專家解析美中峰會：要面子更要裡子

影片圍繞美中峰會可能涉及的臺灣、人工智慧、貿易、關稅、稀土、波音飛機和農產品採購等議題展開分析。受訪專家認為，峰會應檢驗中國是否履行既有承諾，同時美國不應以出口管制或美臺關係作為交換，並應保留戰略優勢、加強危機溝通，同時安撫日本、臺灣及其他盟友和夥伴。

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Obviously, Xi Jinping wants to be treated with respect. That is very important now. Even thinking of 10 years ago, the United States and China were certainly competitors, but China has really closed the gap in many different domains. So it is very important for Xi Jinping to come and be treated very well. It shows that there is an equal, or at least a higher, level of respect between the two countries.

When looking at specific deliverables, one area he will be interested in is Taiwan. That continues to be an area in which the Chinese Communist Party is very interested. It was defined back in May as the most sensitive issue, and China has indicated that military operations or war are possible if the United States does not handle it well. That is a very clear red line they are attempting to draw.

I would not be surprised if Xi Jinping wants to see the United States adopt a position on Taiwan that is more favorable to Chinese positions, perhaps regarding strategic clarity or ambiguity. Maybe they want issues raised about the current Taiwanese administration. But I am confident that the president and the advisers around him will not fall into that. I think that is what he may want to propose, but I am really hoping that, when looking at the substance, America does not do that.

I think there are two key measures of success for this summit. First, is China going to follow through on its commitments reached in May during the Beijing summit, or from earlier, such as Busan or before? We know there have been ongoing disputes with the Chinese over their willingness to sign an agreement and then not follow through.

As information continues to come out in the lead-up to the summit, whether it concerns rare earths, Boeing aircraft, or agricultural purchases, these are the types of things that have already been agreed to. But there are remaining questions about whether China is actually going to follow through. I want to see them demonstrate that they are meeting as closely as possible what was agreed. If they are not, what steps are being taken to get back on track?

The second measure of success is whether the United States will preserve its strategic leverage and advantages during any agreement that is reached. In other words, we will probably see some agreements or conversations on artificial intelligence, trade, and tariffs, but at the end of the day, we should not be trading anything like export controls for that.

We should not allow China to have any type of sway or influence over the U.S.-Taiwan relationship. Those are just two examples of things we need to make sure we maintain full control of, regardless of any agreement that could be reached.

There should be some type of mechanism to effectively serve as a crisis mechanism. In case there is some type of national security issue, or a problem that is starting to develop, there should be a way for the heads of state or the leaders to communicate with each other, provide information, and make sure they are aware that they are trying to solve it. Most importantly, there must be no miscalculation.

Ultimately, both sides on AI want to have the ability to prevent escalation and have some sense that it is in each of their interests to have this type of

More broadly, I think what is going to be most important is that, in areas where we could agree, we may see some agreements on tariff reduction—not on strategic goods, but perhaps on some non-strategic goods. We could see a few billion dollars in that regard, but there are not too many other major announcements we should be expecting.

Both leaders simply want to maintain a good floor in the relationship, but they are also adversaries. The United States and China continue to be competitors, and as a result, there is a low ceiling for us to maneuver around. I think we will see some progress on AI, trade, or tariffs, but nothing major that is going to redefine the relationship.

It is very important to reassure allies and partners. Obviously, everyone around the world will be watching this summit. You have the two most powerful countries in the world, so everyone has an interest in the outcomes. Everyone has an interest in seeing how the relationship develops.

I am glad that the president is prioritizing this meeting with Prime Minister Takaichi. As you mentioned, he took the phone call out of Beijing to give her a call. That is consistent proof of the emphasis the president puts on America’s relationship and alliance with Japan.

As it applies to Taiwan, this should also represent that the United States is firmly aware that Taiwan has many interests at stake in this summit. The president and his team have had a very good relationship with Taiwan. Obviously, there is the question of arms sales. I think we are not going to get an immediate answer to that this week. Intentionally, the president does not want to upset the summit.

But I also remain confident that the president and others in the administration recognize the incredible, critical importance that this relationship has for U.S. national security and economic interests.

I understand there can be some anxieties about these summits, but I think the president’s team is reassuring allies and partners around the world that the United States is strong, that the president has leverage, and that he will make sure allies and partners are informed and know what to expect. He is not going to take decisions that are going to hurt their interests or do anything that emboldens China to risk the free world.