On October 26, Bloomberg reported on a Morgan Stanley study saying that the Chinese stock market may not have bottomed out yet, and that offshore Chinese stocks could fall another 10%–15% before approaching historically low valuations, with weak economic consumption, pressure on e-commerce, and fears of tax-triggered selling of trusts intensifying the adjustment.
Bloomberg reported on October 25 that China's stock market has shrunk by about $3.5 trillion from its high earlier this year in May, with the CSI 300 index falling into a bear market the previous week, as weak consumption and price wars squeeze corporate profits.
According to a report by Yicai on October 22, from January to September 2026, nationwide urban and rural residents' household electricity consumption was 123.46 billion kilowatt-hours, down 0.3% year-on-year — the first decline for the same period in nearly ten years.
On October 19, the National Bureau of Statistics released data on residents' income and consumption expenditure for the first three quarters of 2026: the national per capita disposable income was 34,230 yuan, up 5.3% year on year; per capita consumption expenditure was 22,354 yuan, up 3.6% year on year, lower than the income growth rate.
On October 13, the IMF released its latest World Economic Outlook, raising Taiwan's 2026 growth forecast from 5.2% in April to 10.7%, while lowering the mainland's forecast by 0.1 percentage points to 4.5%; Taiwan's growth is mainly driven by demand for AI and advanced chips.
According to a report by the Financial Times, China's economic growth in the second quarter fell to 4.3%, below the full-year target range of 4.5% to 5%. Retail sales and fixed-asset investment were weak, and the property market has been in a downturn for more than five years.
Srinivasan, head of the International Monetary Fund's Asia Department, noted that China's growth model of relying on investment, manufacturing and exports is approaching its limits, and suggested improving the social security system, adjusting local government incentives and the land-finance model, warning that otherwise the country could fall into a prolonged slowdown.
Research by the Conference Board shows that interest payments on the debt of China's central and local governments are expected to reach 1.4 trillion yuan in 2026, far exceeding the roughly 348 billion yuan in 2014; central government debt service is projected to rise to 19.2% of the general public budget.
According to a Nikkei Asia report on October 10, as of the end of September Kweichow Moutai's market cap stood at 1.57 trillion yuan, with its share price down 43% from its peak. The report attributed this to the economic slowdown, falling housing prices making the wealthy cautious about investing, and the tightening of anti-corruption enforcement and regulation of extravagance and waste in May 2025 hitting demand.
On October 8, The Wall Street Journal reported that, facing difficulties such as the real estate downturn, insufficient domestic demand, and second-quarter GDP growth slowing to 4.3%, the stimulus measures introduced by the Chinese government — including mortgage subsidies and capital injections into banks — lean toward caution and are unlikely to fundamentally reverse the economic weakness.
The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) officially released economic data for September and the third quarter, showing exports hitting a record high in a single month, PPI rising 5% year-on-year, and new aggregate financing of 3.55 trillion yuan, presenting a recovery narrative; however, at the micro level, new household loans stood at zero, and profits of mid- and downstream firms were severely eroded by the scissors gap.
The Ministry of Culture and Tourism released data for the first half of 2026: domestic residents made 5.4% more trips year on year, while total travel spending rose 2.0%; a rough calculation based on the growth rates puts average spending per trip down about 3.2% year on year.
On October 1, Time Finance reported that Zhang Qiang (a pseudonym), a homestay operator at a scenic area in Jiangsu, said that three years ago the best room type could sell for 700–800 yuan a night during the National Day holiday, but now even listing it at 580 yuan still brings no orders; more than 100 homestays cluster in his area, making price competition fierce.
On October 1, Qilu Evening News reported that Hou Mingjing, marketing director of Shandong Kairui Commercial Group, said that this year's National Day wedding banquets generally have around ten tables, with the larger ones having around twenty, and that the per-table budget has fallen from 1,599–2,000 yuan to generally just over 1,000 yuan.
On September 30, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) published a new book, "Toward a New Growth Model for the Chinese Economy," on its official website, pointing out that linking local officials' performance evaluation to GDP targets has led to infrastructure expansion, land-sale financing, and the accumulation of local government financing vehicle (LGFV) debt. LGFV cash flows can cover only about one-quarter to one-third of interest payments. The book recommends improving social security, advancing household registration (hukou) reform, and increasing the progressivity of the tax system.