2026-11-06
A report released by Bloomberg Economics on November 6 stated that if the Democratic Party slows down AI investment and data center construction after a major victory in the U.S. midterm elections, China's growth, which relies on AI hardware exports, will be hit. Net exports contributed nearly 40% of China's economic growth in the third quarter, and chips and computer products accounted for 40% of the year-on-year increase in exports in the first nine months.
2026-11-06
At the Bu Ming Bai Festival held in Tokyo, the Bu Ming Bai Podcast invited Professor Xu Chenggang to discuss the institutional logic behind China's economic growth and recession, as well as how ordinary people can cope, using his book 'The Institutional Genes' as a starting point.
2026-11-04
The People's Bank of China has intervened in the bond market through consecutive days of large-scale overnight reverse repos and the establishment of tools such as the Securities, Funds and Insurance Companies Swap Facility, stabilizing the run on the wealth management market.
2026-10-30
On October 30, spot gold prices plummeted, while both the 10-year TIPS real yield and the US Dollar Index recorded declines. The divergence between macro factors and gold price trends reflects a sell-off triggered by a drying up of underlying liquidity in the money market.
2026-10-26
On October 26, Bloomberg reported on a Morgan Stanley study saying that the Chinese stock market may not have bottomed out yet, and that offshore Chinese stocks could fall another 10%–15% before approaching historically low valuations, with weak economic consumption, pressure on e-commerce, and fears of tax-triggered selling of trusts intensifying the adjustment.
2026-10-25
Bloomberg reported on October 25 that China's stock market has shrunk by about $3.5 trillion from its high earlier this year in May, with the CSI 300 index falling into a bear market the previous week, as weak consumption and price wars squeeze corporate profits.
2026-10-13
On October 13, the IMF released its latest World Economic Outlook, raising Taiwan's 2026 growth forecast from 5.2% in April to 10.7%, while lowering the mainland's forecast by 0.1 percentage points to 4.5%; Taiwan's growth is mainly driven by demand for AI and advanced chips.
2026-10-12
The Chinese Communist Party's People's Bank of China issued the document "Policy Stance on the RMB Exchange Rate," reiterating that China has neither the need nor the intention to gain a trade advantage through exchange rate depreciation, and will never engage in competitive devaluation.
2026-10-11
According to a report by the Financial Times, China's economic growth in the second quarter fell to 4.3%, below the full-year target range of 4.5% to 5%. Retail sales and fixed-asset investment were weak, and the property market has been in a downturn for more than five years.
2026-10-11
Srinivasan, head of the International Monetary Fund's Asia Department, noted that China's growth model of relying on investment, manufacturing and exports is approaching its limits, and suggested improving the social security system, adjusting local government incentives and the land-finance model, warning that otherwise the country could fall into a prolonged slowdown.
2026-10-11
Research by the Conference Board shows that interest payments on the debt of China's central and local governments are expected to reach 1.4 trillion yuan in 2026, far exceeding the roughly 348 billion yuan in 2014; central government debt service is projected to rise to 19.2% of the general public budget.
2026-10-08
On October 8, The Wall Street Journal reported that, facing difficulties such as the real estate downturn, insufficient domestic demand, and second-quarter GDP growth slowing to 4.3%, the stimulus measures introduced by the Chinese government — including mortgage subsidies and capital injections into banks — lean toward caution and are unlikely to fundamentally reverse the economic weakness.
2026-10-01
The Ministry of Finance, the central bank, and the National Financial Regulatory Administration jointly announced that starting October 1, eligible first-home mortgages will receive a fiscal interest subsidy of 1 percentage point per annum.
2026-10
At the Financial Street Forum, Pan Gongsheng announced the adjustment of the policy rate tenor, the establishment of liquidity support tools for non-bank institutions, the push to link large corporations' loans to the overnight repo rate, and the exit from the deposit and lending benchmark rates, turning intraday firefighting facilities from temporary tools into standing tools.
2026-10
Based on calculations using multiple economic data points and the financial reports of listed real estate developers, the analysis points out that the current rebound in corporate deposits is mainly driven by credit bill arbitrage, and that the resulting gap in banks is ultimately filled by suppressing interest payments on households’ deposits nationwide.
2026-09-30
On September 30, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) published a new book, "Toward a New Growth Model for the Chinese Economy," on its official website, pointing out that linking local officials' performance evaluation to GDP targets has led to infrastructure expansion, land-sale financing, and the accumulation of local government financing vehicle (LGFV) debt. LGFV cash flows can cover only about one-quarter to one-third of interest payments. The book recommends improving social security, advancing household registration (hukou) reform, and increasing the progressivity of the tax system.
2026-09-29
The fiscal interest subsidy policy was officially announced on September 29 and went into effect at the start of the National Day holiday; combined with developer discounts, it drove up new home transaction volumes in some key cities.
2026-09-29
An X account named “所谓伊人在水一方” uploaded a video of a female teacher talking about student safety, in which she reminds high school students to guard against strangers, vehicles, and the risk of losing contact.
2026-09-29
On September 29, the Ministry of Finance, the central bank, and the National Financial Regulatory Administration jointly announced that starting October 1, eligible first-home mortgages will receive fiscal interest subsidies, with an implementation period provisionally set at one year — the first time the central fiscal budget has subsidized individual housing mortgages. The subsidy applies to newly purchased first-home loans for properties with an area of no more than 120 square meters and a total price of no more than 1.5 million yuan, providing an annualized interest subsidy of 1 percentage point on loans of up to 1 million yuan, for a maximum of five years.
2026-09-29
On September 29, China's central bank cut the one-year pledged supplementary lending (PSL) rate by 25 basis points to 1.5%, expanded the scope of support to include telecommunications, logistics networks and other fields, and increased the quota for equipment renewal and technology re-lending by 200 billion yuan to 1.4 trillion yuan.
2026
The video's author lists indicators from the first half of the year — contracting consumption, high-ranking officials falling from power, declines in fiscal revenue and household savings, and rising unemployment and credit defaults — claiming all have set historical records; no unified source can be found for any of the data.
2026-09-23
China's central bank announced the issuance of 60 billion RMB in central bank bills in Hong Kong on September 23, aiming to drain offshore RMB liquidity to maintain the RMB exchange rate.
2026-09-18
In a conversation, Morgan Stanley's Chief Economist for China, Xing Ziqiang, pointed out that China's social security expenditure accounts for only about 8% of GDP, far below the OECD average of 25% and the levels of developing countries with similar per capita GDP, and also mentioned group disparities in the enjoyment of public services.
2026-09-19
On September 19, Huang Yiping, a member of the Monetary Policy Committee of the People's Bank of China, stated at the Beijing Economic Forum that artificial intelligence may exacerbate the contradiction between China's overcapacity and insufficient household purchasing power. He pointed out that distribution leaning toward capital leads to weak demand, and suggested increasing the proportion of household income through market-oriented reforms, while the central government borrows to repair the balance sheets of local governments and enterprises.
2026-09-19
At the Tsinghua Wudaokou Chief Economists Forum, four scholars—Lin Yifu, Yu Yongding, Yao Yang, and Li Xunlei—concentrated their efforts to call on the central government to adopt expansionary fiscal policies and bail out local government debt.
2026-09-15
On September 15, The Wall Street Journal published an article pointing out that while China can avoid a sudden financial crisis through its state-controlled financial system, the losses from real estate and bank bad loans will not disappear. Economist Michael Pettis believes that the losses will be borne by ordinary residents in the long run through low deposit returns and shrinking asset values, rather than manifesting in public forms such as bank failures.
2026-09-15
On September 15, German Chancellor Merz criticized China at the Berlin Entrepreneurs' Conference, stating that through state intervention, overcapacity, and export subsidies, China has driven the EU's trade deficit with China to over 300 billion euros. EU leaders plan to discuss in October whether to deploy trade defense instruments.
2026-09-16
The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points at its policy meeting, moving the federal funds rate into a range of 3.75% to 4%, while the 10-year Treasury yield touched 5.3% intraday, its highest level since 2007.
Location: Washington, United States ·
Importance IV ·
Verification: Verified ·
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2026-09-15
Wen Bin, chief economist at China Minsheng Bank, published a column on September 15 saying that the financing structure in August continued to optimize and better match new quality productive forces; the claim is accused of masking the contraction of credit in the private sector.
2026-09-14
China's central bank released August financial data. New renminbi loans nationwide totaled only 59.1 billion yuan, while household loans fell by a net 202.9 billion yuan.
2026-09-14
Central bank data show that corporate loans increased by 260 billion yuan in August, of which short-term loans decreased by 160 billion yuan and medium- and long-term loans increased by 320 billion yuan, below the level of 470 billion yuan in new medium- and long-term loans in August last year.
2026-09-14
Financial data for August released by the central bank on September 14 showed that the year-on-year growth of the RMB loan balance fell to 4.9%, the lowest value since statistics began.
2026-09-14
Aggregate financing in August was 1.66 trillion yuan, down 35% year on year, of which net government bond financing was 1.01 trillion yuan, accounting for 60.8%, while RMB loans to the real economy were only 60 billion yuan, or 3.6%.
2026-09
As the lives of ordinary people grow ever harder, the Chinese Communist Party authorities seem to turn a blind eye to their suffering, continuing to tout a bright outlook for China’s economy and calling on all sectors of society to revel in economic prosperity.
2026-09
In 2026, the central bank has neither cut the reserve requirement ratio nor lowered interest rates. The 7-day reverse repo rate of 1.4% and the LPR (1-year at 3%, 5-year at 3.5%) have gone unadjusted for 16 consecutive months since May 2025.
2026-09
From January to September 2026, the central bank net bought government bonds each month in the secondary market, totaling about 400 billion yuan, with June's 10 billion yuan being the lowest since bond buying resumed in October 2025; it has not sold any government bonds this year, and the last sale through securities lending was in July 2024.
2026-09
China's 10-year government bond yield peaked at 1.9% in January, fell to a low of 1.675% on August 14, and averaged around 1.7% in September. For the full year, it fluctuated by only about 25 basis points, holding in a sideways range under the central bank's guidance.
2026-09
In the first 8 months of 2026, securities transaction stamp duty grew nearly twofold year-on-year. Funds mainly changed hands among households, brokerages, the fiscal authorities and insurance companies, without generating any new investment.
2026-09
At the recent Tsinghua PBC School Forum, economists within the system, including Lin Yifu, Yu Yongding, Yao Yang, and Li Xunlei, rarely criticized economic policy en masse. Yu Yongding said the central government's books are clean while local governments are a complete mess, and called on the central government to issue bonds to replace local debt.
2026-08-28
On August 28, 2026, the People’s Bank of China and the National Financial Regulatory Administration jointly issued new real estate credit policy rules, officially extending the maximum term of personal housing loans from 30 years to 40 years, sparking widespread public debate.
2026-08-23
People’s Daily continues to publish “Zhong Caiwen” articles, claiming that China’s economy has shown “strong resilience.”
2026-08-23
Chinese state media published an article characterizing the 4.7% economic growth in the first half of the year as high-quality, arguing that it is in line with the current economic reality.
2026-08-22
People’s Daily published an article signed “Zhong Caiwen,” arguing that observations of China’s economy should not focus only on single-month data.
2026-08-17
Li Qiang presided over a State Council meeting, calling for persisting in expanding domestic demand, focusing on the principal contradiction, seizing on areas with long industrial chains and large scale, and promoting the domestic economic cycle and consumption upgrading.
2026-08-17
On August 17, 2026, China's National Bureau of Statistics rarely broke its long-standing convention of releasing data in the morning, postponing the July national economic data to 3 p.m., after the A-share market closed, sparking market concerns that the data was under pressure.
2026-08-12
The report on the implementation of monetary policy for the second quarter, released by the People's Bank of China on August 12, proposed downplaying attention to lending as a single financing channel and instead observing lending together with bond financing; the statement was criticized as glossing over the stagnation of private credit.
2026-08-06
The yield on one-year US Treasury bonds reached 4.6%, compared to 1.3% for a five-year fixed deposit at China Construction Bank and 1.7% for savings bonds issued by the Ministry of Finance.
2026-08
China’s central bank and the financial regulator issued Document No. 171, allowing borrowers who cannot repay to defer payments, extend loan terms, or directly delay principal repayment, with extensions capped at half of the original loan term.
2026-08
In August 2026, the People’s Bank of China released financial data showing that the month’s nationwide new RMB loans were only 60 billion yuan, far below the market expectation of 4,040 billion yuan. In the first eight months, nationwide new loans totaled 10.44 trillion yuan, nearly 3 trillion yuan less year‑on‑year. Government bonds accounted for 1.01 trillion yuan of the total 1.66 trillion yuan of financial involvement in society, a year‑on‑year plunge of 35%, while corporate and household loans shrank sharply.
2026-08-01
On August 1, 2026, Qiushi, the journal of the CCP Central Committee, published an article candidly acknowledging that there is a temperature gap between macroeconomic data and the micro-level experience of the ordinary public, conceding that intensifying competition for jobs and improvements in income have fallen short of expectations, sparking widespread social discussion.
2026-07-30
On July 30, 2026, the CCP Central Committee Politburo held a meeting to analyze the economic situation. The Wall Street Journal reported that the meeting emphasized supply-side optimization and the implementation of existing policies, sending a clear signal that there is no intention to unleash flood-style massive stimulus in the face of slowing economic growth.
2026-07-29
People's Daily published guidance opinions, releasing a strong signal of investigating the Ctrip monopoly case and cracking down on antitrust involution, drawing outside attention to the authorities' further rectification of foreign and private enterprises.
2026-07-24
The CCP Central Committee held a symposium with non-Party figures at Zhongnanhai. Presiding over the meeting, Xi Jinping said that China's economy is currently facing certain difficulties and challenges.
2026-07-24
At a symposium with non-Party figures, Xi Jinping acknowledged for the first time in his own words that China's economy is experiencing a severe downturn. The news is regarded as an important milestone, foreshadowing the gravity of China's economic situation.
2026-07-22
On July 22, 2026, Zhang Enhui, Secretary of the Changchun Municipal Party Committee, presided over an enlarged meeting of the Municipal Party Committee Standing Committee. The official communiqué stated that the city's economic development is currently facing "unprecedented difficulties and challenges."
Location: Changchun, Jilin ·
Importance IV ·
Verification: Official claim ·
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2026-07-22
On July 22, 2026, the CCP Changchun Municipal Committee held an expanded standing committee meeting to conduct an in-depth analysis of the economic situation in the first half of the year, and the official announcement rarely admitted that the city's economic development is facing unprecedented difficulties and severe challenges.
2026-07-15
On July 15, 2026, China's National Bureau of Statistics released data showing that national GDP grew 4.7% year-on-year in the first half of 2026, while growth in the second quarter slowed to 4.3%, falling short of the full-year target, with real estate investment down 18% year-on-year.
2026-07-15
China announced that GDP grew 4.3% in the second quarter. Nominal growth exceeded real growth for the first time in 13 quarters, mainly driven by price increases upstream.
2026-07-15
In the first half of the year, China's aggregate financing to the real economy increased by 20.84 trillion yuan, 2.02 trillion yuan less than the same period last year; new RMB loans in June alone were 1.61 trillion yuan, more than 600 billion yuan less than the same period last year.
2026-07-14
On July 14, 2026, Reuters reported that China's financial regulatory authorities issued guidance to some banks, requiring that the interest rate for bill rediscounting business not fall below 0.5%, in order to curb an excessive decline in rates amid weak credit demand.
2026-07-08
A China economic briefing released by the World Bank on July 8 pointed out that China's domestic demand will continue to shrink and housing prices will fall, with the root cause being that the government of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) uses 43% of its budget for investment while underfunding people's livelihood.
2026-07-07
Renowned macroeconomist Gao Shanwen has passed away due to illness at the age of 55. He previously worked at institutions such as Peking University and Guotai Junan Securities, and was well-known for his profound insights and warnings regarding the Chinese economy.
2026-07-04
The quarterly meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee of the People's Bank of China adjusted the economic tone from "steady progress" to "toward the new, toward the better," and listed structural optimization as one of the challenges facing the economy.
2026-07
China's official data shows Q2 GDP grew 4.3% year-on-year, the slowest pace since the end of 2022.
2026-07
The market widely expects China's year-on-year GDP growth in the second quarter of 2026 to fall back to 4.2% to 4.5%, while the Bank of China Institute of International Finance has forecast 4.7%.
2026-06-29
The People's Bank of China injected 300 billion yuan in temporary overnight reverse repos, but did not disclose the interest rate for the operation.
2026-06-19
With fuel prices rising, Russia's central bank lowered its benchmark interest rate from 14.5% to 14.25% on June 19, 2026, marking its ninth consecutive rate cut since a previous historic high of 21%.
2026-06-18
The website of the Chinese Communist Party's theoretical journal Qiushi published a commentary article titled "Boost Consumption with Greater Vigor," proposing measures such as increasing residents' income, improving the social security system, rescuing the real estate sector, and repairing residents' balance sheets.
2026-06-17
At the Lujiazui Forum, Pan Gongsheng, governor of the central bank of the Chinese Communist Party, rolled out six new tools in one go, including narrowing the interest rate corridor, non-bank liquidity support, and overseas central bank repo facilities.
2026-06
In June 2026, the CCP central bank began restricting banks from buying bonds.
2026-06
The People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves for 19 consecutive months, contrasting with falling market prices, indicating official preference for gold.
2026-05-28
On May 28, 2026, Reuters reported, citing people familiar with the matter, that because lending fell in April and demand remained weak in May, the People's Bank of China has issued informal guidance to some large state-owned banks, asking them to increase credit provision.
2026-04-25
Justin Yifu Lin, dean of the Institute of New Structural Economics at Peking University, said in Hefei that China is only 135 dollars short of the high-income country threshold and could cross it by next year at the latest.
2026-04
By April 2026, the overnight reverse repo acting as a buffer water tower will have less than 200 million remaining, nearly wiping it out. The Ministry of Finance's withdrawal of funds will directly drain bank reserves.
2026-01-19
China's statistical department announced that the nominal GDP for 2025 is approximately 140 trillion yuan, a figure used to estimate the economic losses caused by information control.
2026
According to International Monetary Fund estimates, the actual scale of the Chinese government's debt in 2026 will be about 200 trillion yuan, reaching 135% of GDP.
2026
Based on calculations using International Monetary Fund data, China’s actual government debt ratio is projected to exceed 200% in 2026.
2026
Based on data from the International Monetary Fund, the video estimates that China's fiscal deficit in 2026 is expected to exceed 15%.
2026
China's central bank has issued a trillion-level buyout reverse repo for the third time this year to cope with the rapid spread of financial risks.
2026
Data from China's Ministry of Commerce shows that after reaching a peak of 1.23 trillion in 2024, the national actual utilized foreign investment fell to 747.6 billion last year, a year-on-year decrease of 40%, and has continued to decline by 7% this year on a low base.
2025-12
According to estimates in the Southwestern University of Finance and Economics' "2025 Report on the Fiscal Conditions of Provinces, Cities, and Counties," in 2024 the average fiscal self-sufficiency rate of the country's 2,774 county-level areas was about 38%, with the lowest county at only about 1%.
2025-09
Facing weak genuine corporate borrowing demand and pressure from credit assessment targets, banks absorbed large volumes of bills by pushing down their internal bill-purchase costs, leading to a sharp increase in bill financing and corporate deposits across the market.
2025
In 2025, China's high-tech industry actually used 241.8 billion yuan in foreign investment, down 15.6% year on year.
2025
China-Brazil bilateral trade volume reached $188 billion in 2025, ranking first in Latin America, yet Brazil's GDP growth rate over the past 15 years ranks second to last among major Latin American countries.
2025
Despite the Chinese ban, Japan's total seafood exports recovered in 2025 and hit a record high of 423.1 billion yen, a year-on-year increase of 17.2 percent.
2025
Statistics bulletin of the National Health Commission shows that in 2025 there were 15.109 million voluntary blood donation visits nationwide, with a donation rate of 10.9 per 1,000 people; all three key indicators dropped by about 11% compared with 2023; in 2024, donations were already more than 1 million visits fewer than in 2023.
2024-12-03
In a speech at the end of 2024, Gao Shanwen expressed sensitive views on the cyclical bubbles, consumption structure, actual growth rate, and future low growth of the Chinese economy. The speech was subsequently banned, marking his final public address.
2024-10-14
Data released by the People's Bank of China shows that the balance of M0 cash in circulation at the end of September was 15.02 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.6%. Throughout last year, the M0 growth rate remained stable between 10% and 12%, indicating that despite the widespread adoption of QR code payments, the amount of cash held by the public continues to grow at a double-digit rate.
2024-07
Under the influence of bank credit assessment and market supply and demand, the rediscount rate on one-month national joint-stock bank bills touched zero for the first time at the end of July, opening up the subsequent long-term low-interest-rate bill discount arbitrage channel.
2024-05
China introduced a policy to lower the mortgage down payment ratio to 15% in order to boost the property market.
2023
Last year, daily rental rates in China's robot rental market ranged from 5,000 to 15,000 yuan, used mainly for performance-type events such as mall openings, auto show booths, and warm-up acts at annual galas.
2022-10
University of Chicago scholar Martinez, using satellite nighttime light data, found that annual GDP growth in authoritarian countries is overstated by an average of about 35%, and that China's figure may have been overstated by about one third over the past two decades.
2018-01-11
In January 2018, Tianjin Binhai New Area switched its GDP statistical basis from registered to local, revising its 2016 GDP from 1,000.231 billion yuan to 665.4 billion yuan, a drop of about one third; the Tianjin Municipal Bureau of Statistics said this had no impact on the city's overall GDP.
2013-06-20
After taking office, Li Keqiang adopted 'Likonomics' measures such as restricting government spending and deleveraging, attempting to control ballooning debt and promote market-oriented reforms.
2012
The sum of GDP figures reported by provinces and municipalities in 2012 was 57.66 trillion yuan, about 10% higher than the 51.93 trillion yuan calculated by the National Bureau of Statistics; the bureau said the difference was mainly due to double counting in the tiered accounting system and differences in raw data.
2008
Since mid-2006, U.S. home prices have fallen by more than 20% on average; home equity dropped from about $13 trillion in 2006 to about $8.8 trillion in mid-2008, and the video says household net worth evaporated by about $13 trillion.
2007-03
The then-Secretary of the Liaoning Provincial Party Committee, Li Keqiang, told the US Ambassador that Liaoning's GDP figures were man-made and for reference only, and that he only looked at electricity consumption, railway cargo volume, and bank loans.
2001-12-11
On December 11, 2001, China officially became a member of the World Trade Organization after an agreement was reached at the ministerial conference in Doha.
1995
In 1995, the Law on the People's Bank of China and the Commercial Bank Law were passed, marking the initial establishment of China's modern financial framework.
1993-12
In late 1993, China determined the plan to unify the RMB exchange rate, merging the official and market rates. The relevant reforms were officially implemented the following year.
1976
In October 1976, the ten-year-long Cultural Revolution ended with the "downfall of the Gang of Four"; the prolonged political campaigns had a severe impact on China's economy.
1948-08-19
To curb hyperinflation, the Nationalist Government issued gold yuan notes and forced the public to hand over gold, silver and US dollars, and in the end the price-control policy collapsed.