達賴喇嘛繼任牽動地緣政治 USCC最新報告：美國應提前應對北京介入

美國之音中文網的影片討論了達賴喇嘛的繼任及其對藏高原地區地緣政治穩定可能產生的影響。報告指出，北京可能試圖介入達賴喇嘛的轉世過程，並借鑑了其在班禪喇嘛轉世問題上的做法。報告建議美國應提前制定應對策略，以支援由藏人主導的繼任程序，並與印度等民主國家合作，共同應對可能出現的危機。

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但我想，也許更直接的是，達賴喇嘛的繼任和轉世將對藏高原地區的穩定產生影響，正如報告指出的那樣。這可能與中國國內的穩定有關，因為達賴喇嘛及其“中間道路”方法一直是西藏內部極端觀點的緩和因素。

我認為是在中國的聲音和印度和中國的聲音，任何組織的戰略，可能會關於比較的地域的地域和中國的地域的地域，between India and China。所以有很多的implications that go beyond the religious issues and spill into regional stability，或是一般的重要concerns。

在美國上的一方面，提到北京 wants to establish a One Dalai Lama framework。What do you expect China to do to influence the secession and gain international recognition？It's pretty clear。We've seen the playbook before with the Panchen Lama in the 1990s and 2000s，where the Dalai Lama directed the reincarnation process and identified the Panchen Lama but the Chinese then abducted the Panchen Lama and his family and produced a selection of their own and then promoted that individual internationally。it still reverberates today there was a very recent incident of the Chinese selected Panchen Lama trying to attend an international conference on behalf of Tibetan Buddhism，which of course was ultimately rejected by the hosts。but I think we know what they're going to do。they've been very clear about they enjoined the legal authority and purview over this election process and we saw them do it with the Panchen Lama。

and the report urges the U.S. to act before a secession crisis emerges。what would Washington do now to prepare and what would be at stake if the U.S. waits until the secession dispute begins？

If we wait, we're at the mercy of how the Tibetan governing authorities, the trust that the Dalai Lama has selected to run the reincarnation process. We're at the mercy of how well they do with their Indian hosts, with Chinese pressure, and we'd be ad hoc-ing our response if there's not proper preparation. so I think at a minimum talking about various scenarios talking about what the United States should do both in the immediate aftermath of the passing of his holiness but also in support of a Tibetan-led succession process these are things that need to be talked about in advance and thought about in advance and our interagency should be involved our congress should be involved and we should be having those discussions with like-minded democracies first and foremost India,but other countries with an interest here as well.