Reasons for the CCP's Collapse: First, Mounting Debt; Second, Moral Collapse【Sayings Lecture Hall Cao Xingcheng Yu Maochun】EP180 (Chinese)

Former U.S. State Department official Yu Maochun and host Cao Xingchen discuss the potential reasons for the collapse of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), mainly pointing out two points: first, massive debt, and second, moral decay. The program reviews the rapid collapse of the East German and Eastern European communist regimes in 1989, analyzes the profound impact of the Tiananmen movement and the Hong Kong anti‑extradition protests on awakening human conscience and changing international perception of China, and mentions the important significance of Taiwan’s civil society movement in resisting CCP infiltration.

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The Communist Party rules it as a single entity, believing it has a historic mission, that it is great, glorious, and correct. It wants to place itself in a supreme position, demanding that everything else conform: thought must be unified, the nation must be unified, and the social system must be unified, because it sees any dissent as anti‑Party, anti‑socialist, and therefore intolerable. It throws the people's interests against its own opposition. Such a regime cannot endure for long. Of course, you might say the CCP has existed for a long time and still has opportunities, with the international community giving it some leeway. The CCP’s collapse, after the Cultural Revolution, was already at the brink of collapse, as Deng Xiaoping said; after Tiananmen, it was also at the brink of collapse. Thus, the international community’s understanding of China’s regime is crucial, which is why we need to study this topic. This subject is very important because many ordinary people have been deceived by the CCP. After the authoritarian rule of the Chinese Communist Party, the party is indeed bad, and its collapse would lead to chaos, warlord fighting—not necessarily. Most social transitions are successful; I cited Nazi Germany, militarist Japan, and the dictatorial Iraq, as well as the post‑communist transitions in Eastern Europe and the Soviet Union. After their collapse, with the people's voice, they have experienced relatively healthy development. Taiwan is a good example, and South Korea is also a good example. When ordinary people truly obtain their rights, they can voice their opinions on social transformation. As policymakers, we find these issues very important, especially for a country as large as China with such deep authoritarianism. If we are not well prepared—not only psychologically, but also politically and materially—the negative consequences could be huge. This is also related to Taiwan. After the East German communist collapse, West Germany took responsibility; after the North Korean government collapses, South Korea could purchase it because of its economic strength and large population. Taiwan and China are very disproportionate; Taiwan is highly developed and progressive, but China is a huge country, requiring international cooperation. Therefore, our report includes a chapter specifically on how the international community should handle a sudden CCP collapse and the subsequent situation—border control, the CCP’s nuclear and biological weapons, preventing their proliferation—concrete tasks that need to be done. We are pleased yet uneasy about this research. We are pleased because we are doing it; we are uneasy because our Washington think‑tank is the only one conducting this study. Hence, everyone needs to work together and do more research, especially the Chinese people, who must imagine their future society. Nowadays, ordinary people complain daily, which is a normal phenomenon—people are unwilling to continue being bullied by the Communist Party. This expression is positive energy, but after complaining, people should think about how to change the status quo. Marx said the key is not how philosophers analyze the situation, but how to change it. Of course, we are not researching how to change it, but you should envision your future society and idealized scenarios. I again cite the example of united labor unions. Before British colonial rule was overthrown, the American founding fathers already had a very detailed vision for future society. They spoke extensively about it. Now, regarding when the CCP will collapse, if we look at East Germany or the former Soviet republics, the collapse was rapid. East Germany fell on October 7, 1989, held a grand military parade, and less than a year later, on October 3, 1990, it was handed over to West Germany—less than a year, a very fast collapse. The most important reason for East Germany’s collapse was massive debt it could not repay. The current CCP is similar: it is heavily indebted. Besides debt, the main problem is a moral collapse to an unprecedented degree. The CCP regime has caused a severe decline in public morality, fundamentally because it lacks credibility and mutual trust. Thus, the decay of social and public morality is a huge problem in Chinese society.

Look, when East Germany collapsed, the leader who dominated East Germany at the time was a staunch communist named Erich Honecker. However, Honecker was the only leader in a communist country who firmly endorsed and supported the Chinese Communist Party’s June Fourth massacre. Gorbachev did not comment, many communists stayed silent, yet Honecker, the East German leader, resolutely supported the CCP. This was a major reason why the East German people rose up in rebellion, besides the massive debt. The fact that the East German leadership could so strongly support the CCP’s massacre of its own people spurred the people of Leipzig, Berlin and elsewhere to protest and demonstrate. Consequently, Honecker was driven from power by these protestors, and the East German Communist Party reorganized a new Politburo. The new General Secretary was Egon Krenz, a relatively young figure reminiscent of Zhao Ziyang, but he had few tactics. As you mentioned, before the Berlin Wall was breached on November 9, 1989, Krenz made a mistake: in August 1989, two months after June Fourth, he traveled to China to shake hands with Li Peng and Deng Xiaoping, further inflaming East German resistance. Thus the Tiananmen movement played a very important role in the collapse of the East German Communist regime. At that time, the East German secret police, the Stasi, were terrified of the Tiananmen spirit spreading eastward, and their agents tried desperately to stop the protests, but it was already too late. Besides the debt, there was also a moral appeal that came from the Chinese heroes of Tiananmen. This moral appeal was a key factor in the East German Communist collapse. Moreover, the influence of Tiananmen was even more direct in Czechoslovakia, Slovakia and Poland. After the Berlin Wall fell, Poland’s Solidarity took power, and its first democratically elected prime minister, Mazowiecki, invited many people to Poland for an anti‑communist alliance meeting. I traveled around Eastern Europe and found that the Tiananmen movement had an enormous impact there, which many people overlook. If I had the chance, I would write about it. In fact, the Tiananmen movement represents a kind of human conscience and virtue. Whether the youth were mature or not is irrelevant; what matters is the courage to challenge an authoritarian regime suffering moral collapse.

Your speech greatly encouraged me. In 2019, the anti‑extradition protests in Hong Kong were suppressed, but I think that although they seemed to fail on the surface, they actually caused a huge change. The world’s attitude toward the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) shifted dramatically because of the crackdown on Hong Kong’s anti‑extradition movement, including mine. I originally thought, “Hey, maybe we can find a way for the two sides of the strait to coexist peacefully,” so I created something called the Peaceful Coexistence Law. I wanted to promote procedural justice for the two sides of the strait—if you want to unify Taiwan, it must be with the consent of the Taiwanese people, through a public referendum, not by force. I wanted to push that forward, but in 2019 I saw them hiring thugs to beat people; those guys were completely unreasonable and untrustworthy, right? It was useless; resistance was the only option. I think the anti‑extradition movement actually had many positive effects, very important. Look at Hong Kong’s protests, the Tiananmen movement—often they serve as a moral awakening for humanity. The CCP doesn’t understand this; it gave the world a negative example. During the anti‑extradition protests, I was at the State Council, and millions of ordinary people took to the streets—one million, two million—so the public was outraged. Songs like “Les Misérables” were deeply moving, and many people acted out of moral conscience. The CCP blamed it on the United States, calling everything a conspiracy, and its actions taught the world a lesson. Figures like Yu Maochun and others in Washington trying to spread anti‑China sentiment were wrong; in fact, the CCP pushed itself into this position. The CCP’s true nature is exposed. We tell many allied countries that the CCP is a threat to the world—not only militarily and economically, but primarily morally—because the CCP is a morally corrupt regime. If its model succeeds, the world is doomed. Many countries don’t believe us, thinking we exaggerate, but after COVID‑19 emerged, the CCP claimed the virus was brought to China by the United States and angrily blocked any investigation into its origin. That, too, was a very good lesson for the world. So we don’t need to argue with them; they all agree with our view. Of course, I’m not saying I’m inciting anything, but if the CCP ever truly collapses, the real grave‑diggers will be the CCP itself.

You also encourage me. Our recent large‑scale recall didn’t succeed, but I believe that movement will have a huge impact on Taiwan’s future because it is truly a grassroots, spontaneous effort. In the Legislative Yuan, people were messing around; a bunch of them went to Beijing, met Wang Huning, and came back to expand power aggressively. After they expanded power, the Constitutional Court declared it unconstitutional, and they tried to abolish the court. The public saw that Beijing was backing them, so the people didn’t accept it and jumped in. Although it failed, I think this citizen force, capable of gathering over a million signatures, will not fade away. It’s like the June 4, 1989 Tiananmen incident, the Hong Kong anti‑extradition protests, and the large recall—these will all become reasons for the CCP’s collapse. Only in a society like Taiwan can a recall like this operate normally, without violence, with full expression of opinions, and with mutual recognition of the result. In China such a thing is impossible. The recall may be just an idea, but overall, this awakening of national consciousness—even among the pan‑blue camp that claims it’s not pro‑CCP—places it in a defensive stance. In Taiwan’s democratic framework, it can function, but overall I believe the power of the people moving toward democracy and a civilized society requires continuous struggle. Sovereignty resides with the people, which is crucial. Even though you are influential, you are not a politician; a non‑political figure leading such a massive movement is truly remarkable. East Asian societies have endured a very arduous and remarkable path over the past decades.