Vitality Index 30.8: Breaking Down July Exports, Fiscal Data for New Industries, and Consumption, with August Auto Sales Falling Back to 2021 Levels

The latest reading of the "Life-Extension Index," an economic data site launched by the Teacher Li Is Not Your Teacher team in collaboration with young scholar Li Houchen, is 30.8, up 0.85 month-on-month. According to the index's own scale, only a reading above 50 is considered economically sustainable; the further from 50, the less sustainable it is. At 30.8, it remains far from that line.

On September 22, Teacher Li (@whyyoutouzhele) posted several tweets revealing the data for July and August parsed by the website. Broken down, the message is consistent: the official totals look decent, but they are propped up by exports, a small number of specific products, and fiscal tax rebates, while domestic consumption is trending downward. The following is a summary of this data across five areas: exports, new industries, fiscal policy, consumption, and automobiles, followed by an introduction to the data source, the "Life-Extension Index" itself.

I. Exports: 17.8% Growth, with 14.9 Percentage Points from 15 Products

By official metrics, July exports grew by 17.8% year-on-year, which looks strong. The Life-Extension Index broke down exports by product:

The top 15 products account for only about 1% of the total product count, yet they contributed 14.9 percentage points. Excluding these 15, the remaining 1,195 products contributed only +2.8 percentage points in total, with 492 of them in decline. In other words, export growth is concentrated in a few products, while growth for the majority of products is very weak.

Data released by the General Administration of Customs for August shows that exports grew by 25% in USD terms (see Chronicle General Administration of Customs of China Releases August Foreign Trade Data). Whether the growth in August is similarly concentrated in a few products remains to be seen in the next breakdown from the Life-Extension Index.

II. New Industries: Domestic Share Yields to Exports, Swapping Over Eight Months

The "five major new industries" tracked by the Life-Extension Index are new energy vehicles, integrated circuits, electrification, new energy, and biomedicine, which are typically regarded as new growth drivers for the Chinese economy. The website calculates how much "domestic demand exceeds exports" for every 100 yuan of output:

Last December, domestic demand was 28 yuan higher than exports for every 100 yuan; by July this year, it shifted to exports being 16 yuan higher than domestic demand. The proportion data provided by the site is: the value-added of the five major industries accounts for 9.37% of GDP, slightly higher than the 8.62% in the same month last year, but the composition has swapped: the portion driven by exports rose from 2.88% to 5.43%, while the portion supported by domestic demand fell from 5.74% to 3.94%.

The total volume did not drop because exports filled the gap left by the decline in domestic demand. The Life-Extension Index describes this as "substitution, not collapse." The problem is that the more one relies on exports, the greater the risk of trade friction.

III. Fiscal: Taxes Paid by New Industries Do Not Offset Rebates, Net Amount of −10.3 Billion Yuan in July

The Life-Extension Index calculates the "net contribution" of the five major industries to the fiscal budget by subtracting export rebates and various corporate support measures from the taxes and fees paid by these industries. The result:

In the same period last year, these industries brought positive revenue to the treasury every month; this year, it turned negative in March and has been declining since, reaching −10.317 billion yuan in July, accounting for −0.50% of national tax revenue, which is 2.434 billion yuan less than in June and 139.21 billion yuan less than the same month last year.

The website lists the reasons: the gross tax and fees from the five departments dropped from 54.359 billion yuan in June to 53.745 billion yuan in July, a decrease of only 614 million yuan; however, export tax rebates rose from 51.335 billion yuan to 53.124 billion yuan. Integrated circuits are the biggest drag: the monthly rebate in July was 35.05 billion yuan, which is 3.7 times its gross tax and fees of 9.564 billion yuan, resulting in a net amount of −29.862 billion yuan. March, when it turned negative, was also the month when exports began to surge.

It should be noted that a negative net contribution means "tax rebates and support exceed the taxes paid," it does not mean the companies are losing money. But from a fiscal perspective, these new industries, which have been pinned with high hopes, are now being subsidized by the state for their exports every month. Against the backdrop of governments at all levels "living a tight life" (see Chronicle Central government requires all party and government agencies to get used to living a tight life), it is worth asking where this money is coming from.

IV. Consumption: Total volume +0.6%, a 6-point scissors gap between small shops and shopping malls

In July, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 0.6% year-on-year, which looks unremarkable. The "Life-Sustaining Index" breaks it down:

The difference between the two is about 6 percentage points. The total volume has hardly moved; it is people moving from shopping malls into small shops, buying cheaper goods, which is what is commonly referred to as consumption downgrading. Looking at the trend from March to July, small shop consumption has consistently been above the zero line, while shopping mall brand consumption has been below the zero line for most months.

Note: The growth rate for "below quota" is calculated by the website by subtracting the "above quota" amount from the total retail sales of consumer goods, not obtained through direct surveys.

V. Automobiles: August retail sales fell back to 2021 levels, declining for 9 consecutive months

Automobiles are the largest category of major consumer goods. The "Life-Sustaining Index" uses the total retail sales of consumer goods published by the National Bureau of Statistics minus "retail sales of consumer goods excluding automobiles" to derive the automobile category amount, and then looks at the retail sales of automobile products by units above the quota:

August 2026 was 327.89 billion yuan, which is 100 million yuan less than August 2021 (327.99 billion yuan) five years ago, wiping out all the gains of the past five years.

The year-on-year decline is also continuing to widen:

It has fallen for nine consecutive months since last October, with an 18.5% drop in August. The automotive sector accounts for approximately 22% of retail sales above designated size and one-eighth of total retail sales of consumer goods; the slump in car sales is a significant drag on overall consumption.

Note: Figures are in current prices; the scope of units above designated size is redefined annually, so year-over-year comparisons across different years are not equivalent to official comparable-caliber data. The National Bureau of Statistics only released a combined total for January and February 2026, so the table shows the Jan–Feb total, not an estimate.

VI. What do these data points indicate when viewed together?

These five sets of data point to a single conclusion:

1. Growth relies on external demand. High export growth is concentrated in a few products, and the domestic market share of new industries has been overtaken by exports within eight months.
2. External demand relies on fiscal subsidies. The more exports there are, the higher the tax rebates; new industries have shifted from a net positive to a net negative for the treasury, costing 10.3 billion yuan in July alone.
3. Domestic demand is contracting. Total consumption is barely growing, with money flowing from shopping malls to small shops; big-ticket consumption like automobiles has fallen back to levels seen five years ago.

Official aggregate figures combine these offsetting changes, resulting in a facade of "stability." Only when broken down can one see that what sustains this "stability" is continuously increasing exports and fiscal subsidies.

Data Source: What is the "Life Extension Index"?

The Life Extension Index, accessible at xumingzhishu.com, with detailed analysis at mceindex.com (Meaningful China Economy Index, or MCEINDEX). The website claims to conduct monthly research using "open-source data verification + proprietary statistical data" (OSINT), with the slogan "Understand the Chinese economy here." It is currently in preview mode.

Who created it and why?

The Life Extension Index was launched on July 19, 2026, as a collaboration between the team of Twitter blogger Teacher Li Is Not Your Teacher (@whyyoutouzhele) and young scholar Li Houchen (@Ansel_Flipradio), host of the podcast "Flip Radio."

In his launch tweet, Teacher Li wrote that the Chinese economy is the core suspense of China's future destiny. Since the official promotion of the "economic brightness theory" and "new quality productive forces" in 2023, there has been constant debate over the true state of the economy and whether high-tech industries can save China—a question that can be answered with statistical data. Consequently, they launched this index, using the "Five Major Industries Life Extension Index" and other statistical indicators to intuitively demonstrate the contribution of high-tech industries to economic scale, employment, and fiscal revenue, while squeezing the "water" (inflated figures) out of social financing, consumption, and price indices.

On the same day, the partner account Lee1ng (@lilaoshizuikeai) reposted the launch, explaining that despite the overwhelming "economic brightness theory," actual economic data often presents a cruel reality. The project aims to continuously present changes in the Chinese economy by observing and analyzing a series of publicly available Chinese data. The term "Life Extension" in the name has two meanings: one is to ask how much longer new industries can extend the life of the economy, and the other refers to Xi Jinping's "living to 150 years old" theory. The project's own explanation is that it is "exploring whether Xi Jinping's path to a 150-year life extension is effective."

The reading released in the first issue (July 19) was: GDP life-extension index 10.54%, employment life-extension index 1/2, fiscal life-extension index -61.9 billion yuan, meaningful social financing 11.71%, and meaningful retail sales -4%. This article cites the subsequently updated data for July and August.

What to look at and how to calculate

The core question is: Can the five major new industries—new energy vehicles, integrated circuits, electrification, new energy, and biomedicine—fill the gap left by the decline in other economic sectors, and how long can they "extend the life" of the Chinese economy? The index uses 50 as the threshold; above 50 indicates that the economy is sustainable, and the further below 50 it goes, the less sustainable it is.

The website is divided into several sections:

• Life-Extension Index of the Five Major New Industries: Examines industry scale (value-added as a percentage of GDP), theoretical employment stock (7.339 million people directly employed in the five sectors in July, accounting for 1.01% of national employment), and net fiscal contribution after deducting tax rebates and support. The three sets of calculations differ, and the website emphasizes that they cannot be added together directly.
• Monthly Overview: Six signals—scale, employment, fiscal, consumption, prices, and financing—are presented together using the latest complete month of data.
• Meaningful Retail Sales: Uses the official core CPI to strip out price increases to observe real consumption growth; breaks down consumption into below-quota, above-quota, above-quota catering, and major items such as automobiles, home appliances, building materials, and furniture.
• Price Observation: Compares core CPI, the overall CPI index, and industrial prices, and separately calculates the impact of rising gold prices on CPI.
• Meaningful Social Financing: Excludes government debt and discounts for bill-padding and low-quality financing to see how much new financing households and enterprises actually receive.
• Export Structure: Breaks down export growth by product, which is the data used in the first part of this article.

Several points regarding the methodology are worth noting: The raw data comes from official data already released by the National Bureau of Statistics, Customs, etc.; months with missing data are left blank and not estimated; each issue indicates the data cutoff date and version number (data for this issue is as of 2026-07-31); the limitations of the scope are noted below the charts, for example, "negative = tax rebates and support are greater than taxes paid, not equal to corporate losses." The export-driven portion is estimated by multiplying customs export values by a fixed ratio, and the fiscal tax rate and subsidy rate are uniformly based on the 2025 annual snapshot. These are the website's own estimation methods, not official statistics.

Readers who wish to verify or track subsequent months can go directly to the website to view the monthly updates.

Source

• Teacher Li Is Not Your Teacher (@whyyoutouzhele), tweet on September 22, 2026: Export Structure, New Industry Domestic Demand and Exports, New Industry Net Fiscal Contribution, Social Retail Scissors Gap, Automobile Sales, Automobile Charts
• Xuming Index (Life Extension Index) published tweet: Teacher Li Is Not Your Teacher, July 19, 2026; Lee1ng (@lilaoshizuikeai) repost explanation
• Xuming Index / Meaningful China Economic Index: xumingzhishu.com, mceindex.com (Data as of 2026-07-31, version li-fe-v3-20260914)

Related Chronicle: China's July export growth highly dependent on a few products · China's new industry export share surpasses domestic demand within eight months · July new industry net fiscal contribution drops to negative 10.3 billion yuan · July total social consumption grew slightly by 0.6% with a scissors gap between shopping malls and small shops · China's August automobile retail sales fall back to 2021 levels

Related Topics: China's Economy · Economic Growth Slowdown · Economic Downturn · Tax Burden Pressure · Economic Pressure · Fiscal Imperceptible Monetization