On September 12, 2026, two scholars from Guangdong published a quantitative trade model study in the peer‑reviewed journal Southern Economy. The study estimates that if the United States and China completely sever economic and trade ties, both superpowers would be harmed, while the overall economic gains of most other countries, including Southeast Asia, would increase. The research further notes that these gains are fragile; if those countries also cut economic links with China, the prior gains would quickly turn into losses.