"Focusing on the Trump-Xi Summit: What Do Experts Think?" What Are the Important Highlights of the Summit?
Experts analyze the key points of the upcoming Trump-Xi meeting, focusing on the stabilization of U.S.-China relations, the situation in Asia and deterrence, the possibility of bilateral tariff reductions, the AI agenda, and the competition and constraints regarding economic security tools such as export controls.
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I think the most important thing is that Xi Jinping said he wants to build a constructive and more stable relationship. This is very important because if something happens in the Taiwan Strait or the South China Sea, or if something happens at the Diaoyu Islands, also known as the Senkaku Islands, which are disputed with Japan, we could basically be facing a World War III scenario. Now there is a war in Ukraine with Russia, and there is also a war in the Middle East. If a conflict breaks out in Asia as well, then we will be facing a global conflagration, which is very dangerous. Therefore, any effort that can delay such a situation is important. In this regard, I think the most important factor in maintaining the status quo and peace in Asia is deterrence. We need to make Xi Jinping wake up every day feeling that today is not a good day to take action against Taiwan, nor is it a good day to take action against some island near the Philippines, or any other place he might be considering.
Regarding the upcoming summit, the first thing I will look at is whether the two sides can identify a batch of goods to mutually reduce tariffs on. They have said that the trade committee will try to identify $30 billion worth of goods each to see if they can ultimately achieve that. Second, will there be a discussion about artificial intelligence beforehand, and will the content already discussed at lower levels by both sides be brought up at the summit to set an agenda for how to handle artificial intelligence moving forward? I am also thinking about this arms race that both sides have launched in the use of export controls and other economic security tools. Over the past few years, both the U.S. and China have adopted a large number of restrictive measures. If both sides do not restrain themselves, this competition will continue to escalate. This might help ensure economic security, but it will also harm the economies of both countries. So, can we find some way to more systematically constrain this arms race surrounding export controls and economic security tools? For me, this is the third key point I am focusing on during the meeting between the two leaders.
I will mainly focus on the final distribution of tariffs, that is, the tariff levels faced by China, Southeast Asian exporters, Europe, Japan, as well as Canada and Mexico respectively. Because this administration believes that tariffs can play several different roles, but it is not yet entirely clear what goals they actually want to achieve. Tariffs can indeed increase government revenue, change trade flows, and reduce trade deficits over time. But if the tariff rates imposed on China are not much higher than those imposed on U.S. allies and partners, then it will not actually have much effect in changing trade flows, nor will it be very effective as a tool for exerting influence. So I am watching very carefully how these tariff rates are ultimately distributed and exactly how much higher the tariff rates imposed on Chinese imports are compared to those of other countries.