沒籌碼的妥協，只會讓敵人發笑｜反共運動現實主義回應萬潤南“四點原則”

Compromise without leverage only makes your enemy laugh.

我想對萬潤南先生髮表的“未來四點基本原則”說點不同看法。

I would like to offer a different perspective on Mr. Wan Runnan’s “Four Fundamental Principles for the Future.”

這四點珠圓玉潤，可能比較合想走高層文明路線的紳士小姐們的口味，比如：“要妥協，別把對手逼到死角”……對此，我就想輕輕的問一個問題：你們拿什麼去妥協？？？

These four points are polished and elegant—likely more appealing to gentlemen and ladies who favor a path of high-level civility. For instance, one states: “We must compromise, don’t corner your opponent.” To that, I would like to gently ask: What exactly do you have to compromise with?

[caption id="attachment_2385" align="alignnone" width="198"] 大學生已經把中共逼到了角落[/caption]

你們是兵鋒所指兵臨城下了？還是發起席捲全國的浩蕩運動了？還是手握別的什麼讓黨國領袖們夜不能寐坐臥不安的籌碼了？還是說……僅僅想靠網上的文章與節目？

Are your forces pressing at the gates? Have you launched a sweeping national movement? Do you hold any leverage that would cause the Party-state leaders to lose sleep in fear? Or is it… just some online articles and videos?

我不用虛構就可以直接告訴諸君：若把要給中共留餘地，永遠別把他們逼到死角這些話拿給國保的警官們看，估計他們都要笑了。

I don’t need to exaggerate—I can tell you plainly: if you show lines like “we must leave the CCP room to retreat, never corner them” to state security officers, they’d probably laugh out loud.

[caption id="attachment_2387" align="alignleft" width="225"] 大學生已經把中共逼到了角落[/caption]

文明的漂亮話，很多人都會說，但真要落實到現實政治中，我們就必須分清輕重緩急，搞明白每個階段特別是當下階段的工作重心是什麼？

Many know how to say the right things in the name of civility. But when it comes to real-world politics, we must understand priorities—what matters most at each stage, especially the current one.

現在是誰把誰往牆角逼？現在的問題是大家不願妥協不夠溫和嗎？還是說——根本連足夠的施壓都沒有，連坐下來妥協的資格都沒有？

Who’s cornering whom right now? Is the issue really that we are too unyielding, too harsh? Or rather—have we not even applied enough pressure to deserve a seat at the negotiating table?

要打牌得先上桌，請諸君務必清醒意識到民主反共運動的處境：還沒形成成熟反對陣營的現在，離真正上桌還很遠，目前及未來很長一個階段，工作重心都在於製造並施加足夠的壓力，而非手無籌碼卻空談妥協。

To play the game, you must first have a seat at the table. I urge you to remain sober-minded about the current state of the pro-democracy, anti-CCP movement: we haven’t yet built a mature opposition force. We’re still far from that table. In this phase, and likely for a long time to come, our primary task is to build and exert sufficient pressure—not to talk compromise when we hold no chips.

至於其它三點，什麼體面的退場機制、可信的中介溝通機制、保持模糊空間……總結起來其實就一點：照顧好中共情緒，讓其體面退場退休。

As for the other three principles—such as providing a dignified exit mechanism, trusted intermediaries for dialogue, and maintaining ambiguity—they can all be boiled down to one core idea: protect the CCP’s feelings and let them retire gracefully.

這些其實無需單獨作為原則來強調。反對陣營足夠成熟時，肯定會有自己廣泛的溝通網路，無論是公開的還是秘密的，檯面的還是私下的，直接的還是間接的（借第三方中介的）……根本無需擔心溝通問題。

These don’t need to be formalized as guiding principles. Once the opposition matures, it will naturally develop extensive communication networks—public and secret, official and informal, direct and via third parties. Dialogue won’t be a problem then.

屆時也自然會有成熟的政治家去談退場談妥協，該模糊就模糊，該強硬也必須強硬。

At that point, seasoned political actors will naturally emerge to negotiate exits and compromises. They’ll know when to be ambiguous—and when to be unyielding.

如果能少流血，讓中共體面退場，我當然是支援的，別說退場，它就是改個名字留在舞臺上搞兩黨制，我也建議別把門關死。

If a less bloody outcome allows the CCP to exit gracefully, of course I support it. In fact, even if they merely rebrand themselves and stay on stage as part of a two-party system, I’d advise not to slam the door on that possibility.

而比大多數人更進一步的是，我願意給予原來鎮壓異議人士的前安全系統人員以特赦及其它的溫和處理，要知道很多飽受其苦的異議人士恨不得啖其肉喝其血。

I go even further than most: I’m willing to grant pardons and lenient treatment to former security agents who once suppressed dissent—despite how many victims of theirs would gladly tear them apart given the chance.

為什麼？因為我知道要取得勝利，就必須要爭取前體制內群體，包括軍隊出來的，也包括安全系統內讓人忌憚的特務們，沒有這些系統裡出來的人幫忙，對付中共是不可能成功的，這話可以放在這兒。

Why? Because I know that to truly win, we must win over people from inside the system—including those from the military, and even the feared agents from the security apparatus. Without defections from those systems, it is impossible to bring down the CCP. Mark my words.

秘密系統這個群體裡當然有人與我有聯絡，事實上，他們中很多人都在觀察我的情況和遭遇，這一點自是令黨國十分不快。

Of course, some within the secret system are already in contact with me. In fact, many of them are closely watching my situation and what happens to me—and this clearly makes the Party-state uncomfortable.

原因也很簡單，他們中許多人都幹了不少壞事，而我作為一個保護了目標的雙面諜，幾乎是他們中最乾淨的存在，如果連我都團結不了，你就別幻想爭取他們了，他們肯定不會來支援你。

The reason is simple: many of them have done terrible things. But as someone who protected a target from within—a double agent—I am arguably the “cleanest” among them. If even I cannot be united with, don’t dream about winning them over. They will not come to your side.

溫和圓潤的倡議，對於一貫強調中庸之道的華人而言，自然更易被接受，但卻也因此易落入泛泛而談的漩渦，坐而論卻不願起而行，而即便是接受，更多的也是流於裝點的表面，實則各種嫉妒、詆譭、構陷、陰陽怪氣……哪有半點妥協的氣度？

Mild and polished proposals do appeal to Chinese audiences raised on the virtue of moderation. But precisely because of that, they often descend into vague platitudes—lots of talk, no action. And even when such proposals are accepted, it’s often just for show. Beneath the surface lie jealousy, defamation, sabotage, passive aggression... Is that what you call a spirit of compromise?

真正成熟的反對陣營，能夠事分輕重緩急，明白什麼階段該作什麼事。該旗幟鮮明決不妥協時，就決不妥協比石頭還強硬；該認清局勢適時妥協時，就及時妥協比楊柳還柔軟；而到了該放下過往實現和解時，即便周圍人仍在喊打喊殺，你收刀入鞘的動作也要和當初拔刀時一樣堅毅果決。

A truly mature opposition knows how to prioritize and act accordingly at each stage.

When it’s time to be unyielding, be firmer than stone.

When the moment calls for flexibility, bend like the willow.

And when the time comes to lay down old grudges and reconcile, even if others still shout for vengeance, you must sheath your sword with the same conviction with which you once drew it.

建立民主憲政，開創一個自由的新國家，乃移山填海千秋之業，每一個投入其中的你，可以問問自己和你身後的運動：你們到底有沒有開國的那個器量和氣象？

Building a democratic constitutional republic—founding a free new nation—is a task as vast as moving mountains and reshaping oceans.

If you are committed to this cause, ask yourself, and ask the movement behind you:

Do you truly possess the stature and vision worthy of founding a nation?