Hu Jintao's Counterattack! The Plenary Session Forces Xi Jinping to Read an Abdication Decree; Deleting 'Two Establishes' but Keeping 'Xi Core'—Behind It Is a Life-Saving Deal! Where Does Expulsion from the Party Stand? [Jiang Feng Vision 20260926 Episode 498]

This article analyzes the upcoming Fifth Plenary Session of the 20th CCP Central Committee and the high-level power struggle behind it. It points out that under the leadership of Hu Jintao and the coordination of party elders, the plenary session plans to pass a resolution that deletes the "Two Establishes" while retaining the title of "Core," and forces Xi Jinping to personally take the stage to read it. The article explores why the plenary session might not immediately expel him from the party, but instead complete a political transition through retaining his party membership and holding him accountable through discipline, while also mentioning the motion to investigate the Li Keqiang case and future political trajectories.

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Hello friends, welcome to Jiang Feng Perspective. On October 26, the Fifth Plenary Session is about to open, and a decision on several major issues concerning comprehensive and strict party governance is to be passed at the meeting. Hearing the name, you might think Xi is going to use strict party governance to punish people again, but this time the one being disciplined is himself. Rumors outside the wall indicate that the first stroke to be crossed out from this draft is the four characters that have weighed on the entire party for the past five years: the "Two Establishes." Moreover, the tone for this draft was set by Hu Jintao, who was escorted out of the hall back then. Even more ruthless is that Hu Jintao will not let anyone else read this draft that deletes Xi's "Two Establishes"; Xi himself must walk up to the stage on the opening day of the plenary session and read it out sentence by sentence in front of more than 300 members and alternate members of the CCP Central Committee.

Now look at the state banquet in the East Room of the White House on the evening of September 24. Trump raised his glass and publicly presented a bald eagle statue, specially adding that it was designed by Melania and himself. When it was Xi's turn to return a gift, his hands were empty, and he couldn't produce anything on the spot. As the head of a major power, he could only dredge up the redwood trees given by Nixon more than 50 years ago in his toast to cover up the embarrassment. With just over a month left before the US midterm elections, he actually recited Trump's campaign slogan, "Make America Great Again," in public at the White House. Why is he in such a sorry state? You might think he is being stingy, but no, it is because he is no longer the one calling the shots this time. Over the past decade or more, whenever he went abroad, which business leaders to take along, what state gifts to give, and how much money to promise to scatter were always decided by him alone. But this time, his accompanying list of entrepreneurs was directly shot down by the veteran coordination organization of Beijing, and Wen Jiabao even set a strict rule for him prohibiting massive money-scattering, requiring everything to be submitted for approval first. All he could take away was the speech written for him by others. On the White House guest list that evening, there were two other people: Tang Fangyu, director of the Policy Research Office who wrote his speeches, and Zhou Hongxu, the head of the security bureau who followed him closely. In other words, every sentence he uttered in the White House and every step he took was being watched by others on behalf of Beijing. This trip to the White House has turned him into a political zombie in the eyes of the world.

But the real killer move is not in Washington; before the special plane returning to Beijing even landed, the trap in Beijing had already tightened. Today, let us peel back the layers to see how Hu Jintao took up the pen to reverse the verdict, how Zeng Qinghong's conservative faction secretly betrayed him, and under what circumstances this unprecedented political strangulation in Zhongnanhai will lead to his expulsion from the Party. You might think that, according to the rules, it should be the General Secretary who makes the explanation for the decision at the plenary session—he cannot avoid it. In fact, this matter has always been about choosing the person. In 1981, the Resolution on Certain Questions in the History of Our Party since the Founding of the People's Republic of China, passed at the Sixth Plenary Session of the 11th Central Committee, did not have a separate explanation section at all; the seven Standing Committee members presided together, and the resolution was submitted directly for a vote. At that time, the nominal Party Chairman was Hua Guofeng, but the one who made the major decisions throughout was CCP Vice Chairman Deng Xiaoping. The resolution even named Hua Guofeng, criticizing his "Two Whatevers." The person sitting in the top position watched as others set the tone in a draft that included and criticized him. In 2003, the Third Plenary Session of the 16th Central Committee passed a decision on the economic system, and it was Premier Wen Jiabao who stood up to give the explanation. The General Secretary at that time was Hu Jintao. In 2009, the Fourth Plenary Session of the 17th Central Committee passed a decision on Party management, and the one who gave the explanation was Xi Jinping—he was the Vice President of the state at the time, not the General Secretary. Who is chosen to read the explanation is decided by the person in charge. At the Third Plenary Session of the 18th Central Committee in 2013, Xi read a sentence in the explanation for the first time: "I served as the team leader." In the more than ten years since then, for every plenary session decision, he was the team leader and he was the one giving the explanation. That was because he held the power and chose himself. This time, the one doing the choosing is Hu Jintao, and the one Hu Jintao chose is still Xi. This is called "using his own method to treat him." Why did Hu Jintao insist that he be the one to read it? The first reason is that reading it means acknowledging it. If someone else read it, even if it were Hu Chunhua, whom Hu Jintao personally groomed, in a few years Xi's people could jump out and say it was forced upon him by others. If the explanation of the decision is read out of Xi's own mouth, this decision becomes his personal recommendation to the plenary session. The first paragraph of the explanation for a plenary session decision traditionally mentions the drafting group; if he follows the old rules and reads it, he will still read that same sentence: "I served as the team leader." In reality, even if his name is still on it, the one holding the pen is Hu Jintao's person. According to leaks, from the beginning to the end of the entire explanation, the four characters of the "Two Establishes" do not appear; what might have been added are old terms from the Hu Jintao era, such as "collective leadership" and "intra-party democracy." In front of more than 300 Central Committee members and alternate members, not mentioning the "Two Establishes" is equivalent to him personally abolishing those four characters. The second reason, as I told you last time, is that Xi wanted to check into the 301 Hospital before the plenary session, using the excuse of illness to avoid this session. Hu Jintao certainly could not allow that; he must not let him enter the 301 Hospital. The Central Security Bureau Director Zhou Hongxu, who I just mentioned, also attended the White House dinner, and that was exactly for this purpose. The Security Bureau Director followed him closely the whole way, watching him to ensure he did not hide in the 301 Hospital. Although it is an old rule for the Central Security Bureau Director to accompany visits, Zhou Hongxu is a man groomed by Zhang Youxia, and Zhang Youxia's Party membership was revoked by the Politburo just two days before Xi went abroad. The man Zhang Youxia groomed will not open the door of the 301 Hospital for him. The third reason is that letting Xi read it himself can also intimidate his own faction. On September 22nd and 23rd, the Central Committee dismissed three provincial Party secretaries in one breath: Wang Junzheng of Tibet, Liang Yanshun of Anhui, and Liu Ning of Henan. They are all people who rose up following Xi over these years, originally hoping to enter the Politburo at the 21st National Congress; now, their new appointments are nowhere to be found, and they are just left hanging. They have only one thing left: their vote as Central Committee members at the plenary session. On the opening day, they sat below, listening to their old superior standing on the stage, reading the draft that had deleted the "Two Establishes" sentence by sentence. If their old superior has acknowledged it himself, how could they still foolishly carry the burden for Xi? When it comes time to vote on this decision, their hands will not be slower than anyone else's. To collect these three votes, Hu Jintao does not need to send anyone to negotiate; once Xi stands on the stage, the words have already been spoken for Hu Jintao. Therefore, friends, as for who reads the explanation, Hu Jintao has chosen Xi; this explanation of the plenary session decision is the abdication edict that Xi read out loud himself in front of the plenary session.

Bu siapa sebenarnya yang menulis pidato yang harus ia bacakan sendiri selama sebulan terakhir ini? Jamuan kenegaraan di Gedung Putih merilis daftar tamu, di mana ada satu nama di kolom pihak Tiongkok yang tidak dapat ditemukan dalam siaran pers Xinhua News Agency, yang hanya menyebutkan Cai Qi, Wang Yi, dan He Lifeng, diikuti dengan kata "dan lain-lain" untuk merangkumnya. Orang ini bernama Tang Fangyu, yang merupakan Direktur Kantor Penelitian Kebijakan Pusat. Anda mungkin mengira ia ikut untuk melihat dunia, tetapi sebenarnya ia ikut untuk mengawasi mulut Xi Jinping. Slogan kampanye yang dibacakan Xi Jinping untuk Trump di Gedung Putih dituliskan untuknya oleh Kantor Penelitian Kebijakan. Untuk apa Kantor Penelitian Kebijakan itu? Keputusan pleno dan laporan kongres partai—tidak ada anggota Komite Tetap yang akan membungkuk di meja dan menulisnya kata demi kata; orang-orang yang benar-benar memegang pena adalah di sinilah tempatnya. Dua laporan untuk Kongres Nasional ke-19 dan ke-20 dipimpin penyusunannya oleh direktur sebelumnya, Jiang Jinquan. Pada Desember 2025, Jiang Jinquan pensiun dari Kongres Rakyat karena usianya, dan orang yang menggantikannya adalah wakil direktur eksekutif asli dari Kantor Penelitian Kebijakan, Tang Fangyu, orang Hu Jintao. Pada Juli tahun ini, ada lagi desas-desus di luar Tembok bahwa Jiang Jinquan telah dibawa oleh Komisi Inspeksi Disiplin Pusat. Sekarang, orang yang memegang pena ini adalah orang yang dipilih oleh Hu Jintao. Mengapa pena ini begitu penting? Dalam siaran pers Xinhua News Agency pada 21 September, terdapat satu baris teks kecil yang mencolok: keputusan rapat menyatakan bahwa setelah dilakukan revisi berdasarkan pendapat yang dibahas dalam rapat kali ini, teks tersebut akan diajukan ke Pleno Kelima Komite Sentral ke-20 untuk ditinjau. Artinya, apa yang disetujui oleh Politbiro dengan mengangkat tangan pada hari itu hanyalah draf awal, dan frasa-frasa yang mematikan itu direvisi kalimat demi kalimat pada bulan berikutnya. Setelah direvisi, teks tersebut tidak perlu dikirim kembali ke Politbiro untuk mengangkat tangan sekali lagi. Meja siapa yang pertama kali dikirimkan draf setelah direvisi, dan bagaimana draf tersebut dibagikan pada pleno, semuanya ditentukan oleh Biro Sekretariat Kantor Umum. Kepala Biro Sekretariat awalnya dijabat bersama oleh Wakil Direktur Kantor Umum Kong Shaoxun. Anda mungkin tidak mengingat nama ini, tetapi Anda pernah melihat orang ini: pada upacara penutupan Kongres Nasional ke-20 pada tahun 2022, di antara dua orang yang berjalan ke sisi Hu Jintao dan membawanya keluar dari tempat rapat, ada salah satunya. Pada 29 Agustus, Kong Shaoxun dipindahkan ke Gansu, dan Biro Sekretariat digantikan oleh orang Wen Jiabao. Adapun Direktur Kantor Umum Cai Qi, akhir-akhir ini ia mengikuti Xi Jinping di Washington, sehingga ia tidak dapat menjangkau urusan revisi draf di pihak Beijing. Bahkan jika ia tetap tinggal di Beijing, di bawah komandonya, tidak ada lagi satu pun orang yang menulis draf, mengirim draf, dan mengatur urusan rapat yang mendengarkannya. Oleh karena itu, kawan-kawan, nada seperti apa yang akan dituliskan dalam draf ini—orang nomor satu secara nominal tidak lagi memiliki keputusan akhir. Orang yang memegang pena adalah orang yang dipilih oleh Hu Jintao, orang yang mengirim draf adalah orang Wen Jiabao, dan bahkan topiknya dikeluarkan dengan menggunakan kata-katanya. "Tata kelola Partai yang komprehensif dan ketat" adalah slogan yang diserukan oleh Xi Jinping sendiri selama 12 tahun, tetapi akibatnya Xi Jinping bahkan tidak dapat menemukan alasan untuk mengatakan tidak. Draf tersebut ditulis oleh orang-orang Hu Jintao, dan goresan pena pertama yang akan mereka coret adalah "Dua Menetapkan".

Namun, keempat karakter ini bahkan tidak dapat ditulis ke dalam Konstitusi Partai ketika Xi Jinping berada di puncak kejayaannya. Mengapa hal itu tidak dapat dituliskan? Kita akan membahas masalah ini setelah jeda iklan.

"Dua Menetapkan" ditulis dalam Resolusi Sejarah pada tahun 2021. Pemimpin kelompok penyusunnya adalah Xi Jinping, dan orang yang berdiri di pleno untuk memberikan penjelasan juga adalah dirinya. Selama lima tahun ini, setiap rapat besar maupun kecil harus membacakannya terlebih dahulu di bagian awal. Namun, keempat karakter ini tidak pernah masuk ke dalam Konstitusi Partai dari CCP. Ketika merevisi Konstitusi Partai pada Kongres Nasional ke-20 pada tahun 2022, orang-orang di luar semuanya mengira bahwa "Dua Menetapkan" kali ini pasti akan dituliskan, tetapi akibatnya tidak ada satu karakter pun di dalam teks utama Konstitusi Partai. Rapat penutupan hari itu yang menyetujui Konstitusi Partai dengan mengangkat tangan adalah rapat yang sama di mana Hu Jintao dibawa keluar dari tempat rapat. Ia bahkan dapat meminta Hu Jintao pergi di depan umum, tetapi ia tidak dapat memasukkan keempat karakter ini ke dalam Konstitusi Partai. Mengapa? Begitu "Dua Menetapkan" masuk ke dalam Konstitusi Partai, hal itu sama saja dengan menempatkannya pada tingkat yang sama dengan Pemikiran Mao Zedong, dan setelah itu tidak ada seorang pun yang dapat menggoyahkannya. Jika Konstitusi Partai ingin diubah, mengandalkan orang-orangnya sendiri saja tidak cukup; jika pihak para veteran tidak mengangguk, hal itu tidak akan bisa diloloskan. Jiang Zemin masih hidup pada saat itu, dan pada akhirnya kedua belah pihak saling membuat kompromi: teks utama Konstitusi Partai hanya menuliskan "Dua Menjaga", sedangkan "Dua Menetapkan" dimasukkan ke dalam resolusi tentang revisi Konstitusi Partai pada kongres tersebut. Oleh karena itu, istilah-istilah di luar Konstitusi Partai seperti "Dua Menetapkan" ini, selama keputusan pleno kali ini tidak lagi menyebutkannya, maka tidak akan memiliki status lagi di masa depan.

Why did Hu Jintao want to delete the "Two Establishments" in the first place? Because the "Two Establishments" state that Old Xi is correct, and his ideas are also correct. As long as this sentence remains in the document, the same document cannot state that he did anything wrong. For example, during the three years of zero-COVID, when ordinary people were locked in their homes and the economy was dragged down, if the "Two Establishments" were still mentioned, who would dare to write this account into the document? To write it would be to go against the "Two Establishments." Therefore, these four characters must be removed first before one can settle accounts with him item by item. To delete the "Two Establishments," four other members of the Standing Committee must nod in agreement: Zhao Leji, Wang Huning, Ding Xuexiang, and Li Xi. Behind these four people stands an elder, Zeng Qinghong. The conservative faction we are talking about today is represented by these five people. They are not on the same page as Hu Jintao and Wen Jiabao, but none of them wants to be buried with Old Xi. What these five people want was already revealed on August 24. That day was nearly a month before the Politburo meeting to discuss the first draft of this decision. On that day, the central government held a summary meeting to review the six months of education on the "view of political achievements" conducted this year. Sitting on the stage and speaking was Cai Qi, the person closest to Old Xi. When the official report was published, one could flip through it from beginning to end and not find the four characters "Two Establishments," but another sentence was not missing a single word: "the Party Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping at its core." You might think it was a slip of the hand by the person who wrote the report, but that was Cai Qi's speech draft. In these years, who would dare to omit Old Xi's name from Cai Qi's draft? That day, besides Cai Qi, sitting on the stage were Secretary of the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection Li Xi and Minister of the Organization Department Shi Taifeng. This half-year of study and education was originally managed by the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection and the Organization Department. It was not up to Cai Qi alone to decide which sentences to keep and which to delete. What Cai Qi read out was the consensus reached by the Standing Committee members.

This is what the deal that the conservatives want to make with Hu Jintao looks like: drop the Two Establishes, but keep the core. During the meeting in August, they tested the waters with Cai Qi's mouth. Listening to both of these phrases, they sound like flattery toward him, but the difference lies in the fact that one expires while the other does not. The phrase "the Party Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping as the core" refers to the current term of the Party Central Committee—who is in charge right now. Once a person steps down, this phrase automatically expires by itself, without requiring anyone to delete it. When Jiang Zemin handed over the position of General Secretary in 2002, the phrasing in the newspapers from then on changed to "the Party Central Committee with Hu Jintao as General Secretary," while the line "the Party Central Committee with Comrade Jiang Zemin as the core" was never formally abolished in any meeting; it simply became a thing of the past, representing bygone days. When Hu Jintao stepped down in 2012, it was the exact same story: starting the very next day, the newspapers changed to reflect the new person. The Two Establishes are different. They state that the entire Party established his core position and established the guiding status of his thought. Once established, it is locked in; there is no mention of when it expires down the road. Even if Old Xi retires, as long as these four characters remain in the documents, whenever the next congress opens, the opening must still be read aloud first, and loyalty to him must still be pledged in the same way. Therefore, the conservatives do not feel any heartache over deleting the Two Establishes. After the 21st National Congress, regardless of who sits in that chair, no one wants to first pledge loyalty to someone who has already stepped down at every single meeting. As for the phrase about the core, the conservatives must keep it for their own sakes. Over these past few years, these members of the Standing Committee have raised their hands in support of several major decisions personally finalized by Old Xi. During the 2018 constitutional amendment that removed the term limits for the state presidency, Zhao Leji and Wang Huning were already members of the Standing Committee and raised their hands in support. When Old Xi secured his third term in 2022, all four of them raised their hands. This year, after Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli met their downfall, the Standing Committee held an ad hoc makeup meeting afterward at the Central Party School, and Li Xi sat there and was forced to nod. On September 21, two days before Old Xi left the country, he rushed the Political Bureau to expel Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli from the Party, fearing that the military might seek to reverse the verdict in the future, so they raised their hands in support once again. When raising their hands, what they relied on was a single sentence: he is the core. According to Party rules, following the core is the bounden duty of the Standing Committee members. Among these four people, the ones who rely on this phrase the most are Ding Xuexiang and Zhao Leji. Ding Xuexiang spent the longest time by Old Xi's side; during the half-year Old Xi served as Shanghai Municipal Party Committee Secretary, Ding was the Secretary-General of the Municipal Party Committee, and from 2017 to 2022, he served as the Director of the General Office of the CCP Central Committee—the documents Old Xi read every day, the memos he approved, and the meetings he held all had to pass through his hands first. He was the very first person to handle the decisions finalized by Old Xi over these years. As for Zhao Leji, from 2017 to 2022, he served as the Secretary of the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection, and the vast majority of the tigers caught during those five years were apprehended under the banner of the core. If the core were to no longer count, the families of those who were caught would all have grounds to come forward and voice grievances, and the very first person they would question is Zhao Leji, who used to be in charge of the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection. Keeping the phrase about the core in the plenary decision is equivalent to the plenary session acknowledging the account: over these years, Old Xi has been the core, so the decisions made over these years were finalized by the core, and the responsibility falls squarely upon his own head in the first place. Further down are the Fujian faction who run errands for him—Cai Qi, Chen Xi, and Wang Xiaohong of the Public Security Bureau. The members of the Standing Committee who followed along in raising their hands are considered those who adhered to the rules, so accountability cannot reach them. If the phrase about the core were also deleted, the plenary session would be equivalent to declaring that this core should never have been recognized back then, so what would that make of the people who raised their hands to follow him? It would make them accomplices who helped him commit wrongs. Hu Chunha was groomed firsthand by Hu Jintao, and people outside the firewall all say that the moment he comes to power, he will launch a political liquidation. When that day arrives, the list will include more than just those few from the Fujian faction, and not a single one of these four Standing Committee members will be able to run away. Therefore, keeping the core is about keeping a way out for these four Standing Committee members. In any case, the moment he steps down, this phrase will invalidate itself automatically. For the conservatives, it is equivalent to using a phrase that will inevitably become void sooner or later to buy themselves a ticket to safety.

The four members of the Standing Committee are calculating their own accounts, but behind them stands an elder, Zeng Qinghong. What is it that he wants? In August at Beidaihe, Zeng Qinghong proposed a price. According to reports from outside the Great Firewall, his proposal was: Xi should resign from all positions due to illness, while retaining the title of a fifth-generation leader. Past matters would not be pursued, and the cases regarding the death of Li Keqiang and the investigations into Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli would all be blamed on those few people from the Fujian faction. This proposal never made it to the table. The agenda for the plenary session was arranged by Wen Jiabao, who did not agree to it. The reason is simple: if past matters are not pursued, the case of Li Keqiang can never be investigated. Zeng Qinghong could not win anything at the meeting; all he could fight for were a few words in the draft—the phrase "with Comrade Xi Jinping at the core." He defended this phrase with righteous indignation. The first person to be called the "core" was Jiang Zemin. In 1989, Deng Xiaoping personally designated it, stating that the third generation must have a core, which was Jiang Zemin. Hu Jintao served as General Secretary for ten years, and the official title was always "the Party Central Committee with Comrade Hu Jintao as General Secretary." He was never called the "core" for a single day. It wasn't until 2016 that Xi took these two words back and placed them on his own head. Zeng Qinghong was Jiang Zemin's chief steward. The two words "core" are linked to Jiang Zemin's status. Since Hu Jintao himself was never called the core for a single day, Zeng felt no heartache in leaving these two words to the conservatives. As for how to delete them, Wang Huning had his own considerations. Jiang Zemin's "Three Represents," Hu Jintao's "Scientific Outlook on Development," and Xi's "Thought on the New Era" all came from Wang Huning's hand. Therefore, Wang Huning is not afraid of deleting these four words; what he fears is being named and criticized. Once named, the next question would be who drafted this theory for him back then. Throughout this year, he has been trying to distance himself. Last year, word spread that the documents for the 19th National Congress were led by Jiang Jinquan and put together with Cai Qi, and that he himself had long ceased managing the daily operations of the Policy Research Office. The 1981 Resolution on History specifically named and criticized Hua Guofeng, attacking his "Two Whatevers." At that time, Hua Guofeng was still sitting in the position of Party Chairman, listening to others criticize him during the plenary session. What Wang Huning wants is for this time not to follow the 1981 precedent. The deletion method he wants is to hold no criticism meetings and not to name anyone; the four words will simply no longer be mentioned and will quietly disappear. Can Xi escape by not being named? He cannot. The explanation was read by him personally when he took the stage. By not mentioning his own four words even once, it resonates louder than being named and criticized by others.

In this way, both sides took half a step back. What Hu Jintao wants is the future—to remove these four words from the entire Party so that no one can ever again dictate everything alone. What the conservatives want is the past—that the hands raised over these years will not be dug up for reckoning. The agreement consists of three points: "Two Establishments" is deleted without naming and criticizing; "with Comrade Xi Jinping at the core" is kept; and the hands raised by the Standing Committee members according to the rules over these years will not be pursued. Is this a bad deal for Hu Jintao? Not at all. Everything he wanted was achieved. With "Two Establishments" deleted, Xi's thought will no longer govern the entire Party in the future. The "core" phrase is kept, but once he resigns, it will automatically become void. What Hu Jintao gave up was a phrase with only a few days of shelf life, and what he got back was the assurance that no second "core" will emerge in the future. Because the "core" phrase was kept, Xi still walked onto the stage as General Secretary on the opening day, and it was he who read the explanation of the plenary session's decisions. With "Two Establishments" absent from the draft, once the draft was read, "Two Establishments" ceased to exist.

Next, will this plenary session expel him from the Chinese Communist Party (CCP)? Let's give the answer first: the Fifth Plenary Session will not expel him from the CCP. The first reason is that transaction we just mentioned. If the same resolution states at the beginning that the CCP Central Committee is with Xi Jinping as the core, and then states at the end that this core is expelled from the CCP, having those two statements on the same piece of paper would be a slap in the face. The conservatives are holding onto the core and refusing to let the plenary session go that far.

The second reason is the old rule of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) itself. In a hundred years, the only top leader to be expelled from the CCP was Chen Duxiu, and that was before the founding of the regime. After the founding of the regime, not a single top leader who stepped down was expelled. In 1981, Hua Guofeng resigned as party chairman and military commission chairman at the same plenary session, keeping one vice chairmanship, which he held until the 12th National Congress the following year. Hu Yaobang resigned as general secretary, and his position as a Politburo member was kept until his death. Zhao Ziyang was stripped of all posts, but his party membership was untouched; the plenary session only wrote a single sentence stating that his issues would continue to be investigated, and that investigation lasted until his death. Why not expel him? Once expelled, a person becomes an outsider, and party discipline no longer applies to them. By keeping his party membership, he still has to obey party discipline—he cannot say a single wrong word or take a single wrong step. Zhao Ziyang's party membership was always retained; he lived in his Beijing home for 15 years, and whenever he went out to play golf, people followed him.

You might ask, has a plenary session never expelled a major figure? It has. In 1968, the 12th Plenary Session of the 8th Central Committee permanently expelled the then-State Chairman Liu Shaoqi from the party. But that was the Cultural Revolution. Hu Jintao's resolution aims to oppose one-man rule and return to collective leadership. If he were to use the methods of the Cultural Revolution to deal with Old Xi, this resolution itself would become untenable.

How will it end at the plenary session? There are two paths, depending on whether he accepts it or not. If he accepts, he takes the path of Hua Guofeng. On the opening day, he will walk onto the stage and read the explanation deleting the Two Establishes from beginning to end. Over the four days of the plenary session, the same plenary session will agree to his resignation as general secretary and military commission chairman, giving the outside world a decent explanation, such as health reasons, while retaining the title of State Chairman until the National People's Congress next year. As we mentioned in the last episode, Old Xi wanted to check into the 301 Hospital before the plenary session to avoid it using illness as an excuse, but Hu Jintao did not allow it. Now, giving him a health reason at the plenary session—do the two contradict? They do not contradict; the difference lies in the sequence. If he was hospitalized due to illness before the plenary session, no one would read the explanation of the plenary resolution. A plenary resolution without the Two Establishes would not be read by Old Xi. Reading it at the plenary session and then resigning is different. Once the Two Establishes are gone, giving him a health reason at that moment delays nothing. The decency the conservatives want can only be granted by Hu Jintao at that point.

On September 24, while having tea at the White House, he had also agreed with Trump to hold APEC in Shenzhen in November and go to the US for the G20 in December. You might ask, how can someone who is about to resign at a plenary session still schedule future meetings? Because APEC and the G20 are attended by heads of state, and the person greeting guests at the Shenzhen gates in November can still be him. It's just that who goes on these two trips, what is said, and what is promised to others, just like this visit to the US, must all be approved by Beijing first.

If he does not accept, standing on the stage and refusing to read, or reading halfway and falling out, the plenary session will strip him of all posts while leaving his party membership untouched, writing a single sentence that he is under continued investigation. With two paths before him, he will most likely accept. If he accepts, he still has the title of State Chairman and can still greet guests in Shenzhen; if he does not accept, not even this title will remain. For a person who already has no power in his hands, titles are his last remaining thing.

Not expelling him does not mean letting him off the hook. If he is not expelled at the plenary session, what about after the session? There is another reason why the conservatives are willing to nod to the deletions this time: the core sentence provided them with a safety net. The hands they have raised over these years were raised for the core; they were following the rules. If they investigate downwards, no matter who they investigate, it will not lead back to them. Since it cannot reach them, they will not block the investigation. Li Keqiang passed away in Shanghai on October 27, 2023. He left suddenly, and people outside the Great Firewall have been pursuing the cause of death for these three years. According to the narrative outside the Great Firewall, someone at this plenary session will propose a motion to authorize the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection to conduct a comprehensive investigation into Li Keqiang's case. The one proposing the motion will be Hu Chunhua. Only after Li Keqiang's case is filed and the investigation reaches the top—reaching Xi Jinping himself—will it be time for expulsion. Why not just draft another historical resolution at this plenary session to negate everything he has done over the past decade or so? Because a historical resolution governs the line, not the individual. The one in 1981 negated Mao Zedong's later years, but it did not punish a single person. This current decision on comprehensive strict party governance governs party discipline, and party discipline is meant to punish people. As long as the decision includes a sentence stating that regardless of whether one is in office or retired, and regardless of how high the position is, any problems will be investigated to the end—this sentence does not need to be invented by Hu Jintao. In 2014, the retired Politburo Standing Committee member Zhou Yongkang was placed under investigation, expelled from the party that same year, and sentenced to life imprisonment the following year. The old rule that "punishment does not reach the Standing Committee members" was broken by Xi himself. In the same year, at the Fourth Plenary Session of the 18th Central Committee, the decision he explained included "lifelong accountability for major decisions." Investigating even after retirement and lifelong accountability were all rules he established one by one over these years. This time, as long as the plenary session copies his own words into the document, he won't even be able to find a reason to say no. Therefore, the Fifth Plenary Session will not expel him, but the plenary session can write the discipline that allows for his expulsion.

Speaking of this, what Hu Jintao actually wants becomes clear. Expelling someone from the party is kicking them out the door. Once a person is kicked out, it looks like a total fallout on the outside, but inside the party, there will be people who sympathize with him. Hu Jintao will not take that step. He wants Xi himself to walk onto the stage as General Secretary and, in front of more than 300 Central Committee members and alternate members, personally read away the four characters that have been pressing down on the entire party for five years. Once those four characters are gone, the altar he built for himself over these years will collapse. His party membership card may still be in his pocket, but under the stage, no one will treat him as a god anymore. Friends, the days of the plenary session you should watch most closely are which ones? October 26, the day the plenary session opens. Xi walks onto the stage and reads the explanation of the plenary decision that deletes the "Two Establishes." The next day, people all over the country are remembering Li Keqiang. If the motion to authorize the investigation into Li Keqiang's case is proposed right during these two days, it is no coincidence. Li Keqiang passed away while Xi was in charge; there is no better time to settle this account than these two days. On October 29, the communique is released; the sentence about the "Two Establishes" will no longer be there, but the sentence "with Comrade Xi Jinping at the core" will remain. At the same plenary session, he resigns as General Secretary and Chairman of the Central Military Commission, citing health reasons externally, while keeping the title of President. Wang Junzheng, Liang Yanshun, and Liu Ning will not get their new positions before the plenary session ends. On the night of September 24, he gave a speech at the White House, and the last sentence was about "demonstrating historical initiative." But the pen to write history is no longer in his hands. In 2021, he personally wrote the "Two Establishes" into the historical resolution. Five years later, it is he himself who reads these four characters out of existence. At the closing ceremony of the 20th National Congress in 2022, Hu Jintao was led away from the rostrum. The person sitting next to Hu Jintao who didn't reach out to stop it was Xi. Four years later, Hu Jintao doesn't need to enter the venue. The draft was written by people chosen by Hu Jintao, the tone was set by Hu Jintao, and the person walking onto the stage to read it is the same Xi who was sitting next to him back then. That night at the White House, the whole world saw it: Xi has no power. On October 26, the entire party will hear with their own ears that Xi himself has admitted it. His party membership is left to him this time, but the discipline that can expel him is written this time. Alright, that's all for today, friends. We will continue our discussion in the next episode.