Mass Retreat in Guangdong, Cities Are Empty! Many People Still Don't Know Why Chinese People Are Rejecting the Five Insurances and One Housing Fund?! Why Is There No One Anywhere, Yet Everyone Is Everywhere?! Qi Qi Ba Ba TALK Episode 974, 20260919

This episode explores the widespread "empty city" phenomenon currently appearing in China and the economic pressure behind social security contribution bases. The host points out that many workers' actual wages are far lower than the statutory contribution base for pension and medical insurance, leading to reduced take-home cash and a significant decline in savings and risk-resilience, which causes many to choose to stop paying social security. At the same time, combined with videos filmed by netizens in various places, it reflects that urban shopping malls, streets, factories, and rural areas all appear deserted, mirroring the current reality of labor surplus, weak consumption, and insufficient overall social vitality under economic downward pressure.

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Hello everyone, welcome to Qiqi Baba, I am Qiqi. Regarding this issue of the "five social insurances and one housing fund" in China, there are actually many friends who may not have figured it out, or perhaps they don't understand how the collection ratio works. Let's take a look at why many employees even hope to discuss with their bosses, saying, "Can you not pay the five social insurances and one housing fund for me, and can you convert it into cash and give it to me now?" Let's take a look.

After paying the 'five social insurances and one housing fund' for my employees, I discovered some issues. For instance, an employee's salary is 4,000 yuan per month, but the contribution base for pension insurance is 4,907 yuan. This means even if your salary is less than 4,907, you still have to pay based on 4,907. Correspondingly, the contribution base for medical insurance is 6,744 yuan. This is vastly different from what I previously thought social security was. I thought social security was an inclusive welfare system—a way to forcibly save a portion of your monthly income so that when you are no longer able to work, you have some security. That sounds great. Following this logic, the more you earn, the more should be deducted, and the more you should receive later. The less you earn, the less should be deducted, and the less you receive later. Therefore, this contribution base system makes me feel it creates some problems. Let's look at it from the perspective of a worker: a contribution base higher than the actual salary means more is deducted, leaving less in hand. Take my colleague Yang as an example; paying based on the base rather than the actual salary means over 130 yuan more is deducted each month. Doesn't seem like much, right? But for someone earning 3,000 to 4,000 yuan a month, after deducting fixed monthly costs like rent, food, utilities, and phone bills, how much is left? That 130-plus yuan might account for 10% or even more of what remains. Less money in hand means less savings, and a weaker ability to withstand risks. If some unexpected situation arises, their finances might collapse. Besides this, there is another issue: for the group earning 3,000 to 4,000 yuan a month, their jobs are likely unstable, and social security payments are easily interrupted. For them, paying social security continuously for 15 or 20 years may not be an easy task. That's why when I was hiring, someone asked me in the background if they could opt out of the 'five social insurances and one housing fund' and have that money given to them in cash instead. Of course, that's not allowed. But from this, can we at least infer that cash flow is extremely important to them, to the point where they are unable or unwilling to consider long-term matters? Now, let's switch to the company's perspective and do the math: the cost of hiring two employees at a monthly salary of 4,000 with the 'five social insurances and one housing fund' could instead hire three employees at a monthly salary of 3,000 without them. For some labor-intensive enterprises, this is too tempting; that is real, tangible productivity. Furthermore, the pension insurance paid by the company is twice the amount paid by the individual, and for medical insurance, it is four times. Therefore, the cost burden caused by the contribution base being higher than the actual salary is magnified for the company. So, one can understand why so many companies have the motivation not to pay the 'five social insurances and one housing fund'. This isn't to say we should condone these companies, but rather to understand the reasons behind these phenomena. Next, let's consider a second question: suppose we are in an environment where companies must pay the 'five social insurances and one housing fund' for employees, or else the business owner faces severe consequences. Would this company still have the motivation to pay some employees a salary higher than the contribution base? For example, if the base is 4,907, could they suppress some workers' wages from 4,000 down to 3,000 or even 2,000 to save some of the increased social security costs from their wages? I could even repackage these positions in reverse: although the salary for this job is only 2,000 or 3,000, the company will pay your pension based on 4,907 and your medical insurance based on 6,744. Wouldn't that sound like a very attractive condition? At this point, some friends might say, '2,000 or 3,000 a month? Not even a dog would take that job.' Well, buddy, you say not even a dog would take it because you still have choices. But many people have no choice; they are forced to accept the price offered by the company, and their situation will worsen—they will have even less money in hand. These are the problems I have discovered. I truly look forward to the day when those groups with lower incomes and fewer choices do not have to face these complex games and difficult decisions in this matter. I hope this day comes soon.

So, why are more and more people stopping their social security payments? Because people no longer care about whether they will have any support in their old age. They can't even survive the present. If they keep paying, they will be starving right here, right now. Under these circumstances, who has the capacity to worry about the future? I need this income now to cover my current living expenses. This is why more and more people are stopping their payments. But we all know that China's social security system is essentially current contributors paying for the previous generation, right? Because the money in this social security fund... it certainly cannot all be there. Why has China's social security fund been in deficit? They talk about investments and such, but why is it in a state of loss? Everyone should know: it has been consumed. Under these circumstances, if so many people stop paying now, it basically means that pensions may soon become impossible to pay out; that is the predicament we face. Not to mention that the fiscal budget is full of holes everywhere, so social security funds, including medical insurance and so on, may all be used to plug those holes. If you have studied the history of autocratic and dictatorial regimes, including some ancient dynasties and other Western nations, you would know that when they run out of liquidity and the national treasury is empty, the terrible things they do to move money around to fill the gaps are unimaginable. It is essentially robbing Peter to pay Paul, and then robbing Paul to pay Peter. But in reality, the bricks are becoming fewer and fewer; it only solves the immediate crisis. If they cannot be replenished later—if there are no new bricks coming in—sooner or later, all the ugliness will be exposed before us.

What is going on day after day? There has been no one here for days. For a whole month, you can barely see a soul in this entire mall. In the countryside, people are harvesting rice and corn, but you—in Changchun City—look at how many students are in this class? One, two, three, four, five!

Only five students? Business is really hard to do now! Mom, the whole mall is so big, and there's no one here! Oh my god! There are more staff members than customers!

In the countryside now, there is no one on the streets. Where did everyone go? I came to this village today to do some heat insulation work on a glazed tile roof for a client.

I was worried that the collective work would disturb the neighbors, but my worries were unnecessary. This is Tianhe Airport at 6:30 PM; there is basically no one here. Only our flight has a few people. It is so desolate.

Dongguan truly lives up to its reputation as having the fourth-highest car ownership in the country! No one is riding the subway. It is my first time experiencing Line 1, thumbs up.

One, two, three, four, five, six people in a whole carriage.

In just twenty years, my hometown has turned into a ghost village. Currently, we are the only family that has returned to rebuild our rural home. The neighbors from my childhood have all moved away over the years; no one comes to fight over mountain boundaries or land borders anymore. It all belongs to my family now.

There are over six million people in Nanchang, yet now there is no one on the streets, no one in the malls, no one in the restaurants, and even fewer people in the office buildings. And the factories? There are even fewer people now. Places like Honggutan are also empty. In the past, when China had 1.3 billion people, it was crowded everywhere you went. Now, with 1.4 billion people, everywhere is deserted. Where did the people go? I am puzzled; where did these six million people in Nanchang go? Does anyone know?

This is the real-time pedestrian traffic on the streets of Nanchang at 8:00 PM on a Friday. This area is considered a central location in Nanchang, yet you can barely see anyone on the street.

This is the former food street in Huoshan County. It is 4:30 PM now. Look at it; there is still someone, but there is basically no one here at all! This small county has a permanent population of only 100,000, and the population continues to flow out. This is a pain point for county towns in the central and western regions. This trend is irreversible, compounded by urbanization and the widening gap between the coast and the interior. I just chatted with the landlady, and she said this year's situation is much worse than last year's. Last year was okay, but this year it is getting worse and worse. In a word, I didn't have the heart to tell her the truth.

It is almost as if there is no one here, and many storefronts have already closed. It is past 7:00 PM Beijing time, which should be the busiest time for the mall with the most people. Let me show you the foot traffic at the Wanda Plaza in Dashiang, Guiyang. Take a look, everyone—a real record. It is almost as if there is no one here, and many storefronts have already closed. Look downstairs; it is desolate. I remember when Dashiang first opened, whether it was a weekday or a weekend, there were so many people here. But now, years later, one can only say that times have changed and things are not what they used to be.

I went to the night market tonight and found it very deserted. Where did all the people in Fuzhou go? I came here to pack some crayfish for my wife today and chatted with the landlady. I saw that her shop had no business, so I asked her if business had been bad lately. She said that compared to last year, this year is much, much worse. In previous years, her shop could turn over tables at least three or four times, and she would have outdoor seating at the entrance, but this year, there is basically no one on this entire street. Then I asked her if she had done any market research. I looked at the night market in Wangzhuang, which used to be very popular, and it was also empty. I'm puzzled—don't people go out to have fun at night anymore? After working out, I came out and found it very deserted. Where did everyone go?

Folks, can you believe it? It's Friday night, and I came out to watch a movie, but it's completely empty. There's no one here; you could say it's absolutely deserted. Hmm, are people not bringing their kids out to play anymore? The cinema is even more empty. I didn't dare to believe it, so I checked the time, thinking I might have remembered it wrong, but it's exactly the time after work—past seven o'clock, the time when people should be eating dinner. The most bustling Shangmei Plaza in the city center is actually completely empty. What on earth is going on? Tell me, everyone, where have you all gone? Have you stopped consuming entirely? Are you keeping all your money in your accounts? Come out and spend! If you don't consume, everything will have to close down everywhere.

Let me show you the current situation in our village and see how popular it is. Basically, you can't see anyone, not even an elderly person. Even if you drive at 200 mph, you wouldn't hit anyone because there is simply no one on the road. The young people have all gone out to work, so the children have gone to the county town to study. Look, basically, all the doors are locked. The whole village is almost empty. See? There is no one on this main road. This is a small shop in our village; I estimate it sells about 20 yuan a day. Oh, there's a group of children ahead. Hmm, maybe the kids are on break? Did they come back to see their grandma? Back to their hometown, hmm.

You ask what's the point of going back to the countryside? I am in the countryside right now. I said, look at this, look here, this is the countryside.

In all directions.

Not a single soul. You say the city is full of tricks, but at least it has the hustle and bustle of human life. Although the countryside is vast, there isn't even a soul to chat with. You say this full heart of enthusiasm, it has nowhere to be applied. Going back to the countryside, what can you do? What can you do when you come back?

Let me show you. Let me show you how bad the garment business in Guangzhou really is. A 600-square-meter factory, let me show you how many people are working. There's one person there, and here, just me and my wife. In total, there are nearly 70 or 80 sewing machines in this row, but there are only three operators. I don't know where the masters went to have fun; I haven't seen them all day. At eight o'clock in the evening, my wife and I finished our work and are getting off work too. We can turn off the lights completely in a moment. I just asked that lady, and she is getting off work soon too.

When I was a child, when I went shopping, I felt it was packed with people, and there were traffic jams. The night market was also crowded at night, and there were many street vendors, and it was all traffic jams. Now you see that every household has a car, but the roads are not jammed anymore; there are really no people. Why is this?

Folks, am I the only one who thinks there are many, many fewer people this year? I think there are at least a quarter fewer people. Because before, at this time, it was impossible to find a spot in these two rows of parking spaces, and there would be another row parked vertically outside, totaling three rows of parking spaces. Now, even two rows of parking spaces aren't full, and there's no one parking in the outer row. There are many empty spaces in both rows. I don't know where the people went; it's very strange, especially strange. Then I checked the Shenzhen population trend online. The number of people coming to Shenzhen hasn't decreased, right? That's what the online search says, but I just feel it's not right; there are many, many fewer people. There is no one, very few people, very few people in the shops, very few people on the road, and very few cars in the parking lots. Where did everyone go?

There's no one in the factories! No one! There's no labor shortage this year. Now all the enterprises in Wuhan have basically suspended operations. It's only September 10th. In previous years, at this time, think about the high-wage policies in Wuhan; they were very, very high. And there's also the Kang Kang in Wuhan, hmm, it was also very high every year, but this year the Wuhan market seems to have gone cold directly. What is the reason for this, brothers? Including the fact that there is no labor shortage in Wuhan this year, brothers, don't look forward to anything special in Wuhan anymore. Don't look, brothers.

That's right. Right now, everyone is confused about where all the people have gone, because schools are closing in large numbers, and you can't find anyone—there are no students coming to class. However, some factories are saying, 'Oh, there are too many applicants, we don't have enough positions, please don't come to apply anymore.' Then, in the cities, people feel like, 'Hey, why does it seem like there are fewer people?' But when you go back to the countryside, people say, 'There's no one in the countryside either,' because those in the cities say, 'Oh, they've all returned to their hometowns.' But the rural population hasn't grown or anything like that, right? Yet, during holidays, people say, 'Look, the tourist attractions are exploding with people, it's impossibly crowded.' But then, when it's time to start working or whatever, there's no one again. So it's like a paradox; some say there are many people, others say there are few. In reality, it's just a state of the overall phenomenon. We can notice that the more expensive the consumption, the fewer the people. Places like shopping malls or schools, where you have to make large expenditures, have fewer people and are struggling. However, places like tourist attractions are a relatively cheap form of entertainment, right? Maybe the tickets are only 20 or 30 yuan, but it's a way to relax. If you can't afford to go to malls or expensive places, we still need to get away from work, otherwise, our mental health could easily collapse. We can see many food delivery riders; why do they have mental breakdowns? It's because many of them are truly working ten-plus hours a day, 365 days a year with almost no rest. Under these circumstances, the mental pressure is immense, and people are very, very prone to psychological collapse. So, naturally, people go to tourist spots; you can at least afford a 10 or 20 yuan ticket, right? Furthermore, the reason there's no one in the countryside or the cities is that you basically can't see people on the streets. Because those who have jobs are now in factories or working in highly competitive (involution) environments, they get up at the crack of dawn to go to work and don't get home until very late. During that long stretch of time in between, they are either working or, if they finally have a day off, they are resting. Naturally, you will see fewer people, and the perceived number of people becomes very, very low. This is a current state of national decline. I can only say that the labor force exists, but there is no place for it to shine and generate value. So it really is a very painful thing. Alright, that's all for this episode. If you want to support me, please join the membership channel. If you have other questions you want to ask me or want to communicate with me in real-time, you are also very welcome to join. That's it for this episode, see you next time.