advanced than the CCP. They don't even talk about it because they know it's bullshit and wishful thinking.

But the CCP talks about it because it's a political achievement that can get that fucking idiot Xi Jinping to agree; you just have to cater to his preferences, and he loves this stuff. Then, you can get a lot, a lot of money.

However, after receiving the money, the R&D institutions won't go all out to solve the engine problem. Because everyone understands that if this problem were truly solved, how could those massive, continuous R&D funds keep coming to us? So, even if only to maintain the massive, continuous R&D funding, it cannot be truly solved. The engine is used in the large aircraft; not having an engine is a defect, and such a serious defect prevents Xi Jinping's dream from being realized, so you can get as much money as you ask for. If you actually came up with a usable engine and filled that gap, it wouldn't be so scarce, and it wouldn't be so easy to ask for money anymore.

The goal is not to do the work; it is to get the money.

This includes the CCP's claim that it can independently solve the chip problem. A few years ago, during the "Big Chip" and "Great Revitalization" campaigns, the whole world knew it was impossible. Even the United States couldn't do it. Chip production must be a joint effort by many countries around the world; the ecosystem is too complex. But it doesn't matter; highlight the political prospects and launch the project. The fucking idiot Xi Jinping was immediately blinded by the political achievements of the future. No problem, do it. Do what the whole world can't do. Massive central government funding—we all know this. Countless government departments, research institutions, and enterprises associated with the project all got fat and wealthy. We all know that later, the corruption cases uncovered just from this amounted to trillions. You don't know how many people in the middle took the money.

There is also the fact that they know full well that a military unification of Taiwan requires solving the bottleneck of cross-sea landings; otherwise, no matter how long the other staves of the bucket are, it still won't hold water. The bottleneck is just that short; without a chance for cross-sea landing, military unification of Taiwan is just bullshit. But in reality, they desperately exaggerate the role of the blue-water navy and aircraft carriers to "show off our military might and boost our national prestige." The fucking idiot Xi Jinping gets excited, not even thinking about how this has anything to do with unifying Taiwan, and throws money at it like crazy. The more stories they make up, the more money they get. These things are actually completely unrelated to Xi Jinping achieving his dream of unifying Taiwan.

It's the same with planes flying and warships threatening Taiwan every day—it's about money. I've said it before: if you threaten occasionally, like a clap of thunder in the sky, you might be scared. But if it thunders every day, you'll sleep as soundly as ever. But that doesn't cost money. So as long as you tell the fucking idiot Xi Jinping that it's "normalized" and that we are threatening them every day to "show off our military might and boost our national prestige," this fucking idiot will definitely think it's awesome, that he can keep stepping on Taiwan's face, and he'll have an illusion. The Eastern Theater Command and other relevant agencies can then continuously ask the central government for money, and it can't stop. Because if this useless, normalized threat stops, these agencies will have no reason to ask for money.

Is it clear enough now that I've broken it down? It's all a show; it's a systemic problem.

Whether it's the various ministries and commissions within the CCP, the main leaders of provinces and cities, the main leaders of the Central Military Commission, or the main leaders of the military-industrial groups—and I mean the main leaders, not Xi Jinping—they all have to make up stories to lead their teams for their own interests. If you don't give benefits to the teams below, who will follow you?

They all have to make up stories, create fake projects, and deceive the fucking idiot Xi Jinping. The common feature of these projects is that they can produce superficial political achievements, but there will be no real results. And they aren't afraid of these results. Why? Because they cannot be verified; they are unverifiable. The money hasn't been spent enough, so keep spending it.

For example, the C919 is supposed to build a global civil aviation enterprise for the CCP that rivals Boeing and Airbus. Everyone think about how much money that will take. So, the money hasn't been spent enough; keep spending it. How much money does it take to build an international port and free trade island that surpasses Singapore? It hasn't been spent enough; keep spending it.

It's easy to make up stories with these things. After the funds are released, the people and leaders in relevant local departments take the money, and this money flows in disguise into their own pockets and those of all their subordinates. Once the people below have real benefits, they will be obedient, making it easier for these leaders to lead their teams. Moreover, projects approved by Xi Jinping—projects approved by this fucking idiot—are the benchmark for political attitude within the Party; one must be loyal. If loyalty is not absolute, it is absolutely not loyal. So there's no way around it; no one can verify it.

Once the closed loop is completed, everyone makes up stories together and does it together. Like the photovoltaic grid installations this year, representing "new quality productive forces" with new energy. Photovoltaic grid installations in the CCP's territory in the first four months compared to the same period last year were not even one percent. It's even worse than real estate. But why can't the story I'm telling be broken? Because this was approved by Xi Jinping. It's being done so stupidly, but does anyone dare to tell the higher-ups: "Old Xi, the project you approved and spent so much money on back then has failed"? Who dares to say that? Wouldn't saying that be suicide?

How much Xi Jinping loves to hear about achievements and stories! Including the new massive infrastructure projects—even after last year's DeepSeek all-in-one machines failed so miserably, they are still doing this. Isn't this utter bullshit? But it doesn't matter. Given Xi Jinping's level, whatever AI or digitalization is, he definitely cannot understand it, but he must feel it is fucking awesome. Ignorance is fearless. Once this stuff is implemented, this massive infrastructure, once it is implemented, his re-election will be guaranteed. So he begins to take charge, and the money is spent again. You cannot speak out; saying there is something wrong with it is considered picking faults.

Therefore, even if all these projects fail immediately, they just fail, and no one cares. Everyone now understands what the core source of the nearly 500 trillion in debt is. Moreover, on the surface, this 500 trillion doesn't all belong to individuals; it doesn't all belong to the 700 million laborers I talked about. But in reality, regardless of whether it is forced onto various institutions or individuals, if you calculate it by liquidity, in the end, this liquidity will flow back among the entire social labor group. There is no other way.

Everything is wasted. All this money in China is wasted, drained time and time again by the bureaucratic system of the CCP, and swindled from the fucking Xi Jinping by insiders within the CCP. The cycle repeats endlessly.

No one will definitely take responsibility afterward, because the initiator is Xi Jinping, done by this fucking idiot. So whatever he says just fades into nothingness. C919 continues to operate, producing a dozen or so in 4 years. The Hainan Free Trade Port continues to operate; it is so lousy that except for the first month when people tried it out, it became even worse later on. Hainan's housing prices plummeted like dog shit because of the free trade port, yet they continue with it. Xiongan New Area is already so terrible, yet they continue with it. Various warships completely unrelated to Taiwan continue to be built, planes threatening Taiwan fly every day, warships patrol, new massive infrastructure continues to be pursued, and money continues to be squandered.

This party, the CCP, has no goals or beliefs to begin with, so it spends money recklessly and does whatever it wants. And these insiders within the CCP, no matter how massive their debts become, will strive to pass them down to the lower and middle strata of society, which has nothing to do with them. Therefore, even though a huge number of people in this country are already impoverished and struggling to survive, it is still impossible to give people any vitality.

Currently, some official experts and research institutions in the CCP's country are shouting that the food delivery market only needs a few million people, and now there is an overstaffing of tens of millions; the ride-hailing driver market only needs a few million people, and now there is an overstaffing of tens of millions. With so many people squeezed into the market, no one can make a living. It looks like they are speaking good words for the people, saying it is difficult for everyone to survive.

But do these people not know? Under such high unemployment rates, if you just squeeze the extra tens of millions—nearly 100 million people—out of the food delivery and ride-hailing markets, how will these 100 million people survive? No one thinks about it.

He who gives no thought to difficulties in the future is sure to be beset by troubles near at hand. Therefore, in the future of the CCP's country, unless the Chinese Communist Party is overthrown, there is no solution. It is a systematic problem. Human civilization has reached this point today, yet the People's Republic of China can still produce such a dictatorial monstrosity as the CCP, where the masses at the bottom dare not even voice any opinions, and a large number of people still desperately sing its praises. It is quite a miracle.

I am talking so much just hoping everyone understands that the CCP's rule over this country will definitely collapse, and no amount of spinning will help. It is determined by the system and the structure. If these things were to change, it would no longer be called the Chinese Communist Party. Therefore, as long as these structures and systems remain, no one will supervise any actions of the Chinese Communist Party, and every person in the CCP's country has only responsibilities and obligations from birth, with no rights. Responsibilities, authority, and benefits—there are only responsibilities and obligations, and never any rights. Thus, it is hard for such a country to sustain its survival.

This topic is finished. Before moving on to the next topic, I will briefly mention a misconception first. Because someone asked me about a trivial matter, I will address it right here.

Why does the medical insurance system in the CCP's country desperately cut your funds? The medicines provided to you now are all particularly poor drugs, and your medical treatments are settled item by item. But in reality, the money you spend in the medical insurance system is not someone else's money; it is either your own money or the pooling funds contributed by your work unit—it is entirely your own money. Why is this happening? I will explain in a moment.

Under this premise, let me remind everyone: if the medicine prescribed by the medical insurance is at the hospital, you do not necessarily have to buy it through medical insurance. Shop around. Because it is all your money. Therefore, you should check that there are many platforms within the CCP's country where you can buy original research drugs from international markets. Check domestic AI, you can find them using things like Doubao. The quality of these international original research drugs is far better than those made domestically in China, they are much cheaper, and the dosage is larger. The money spent through medical insurance is your own money, and buying medicine yourself is also your own money. And if you have employee medical insurance, the money in your account will be kept for you and accumulated if you do not spend it. So everyone should think for themselves about which pool of money should be spent when buying medicine. I am just taking this opportunity to remind everyone.

Now let's move on to the next topic.

Within 10 years. For example, Teacher Chen, didn't you say the CCP might collapse this year or next year? Why talk about 10 years? Chinese people will still have to endure such huge hardships, or even a catastrophic disaster for the entire nation. There is no other way, because under the CCP's rule, even if the Chinese Communist Party collapses this year, whoever comes up next—didn't I tell you all before? This problem is enormous. Over a 10-year period, this shock—perhaps whether this country forms a single nation or multiple nations—will make recovery extremely difficult.

Because the landmines left behind by the Chinese Communist Party are simply too huge.

Many problems will cause this country to fail to regain its vitality even after the Chinese Communist Party collapses in the future. I will explain them to you one by one. Today, let's talk about the first problem first. This problem actually sounds very simple to everyone, which is our elderly problem—elderly care, medical insurance, and other issues concerning the elderly.

First of all, you should think that this must mean there is not much money left in the social security accounts, because the social security accounts will indeed run out of money by 2029. Therefore, in order to maintain sufficient funds for social security, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) frantically introduced a bunch of laws and regulations in 2025 and 2026, all of which force the entire population to pay into employee social security. However, whether these funds can last until 2030 is another matter entirely.

Yet, none of these are the real crux of the future elderly problem. In the past, when the CCP had money, the central government transferred and allocated a large amount of funds every year to subsidize social security. Now, the central government of the CCP is also finding it increasingly difficult, but this still isn't the true future elderly problem.

Where does the future elderly problem lie?

Currently in the CCP's country, 389 million people pay into basic medical insurance for employees, and 942 million people pay into basic medical insurance for urban and rural residents. Look at the ratio between these two groups of people.

I will answer the question above first. Why is it that even though it is your own money, the CCP won't even let you have original drugs, and minimizes the money spent on your medical treatment and surgeries? Isn't it all spent from your own money and the pooled funds? Why does the CCP do this?

Let me repeat, 389 million people in the CCP's country pay for employee medical insurance—over 300 million people. Meanwhile, 942 million people pay for basic medical insurance for urban and rural residents. In other words, as I just mentioned, the ones who actually have their own money in their accounts to buy medicine are 389 million people. And there are 942 million people who actually pay very little and enjoy even fewer benefits. With the money they pay, under the current circumstances where the population is aging and medical insurance is being squeezed, they cannot afford any illnesses at all.

However, the CCP currently has no money, and it is absolutely impossible for them to subsidize the medical insurance accounts with funds. So what method did they adopt? Everyone can check online, for example, the method called "employee medical insurance outpatient mutual aid." Just look it up and you'll understand. It means using administrative means to covertly transfer the pooled funds paid by the 300-plus million people contributing to employee medical insurance into the pool for urban and rural resident basic medical insurance. Because many elderly people among them cannot survive and have ended up living in psychiatric hospitals. But if something happens to these people, it still poses quite a threat to the CCP's country.

So what is to be done? You pay more money, so you can see a doctor whenever you want? Anyway, with your money, you can eat whatever medicine you want and get treated however you want? No. Because there are still over 900 million other people, and the CCP cannot shirk this. What to do? Stop all your high-end drugs and useful drugs over here, treat you strictly according to itemized medical projects, and make you save money desperately. What happens to the pooled money you saved? Since you paid it, never mind—with a wave of administrative measures, it gets transferred over here to pay for medical care for those people over here who cannot afford money or medical treatment.

So does everyone understand first why you have to shop around when buying medicine? Let me tell you a small story first.

However, problems will not be solved just because of this. For example, among the 300-plus million elderly people over 60 who have already retired in the CCP's country, only 50 percent can enjoy employee retirement, while the other 50 percent enjoy urban and rural retirement pensions. How much is the pension per month? 160 to 300 yuan. Can that 160 to 300 yuan allow an elderly person to live in retirement? Certainly not.

Why hasn't a crisis broken out yet? Keep listening and you will know.

By the end of this year, the number of elderly people over 60 in the CCP's country will exceed 350 million. Among them, half, or even more than half, have a monthly income of only 160 yuan to 300 yuan. So what is the situation they are facing?

The most terrifying situation is the 180 million only-children. 180 million only-children.

By 2029, there will be 400 million to 500 million elderly people over 60 in the CCP's country, and surprisingly, half of those elderly people will be over 70 years old. Among these 400 to 500 million elderly people, a large majority—meaning over 300 million elderly people—are the parents of the only-children born after 1980.

Official recognition by the CCP's country states there are 180 million only-children. As everyone knows, if two parents give birth to one child, 180 million should yield 360 million people. But there are many problems within this: some people have died, some parents remarried and formed new couples, and so on. Therefore, 180 million people will form over 300 million parents. Some people have also passed away. And all these parents will entirely enter the age of 60 within the next three years. Currently, 220 million people have entered the age of 60, and three years from now another 80 million will enter it, bringing all of them in.

Therefore, by 2029, all of them will have entered the age of 60.

Some people say, it's fine, our country has now entered an aging society, and I know it has aged. With so many people over 60 and so many people over 65, I don't feel like the elderly are any burden to society; it's pretty good.

This is because good news is helping everyone. The average age of post-80s only-children in the CCP's country is currently 41.5 years old. When these post-80s only-children were born, according to the policy of the People's Republic of China at that time, the weighted average age of parents giving birth each year was 26.5 years old. Plugging this into the formula, we can deduce that the current average age of the only-child parent group is 68 years old.

If calculated separately for males and females, the average age of fathers of post-80s only-children is 69, and mothers are 66. This does not exclude the 80 million people who have not yet crossed the threshold of 60. If they are included, the average age of fathers of post-80s only-children is 71, and mothers are 68.

Why do I call it good news? Because the vast majority of these people are young-old. According to World Health Organization standards, those under 70 are considered young-old; they are generally in good health, fully capable of independent movement, and do not suffer from many diseases. However, once they pass 70, they enter the middle-old and old-old stages, where physical functions decline rapidly and noticeably, getting worse year by year. Hypertension, diabetes, cardiovascular diseases, and chronic illnesses all enter a period of rapid onset.

So why do I call it good news? Because the vast majority of the elderly population currently entering old age in the CCP-ruled China are young-old, especially the parents of only children.

What is the bad news? In the next two to three years, not only will the parents of 80 million only children enter old age, but more importantly, 50 million elderly people will cross the 70-year threshold and enter the middle-old stage.

According to World Health Organization data, for those aged 70 to 75—let alone those older—the cost of elderly care at this stage is already a linear increase that doubles compared to before age 70. After 75, it is no longer a linear increase, but a leap-style growth.

According to a report by the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), 75% of people aged 65 and older will require short-term or long-term care before they pass away. Some may need care for one or two months a year, while 20% will require care for more than 5 years.

So everyone should understand what is meant by good news. China has entered an aging society, and a large portion of this elderly population are parents of only children. Due to the structure of the one-child policy, they inevitably cannot rely on their children for support; they cannot afford it. The good news is that most of them are still in the young-old stage, can move freely, and can get by with some money.

But in two or three years, 50 million of them will enter the middle-old stage, and another 80 million will enter old age. This is the bad news.

People currently do not see a significant impact of social aging in China because the vast majority of the elderly, over 80%, are under 70. There are only 90 million people in China between 70 and 80, and 43 to 45 million over 80; these are all in the tens of millions.

There is another piece of good news for these elderly: among those over 70 but under 80, only 20% are parents of only children. And the majority of those over 80 are supported by the state, have pensions, or have many children.

However, in the next two to three years, the proportion of only-child parents among those over 70 will exceed 50%. In five years, it will exceed 80%. Do you understand now? Over 80%.

Among them, those who have employee social security pensions do not even reach 30%. So everyone knows why I am talking about these time points of two, three, or five years.

Let me emphasize again: the reason everyone doesn't feel the major problems in the CCP-ruled China right now is that the vast majority of the elderly are in the young-old stage. But once they enter the middle-old stage, they will be full of illnesses and all require care. This scene will change completely in two or three years. This will not change regardless of whether the CCP falls or not; people will just grow old like this.

Ten years from now, in 2036, there will be 250 million people over 70 in the CCP-ruled China. 250 million. The vast majority of those over 70, over 80%, will be parents of only children. Can you imagine that?

Many people still talk about the "six wallets" (the combined savings of parents and grandparents). Why the six wallets? Because a large number of elderly people have pensions and are only in their 60s, so they can still give money to their children every month after receiving their pensions. Once they reach 70, that is no longer a dividend. Let alone using pensions to support their children, even if they have employee medical insurance, it is uncertain whether their pension will be enough to cover their own medical treatments and hiring caregivers.

The next two or three years will be a stage of mass escalation. And only children who have to take care of their own family members will find that if they want to provide care, it will affect their work, and their income will further decline. If the elderly are seriously ill and you have to quit your job entirely to take care of them, you will have no income.

Furthermore, social stratification will inevitably further divide at that time, and conflicts will increase. Because if your parents are part of the government, especially government officials, then your retirement will be fine. It doesn't matter if official families have only children or not. But for the vast majority of people who are not CCP government officials, even if they were middle-class, they will have to exhaust their family savings to face the elderly care crisis.

So everyone, think about it: what if the CCP falls? If the CCP is gone, wealth will be redistributed. But redistribution takes time. Even if the world liquidates CCP assets, it requires a massive verification and execution process. So at that time, at most within 5 to 10 years, no matter who is in power, this country will become a survival mode with extremely low standards.

I don't know if you understand. We always say that aging is good, having more elderly is good, etc.—that is truly speaking without feeling the pain. You don't look at what age stage the elderly are in now, and what age stage they will be in the future. Do you think a 75-year-old is the same as a 65-year-old?

At that time, the country as a whole will enter a state of minimum subsistence, which is a definite event; no one in power can help it. There is no money. Most people, especially only children, because of the CCP system—the one-child policy said at the time that only children were good and the state would provide for the elderly, but who is taking care of you now?

So these elderly people have to endure their illnesses; there is really no money for treatment. Where will the money come from? Think about it. Getting out early is getting out early. Why is the CCP now emphasizing mutual-aid elderly care and mutual-aid nursing? There is no other way.

So some people say that our society is not good now, so we don't have children, don't get married, don't take out mortgages or car loans, and we just lie flat. I'm sorry, but don't think that lying flat is a miserable state. In the next few years, lying flat will be infinitely happy. Because when the elderly above you are all old, all in need of massive medical care, and all being tortured by diabetes and various diseases every day, you won't be able to lie flat at all. What will you use to lie flat? Without money for medical treatment, what will you use to lie flat? In the hospital, you will be nursing them every day, pouring water and emptying bedpans, and you won't even be able to keep up.

Don't be angry when I say this, but for those born in the 80s, this is a situation that the vast majority of you will inevitably face. You simply cannot escape it. Don't look at the fact that you are in your 40s, or some in their 50s; you cannot escape it. This is the standard configuration left for almost all the people in society by the CCP system. Because at that stage, the parents of the vast majority of the 180 million only children in this society will all be elderly in single-child families.

180 million only children, you have to support your own 300 million-plus elderly. And in five years, half of those 300 million-plus elderly will be advanced in age. So everyone, think about how terrifying this problem is.

Regarding the elderly issue, many problems, I tell you, are problems left to this society and this country by the CCP system. It's not that the problem will cease to exist if the country collapses. That's why I say that if this country collapses a bit earlier, everyone might be slightly better off and still have something left. Because the further we go, for example, if the CCP's social security runs out of money in 2029, then policies will definitely be issued in 2027 or 2028 to force the whole society into a minimum subsistence state. Once in a minimum subsistence state, the elderly in these single-child families will have even less of a way to survive. This is the current state of the country.

Of course, as always, I present facts and reason. If any of you think I am wrong or have issues, we can use data to discuss it. Let's talk about it. This is something that cannot be solved.

Xi Jinping won't care. Whether he is in power or not, when such a huge problem arises in this country, at worst he will just die, what does it have to do with him? But the people of the entire country are truly going to be finished.

Those of you who have middle school math skills, calculate it yourselves. Does everyone understand what I mean? The 180 million only children from the 80s, how old are their parents? Roughly what stage are they at now? The vast majority are young-old. But now, due to the birth rate of that time, starting this year, in the next two or three years, 50 million will cross into the middle-to-old age category. One hundred million or more will enter this category every five years, bringing this kind of direct pressure to society, and everyone will truly feel it severely.

If a man takes no thought about what is distant, he will find sorrow near at hand.

Will pensions not be honored? When has the CCP ever kept its word? When has the CCP ever been true to its word?

For those born in the 90s, looking at their family situations, it's not certain. Two or three years later, as only children face such massive social pressure, it will be transmitted to society. Because you know how chaotic 2026 will be, I'm not even saying the country will be overthrown, but with such great pressure transmitted to society, do you think those born in the 90s and 00s still have any hope for the future of this society? Just by transmitting it down, is there any hope left?

Especially for many born in the 00s, they might be only children themselves. When you see your parents taking care of your grandparents, what kind of hope for survival do you have for this society? Many people always talk about the "six wallets" or "four wallets," but that's because they aren't old enough yet. Go to the hospital and see the state of those elderly people receiving treatment; think about it, how can they open their wallets for you?

Within five years, more than 200 million elderly will suddenly turn over 70. At this time, this society will truly have no way out.

If your parents control you and won't let you "run," saying that "running" is being a traitor, then just go abroad to study, don't call it "running." People over 60 definitely won't find work. Unlike Japan, some people are still mocking the high or low wages of the Japanese or how the yen is doing. The gap between rich and poor in Japan is so small that no matter how the society changes, there won't be any major problems. The monthly salary income of the presidents and chairmen of the biggest companies is transparent and visible. The monthly salary income of the head of state and cabinet members is only three or four times that of the lowest-paid people. With such a small wealth gap in society, and a large amount of national funds used to support the general public, what is the point of talking to it about those things?

Your parents are 70 and relatively healthy. Think about it, in another five years, if your parents are both failing, what will you do? In another five years, your parents will both be in the hospital, how will you manage?

Let me tell you a story about myself. Our primary school monitor back then, his work later collapsed because his father had Alzheimer's. Do you know how terrifying people with Alzheimer's are? What kind of things will people with Alzheimer's do? For example, he would take an awl himself, go to the mall, and puncture other people's oil drums. This is his own personal experience. He called the monitor to run over and pay for the damages. He would defecate outside his own front door without knowing it.

So you know that when this person is truly old, let alone lying in bed with various illnesses, just having the scene of Alzheimer's, you tell me what the children can do?

Parental health is a blessing, but you cannot guarantee they will be healthy. Elderly people entering old age are definitely not healthy. With China's diet, air, and water, how can you keep your elderly parents healthy? You can't be healthy.

Money transferred in Hong Kong is now under strict scrutiny by Hong Kong authorities, didn't you know? Money transferred within Hong Kong must have completely legal documentation, which you need to prepare in advance. Otherwise, the money you transfer to Hong Kong will also be frozen. Just look at the recent policies of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority. For opening an account in Hong Kong and transferring money there, you must have all legal paperwork sorted out domestically. There is no other way.

Since everyone doesn't have any questions, let's leave it at that. As I mentioned at the beginning of 2026, this year is a quite critical year, and a lot of things are going to happen. We all know so much has happened by now, and society as a whole is full of hostility. But I have only talked to you about the issue of only-child elderly care, and haven't covered other aspects yet. I will talk about them slowly.

Once I've finished telling you all about it, you will realize just how many complex problems we are facing and how terrifying these problems are at their core. The consequences produced by any single issue will not simply disappear just because the Chinese Communist Party falls; they will persist. However, the root cause of all these problems is entirely the Chinese Communist Party; all the root causes of these problems are entirely because of the Chinese Communist Party.

There's no other way. So regarding this political party, I won't say anything more.

Alright, let's call it a day here. Thank you everyone for spending time listening to my bullshit again. I wish all friends in China a good night's sleep, and friends overseas all your wishes come true. There's no helping it, if a man takes no thought about what is distant, he will find sorrow near at hand. As the old saying goes, those who can run out should run out as much as possible. At the very least, this is still a path right now. Once the Chinese Communist Party truly shuts the country's doors, this path will also be completely blocked off, and even if you still have ideas, the difficulty will be immense.

Thank you everyone, thank you, thank you, thank you everyone.