Where Did Hu Chunhua Go? Will He Appear at the Fifth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee?

This episode mainly explores whether Hu Chunhua will attend the Fifth Plenary Session of the 20th CCP Central Committee and his political fate. The host analyzes the status of the Communist Youth League faction (Tuanpai) within the CCP system, Xi Jinping's total negation of the Reform and Opening-up policy, and the purge of the Tuanpai and private enterprises. The program points out that Hu Chunhua has most likely been placed under control and the Tuanpai faces the prospect of being wiped out, while also reviewing historical political movements and arguing that the Communist Party cannot be reformed.

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Some viewers have sent me messages and left comments, asking me on Facebook whether Hu Chunhua will actually appear at the venue of the Fifth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee, which is the Jinji Hotel these past two days. Some media outlets have claimed that Hu Chunhua has already appeared at the venue of the Fifth Plenary Session and is sitting on the rostrum, that Xi Jinping has fallen, and that he is sitting in the primary position. I think this kind of speculation is just speculation; everyone has their own views. But I feel that the Fifth Plenary Session right now is a slaughterhouse for the CCP, and Hu Chunhua did not appear at the meeting commemorating the 90th anniversary of the victory of the War of Resistance Against Japan. You all should know who appeared at the 90th anniversary of the victory of the War of Resistance; almost everyone in the CCP who should have appeared did appear. This meeting was actually very important, and it was a collective appearance, yet only a very key figure like Hu Chunhua did not appear. What kind of position does Hu Chunhua hold? In fact, within the CCP system, although Hu Chunhua is not a very high-profile person, he posed the greatest challenge to Xi Jinping's position. Everyone believed that if things had developed normally, Hu Chunhua should have been the first person to succeed Xi Jinping. Throughout the Communist Party system, the support for the Tuanpai was very high, and the most representative benchmark figure among the Tuanpai was Hu Chunhua. Hu Chunhua is not old; he should have been fully capable of succeeding. He has now entered the CPPCC and holds no other positions; he is in a completely nominal role. Under these circumstances, is this normal? It is completely abnormal. In other words, when Xi Jinping was selecting people, he directly excluded him, and he holds a completely nominal role, which means Xi Jinping has almost forced this person into retirement. Why did he keep him at the time? He wanted to build his own brand, that is, to make people in the overseas community feel that he did not wipe out the Tuanpai. He wanted to give the impression that he still recognizes the Tuanpai, and that the reason he is purging these so-called Tuanpai members is only because they have personal problems, not because there is a problem with the Tuanpai itself. This is the message he is sending to the outside world.

Judging from the current situation, whenever the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) launches a so-called political campaign, it always divides people into classes and groups. In past campaigns like land reform, the CCP targeted all rural gentry; during the socialist transformation of capitalist industry and commerce, it wiped out all national capitalists and business people as a collective; and during the Anti-Rightist Campaign and the Cultural Revolution, all intellectuals, primary targets across various industries, and figures in the literary and art circles suffered catastrophes. If Xi Jinping continues along the current path—meaning Xi Jinping is thoroughly negating the reform and opening-up, placing politics first and making the core of the Communist Party the absolute priority—what he is doing right now goes completely against Deng Xiaoping. Do not think that he occasionally still mentions Deng Xiaoping or the reform and opening-up; in reality, he has completely and utterly negated that entire set of ideas. He believes that reform and opening-up means the demise of the Party, weakening the Party and leading to its demise. Once the reform and opening-up opened the country up, governance weakened, the Party weakened, and the people grew stronger. This is the essence of reform and opening-up. Reform and opening-up is not just about economic opening and ideological opening; the national borders were thrown open—which dictator can allow the country's borders to be opened at will? Once the borders are opened, new ideas constantly pour in. The fall of the Qing Dynasty was actually caused by the Self-Strengthening Movement, after which large numbers of citizens and young people left China, fled to Western countries, and then returned. After these transformed overseas students returned, they truly introduced Western ideas into China, causing the smartest people in the entire country to become dissatisfied with constitutionalism and begin challenging it, ultimately driving the monarch from power. If Deng Xiaoping's reform and opening-up had continued in this manner, the Party throughout the entire country would have eventually weakened, becoming a weak party. Today, in order to firmly retake control of the country, Xi Jinping has only one method left, which is closing the country off. What Xi Jinping is doing right now runs completely counter to the public will of the entire nation. Therefore, who is his enemy? His enemy is the people of the entire country and the public will of the entire nation.

What is the Tuanpai (Communist Youth League faction)? The Tuanpai is a transitional and intermediate body. If the Tuanpai had continued to govern, the country would have gradually begun a truly major transformation, and political changes could have happened at any time. Xi Jinping saw this, and he began to crack down on the Tuanpai, most representatively targeting Li Keqiang. Li Keqiang was a staunch supporter of the reform and opening-up, and in the end, Li Keqiang was wiped out, innocently eliminated—this is entirely normal. Therefore, I think the probability of Hu Chunhua appearing at the venue of the 20th Central Committee's Fifth Plenary Session is extremely low. If I were Hu Chunhua, I would not attend this event; even if I were not under control, I would not attend this event. Why would you go and wade into these muddy waters again? Therefore, I think Hu Chunhua has most likely already been placed under control by Xi Jinping. It is also possible that even though he is controlled—since proceedings inside the venue are not public and everything done within the Communist Party remains unknown regarding what happens inside the hall—they might let Hu Chunhua make a brief appearance, but this possibility is extremely small. If Xi Jinping wins this time, the Tuanpai is definitely the primary group that must be eradicated. Because what he is talking about now is a struggle of lines, not economics; he believes that we have taken the wrong path, and that the path of reform and opening-up was entirely wrong. Although he gained many benefits from the reform and opening-up, he is constantly negating reform, because if reform and opening-up were allowed to continue opening up, it would open the Communist Party right out of existence, erasing the achievements of his predecessors, and the Chinese Communist Party would no longer be able to continue enslaving the common people. When the people grow strong and private enterprises grow strong, once the bosses of these private enterprises get involved in politics—in fact, more than a decade ago, many private enterprise owners started getting involved in politics. At that time, a massive number of private entrepreneurs participated in the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) and the National People's Congress (NPC). Go and look at the CPPCC and NPC now; are these people there? These people are gone. NPC deputies nowadays are invariably members of the Communist Party, and these entrepreneurs have disappeared. If you were to ask entrepreneurs to get involved in politics now, they would rather be beaten to death than agree; they know that the more you get mixed up in it, the greater your risk, and the Communist Party can wipe you out at any time, anywhere. Nowadays, when compiling rich lists, many people are unwilling to be included. Domestic private entrepreneurs have reached the point where they are liquidating themselves as much as possible. In the past, they would inflate various assets, but now it is completely different. Loans that should be repaid to banks are paid off as much as possible, assets are downsized, and some even sell off listed companies, directly delisting them, putting cash in their pockets, and running away if they can. Foreign exchange cannot get out, they cannot run, they cannot exchange currency, and even the black market is now very difficult to use for exchange. These people are now waiting to deal with the aftermath. The Communist Party did something a while ago: retroactively collecting taxes, settling accounts with all Chinese private entrepreneurs, and then slapping you with fines based on decades of retroactive rulings. If you have money, they will fine you hundreds of millions or even billions; Trip.com was fined 5 billion. These are all things the Communist Party is doing right now, massively retracting currency to leave the common people with less and less money in their hands. When the common people have less money, they spend every day worrying about being hungry and trying to get something to eat, thinking every day about whether they will have a next meal. Under such circumstances, they have to beg everyone from grandparents to gods, depending on the Communist Party because they have no surplus grain left in their hands.

The economic reforms and opening-up policies that the Tuanpai (the Communist Youth League faction) are pursuing under Xi Jinping are essentially about ensuring the common people have food to eat. Members of the Tuanpai are typically talented individuals with ideas, knowledge, and culture; they are educated people. These representative figures of the Tuanpai are graduates of prestigious universities, whereas Xi Jinping's team is completely different—he cannot tolerate them. Xi Jinping is just like Chairman Mao; he cannot tolerate intellectuals. The more thoughtful one is, the more 'reactionary' they are considered, so he wants to completely purge these people. The Tuanpai members are in trouble this time. After this meeting ends, it is very likely that several Tuanpai members will be ousted. Others may still remain for now, but it is only a matter of time. The Communist Party that Xi Jinping is running now is a powder keg. I believe the Tuanpai must have strong support behind them, including many 'princelings' (red second generation). These representative princelings will align with the Tuanpai, which would make their strength relatively formidable. Because if the princelings were to oppose Xi now, the problem would be that there is no successor capable of truly governing the country, and the nation would fall into chaos. The Tuanpai members have this capability, and most importantly, they have public support. As long as a Tuanpai member is pushed forward, the common people would still approve, and people within the Communist Party would also approve. If they were given ballots, Xi Jinping would lose miserably; the vast majority would vote for Hu Chunhua, and the number of votes would far exceed those for Xi Jinping. Therefore, what Xi Jinping wants to destroy most are those who have public support among the common people. These people are definitely his primary targets for attack; he wants to cut off your hopes and roots. If he wins, he will purge all these Tuanpai members. Shen Yueyue is a very dangerous person. Why not move against Shen Yueyue now? Because Hu Jintao has not yet fallen. If Hu Jintao were to truly fall, Shen Yueyue might fall as well, perhaps being dealt with directly, because these people have absolute influence within the Tuanpai. Tuanpai members are still in the grassroots, and there are many others who are Tuanpai or 'hidden' Tuanpai members; they just don't hold such high positions, but these people have the strength to compete with Xi Jinping. They have the ability, public support, and resources. The Tuanpai is a group that can rally support with a single call; it is a whole faction. So, I think the possibility of Hu Chunhua appearing at the venue is very small. If Xi Jinping is removed or taken down, the possibility of Hu Chunhua appearing would become much greater. If Xi Jinping is dealt with and driven from power, Hu Chunhua might be the first choice for the entire country. In the minds of the Chinese people, the Tuanpai represents reform and opening-up, represents wisdom, and represents the development of China's economy. Who should we thank for this? All Tuanpai members should thank Li Keqiang; Li Keqiang set a very good example. Although he didn't do too much for the entire Chinese economy—the Chinese economy later was just following inertia and didn't have much to do with Li Keqiang himself, and 'Likenomics' was just something packaged by everyone—he was a symbolic, soul-stirring figure. At least many people within the Communist Party fully recognized him, and the common people are often quite blindly obedient, just like Zhou Enlai back in the day. Once the Communist Party packaged him, Zhou Enlai became a great man.

Today is the second day of the CCP meeting, with a total of four days. Once the lid is lifted, everyone will understand. These few days are still very important. I still hope that there can be a powerful force capable of driving Xi Jinping from power, so that the common people in China can at least have food to eat. What is the difference between reform and opening-up and not having reform and opening-up? One is that the common people can hold their rice bowls with hope, the economy has hope, and they can support themselves; under the system created by Xi Jinping, no matter how hard ordinary people try, it is useless. Eating relies entirely on the alms of the Communist Party; if he wants you to starve to death, you must starve to death. This is the fundamental difference for the common people. Once the Communist Party grows stronger, it finds ways to trample on the common people. Looking at what has happened so far, the so-called comprehensive and strict governance of the Party means that next the Communist Party is going to mess with the common people. It is not strict governance of the Party, but strict governance of the people. Starting in the name of violence, it will definitely be an extension. Purges usually start from the top, first purging the high-level officials, then purging the entire team of the Communist Party. Now the high-level purges are almost done, the key figures have been mostly purged, and then the entire team of the Communist Party is purged, and next down the line comes purging all the ordinary people in China. Among the ordinary people, this is just like the Anti-Rightist Campaign back then—first they throw out a fishing hook to let you speak out boldly, letting you give opinions directly to the state and the government. Once those opinions are given, those people ultimately become evidence, directly beating you into being a rightist and ensuring you never rise again. If Mao had not died back then, those rightist people would have had no reaction at all. I used to meet many rightists, one of whom swept the floors in our school for decades and never uttered a word. That person was considered to have been treated very well among the rightists; many rightists were sent directly into labor camps, and many froze to death directly. In the end, our country still saw a few things created by Xi Jinping: first, making the common people completely lose hope in the CCP, knowing that the Communist Party is impossible to reform and can only change for the worse, so reforming the Communist Party is a false proposition. Whoever still hopes to reform the Communist Party and believes it can be reformed, just look at Xi Jinping and you will know. Reform and opening up had reached that stage, the country and the common people all had food to eat, and lives had gotten better, yet as long as the Communist Party exists, overnight it turns you into utter destitution. This is the nature of the Communist Party. What Xi Jinping is playing out is actually what Mao played out back then, and disasters will never stop. The common people have no alternative; the common people have only one way, which is to flee. There is no way to drive them away, nor is there any way to destroy them. The Communist Party can be destroyed in two ways: one is internal destruction, just like the Soviet Union back then, where it automatically disintegrates. This possibility completely exists. Some people think it is impossible for the Communist Party to perish automatically, but I believe it is entirely possible that the Communist Party will engage in internal infighting and perish on its own. Another kind of destruction is external destruction. Now the external world is massively and vigorously destroying the CCP; Venezuela and all those places are destroying it. Alright, I will chat with you all here about this topic. Let's see in a few days whether Hu Chunhua will actually appear at the venue? That lid will open. I think Hu Chunhua no longer has a chance; the Communist Youth League faction must be the target of Xi Jinping's blows. He is the most representative figure of the Communist Youth League faction, and the Youth League faction will definitely be completely wiped out. Thank you all for watching, and see you in the next episode.