11.06
·Reported
·Importance III
·Sources 1
·China
A report released by Bloomberg Economics on November 6 stated that if the Democratic Party slows down AI investment and data center construction after a major victory in the U.S. midterm elections, China's growth, which relies on AI hardware exports, will be hit. Net exports contributed nearly 40% of China's economic growth in the third quarter, and chips and computer products accounted for 40% of the year-on-year increase in exports in the first nine months.
11.06
·Reported
·Importance II
·Sources 1
·Tokyo, Japan
At the Bu Ming Bai Festival held in Tokyo, the Bu Ming Bai Podcast invited Professor Xu Chenggang to discuss the institutional logic behind China's economic growth and recession, as well as how ordinary people can cope, using his book 'The Institutional Genes' as a starting point.
11.05
·Reported
·Importance III
·Sources 1
·Beijing
On November 5, Pan Gongsheng, Governor of the People's Bank of China, reported on financial work to the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress: As of the end of September this year, the number of remaining local government financing vehicles nationwide has decreased by 92% compared to the end of March 2023; as of the end of June, the stock of operational financial debt has decreased by 79%. The report also disclosed that the cumulative approval for real estate 'white list' loans has exceeded 8.4 trillion yuan, and that officials have established a liquidity support tool for clearing arrears and held talks with leading enterprises that have defaulted on payments.
10.28
·Reported
·Importance IV
·Sources 1
·Zhuhai, Guangdong
Insiders confirm that two matured trust products of Zhuhai Huafa Group were not redeemed on schedule, causing a sharp drop in the price of its offshore dim sum bonds.
10.26
·Verified
·Importance III
·Sources 1
·Jiangxi
Xiao Jie, Vice Chairman of the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress, led a team to Nanchang, Jingdezhen and Yichun in Jiangxi to investigate government debt and audit work, and to verify materials on Jiangxi's debt black hole and mineral corruption.
10.26
·Reported
·Importance III
·Sources 1
·China
On October 26, Bloomberg reported on a Morgan Stanley study saying that the Chinese stock market may not have bottomed out yet, and that offshore Chinese stocks could fall another 10%–15% before approaching historically low valuations, with weak economic consumption, pressure on e-commerce, and fears of tax-triggered selling of trusts intensifying the adjustment.
10.25
·Verified
·Importance II
·Sources 1
·Beijing
The Beijing Municipal Tax Service publicly disclosed on its official website that tax notices had been served on 21 natural persons, reflecting the continuing increase in pressure on local finances and tax recovery.
10.25
·Reported
·Importance III
·Sources 1
·China
Bloomberg reported on October 25 that China's stock market has shrunk by about $3.5 trillion from its high earlier this year in May, with the CSI 300 index falling into a bear market the previous week, as weak consumption and price wars squeeze corporate profits.
10.23
·Reported
·Importance III
·Sources 2
·China
On October 23, the Ministry of Finance released fiscal revenue and expenditure data for the first three quarters. In September, national land transfer revenue was 233.4 billion yuan, down 23.2% year on year; individual income tax revenue was 138.4 billion yuan, up 10.5% year on year. In the first three quarters, land transfer revenue decreased by 621.5 billion yuan year on year.
10.13
·Reported
·Importance III
·Sources 1
·China
On October 13, the IMF released its latest World Economic Outlook, raising Taiwan's 2026 growth forecast from 5.2% in April to 10.7%, while lowering the mainland's forecast by 0.1 percentage points to 4.5%; Taiwan's growth is mainly driven by demand for AI and advanced chips.
10.13
·Reported
·Importance II
·Sources 1
·China
The Ministry of Finance's 2026 budget shows that central government debt interest expenditure is 873.99 billion yuan, accounting for about 19.2% of central-level expenditure.
10.11
·Reported
·Importance IV
·Sources 1
·China
According to a report by the Financial Times, China's economic growth in the second quarter fell to 4.3%, below the full-year target range of 4.5% to 5%. Retail sales and fixed-asset investment were weak, and the property market has been in a downturn for more than five years.
10.11
·Reported
·Importance III
·Sources 1
·China
Srinivasan, head of the International Monetary Fund's Asia Department, noted that China's growth model of relying on investment, manufacturing and exports is approaching its limits, and suggested improving the social security system, adjusting local government incentives and the land-finance model, warning that otherwise the country could fall into a prolonged slowdown.
10.11
·Reported
·Importance III
·Sources 1
·China
Research by the Conference Board shows that interest payments on the debt of China's central and local governments are expected to reach 1.4 trillion yuan in 2026, far exceeding the roughly 348 billion yuan in 2014; central government debt service is projected to rise to 19.2% of the general public budget.
10.11
·Reported
·Importance III
·Sources 1
·China
Morgan Stanley expects China's public debt-to-GDP ratio to reach 122% by the end of 2026, up 48 percentage points from before the pandemic.