“Focus on the Trump-Xi Summit: What Do Experts Think?” How Will the Trump-Xi Summit Discuss the Taiwan Issue?
The Voice of America Chinese website video "Focus on the Trump-Xi Summit: What Do Experts Think?" discusses the upcoming discussions regarding the Taiwan issue at the Trump-Xi summit. Experts believe that Taiwan itself will not be a disruptive factor, as its democratic development, economic performance, and semiconductor industry are all at the center of the global stage. The real problem lies in China's unwillingness to accept the status quo of Taiwan, as well as its aggression and coercion. Experts are concerned that President Trump might make concessions on the Taiwan issue, such as trading Taiwan for trade interests, and believe that Xi Jinping's main goal is to continue delaying arms sales to Taiwan. Taiwan, for its part, is worried about its future being discussed and decided without its participation, and hopes that the summit will not mention the Taiwan issue to avoid history repeating itself.
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I want to say that Taiwan will not be a destabilizing factor. Taiwan is a thriving democracy with stellar economic performance, with next year's economic growth rate potentially reaching 10%, and it occupies a central global position in advanced semiconductor manufacturing and exports. Therefore, from the surface-level direct causes and Beijing's rhetoric, Taiwan might be portrayed as the problem, but what truly causes problems is China's aggression and coercion, as well as China's unwillingness to accept Taiwan's de facto status quo—this is what brings problems. I know they are unhappy with the ongoing relations between the United States and Taiwan, including security assistance, even though the $14 billion in congressional arms sales notifications remains stalled. I also know they dislike the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and certain contents of the DPP's party platform, but the real issue has always been China's unwillingness since 1949 to accept Taiwan's factual existence and all that Taiwan has achieved in terms of democracy, freedom, and economic performance. So the problem is not Taiwan; the problem is Beijing.
I do worry—there is a Chinese saying that water spilled cannot be gathered back up, meaning once something is said, it cannot be taken back. This implies that one must be extremely cautious on the Taiwan issue. Because with a single word from President Trump, that status quo could change, trading Taiwan for something like rare earths or trade concessions. Such negotiations are asymmetrical; China is the only beneficiary. Therefore, Trump should not make any concessions regarding Taiwan's status, arms sales to Taiwan, or the U.S. defense commitment. However, while theoretically President Trump should not do this, it is hard to predict what he will actually do.
So I think Xi Jinping will bring up the Taiwan issue, and the Taiwan issue will occupy a prominent position in their private talks in Washington. As for what Xi Jinping specifically hopes to get from President Trump, I think the primary goal is likely arms sales to Taiwan. Following his meeting with Xi Jinping in Beijing, President Trump stated that he had delayed arms sales to Taiwan to use them as a good bargaining chip. Since then, of course, we have not seen arms sales to Taiwan approved, so I think Xi Jinping's primary goal is to continue delaying arms sales to Taiwan.
I think he will also mention the upcoming G20 summit and APEC summit, indicating to President Trump that if the U.S. approves arms sales to Taiwan, it could affect whether Xi Jinping decides to meet with Trump during the G20 or APEC summits. In doing so, this would effectively push back arms sales to Taiwan past the end of this year, or even drag them into next year. But I believe Xi Jinping will want to delay arms sales to Taiwan indefinitely, and this will be one of his primary objectives.
I think at this juncture, the scenario that would make Taiwan happy is if any official communique released after the summit completely omits any mention of Taiwan. Of course, as some Taiwanese officials have said, Taiwan's concern is that "it is on the menu, but not at the table." Their greatest fear is that Taiwan's future will be discussed, negotiated, and perhaps even decided without Taiwan's participation, while Taiwan itself is absent. Naturally, from Taiwan's perspective, there is a precedent: what happened in 1979 when the United States and the People's Republic of China established diplomatic relations. Therefore, Taiwan does not want history to repeat itself, and I think that if Taiwan can safely get through this summit without being affected in any way, that would be the best-case scenario.
I think China wants to use Taiwan as part of a deal. One of the problems they've faced for decades is that the US has been unwilling to negotiate on the Taiwan issue or to make Taiwan part of a deal, right? We also know that ahead of the Beijing summit, the Chinese side pushed very hard for President Trump to take certain positions on the Taiwan issue, such as that the US opposes Taiwan independence or that the US does not support Taiwan independence. President Trump did not make these statements while he was in Beijing, but based on my understanding, I think the Chinese side was satisfied with what President Trump said about the Taiwan issue after his visit to China. I think the Chinese side was satisfied with what President Trump said about the Taiwan issue after his visit to China, especially when he said, 'I don't want to see someone declare independence and then we have to run 9,500 miles to fight a war.' I think this was seen as the clearest statement by a US president against Taiwan independence, so I believe the Chinese side is already very satisfied with this outcome.