On October 26, Bloomberg reported on a Morgan Stanley study saying that the Chinese stock market may not have bottomed out yet, and that offshore Chinese stocks could fall another 10%–15% before approaching historically low valuations, with weak economic consumption, pressure on e-commerce, and fears of tax-triggered selling of trusts intensifying the adjustment.
PLA Daily reported on October 24 and 26: a unit of the Air Force conducting training no longer hands out new briefcases and instead circulates old ones, while officers and soldiers of a detachment of the Henan Armed Police Corps made mobile target drones and other training equipment themselves to save procurement funds.
Bloomberg reported on October 25 that China's stock market has shrunk by about $3.5 trillion from its high earlier this year in May, with the CSI 300 index falling into a bear market the previous week, as weak consumption and price wars squeeze corporate profits.
On October 13, the IMF released its latest World Economic Outlook, raising Taiwan's 2026 growth forecast from 5.2% in April to 10.7%, while lowering the mainland's forecast by 0.1 percentage points to 4.5%; Taiwan's growth is mainly driven by demand for AI and advanced chips.
According to a report by the Financial Times, China's economic growth in the second quarter fell to 4.3%, below the full-year target range of 4.5% to 5%. Retail sales and fixed-asset investment were weak, and the property market has been in a downturn for more than five years.
Srinivasan, head of the International Monetary Fund's Asia Department, noted that China's growth model of relying on investment, manufacturing and exports is approaching its limits, and suggested improving the social security system, adjusting local government incentives and the land-finance model, warning that otherwise the country could fall into a prolonged slowdown.
Research by the Conference Board shows that interest payments on the debt of China's central and local governments are expected to reach 1.4 trillion yuan in 2026, far exceeding the roughly 348 billion yuan in 2014; central government debt service is projected to rise to 19.2% of the general public budget.
On October 8, The Wall Street Journal reported that, facing difficulties such as the real estate downturn, insufficient domestic demand, and second-quarter GDP growth slowing to 4.3%, the stimulus measures introduced by the Chinese government — including mortgage subsidies and capital injections into banks — lean toward caution and are unlikely to fundamentally reverse the economic weakness.
On October 3, a blogger working in the culture and tourism industry lamented that people have entered an "era of pure living", cutting back wherever possible on consumption that brings them pleasure, that he himself is also downgrading his consumption, and said he does not have much confidence in business next year.
On September 30, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) published a new book, "Toward a New Growth Model for the Chinese Economy," on its official website, pointing out that linking local officials' performance evaluation to GDP targets has led to infrastructure expansion, land-sale financing, and the accumulation of local government financing vehicle (LGFV) debt. LGFV cash flows can cover only about one-quarter to one-third of interest payments. The book recommends improving social security, advancing household registration (hukou) reform, and increasing the progressivity of the tax system.
On September 30, the People's Daily WeChat account People's Sharp Commentary published an article in response, arguing that interpreting "living on a tight budget" as having no money is too narrow a reading; in recent years the budgets of Peking University and many other universities have all kept growing, and the key lies in whether funds are spent scientifically and yield results.
The fiscal interest subsidy policy was officially announced on September 29 and went into effect at the start of the National Day holiday; combined with developer discounts, it drove up new home transaction volumes in some key cities.
An X account named “所谓伊人在水一方” uploaded a video of a female teacher talking about student safety, in which she reminds high school students to guard against strangers, vehicles, and the risk of losing contact.
Around September 29, Peking University issued the "Implementation Measures for Meeting the Requirement of Living a Tight Life," making clear that meetings must not be held at 21 scenic and tourist areas, and restricting spending on meetings, training, and travel. The related topic trended on Weibo's hot search, prompting netizens to speculate that Peking University had run out of money.
In response to the call for tightening their belts, many places across China are welcoming National Day in a frugal manner. Erqi District in Zhengzhou has achieved an old flag reuse rate as high as 82.26%, while Shiyan in Hubei and Jiande in Zhejiang have also adopted cost-saving measures such as reusing materials or relying on existing flowerbeds.