Leva: This article can save many post‑90s and post‑00s!

Some things need to be emphasized repeatedly. This article can save many post-90s and post-00s generations!!!

The image shows the scene of the Meida Expressway collapse in Guangdong in May 2024, which resulted in 48 deaths and 30 injuries.

China's expressway standards... you know.

Chinese people, upon seeing this, will surely post pictures of collapsed American roads to refute it.

But I want to tell them a set of numbers:

In 2023, the US federal government invested 44 billion US dollars in infrastructure, and states invested 85 billion US dollars, totaling 130 billion US dollars. Meanwhile, it took the UK 15 years to approve the construction of a high-speed rail line. Construction is easy, but can it generate positive cash flow? Who will bear the future maintenance costs?

China's fixed asset investment in 2023 exceeded 50 trillion yuan, including real estate, infrastructure, and manufacturing. Of this, infrastructure investment exceeded 20 trillion yuan, with transportation and water conservancy alone totaling nearly 17.5 trillion yuan.

China's infrastructure investment over the past 30 years has ranged between 300-400 trillion yuan, and high investment in infrastructure will not significantly decrease in the next 10 years.

Although large-scale infrastructure is nearing saturation and its marginal utility for economic growth is diminishing, new economic growth points cannot be found, and consumption growth is stagnant. If infrastructure construction stops, GDP growth will immediately plummet.

In 2024, local governments alone approved transportation infrastructure projects worth 10 trillion yuan, and debt continues to grow. Now the central government has finally started printing money to help local governments resolve debt. Previously, it was "each child for their own," but now the central government has no choice but to "take them all." The National People's Congress is just a rubber stamp.

Over the years, how many railway ministers, chief engineers of the Ministry of Railways, and directors of provincial transportation departments have been arrested? Last year, Yang Xinyu, the director of the financial department of the Ministry of Water Resources, was also arrested. Global Times reported in 2016 that nearly 10 departmental-level officials in the water conservancy system had been investigated for corruption since the 18th Party Congress...

China's infrastructure is severely overbuilt, with massive construction scale, over 20 years of high-intensity investment, and serious corruption... the quality is worrying... people get old, don't buildings get old too?

Finally, there's no money to repair, and even less money to demolish. Steel and concrete cannot be degraded, and demolition costs are higher than construction costs. So, they can only be abandoned. Besides, where would such a large pile of garbage go if it were demolished? Look at Detroit in the US. In the future, a large number of China's high-speed railways, subways, bridges, airports, expressways, reservoirs, airports, government buildings, industrial zones... there's no choice but to abandon them.

Let's calculate: in the next 30 years, even if these infrastructure projects require 3-5% of their cost for annual maintenance, it would be at least 15-20 trillion yuan per year. As time goes on, maintenance costs will only increase annually. However, in 2023, local governments' general public budget revenue was only 11 trillion yuan. Will all government money be used to maintain infrastructure? Will nothing else be done? With the end of land finance and economic recession, local government tax revenues will decrease, making them increasingly reliant on borrowing.

Chinese people have not only covered the land that their descendants rely on for survival and recuperation with shoddy buildings, but they have also printed and spent the pensions of future generations, burdening them with huge debts and leaving behind construction waste that cannot be cleared for hundreds of years.

According to estimates, with the plummeting birth rate and the mass deaths of the baby boomer generation, by the 2070s, when the post-90s and post-00s generations grow old, China's total population will be only half of what it is now, around 700 million.

Given the need for stability maintenance, the Chinese government will not make the above population predictions, but South Korea's population predictions have already been released. By 2072, South Korea's population will decrease from the current 52 million to 36 million, a reduction of 30.8%, and the proportion of elderly people will account for half of the total population. South Korea's birth rate is currently the lowest in the world, but the rate of decline in South Korea's birth rate is far slower than China's. South Korea is a developed economy, getting rich before getting old, and its youth unemployment rate is lower than China's. It can also absorb immigrants, and the South Korean government is a fertility-friendly government with excellent welfare, and there is no population cliff caused by family planning in South Korea.

China's one-child birth rate is already 0.5, and the post-95s and post-00s generations have low marriage and fertility intentions. By the 2070s, China's aging will definitely be more severe than South Korea's, with the population decreasing by 50% to around 700 million, which will definitely happen. Meanwhile, China has built enough housing for 2 billion people, and high-speed railways, subways, expressways, municipal projects, office buildings, hotels, apartments for 1.4 billion people...

The elderly in China in the 2070s have already been born. From 1990-2010, a birth peak, at least 18-20 million people were born each year, totaling 360-380 million. By the 2070s, when this group grows old, half of China's population will be elderly, and the extremely high "elderly dependency ratio" will crush the social welfare system.

China's social welfare system is highly likely to be overwhelmed by the 2040s, when China's elderly population will be larger than that of the entire European Union, at 470 million.

Of course, some people say that the Chinese government does not provide for the elderly, so China will not have an aging problem. But if the government shifts responsibility to families, families will also be overwhelmed. If all wealth created is used for elderly care, what about consumption? Population is both a producer and a consumer. If the population is halved, how will the excess real estate be absorbed? Ghost cities everywhere? In an aging society, with heavy social burdens, the birth rate will definitely continue to decline. When aging enters a plateau, and the proportion of the elderly population remains high for a long time, the economy and society will eventually completely lose vitality.

By the 2070s, Chinese society will be heavily burdened, and workers will face immense pressure. They may have to pay heavy taxes to maintain the infrastructure built so frantically over the years, and also support a wasteful big government. Workers will also have to support themselves, and even maintain their own homes... The lifespan of Chinese buildings... is very short... So, who will support the 360 million aging post-90s and post-00s generations? Will they still have pensions and medical expenses? Can they age with dignity?

Chinese people, if the government cuts taxes, don't be too happy. If the government cannot collect taxes, it can only print money, which is still seigniorage. The RMB is not an international reserve currency and cannot be freely converted. The Chinese government's seigniorage can only be paid by all Chinese people themselves! Including the post-90s and post-00s generations.

The smartest and most well-off minority of post-90s and post-00s generations in China, if they truly understand this, will definitely find ways to go abroad, and at least will not marry and have children in China. Becoming the "last generation" or "peerless beauties" will be the helpless choice of the post-90s and post-00s generations.

Most of China's post-90s and post-00s generations can only continue to dream the Chinese dream, continue to enjoy large-scale infrastructure, endure future hyperinflation, and eventually have no support in old age and no medical care when sick. Their "good days" are still ahead!

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On the morning of June 24, 2025, a serious fracture accident occurred on an elevated bridge section of the Xarong Expressway in Sandu Shui Autonomous County, Guizhou.