Trump's "Transactional World": Is the US Relying on Buying and Selling for Diplomacy?
Recently, the global situation has been changing frantically, and the post-WWII international order seems to be disintegrating at an accelerating pace. Just this week at the United Nations General Assembly, the United States actually stood with Russia and North Korea in opposition to Ukraine and Europe. Not only is this scene rare, it is downright mind-blowing! Friedrich Merz, Germany's prospective chancellor, even remarked that NATO might break up before June. The world seems to be entering a new era where "might makes right," where powerful nations strike deals in secret while weak nations are left to be manipulated. Meanwhile, the Trump team believes that this "transactional diplomacy" will not only bring peace, but also stop the US from being a sucker and allow it to make huge profits off its superpower status. The question is, is this line of thinking really viable? In reality, this will only make the world more dangerous and leave the US weaker and poorer.
After taking office, Trump began aggressively pushing his "gangster-style" transactional diplomacy, the most obvious example being Ukraine. Initially, he demanded an exorbitant price, asking Ukraine for $500 billion worth of minerals in exchange for support; later, settling for second best, he shifted to a vague agreement on jointly developing minerals. But the question is: will the US actually provide security guarantees for Ukraine? Nobody knows—perhaps not even Trump himself has figured it out.
Although the people under him have their own separate calculations, they do agree on one point: they feel that post-WWII international rules put the US at a disadvantage, leaving it long dragged down by unfair trade and overseas wars. Trump, on the other hand, believes he can maximize US interests through "negotiation" and "dealmaking," so whether it is territory, technology, or minerals, everything can be brought to the table for bargaining. After speaking with French President Emmanuel Macron about the Ukraine issue on February 24, he even bluntly stated: "My whole life is a deal."
Thus, we now see Trump sending a group of his business-minded associates flying around the world, such as Steve Witkoff. This guy's mission is to shuttle between various nations to help Trump negotiate a series of quid pro quos—for example, getting Saudi Arabia to recognize Israel, or even helping Russia return to the international stage.
Now, the international order in Trump's mind has completely transformed. His logic is very simple: America First, and for other countries, it just depends on what bargaining chips you can offer. Under this new system, powerful states hold the advantage: Russia wants to restore its imperial glory; Saudi Arabia hopes to dominate the Middle East; and Xi Jinping, being both a communist and a nationalist, wants to establish a world order that aligns with China's interests. And what about traditional allies? In Trump's eyes, their reliance and loyalty are merely leverageable vulnerabilities, not worth cherishing at all.
The question is: will Trump's "transactional world" really make the US stronger? It will likely have the opposite effect.
In the post-WWII international order, there was a fundamental principle: territory is not traded. But Trump doesn't see it that way; he believes everything is negotiable. For example: • Ukraine's borders could be determined by a handshake between him and Putin; • The territories of Israel, Lebanon, and Syria are already blurred due to war; • Trump has even set his sights on Gaza and Greenland, and might trade these places for benefits one day; • If the US and China strike deals, Xi Jinping might propose certain concessions in exchange for control over Taiwan, the South China Sea, or the Himalayan region.
Beyond territory, economic transactions are completely disregarding the rules as well. Previously, everyone followed WTO rules; but now? Trump directly intervenes in commercial negotiations via the government, covering energy output, infrastructure, chip factories, Musk's Starlink satellites, and even a desert golf course... it's unimaginable that even this can be negotiated.
Trump himself believes this is beneficial for the US, but in reality, the world is becoming increasingly chaotic as a result, and even the US itself will suffer.
First of all, the global leadership the US enjoyed over past decades relied not only on military might, but on a stable international trade and financial system. Simply put, the ability of the US to sustain massive fiscal deficits and of corporations to make huge profits in global markets all stemmed from the stability of the international system. Trump's reckless approach directly trades away long-term US interests as short-term bargaining chips.
Even worse, he believes the US can "abandon Europe and forsake Asian allies" on the grounds that "America has a beautiful ocean as a natural barrier." But the problem is, modern warfare has long ceased to be just ground combat; the rise of cyber warfare and space warfare has rendered physical distance virtually meaningless. Don't forget, back when Japan attacked Pearl Harbor, the US thought it was far enough away, yet was still dragged into the war.
More realistically, the US ability to project military power globally cannot function without allies, such as: • Ramstein Air Base in Germany • Pine Gap intelligence facility in Australia • The missile warning systems in the Canadian Arctic If the US continues down Trump's playbook, these allies may no longer offer their help for free in the future.
The crux of the problem is that Trump thinks the US can control the world through deals, but the reality is that his approach is eroding American influence. When he treats allies as pawns that can be sold out at any moment, countries like Europe, Japan, and India will naturally begin to huddle together for warmth and no longer trust the US. If the world becomes more chaotic, the US will instead face more new threats while possessing fewer and fewer diplomatic and security tools of its own. Imagine a world without American leadership: • A nuclear arms race could break out in Asia, because with the collapse of the US alliance system, nobody will believe that nuclear weapons can be controlled anymore. • Europe might build its own defense system, and might even consider improving relations with China or Russia. • The situation in the Middle East will become more complex, and US influence in the region will decline.
This is the real risk of Trump's "transactional diplomacy"—it might look like a way to make some quick cash in the short term, but in the long run, the US will become more isolated and more vulnerable.
Ultimately, friends, credibility, and international rules are far more important than short-term transactions. Trump thinks he can maximize US interests through negotiations, but in reality, his actions are making the world more dangerous and the US weaker. Perhaps Congress, the markets, or voters can still force Trump to change direction at certain critical junctures, but today's world has already begun preparing for an "era without rules."