Forecast September as the month with the highest liquidity pressure in the second half of the year - Chronicle

According to model predictions, September will be the month with the highest liquidity pressure in the second half of the year, possibly at the 79th percentile historically, mainly because multiple drawdown events are concentrated in mid-to-late September.

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一个狠人

2026-09-23 06:33 · 一个狠人发布了新视频：九成人都在猜美股漲跌，可方向本就是隨機漫步。我換個思路：不猜方向，只測它抗不抗揍。結果特別反直覺——壓力爆表平均根本不跌，大跌概率卻翻倍。現在緩衝偏厚、AI擁擠度94分位，九月最兇

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This event Forecast September as the month with the highest liquidity pressure in the second half of the year 2026.09.01 · Verified

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Article · 2026-06-22 03:07 A ruthless person: 90% of people guess whether US stocks will rise or fall, but the direction is a random walk. I changed my thinking: I don't guess the direction, I only test if it can withstand a beating. The result is particularly counterintuitive - it doesn't fall on average under extreme pressure, but the probability of a big drop doubles. Now the buffer is thick, AI crowding is at the 94th percentile, and September is the most ferocious.

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