Cai Qi Disappeared! "Real China"

This video is hosted by Hu Liren and explores the abnormal phenomenon of Central Committee Politburo Standing Committee member and Director of the Central Office, Cai Qi, frequently missing important foreign reception events recently (such as missing the reception of Htin Kyaw after receiving Myanmar’s Min Aung Hlaing, and missing the reception of Prime Minister of Bangladesh, etc.). The host analyzes three possible outcomes Cai Qi might face: a serious illness, being directly removed by Xi Jinping, or being protected by teaming up with the second-generation red elite and the military. The program also combines the internal power struggles of the CCP and the host’s early career experiences in state-owned and foreign enterprises to criticize the essence of the CCP’s bureaucratic servile culture.

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Today’s first live broadcast, now it is 7:17 a.m. Eastern Time. Why am I broadcasting a message so early today? Cai Qi has disappeared. Remember? Yesterday I told you that today is a critical day for Cai Qi—if he does not disappear, it would confirm the rumors circulating in Beijing. Cai Qi’s incident is very possible. Let me recap for you. A while ago Cai Qi was suddenly demoted to become president of the Central Party School, which I said was bad news; he also concurrently served as president of the China Academy of Governance. Then, when was the last time Cai Qi appeared? It was with Min Aung Hlaing, around the 9th, when Xi Jinping received the Myanmar military leader Min Aung Hlaing, and Cai Qi was present at the reception. Usually Cai Qi appears at major large‑scale events. Cai Qi was formerly the Party Secretary of Beijing; after stepping down he moved to the Central Office as director, becoming the top official in Zhongnanhai—essentially second only to the top leader. In any major incident or reception, he shows up. This time Htin Kyaw is a very key figure; the CCP has only a few friends in the region—look at North Korea, which he visited with Xi; when the US president came, he was there; when Putin came, he also appeared. This time Htin Kyaw came, and he did not appear. Not only did he not appear, but a few days ago when Xi went to Texas, Cai Qi did not go either; Chen Wenqing went with him. Today Xinhua photos have been released showing Xi receiving Htin Kyaw, seated with Liu Haixing, director of the International Liaison Department, on one side and Wang Yi on the other, but Cai Qi is absent. If Cai Qi were present, he would certainly sit next to Xi; his absence is therefore a very significant event.

I have always said the CCP is like this: suppose I am Xi Jinping, I am a dictator, I count with my fingers the biggest future threat to me, which is Cai Qi. So this time Cai Qi should almost certainly face a grim fate, which is extremely abnormal. So far, the central authorities have not publicly removed his position as director of the Central Office, nor have they removed his role as the first secretary of the Secretariat. Therefore, there are only two, or perhaps a few, possibilities: one is that he might be seriously ill; but on the other hand, not long ago it seemed unlikely that he would accompany Xi Jinping to North Korea, and when he went to North Korea, his expression was a very abnormal forced smile. I once showed everyone that photo, where he was in North Korea as Kim Jong Un and Xi Jinping walked together, with both hands placed in front of him, looking like a servant with a forced smile. Last year I made a video telling everyone that Cai Qi would definitely be taken down, and if he is not, Xi Jinping will be finished. Now Cai Qi has been taken down, another possibility is that he is being protected by the red second generation and already controlled by the military, protected by a certain unit. Let’s consider three possibilities: one is a serious illness, but this is highly unlikely; he doesn’t look sick, he is two years younger than Xi and appears very energetic; the second is that Xi Jinping has taken him down directly, but it hasn’t been announced yet, similar to Zhang Youxia, who was taken down in December and announced in January after a review process; the third possibility is that he is directly allied with the military second generation or red second generation, under their protection, because they now have the army—he could be held in a barracks. Xi cannot speak about it, and it cannot be said publicly; it may be part of a negotiation, and I think this third scenario is quite plausible. Because Cai Qi himself—think about it, even Hu Liren knows this person—now everyone is speculating that Cai Qi might be the most dangerous person inside the Chinese Communist Party. There’s a saying that serving a ruler is like serving a tiger; you see that Cai Qi cannot afford to make any mistake because he knows too much; if you pick a small strand of hair, he will pull you down. Cai Qi and Xi Jinping absolutely cannot have any major friction, that’s the CCP. I said yesterday that within the CCP system, you are essentially standing on the guillotine; you can be beheaded at any moment. If you can survive and live normally, that’s extremely impressive, like an ancestral tomb smoking.

What is that place? That place is full of bad people within the Communist Party, all evil, constantly scheming against each other. Don't say it's the Central Committee or Zhongnanhai; think back, when you used to work at a state-owned enterprise, what were you like? You were exactly like that. Plant manager, workshop director, Party branch secretary, Party committee secretary, union chairman. When I first started working, I was assigned to a Communist Party unit, but after a year or two I left; normal people could never get in there. A whole bunch of sycophants—both the CCP government and former state-owned enterprises were like that; a normal person would be crushed there. I used to work at a research institute in Shanghai in the early 1980s; many people thought I was a fool, saying I didn’t understand anything. My parents taught me to be a normal person, but I was not normal there. Later I couldn’t understand them, and they couldn’t understand me. A classmate who was assigned with me said, “Hu Liren, you’re stupid; you didn’t feel it in school, why can’t you fit in at work now? You have to say things that sound good to them; you can’t just say whatever you think.” I thought I couldn’t do it, so I left that company and went to a foreign‑capital enterprise. Oh, I was so popular! Because foreign enterprises were just starting in China, I went straight to one, rising day and night. In my twenties I was already in a position like Cai Qi’s now—one person below the top, above everyone else, managing all the people. I joined a huge corporation with many subsidiaries. In the early 1990s, how big were the subsidiaries? One subsidiary did two hundred million yuan of business a year—how impressive is that? Doing two hundred million in the 1990s was absurdly impressive. I became a president’s assistant at this company; after about two months, the heads of the subsidiaries were talking about me. My English name is Michael, and Michael is related to the boss. I said we’re not relatives; this shows how important positioning is. Someone like me can’t survive in a government unit; you’ll get headaches from them and they’ll get headaches from you, and you leave immediately. I didn’t stay long at the institute before moving to a foreign‑capital firm, and I kept getting promoted there, never returning to any government unit—those are all crap. So Chinese people say the country is a cesspit, and it really is. Look at the people around Xi Jinping; is any of them normal? They were born normal, but if they lived in a civilized society they would be normal. Look at Wang Yi’s conduct, Cai Qi’s conduct, Han Zheng, Wang Huning—these are all sycophants, pampered by their parents. Don’t think these are all high officials; to a normal person they’re all sycophants. In interpersonal relations, what the boss says is right, what’s wrong is wrong; if you have a mistake, I’ll point it out—that’s normal human language and behavior. In foreign firms it’s like that; there’s no personal relationship, everything is for the country, the company, the enterprise’s development, everyone tells the truth, so the foreign firms thrive. Why do state‑owned enterprises collapse? They constantly tell lies—how can the country be good? Xi is doing this now, state retreat, private advance. Why will the whole country get better later? Because state‑owned enterprises are finished; inside them everyone lies, all are greedy rats, everything collapses, a bunch of idiots—normal people have to pretend to be idiots to survive there. When normal foreign firms came, private enterprises rose, Sino‑foreign joint ventures started, Western ideas and corporate culture began influencing China, and the country got a little better. Look at private firms—do any of them tell lies? Do they hold meetings with government leaders and lie? No. If a private firm lied like that, it would be dead in a few months. So these people inside the CCP are all fighting each other, and the result is disaster. The Mao era proved it, not only Mao’s era— the Soviet Union, Yugoslavia, all socialist countries have proven it. Xi wants to go back that old road and treat everyone as sycophants, which will inevitably be resisted. That’s exactly what Cai Qi is doing now.

So I'm saying, if I were Cai Qi, I would have fled long ago, I would have already teamed up with someone. You have to bring him down; if I don't bring him down, I'm finished. Let me recap: Cai Qi went to North Korea on the 8th or 9th, attended the last meeting where Xi Jinping received Min Aung Hlaing. I calculated that was about fifteen days total as of yesterday. Yesterday was fifteen days, today is sixteen days. And today there seem to be two receptions: one with Hun Sen and one with the Prime Minister of Bangladesh, and the Bangladesh Prime Minister was also not accompanied by Cai Qi. Cai Qi has now completely disappeared, completely gone, and it is an extremely abnormal disappearance. When you string together these data chains and information chains, everyone will see that Cai Qi is very likely involved in an incident. I say there are three possible scenarios: one is that he was taken directly to a hospital and died there, which is a very small possibility; these central leaders are usually present, and if he really had a problem, he wouldn't be able to go to North Korea and travel that far with Xi Jinping. The second possibility is that he teamed up with the military second generation or the red second generation and was protected by them as a tainted witness; the military and red second generations would need leverage, and Cai Qi could very well become their leverage. The third possibility is that Xi Jinping directly had Cai Qi taken under control. Yesterday, in both important receptions, Cai Qi did not appear. Let me show you: yesterday's two receptions, first the Prime Minister of Bangladesh, Tariq, with Xi Jinping—Cai Qi was not beside Xi; Cai Qi is bald, you can see he is not there. Also Cambodian leader Hun Sen, Xi Jinping met Hun Sen, Xi had two meetings yesterday, and Cai Qi was absent, see? This is Director Liu of the External Relations Department, this is Wang Yi, you can see it. So this is a huge matter. Imagine, that day Trump came, Cai Qi was the number two figure; after shaking hands with Xi Jinping, he shook hands with Cai Qi, and Cai Qi even scolded Wang Yi, telling him to stand properly. Many people posted that video online. Cai Qi is definitely the real number two, and now he suddenly is gone. Within the Communist Party, this is normal; today Cai Qi's disappearance, remember, I predicted it months ago, I talked about how crucial Cai Qi was in last year's program. One is Zhang Youxia, the other is Cai Qi, the two most important people, one controls the military, the other controls the Party. Okay, we are waiting for this event to truly boil over; when the pot finally opens, we’ll know what really happened. In a short while the truth will surface, at most within a month. Thank you all for watching, see you in the next program.