2026-11-06
A report released by Bloomberg Economics on November 6 stated that if the Democratic Party slows down AI investment and data center construction after a major victory in the U.S. midterm elections, China's growth, which relies on AI hardware exports, will be hit. Net exports contributed nearly 40% of China's economic growth in the third quarter, and chips and computer products accounted for 40% of the year-on-year increase in exports in the first nine months.
2026-11-06
At the Bu Ming Bai Festival held in Tokyo, the Bu Ming Bai Podcast invited Professor Xu Chenggang to discuss the institutional logic behind China's economic growth and recession, as well as how ordinary people can cope, using his book 'The Institutional Genes' as a starting point.
2026-10-26
On October 26, Bloomberg reported on a Morgan Stanley study saying that the Chinese stock market may not have bottomed out yet, and that offshore Chinese stocks could fall another 10%–15% before approaching historically low valuations, with weak economic consumption, pressure on e-commerce, and fears of tax-triggered selling of trusts intensifying the adjustment.
2026-10-25
Bloomberg reported on October 25 that China's stock market has shrunk by about $3.5 trillion from its high earlier this year in May, with the CSI 300 index falling into a bear market the previous week, as weak consumption and price wars squeeze corporate profits.
2026-10-14
According to a Bloomberg report on October 14, the EU is negotiating with China to lift trade sanctions on a Chinese company suspected of assisting Russia's war against Ukraine, in exchange for China lifting sanctions on the German company Sindlhauser Materials GmbH. The German firm faces the risk of bankruptcy because it was placed on China's rare earth export control list; the two sides recently held talks in Beijing and agreed to strengthen information sharing on export restrictions.
2026-10-14
Internal EU documents show that Europe is seeking to strengthen cooperation with Vietnam to obtain critical minerals such as tungsten and rare earths needed by the defense industry, and to reduce its dependence on Chinese supplies. Vietnam holds large reserves of relevant minerals. Export restrictions imposed by the Chinese government last year have already hit European supply chains, and Europe, while expanding its armaments, is unwilling to keep the supply of critical raw materials in China's hands.
2026-10-14
According to @clashreport citing remarks by Elon Musk, Musk said that last year China restricted exports of magnets used in electric motors, causing Tesla's Optimus robot project to be delayed by two to three months. Musk stressed that even if China cuts off supplies, the United States needs to ensure that it can produce robots on its own.
2026-10-13
On October 13, the IMF released its latest World Economic Outlook, raising Taiwan's 2026 growth forecast from 5.2% in April to 10.7%, while lowering the mainland's forecast by 0.1 percentage points to 4.5%; Taiwan's growth is mainly driven by demand for AI and advanced chips.
2026-10-11
According to a report by the Financial Times, China's economic growth in the second quarter fell to 4.3%, below the full-year target range of 4.5% to 5%. Retail sales and fixed-asset investment were weak, and the property market has been in a downturn for more than five years.
2026-10-11
Srinivasan, head of the International Monetary Fund's Asia Department, noted that China's growth model of relying on investment, manufacturing and exports is approaching its limits, and suggested improving the social security system, adjusting local government incentives and the land-finance model, warning that otherwise the country could fall into a prolonged slowdown.
2026-10-11
Research by the Conference Board shows that interest payments on the debt of China's central and local governments are expected to reach 1.4 trillion yuan in 2026, far exceeding the roughly 348 billion yuan in 2014; central government debt service is projected to rise to 19.2% of the general public budget.
2026-10-08
On October 8, The Wall Street Journal reported that, facing difficulties such as the real estate downturn, insufficient domestic demand, and second-quarter GDP growth slowing to 4.3%, the stimulus measures introduced by the Chinese government — including mortgage subsidies and capital injections into banks — lean toward caution and are unlikely to fundamentally reverse the economic weakness.
2026-10-01
On October 1, Reuters reported, citing people familiar with the matter, that over recent weeks the U.S. Department of Commerce has slowed approvals of export licenses for aviation parts to China, restricting the number of parts that COMAC is allowed to import in order to prevent stockpiling, hoping to trade this for concessions on rare earths and other issues.
2026-09-30
On September 30, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) published a new book, "Toward a New Growth Model for the Chinese Economy," on its official website, pointing out that linking local officials' performance evaluation to GDP targets has led to infrastructure expansion, land-sale financing, and the accumulation of local government financing vehicle (LGFV) debt. LGFV cash flows can cover only about one-quarter to one-third of interest payments. The book recommends improving social security, advancing household registration (hukou) reform, and increasing the progressivity of the tax system.
2026-09-29
The fiscal interest subsidy policy was officially announced on September 29 and went into effect at the start of the National Day holiday; combined with developer discounts, it drove up new home transaction volumes in some key cities.
2026-09-29
An X account named “所谓伊人在水一方” uploaded a video of a female teacher talking about student safety, in which she reminds high school students to guard against strangers, vehicles, and the risk of losing contact.
2026-09-29
On September 29, US Ambassador to China David Perdue reposted a graphic and text from the embassy dated the 27th, saying that China has imposed export licensing on rare earths and magnets since April last year, extended it worldwide in October last year, and now makes it illegal for companies to relocate out of China, allowing for arrest and prosecution, seizure of assets, and exit restrictions.
2026-09-28
Japan's Teikoku Databank announced a survey on September 28, listing the revised Counter-Espionage Law, rare earth export restrictions, and price competition with Chinese government-backed companies as business risks in China, and pointing out that deteriorating China-Japan relations and economic stagnation affect corporate decision-making.
2026
The video's author lists indicators from the first half of the year — contracting consumption, high-ranking officials falling from power, declines in fiscal revenue and household savings, and rising unemployment and credit defaults — claiming all have set historical records; no unified source can be found for any of the data.
2026-09-24
Reuters reported on September 24, citing Chinese customs data, that despite Xi Jinping's promise last year at the Busan summit to release key rare earths, China's yttrium exports to the US remained at zero in January, May, and June of 2026. The White House claimed in November 2025 that the agreement would effectively lift export controls, but China's suspension list did not include the measure that had placed yttrium under export licensing.
2026-09-23
US Treasury Secretary Bessent announced that the US and China have agreed to extend the trade truce, originally set to expire on November 10, to January 10, 2027, continuing negotiations on issues such as tariffs, fentanyl, soybeans, and rare earths.
Location: Washington, United States ·
Importance V ·
Verification: Official claim ·
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2026-09-18
In a conversation, Morgan Stanley's Chief Economist for China, Xing Ziqiang, pointed out that China's social security expenditure accounts for only about 8% of GDP, far below the OECD average of 25% and the levels of developing countries with similar per capita GDP, and also mentioned group disparities in the enjoyment of public services.
2026-09-19
On September 19, Huang Yiping, a member of the Monetary Policy Committee of the People's Bank of China, stated at the Beijing Economic Forum that artificial intelligence may exacerbate the contradiction between China's overcapacity and insufficient household purchasing power. He pointed out that distribution leaning toward capital leads to weak demand, and suggested increasing the proportion of household income through market-oriented reforms, while the central government borrows to repair the balance sheets of local governments and enterprises.
2026-09-20
Data from the General Administration of Customs of China shows that China's exports of rare earth magnets to the U.S. in August fell 21% from July to 512 tons. Ahead of a meeting between Trump and Xi, outside analysts suggest the Chinese side may use the expansion of rare earth exports as a negotiating chip. In addition, U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng held a meeting on trade and artificial intelligence issues, and both sides agreed to further consultations.
2026-09-19
At the Tsinghua Wudaokou Chief Economists Forum, four scholars—Lin Yifu, Yu Yongding, Yao Yang, and Li Xunlei—concentrated their efforts to call on the central government to adopt expansionary fiscal policies and bail out local government debt.
2026-09-15
On September 15, The Wall Street Journal published an article pointing out that while China can avoid a sudden financial crisis through its state-controlled financial system, the losses from real estate and bank bad loans will not disappear. Economist Michael Pettis believes that the losses will be borne by ordinary residents in the long run through low deposit returns and shrinking asset values, rather than manifesting in public forms such as bank failures.
2026-09-17
An NPR interview with US and Chinese officials on September 17 disclosed that ahead of the Trump-Xi meeting, the two sides were still jockeying over issues such as state banquet seating (about 100 tables versus about 200 people in 2015), rare earth export controls and the delay of chip restrictions (expiring on November 10), and an order for 200 Boeing aircraft. China once proposed extending the suspension of rare earth controls until January 2029, but the US side rejected it.
2026-09-15
On September 15, German Chancellor Merz criticized China at the Berlin Entrepreneurs' Conference, stating that through state intervention, overcapacity, and export subsidies, China has driven the EU's trade deficit with China to over 300 billion euros. EU leaders plan to discuss in October whether to deploy trade defense instruments.
2026-09-15
Wen Bin, chief economist at China Minsheng Bank, published a column on September 15 saying that the financing structure in August continued to optimize and better match new quality productive forces; the claim is accused of masking the contraction of credit in the private sector.
2026-09-04
Reuters reported on September 4, citing sources, that some Chinese rare earth suppliers, even while holding export licenses, are refusing to ship to the US out of concern that Beijing could hold them accountable or that the materials could be resold to restricted end users; the total number of companies involved could not be confirmed.
2026-09-04
On September 4, 2026, Musk posted to announce that the motors of Tesla's Cybercab robotaxi have completely freed themselves from reliance on rare-earth metals, seen as a key technological breakthrough in responding to China's supply-chain control over rare-earth export restrictions.
2026-09
As the lives of ordinary people grow ever harder, the Chinese Communist Party authorities seem to turn a blind eye to their suffering, continuing to tout a bright outlook for China’s economy and calling on all sectors of society to revel in economic prosperity.
2026-09
US Ambassador to China David Perdue has posted repeatedly on social media, accusing China of weaponizing rare earths and other critical materials and holding the whole world hostage, stressing that he will never accept living in a business world where one must bow and scrape to China.
2026-09
According to a South China Morning Post report on October 8 citing people familiar with the matter, when Trump met Xi Jinping in Washington in September, he urged China to lift export restrictions to Japan including rare earths, saying they threatened US industry and violated the China-US Busan trade truce agreement, and also pushed for a meeting between Xi Jinping and Takaichi Sanae, but Xi Jinping did not respond actively, instead warning of an increased risk of the rise of Japanese militarism.
2026-09
In September 2026, Reuters published the article "How Unassuming Yttrium Became the Focus of a Global Dispute," revealing that China has imposed export controls on yttrium since April 2025, with exports to the US repeatedly disrupted and capped (60 tons in March 2026, 29 tons in July), and noting that Japan has faced an informal embargo and the EU has demanded that China resolve the issue before October.
2026-09
In the first 8 months of 2026, securities transaction stamp duty grew nearly twofold year-on-year. Funds mainly changed hands among households, brokerages, the fiscal authorities and insurance companies, without generating any new investment.
2026-09
At the recent Tsinghua PBC School Forum, economists within the system, including Lin Yifu, Yu Yongding, Yao Yang, and Li Xunlei, rarely criticized economic policy en masse. Yu Yongding said the central government's books are clean while local governments are a complete mess, and called on the central government to issue bonds to replace local debt.
2026-08-23
People’s Daily continues to publish “Zhong Caiwen” articles, claiming that China’s economy has shown “strong resilience.”
2026-08-23
Chinese state media published an article characterizing the 4.7% economic growth in the first half of the year as high-quality, arguing that it is in line with the current economic reality.
2026-08-22
People’s Daily published an article signed “Zhong Caiwen,” arguing that observations of China’s economy should not focus only on single-month data.
2026-08-18
On August 18, 2026, Nikkei Chinese reported that due to China's export controls on rare earths to Japan, Japan's total rare earth imports from China in the first half of 2026 had already dropped sharply to 20% of the same period in 2024.
2026-08-17
Li Qiang presided over a State Council meeting, calling for persisting in expanding domestic demand, focusing on the principal contradiction, seizing on areas with long industrial chains and large scale, and promoting the domestic economic cycle and consumption upgrading.
2026-08-17
On August 17, 2026, China's National Bureau of Statistics rarely broke its long-standing convention of releasing data in the morning, postponing the July national economic data to 3 p.m., after the A-share market closed, sparking market concerns that the data was under pressure.
2026-08-06
The yield on one-year US Treasury bonds reached 4.6%, compared to 1.3% for a five-year fixed deposit at China Construction Bank and 1.7% for savings bonds issued by the Ministry of Finance.
2026-08-01
On August 1, 2026, Qiushi, the journal of the CCP Central Committee, published an article candidly acknowledging that there is a temperature gap between macroeconomic data and the micro-level experience of the ordinary public, conceding that intensifying competition for jobs and improvements in income have fallen short of expectations, sparking widespread social discussion.
2026-07-30
On July 30, 2026, the CCP Central Committee Politburo held a meeting to analyze the economic situation. The Wall Street Journal reported that the meeting emphasized supply-side optimization and the implementation of existing policies, sending a clear signal that there is no intention to unleash flood-style massive stimulus in the face of slowing economic growth.
2026-07-29
People's Daily published guidance opinions, releasing a strong signal of investigating the Ctrip monopoly case and cracking down on antitrust involution, drawing outside attention to the authorities' further rectification of foreign and private enterprises.
2026-07-24
The CCP Central Committee held a symposium with non-Party figures at Zhongnanhai. Presiding over the meeting, Xi Jinping said that China's economy is currently facing certain difficulties and challenges.
2026-07-24
At a symposium with non-Party figures, Xi Jinping acknowledged for the first time in his own words that China's economy is experiencing a severe downturn. The news is regarded as an important milestone, foreshadowing the gravity of China's economic situation.
2026-07-22
On July 22, 2026, Zhang Enhui, Secretary of the Changchun Municipal Party Committee, presided over an enlarged meeting of the Municipal Party Committee Standing Committee. The official communiqué stated that the city's economic development is currently facing "unprecedented difficulties and challenges."
Location: Changchun, Jilin ·
Importance IV ·
Verification: Official claim ·
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2026-07-22
On July 22, 2026, the CCP Changchun Municipal Committee held an expanded standing committee meeting to conduct an in-depth analysis of the economic situation in the first half of the year, and the official announcement rarely admitted that the city's economic development is facing unprecedented difficulties and severe challenges.
2026-07-15
On July 15, 2026, China's National Bureau of Statistics released data showing that national GDP grew 4.7% year-on-year in the first half of 2026, while growth in the second quarter slowed to 4.3%, falling short of the full-year target, with real estate investment down 18% year-on-year.
2026-07-15
China announced that GDP grew 4.3% in the second quarter. Nominal growth exceeded real growth for the first time in 13 quarters, mainly driven by price increases upstream.
2026-07-08
A China economic briefing released by the World Bank on July 8 pointed out that China's domestic demand will continue to shrink and housing prices will fall, with the root cause being that the government of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) uses 43% of its budget for investment while underfunding people's livelihood.
2026-07-07
Renowned macroeconomist Gao Shanwen has passed away due to illness at the age of 55. He previously worked at institutions such as Peking University and Guotai Junan Securities, and was well-known for his profound insights and warnings regarding the Chinese economy.
2026-07-04
The quarterly meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee of the People's Bank of China adjusted the economic tone from "steady progress" to "toward the new, toward the better," and listed structural optimization as one of the challenges facing the economy.
2026-07
China's official data shows Q2 GDP grew 4.3% year-on-year, the slowest pace since the end of 2022.
2026-07
The article states that Beijing has adopted measures such as retaliating against the EU's Net-Zero Industry Act, restricting foreign direct investment, and implementing export controls on rare earths to Japan to maintain its export markets.
2026-07
The market widely expects China's year-on-year GDP growth in the second quarter of 2026 to fall back to 4.2% to 4.5%, while the Bank of China Institute of International Finance has forecast 4.7%.
2026-06-18
The website of the Chinese Communist Party's theoretical journal Qiushi published a commentary article titled "Boost Consumption with Greater Vigor," proposing measures such as increasing residents' income, improving the social security system, rescuing the real estate sector, and repairing residents' balance sheets.
2026-05-18
Two Japanese employees working at the China branches of major Japanese heavy electrical machinery giants were caught red-handed at Dalian Customs, suspected of concealing dysprosium and terbium—heavy rare earths used in high-end military applications—inside large machinery to smuggle them out of the country.
2026-04-25
Justin Yifu Lin, dean of the Institute of New Structural Economics at Peking University, said in Hefei that China is only 135 dollars short of the high-income country threshold and could cross it by next year at the latest.
2026-03-16
Australian rare earths company Lynas has reached a preliminary agreement with the US Pentagon to supply heavy rare earths, which have long been controlled by China.
Location: Washington, United States ·
Importance IV ·
Verification: Verified ·
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2026-01-19
China's statistical department announced that the nominal GDP for 2025 is approximately 140 trillion yuan, a figure used to estimate the economic losses caused by information control.
2026
According to International Monetary Fund estimates, the actual scale of the Chinese government's debt in 2026 will be about 200 trillion yuan, reaching 135% of GDP.
2026
Based on calculations using International Monetary Fund data, China’s actual government debt ratio is projected to exceed 200% in 2026.
2026
Based on data from the International Monetary Fund, the video estimates that China's fiscal deficit in 2026 is expected to exceed 15%.
2026
Data from China's Ministry of Commerce shows that after reaching a peak of 1.23 trillion in 2024, the national actual utilized foreign investment fell to 747.6 billion last year, a year-on-year decrease of 40%, and has continued to decline by 7% this year on a low base.
2025-12
According to estimates in the Southwestern University of Finance and Economics' "2025 Report on the Fiscal Conditions of Provinces, Cities, and Counties," in 2024 the average fiscal self-sufficiency rate of the country's 2,774 county-level areas was about 38%, with the lowest county at only about 1%.
2025-11-01
On November 1, 2025, the White House claimed that the US-China agreement would effectively lift relevant rare earth export controls through general licenses; but the suspension list China subsequently released did not include the measure implemented that April placing yttrium under export licensing management.
2025-10-09
On October 9, 2025, the Ministry of Commerce of China announced the strictest rare earth export control measures to date, and Trump immediately announced an additional 100% tariff on China; after a ceasefire was reached in early November, China suspended the measure.
2025-04-04
China has implemented export controls on medium and heavy rare earths since April 2025.
2025
In 2025, China's high-tech industry actually used 241.8 billion yuan in foreign investment, down 15.6% year on year.
2025
China-Brazil bilateral trade volume reached $188 billion in 2025, ranking first in Latin America, yet Brazil's GDP growth rate over the past 15 years ranks second to last among major Latin American countries.
2025
Despite the Chinese ban, Japan's total seafood exports recovered in 2025 and hit a record high of 423.1 billion yen, a year-on-year increase of 17.2 percent.
2025
Statistics bulletin of the National Health Commission shows that in 2025 there were 15.109 million voluntary blood donation visits nationwide, with a donation rate of 10.9 per 1,000 people; all three key indicators dropped by about 11% compared with 2023; in 2024, donations were already more than 1 million visits fewer than in 2023.
2024-12-03
In a speech at the end of 2024, Gao Shanwen expressed sensitive views on the cyclical bubbles, consumption structure, actual growth rate, and future low growth of the Chinese economy. The speech was subsequently banned, marking his final public address.
2023
Last year, daily rental rates in China's robot rental market ranged from 5,000 to 15,000 yuan, used mainly for performance-type events such as mall openings, auto show booths, and warm-up acts at annual galas.
2022-10
University of Chicago scholar Martinez, using satellite nighttime light data, found that annual GDP growth in authoritarian countries is overstated by an average of about 35%, and that China's figure may have been overstated by about one third over the past two decades.
2018-01-11
In January 2018, Tianjin Binhai New Area switched its GDP statistical basis from registered to local, revising its 2016 GDP from 1,000.231 billion yuan to 665.4 billion yuan, a drop of about one third; the Tianjin Municipal Bureau of Statistics said this had no impact on the city's overall GDP.
2012
The sum of GDP figures reported by provinces and municipalities in 2012 was 57.66 trillion yuan, about 10% higher than the 51.93 trillion yuan calculated by the National Bureau of Statistics; the bureau said the difference was mainly due to double counting in the tiered accounting system and differences in raw data.
2007-03
The then-Secretary of the Liaoning Provincial Party Committee, Li Keqiang, told the US Ambassador that Liaoning's GDP figures were man-made and for reference only, and that he only looked at electricity consumption, railway cargo volume, and bank loans.
2001-12-11
On December 11, 2001, China officially became a member of the World Trade Organization after an agreement was reached at the ministerial conference in Doha.
1993-12
In late 1993, China determined the plan to unify the RMB exchange rate, merging the official and market rates. The relevant reforms were officially implemented the following year.
1976
In October 1976, the ten-year-long Cultural Revolution ended with the "downfall of the Gang of Four"; the prolonged political campaigns had a severe impact on China's economy.