2026-11-06
A report released by Bloomberg Economics on November 6 stated that if the Democratic Party slows down AI investment and data center construction after a major victory in the U.S. midterm elections, China's growth, which relies on AI hardware exports, will be hit. Net exports contributed nearly 40% of China's economic growth in the third quarter, and chips and computer products accounted for 40% of the year-on-year increase in exports in the first nine months.
2026-11-06
At the Bu Ming Bai Festival held in Tokyo, the Bu Ming Bai Podcast invited Professor Xu Chenggang to discuss the institutional logic behind China's economic growth and recession, as well as how ordinary people can cope, using his book 'The Institutional Genes' as a starting point.
2026-11-05
On November 5, Ding Xuexiang, member of the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the CCP Central Committee and Vice Premier of the State Council, stated at the opening ceremony of the 9th China International Import Expo (CIIE) in Shanghai that the reason for the huge trade surplus is that China wants to import many products but cannot buy them, or is not allowed to buy them, and that normal trade in high-tech products is being interfered with. He also refuted claims that China is squeezing the economies of other countries.
2026-10-31
According to the Associated Press, data released by China's National Bureau of Statistics on October 31 showed that the manufacturing PMI for October fell from 50.1 in September to 49.3, the new export orders index dropped from 50.0 to 48.7, and the production index fell from 51.7 to 49.8, indicating that factory activity has shifted from expansion to contraction.
2026-10-26
On October 26, Bloomberg reported on a Morgan Stanley study saying that the Chinese stock market may not have bottomed out yet, and that offshore Chinese stocks could fall another 10%–15% before approaching historically low valuations, with weak economic consumption, pressure on e-commerce, and fears of tax-triggered selling of trusts intensifying the adjustment.
2026-10-25
Bloomberg reported on October 25 that China's stock market has shrunk by about $3.5 trillion from its high earlier this year in May, with the CSI 300 index falling into a bear market the previous week, as weak consumption and price wars squeeze corporate profits.
2026-10-24
According to a Nikkei Asia report on October 24, against the backdrop of intensifying competition among Chinese automakers and Europe's expanding armaments, Volkswagen's 125-year-old plant in Osnabrück, Germany, plans to halt car production in the summer of 2027 and shift to producing air-defense equipment and parts. In cooperation with Rafael, it aims to retain about 1,200 of its 1,800 jobs. Stickers opposing the conversion to military production have appeared near the plant.
2026-10-20
According to a Wall Street Journal report on October 20, China's GDP in the third quarter grew 4.5% year-on-year, with strong exports surging 36% year-on-year in September, and the trade surplus expected to hit another record.
2026-10-15
Germany is pushing the EU to propose safeguard measures by the end of the year to impose quotas on Chinese imports of chemical products, machinery, and potentially pharmaceuticals, in addition to planned quotas on Chinese hybrid vehicles.
2026-10-15
According to a report by the South China Morning Post, after successfully pressing China to cap its exports of hybrid vehicles to Europe at 350,000 units per year, EU member states are emboldened and have now reached a consensus on adopting a tougher trade stance toward China, preparing to speed up a series of follow-up unilateral actions.
2026-10-15
On October 15, sources revealed that the European Commission has begun assessing import data for the chemicals, machinery and other industries, and von der Leyen proposed at the summit that safeguard and quota measures be taken to protect the relevant industries.
2026-10-15
On October 15, China's Ministry of Commerce commented on the China-EU understanding on export restrictions for hybrid vehicles, calling it "reciprocal and mutually beneficial" and saying it safeguarded the practical interests of Chinese enterprises.
2026-10-15
According to a report by The Economist on October 15, China's consumer-grade 3D printer industry is rising rapidly, with export value in the first half of this year up 90% year-on-year. Chinese companies' global market share has climbed from 19% to 96% over the past decade, with Shenzhen Creality, Anycubic, ELEGOO, and Bambu Lab dominating the consumer-grade market.
2026-10-14
On October 14, according to a Financial Times report, data from the General Administration of Customs showed that exports in September grew 36.3% year-on-year in dollar terms, far exceeding the expected 25.7%; the month's trade surplus reached a record $133.5 billion, with the cumulative surplus for the first nine months at $938.1 billion. Chips and data processing equipment accounted for 17.9% of exports, exports to the US rose 39.6%, and exports to Europe rose 25.3%.
2026-10-13
Russian authorities announced a ban on the entry of trucks and special equipment models from several Chinese brands, including Dongfeng, Foton, XCMG and JAC, into the Russian market, citing reasons such as non-compliance with safety requirements.
2026-10-13
On October 13, the IMF released its latest World Economic Outlook, raising Taiwan's 2026 growth forecast from 5.2% in April to 10.7%, while lowering the mainland's forecast by 0.1 percentage points to 4.5%; Taiwan's growth is mainly driven by demand for AI and advanced chips.
2026-10-11
According to a report by the Financial Times, China's economic growth in the second quarter fell to 4.3%, below the full-year target range of 4.5% to 5%. Retail sales and fixed-asset investment were weak, and the property market has been in a downturn for more than five years.
2026-10-11
Srinivasan, head of the International Monetary Fund's Asia Department, noted that China's growth model of relying on investment, manufacturing and exports is approaching its limits, and suggested improving the social security system, adjusting local government incentives and the land-finance model, warning that otherwise the country could fall into a prolonged slowdown.
2026-10-11
Research by the Conference Board shows that interest payments on the debt of China's central and local governments are expected to reach 1.4 trillion yuan in 2026, far exceeding the roughly 348 billion yuan in 2014; central government debt service is projected to rise to 19.2% of the general public budget.
2026-10-09
On October 9, EU Trade Commissioner Sefcovič announced after meeting with Chinese Commerce Minister Wang Wentao in Beijing that the two sides had reached an understanding on limiting exports of Chinese hybrid and plug-in hybrid vehicles to Europe, which could cut export volumes by more than half.
2026-10-08
Facing massive breach-of-contract damages and a crisis of international credibility, the CCP on October 8 approved continuing to fulfill exports under refined oil contracts totaling 3.7 million tons and worth US$4.5 billion that had already been signed in October.
2026-10-08
On October 8, The Wall Street Journal reported that, facing difficulties such as the real estate downturn, insufficient domestic demand, and second-quarter GDP growth slowing to 4.3%, the stimulus measures introduced by the Chinese government — including mortgage subsidies and capital injections into banks — lean toward caution and are unlikely to fundamentally reverse the economic weakness.
2026-10-06
According to a report by The New York Times on October 6, China's value-added tax refunds for exporters reached $318.2 billion last year, equivalent to 1.5% of GDP; the renminbi depreciated by more than 14% from the start of 2022 after inflation adjustment, and the export model has intensified friction with trading partners.
2026-10-03
On October 3, China's Ministry of Commerce announced the launch of an anti-dumping investigation into p-nitrotoluene imported from the European Union, with the investigation period running until October 2027 and extendable by six months. The ministry said prices of the relevant EU products fell by nearly 60% cumulatively from 2022 to 2025, and noted that the EU has launched 28 trade remedy investigations against China since 2025.
2026-10-02
The Peterson Institute for International Economics released a report pointing out that from January to July this year, the gap between China's customs-reported exports to the United States and U.S.-recorded imports from China reached $99.8 billion, and the deviation in China-U.S. import and export data reached 10.5 standard deviations, which cannot be explained by statistical definitions.
2026-10-01
Starting from National Day on October 1, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) issued stricter restrictions: apart from ensuring flights to Hong Kong and Macau and some marine fuel, all exports of refined oil products such as diesel and gasoline have been halted, and all signed contracts have been cancelled.
2026-10-01
EU Trade Commissioner Šefčovič warned during the G20 trade ministers' meeting that Chinese exports are threatening key European industries such as automobiles and steel, and that overcapacity combined with global market turmoil could endanger entire sectors within weeks or months.
Location: Milwaukee, United States ·
Importance III ·
Verification: Reported ·
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2026-10
China and the EU recently reached an arrangement on import quotas for Chinese hybrid vehicles, against the backdrop of EU concerns over the impact of low-priced Chinese goods on domestic industries.
2026-09-30
On September 30, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) published a new book, "Toward a New Growth Model for the Chinese Economy," on its official website, pointing out that linking local officials' performance evaluation to GDP targets has led to infrastructure expansion, land-sale financing, and the accumulation of local government financing vehicle (LGFV) debt. LGFV cash flows can cover only about one-quarter to one-third of interest payments. The book recommends improving social security, advancing household registration (hukou) reform, and increasing the progressivity of the tax system.
2026-09-29
The fiscal interest subsidy policy was officially announced on September 29 and went into effect at the start of the National Day holiday; combined with developer discounts, it drove up new home transaction volumes in some key cities.
2026-09-29
An X account named “所谓伊人在水一方” uploaded a video of a female teacher talking about student safety, in which she reminds high school students to guard against strangers, vehicles, and the risk of losing contact.
2026-01
Ministry of Commerce data show that from January to July 2026, actual foreign investment nationwide was 438.33 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 6.2%.
2026
The video's author lists indicators from the first half of the year — contracting consumption, high-ranking officials falling from power, declines in fiscal revenue and household savings, and rising unemployment and credit defaults — claiming all have set historical records; no unified source can be found for any of the data.
2026-09-18
In a conversation, Morgan Stanley's Chief Economist for China, Xing Ziqiang, pointed out that China's social security expenditure accounts for only about 8% of GDP, far below the OECD average of 25% and the levels of developing countries with similar per capita GDP, and also mentioned group disparities in the enjoyment of public services.
2026-09-19
On September 19, Huang Yiping, a member of the Monetary Policy Committee of the People's Bank of China, stated at the Beijing Economic Forum that artificial intelligence may exacerbate the contradiction between China's overcapacity and insufficient household purchasing power. He pointed out that distribution leaning toward capital leads to weak demand, and suggested increasing the proportion of household income through market-oriented reforms, while the central government borrows to repair the balance sheets of local governments and enterprises.
2026-09-19
At the Tsinghua Wudaokou Chief Economists Forum, four scholars—Lin Yifu, Yu Yongding, Yao Yang, and Li Xunlei—concentrated their efforts to call on the central government to adopt expansionary fiscal policies and bail out local government debt.
2026-09-18
According to the blogger in the video, the EU has been in long-term talks with China over Chinese dumping in the EU of new energy vehicles, steel, medical equipment and other products, and has set October of this year as the final deadline. If the negotiations break down, the EU market will be closed and the relevant Chinese products will be unable to enter.
2026-09-15
On September 15, The Wall Street Journal published an article pointing out that while China can avoid a sudden financial crisis through its state-controlled financial system, the losses from real estate and bank bad loans will not disappear. Economist Michael Pettis believes that the losses will be borne by ordinary residents in the long run through low deposit returns and shrinking asset values, rather than manifesting in public forms such as bank failures.
2026-09-15
On September 15, German Chancellor Merz criticized China at the Berlin Entrepreneurs' Conference, stating that through state intervention, overcapacity, and export subsidies, China has driven the EU's trade deficit with China to over 300 billion euros. EU leaders plan to discuss in October whether to deploy trade defense instruments.
2026-09-15
Wen Bin, chief economist at China Minsheng Bank, published a column on September 15 saying that the financing structure in August continued to optimize and better match new quality productive forces; the claim is accused of masking the contraction of credit in the private sector.
2026-09-08
According to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, China's automobile exports reached 5.096 million units in the first half of 2026, a year-on-year increase of 65.3%.
2026-09-08
Chinese car sales in Thailand have overtaken Japanese cars, breaking the long-standing dominance of Japanese automakers in the Southeast Asian market; in Australia they have also surpassed Japan to become the largest source country of car imports.
2026-09
As the lives of ordinary people grow ever harder, the Chinese Communist Party authorities seem to turn a blind eye to their suffering, continuing to tout a bright outlook for China’s economy and calling on all sectors of society to revel in economic prosperity.
2026-09-01
On August 24, 2026, the Ministry of Commerce, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, and the State Administration for Market Regulation jointly issued guidelines requiring Chinese automakers to avoid frequent and large price adjustments overseas and not to disrupt market order.
2026-09
In the first 8 months of 2026, securities transaction stamp duty grew nearly twofold year-on-year. Funds mainly changed hands among households, brokerages, the fiscal authorities and insurance companies, without generating any new investment.
2026-09
At the recent Tsinghua PBC School Forum, economists within the system, including Lin Yifu, Yu Yongding, Yao Yang, and Li Xunlei, rarely criticized economic policy en masse. Yu Yongding said the central government's books are clean while local governments are a complete mess, and called on the central government to issue bonds to replace local debt.
2026-09
In 2026, Shenzhen's cross-border e-commerce sector has been hit by an unprecedented clearing-out, with veteran sellers in Bantian, Fuyong, Huanan City and elsewhere who had endured for five or six years successively clearing out their stores, cutting operations and scaling back, while some simply shut their doors.
2026-08-23
People’s Daily continues to publish “Zhong Caiwen” articles, claiming that China’s economy has shown “strong resilience.”
2026-08-23
Chinese state media published an article characterizing the 4.7% economic growth in the first half of the year as high-quality, arguing that it is in line with the current economic reality.
2026-08-22
Bo Guagua posted a long message on X, suggesting that Canada reduce its trade dependence on the United States and instead strengthen trade with China, including importing Chinese electric vehicles and Great Wall wine.
2026-08-22
People’s Daily published an article signed “Zhong Caiwen,” arguing that observations of China’s economy should not focus only on single-month data.
2026-08-22
Chinese state media People’s Daily published a commentary defending China’s strong exports and rebutting warnings of a “new round of China shock.”
2026-08-17
Li Qiang presided over a State Council meeting, calling for persisting in expanding domestic demand, focusing on the principal contradiction, seizing on areas with long industrial chains and large scale, and promoting the domestic economic cycle and consumption upgrading.
2026-08-17
On August 17, 2026, China's National Bureau of Statistics rarely broke its long-standing convention of releasing data in the morning, postponing the July national economic data to 3 p.m., after the A-share market closed, sparking market concerns that the data was under pressure.
2026-08-16
On the evening of August 16, the Chinese Communist Party's first container ship set sail from Ningbo Port, attempting to head to Europe and the Middle East via the Arctic route in an apparent bid to bypass volatile Middle Eastern shipping lanes.
2026-08-11
On August 11, 2026, data from the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA) showed that China's overseas auto shipments reached 918,000 units in July, up 88% year-on-year and accounting for more than 40% of production; however, domestic passenger vehicle retail sales plunged 21% year-on-year, with fuel-powered vehicles down 41%.
2026-08-09
On August 9, 2026, Reuters reported that in the first half of 2026 German exports to China fell by more than 12% year on year to below 37 billion euros, imports from China grew 8.9%, and the trade deficit with China widened to about 55 billion euros.
2026-08-06
The yield on one-year US Treasury bonds reached 4.6%, compared to 1.3% for a five-year fixed deposit at China Construction Bank and 1.7% for savings bonds issued by the Ministry of Finance.
2026-08
The General Administration of Customs of the People's Republic of China released August foreign trade data, showing that dollar-denominated exports rose 25% year-on-year, and the cumulative increase from January to August reached 19.3%.
2026-08-01
On August 1, 2026, Qiushi, the journal of the CCP Central Committee, published an article candidly acknowledging that there is a temperature gap between macroeconomic data and the micro-level experience of the ordinary public, conceding that intensifying competition for jobs and improvements in income have fallen short of expectations, sparking widespread social discussion.
2026-08-01
On August 1, 2026, a video in which the EU reported serious safety risks such as excessive formaldehyde levels and banned chemicals in a number of Chinese-made export products sparked heated debate among domestic netizens over double standards for products at home and abroad; the video's comment section was subsequently cleared entirely.
2026-07-30
On July 30, 2026, the CCP Central Committee Politburo held a meeting to analyze the economic situation. The Wall Street Journal reported that the meeting emphasized supply-side optimization and the implementation of existing policies, sending a clear signal that there is no intention to unleash flood-style massive stimulus in the face of slowing economic growth.
2026-07-29
People's Daily published guidance opinions, releasing a strong signal of investigating the Ctrip monopoly case and cracking down on antitrust involution, drawing outside attention to the authorities' further rectification of foreign and private enterprises.
2026-07-24
The CCP Central Committee held a symposium with non-Party figures at Zhongnanhai. Presiding over the meeting, Xi Jinping said that China's economy is currently facing certain difficulties and challenges.
2026-07-24
At a symposium with non-Party figures, Xi Jinping acknowledged for the first time in his own words that China's economy is experiencing a severe downturn. The news is regarded as an important milestone, foreshadowing the gravity of China's economic situation.
2026-07-22
On July 22, 2026, Zhang Enhui, Secretary of the Changchun Municipal Party Committee, presided over an enlarged meeting of the Municipal Party Committee Standing Committee. The official communiqué stated that the city's economic development is currently facing "unprecedented difficulties and challenges."
Location: Changchun, Jilin ·
Importance IV ·
Verification: Official claim ·
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2026-07-22
On July 22, 2026, the CCP Changchun Municipal Committee held an expanded standing committee meeting to conduct an in-depth analysis of the economic situation in the first half of the year, and the official announcement rarely admitted that the city's economic development is facing unprecedented difficulties and severe challenges.
2026-07-15
On July 15, 2026, China's National Bureau of Statistics released data showing that national GDP grew 4.7% year-on-year in the first half of 2026, while growth in the second quarter slowed to 4.3%, falling short of the full-year target, with real estate investment down 18% year-on-year.
2026-07-15
China announced that GDP grew 4.3% in the second quarter. Nominal growth exceeded real growth for the first time in 13 quarters, mainly driven by price increases upstream.
2026-07-14
China's announced June exports grew 27% in dollar terms, with integrated circuits and servers alone contributing 11 percentage points.
2026-07-08
A China economic briefing released by the World Bank on July 8 pointed out that China's domestic demand will continue to shrink and housing prices will fall, with the root cause being that the government of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) uses 43% of its budget for investment while underfunding people's livelihood.
2026-07-07
Renowned macroeconomist Gao Shanwen has passed away due to illness at the age of 55. He previously worked at institutions such as Peking University and Guotai Junan Securities, and was well-known for his profound insights and warnings regarding the Chinese economy.
2026-07-04
The quarterly meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee of the People's Bank of China adjusted the economic tone from "steady progress" to "toward the new, toward the better," and listed structural optimization as one of the challenges facing the economy.
2026-07
China's official data shows Q2 GDP grew 4.3% year-on-year, the slowest pace since the end of 2022.
2026-07
The market widely expects China's year-on-year GDP growth in the second quarter of 2026 to fall back to 4.2% to 4.5%, while the Bank of China Institute of International Finance has forecast 4.7%.
2026-06-18
The website of the Chinese Communist Party's theoretical journal Qiushi published a commentary article titled "Boost Consumption with Greater Vigor," proposing measures such as increasing residents' income, improving the social security system, rescuing the real estate sector, and repairing residents' balance sheets.
2026-06
After Putin's visit to China and his promise to increase oil supplies to China, CCP China eased refined oil export restrictions in June, resuming some external contract fulfillment.
2026-04-25
Justin Yifu Lin, dean of the Institute of New Structural Economics at Peking University, said in Hefei that China is only 135 dollars short of the high-income country threshold and could cross it by next year at the latest.
2026-01-19
China's statistical department announced that the nominal GDP for 2025 is approximately 140 trillion yuan, a figure used to estimate the economic losses caused by information control.
2026
According to International Monetary Fund estimates, the actual scale of the Chinese government's debt in 2026 will be about 200 trillion yuan, reaching 135% of GDP.
2026
Based on calculations using International Monetary Fund data, China’s actual government debt ratio is projected to exceed 200% in 2026.
2026
Based on data from the International Monetary Fund, the video estimates that China's fiscal deficit in 2026 is expected to exceed 15%.
2026
Data from China's Ministry of Commerce shows that after reaching a peak of 1.23 trillion in 2024, the national actual utilized foreign investment fell to 747.6 billion last year, a year-on-year decrease of 40%, and has continued to decline by 7% this year on a low base.
2025-12
According to estimates in the Southwestern University of Finance and Economics' "2025 Report on the Fiscal Conditions of Provinces, Cities, and Counties," in 2024 the average fiscal self-sufficiency rate of the country's 2,774 county-level areas was about 38%, with the lowest county at only about 1%.
2025
In 2025, China's high-tech industry actually used 241.8 billion yuan in foreign investment, down 15.6% year on year.
2025
China-Brazil bilateral trade volume reached $188 billion in 2025, ranking first in Latin America, yet Brazil's GDP growth rate over the past 15 years ranks second to last among major Latin American countries.
2025
Despite the Chinese ban, Japan's total seafood exports recovered in 2025 and hit a record high of 423.1 billion yen, a year-on-year increase of 17.2 percent.
2025
Statistics bulletin of the National Health Commission shows that in 2025 there were 15.109 million voluntary blood donation visits nationwide, with a donation rate of 10.9 per 1,000 people; all three key indicators dropped by about 11% compared with 2023; in 2024, donations were already more than 1 million visits fewer than in 2023.
2024-12-03
In a speech at the end of 2024, Gao Shanwen expressed sensitive views on the cyclical bubbles, consumption structure, actual growth rate, and future low growth of the Chinese economy. The speech was subsequently banned, marking his final public address.
2023
Last year, daily rental rates in China's robot rental market ranged from 5,000 to 15,000 yuan, used mainly for performance-type events such as mall openings, auto show booths, and warm-up acts at annual galas.
2022-10
University of Chicago scholar Martinez, using satellite nighttime light data, found that annual GDP growth in authoritarian countries is overstated by an average of about 35%, and that China's figure may have been overstated by about one third over the past two decades.
2018-01-11
In January 2018, Tianjin Binhai New Area switched its GDP statistical basis from registered to local, revising its 2016 GDP from 1,000.231 billion yuan to 665.4 billion yuan, a drop of about one third; the Tianjin Municipal Bureau of Statistics said this had no impact on the city's overall GDP.
2012
The sum of GDP figures reported by provinces and municipalities in 2012 was 57.66 trillion yuan, about 10% higher than the 51.93 trillion yuan calculated by the National Bureau of Statistics; the bureau said the difference was mainly due to double counting in the tiered accounting system and differences in raw data.
2007-03
The then-Secretary of the Liaoning Provincial Party Committee, Li Keqiang, told the US Ambassador that Liaoning's GDP figures were man-made and for reference only, and that he only looked at electricity consumption, railway cargo volume, and bank loans.
2001-12-11
On December 11, 2001, China officially became a member of the World Trade Organization after an agreement was reached at the ministerial conference in Doha.
2001
China joined the World Trade Organization in 2001, when Washington made a bipartisan bet that trade would make China a closer friend and set it on the path to freedom.
Location: Washington, United States ·
Importance III ·
Verification: Verified ·
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1993-12
In late 1993, China determined the plan to unify the RMB exchange rate, merging the official and market rates. The relevant reforms were officially implemented the following year.
1976
In October 1976, the ten-year-long Cultural Revolution ended with the "downfall of the Gang of Four"; the prolonged political campaigns had a severe impact on China's economy.