Russia Changes Its Story 3 Times in 3 Days, From Plague to Unexplained Pneumonia! Denies Any Accident Yet Opens a Criminal Case, Plague's 3-Day Incubation Period Can't Be Hidden, Fuyuan Exercise Already Rehearsed Plague Entering From Russia, 1910 Marmot Hides Rose 20-Fold and 60,000 Died in the Northeast, Keep an Eye on County Hospital Pneumonia Death Rates! It's Stupidity, Not a Deliberate Release

The host has compiled and analyzed the incident regarding the death of an employee at the Irkutsk Anti-Plague Research Institute in Russia. By comparing the contradictory statements of Russian officials with the actual containment measures and criminal investigation initiated, the video points out that the incident was a laboratory accident caused by chaotic management rather than intentional poisoning. Combining the history of the 1910 Northeast China plague, the joint China-Russia exercise in Fuyuan, and the transmission characteristics of pneumonic plague, the video analyzes the similarities between modern epidemic prevention and the systems of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and Russia, reminding the public to pay attention to the pneumonia mortality rate in primary-level hospitals.

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Observe things as they are, like stone; refuse fragmented cognition. Just on October 5th, Governor Kobzev of Irkutsk announced a death. Who died? A 28-year-old female laboratory worker at the local anti-plague research institute. I have checked all the versions circulating on the Chinese internet over the past two days, and frankly, they are all fucking distorted, with too much speculation. Some say that the plague has already broken out in Northeast China, others say Heilongjiang has already sealed its borders, and some even claim that the joint China-Russia exercise in Fuyuan back in August was a pre-rehearsal specifically designed to cover up the subsequent epidemic. Anyway, there are many claims. I have basically gone through all the foreign language materials and reports I could find; I treat the Chinese reports as bullshit. I know the first reaction of many people is definitely, "Ah, the CCP must be hiding something." My own initial direction was also to investigate in that direction, but this time, it really isn't the case. I directly went through the monthly data from the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, the overview of national statutory infectious diseases, and the provincial reports from the Heilongjiang CDC, and I didn't see any records of plague cases this year. But I must make it clear here: I checked public reports, so what I can say is that there are no public reports; I am absolutely not saying there are no cases. Hey, these two sentences are not the same thing. I never smear the CCP; I say what it is. Let's look at the timing again. The China-Russia cross-border infectious disease joint emergency drill in Fuyuan was held from August 24th to 27th. Then, that Russian staff member fell ill in the last week of September and died directly on October 1st. In other words, the exercise was a full five weeks earlier than the incident. I think using an August exercise to cover up an October incident is very hard to pull off because it doesn't make sense logically. Of course, some friends will definitely raise doubts, "Hey, this doesn't rule out that this was a planned release of a pathogen." Fine, let's look at Russia's official announcements. At first, Russian officials issued a notice saying the researcher died of the plague, then changed their tune to say it might be the plague, and later it became death from pneumonia of unknown origin. If this were a plan, my first reaction would be: this is fucking too stupid, right? You say three different versions in three days; even if that fucking idiot Putin were even more stupid, if such a simple manipulation of public opinion ended up like this, wouldn't he have been taken out long ago? But to be fair, when it comes to lying, Russia and China are cut from the same cloth. The Russian government has now started to learn from the CCP's rhetoric, demanding that the public only listen to official information and not believe various rumors. Do you recognize this tone? It's also learned from the fucking CCP; this is just too familiar, right? It's just replacing the CCP with Russia. Now, let's go through these seven days and see what is just talk and what are actions that have already taken place. Let's look at this timeline: on September 25th, the deceased broke a test tube containing the plague while working. This is a report from an independent Russian media outlet, but the Russian official media directly denied it. Let's continue: on September 29th, this researcher was hospitalized in Shelekhov with symptoms of severe pneumonia. Then on October 1st, which was Thursday, her death was announced that day. It took only two days from hospitalization to death. By Friday, October 2nd, things started to smell fishy. What did Russia do that day? They directly locked up more than 60 employees of the Irkutsk anti-plague research institute inside the facility. The employees' families said that people are now sleeping on floors and chairs, and the conditions are particularly harsh. This tactic is fucking familiar again. Then nearly 200 contacts were directly placed under medical observation, with over a hundred of them not under home observation but being observed in hospitals, and the entire hospital in the Shelekhov district was sealed off. Immediately following that, all public activities in the city of Irkutsk were cancelled. There is also another point: the judicial system opened a criminal case for suspected violation of safety regulations. By October 5th, what did Russian official agencies say? They said that no dangerous infectious disease pathogens were detected in the nearly 200 contacts. Fine, the seven days are over. Now, let's divide this pile of things into two: the pile on the left is talk—what is talk? No accident occurred, pneumonia of unknown origin, no dangerous pathogens detected, and that final god-tier statement: everyone should only listen to the fucking Russian government. The pile on the right is all actions, like the lockdowns, sealing the hospital, nearly 200 people entering medical observation, cancelling all public activities, plus a criminal investigation—none of these five actions were taken for pneumonia of unknown origin.

Russia loses a fair number of people to pneumonia of unknown causes every year, yet not a single case has ever led to a national-level research institution being entirely sealed off, nor has any case ever resulted in the direct cancellation of all public activities in a city. The only place in the entire world that can pull this off is the Chinese Communist Party (CCP)'s realm—that is where the CCP truly leads the world by a wide margin. Why are actions more credible than their fucking empty talk? Because actions cost money. Sealing off an institute means halting all scientific research and production of that institute; sealing off a hospital means occupying beds across the entire hospital; keeping over a hundred people under observation in hospital wards also consumes tangible medical resources. Investigating in the mountains costs money too, doesn't it? No one would pay such a massive cost just to coordinate with a piece of propaganda. Therefore, talk is cheap, but actions cost money—that is why I place these two piles side by side. Let's apply this ruler to Russia first, and shortly we'll apply it to the Fuyuan military exercises. Oh, and the exact same standard applies to the CCP as well. What is the biggest loophole in all of this? It is the criminal case filing. What did Russia's Federal Service for Surveillance on Consumer Rights Protection and Human Wellbeing publicly announce? It claimed that the research institute had suffered no pathogen handling accidents. At the same time, the Russian judicial system opened an investigation for violating safety regulations, so I have to ask: if there was no accident, what the fuck is this case actually investigating? Who are you investigating? What are you investigating? So, this is not just a difference in narrative tightness; this is literally slapping each other in the face. Moreover, the trajectory of this narrative drift is also worth looking at. First, Tsydenov, the incumbent head of a federal subject, was the first to say what? He said the researcher died of the plague, and then changed his tune to having possibly died of the plague. Then, after local officials issued warnings, Tsydenov's two posts were deleted within two hours. What remained in the end was death from pneumonia. This kind of drift has a particularly typical cause—what is this cause? It is that the local level first speaks based on professional judgment, meaning that government officials at the higher levels must have received the most truthful information, while the subsequent unified narrative arrived later, hence the fast post-deletion speed. What does this prove? It proves that the downward pressure from the top is getting stronger and stronger. Finally, Peskov came forward to demand that everyone listen only to the Russian official rumors, which is the final step in closing the narrative.

So, my assessment is that some kind of leak definitely occurred. After all, when it comes to the internal control and management of Russia's biological research institutes compared to that of the CCP's Wuhan Institute of Virology, nobody should harbor any illusions or hope; they are highly likely in the same tier of garbage systems. Speaking of this, many people might already be thinking in the direction of a massive spread being covered up. Actually, plague has a characteristic: if the human population is highly dense, its transmission efficiency is extremely high. The Black Death in Europe can serve as a reference. However, in sparsely populated areas, this thing is actually very difficult to spread on a large scale because the incubation period of pneumonic plague is extremely short, usually only one to three days, and rarely exceeding six days. Look at the deceased—they fell ill within just two days. So, if they had passed the disease to others before being hospitalized, by today, the second case would have long passed the upper limit of the incubation period and should have manifested. Moreover, if a large-scale epidemic were happening now, at the very least, there would barely be anyone left in that research institute. This conclusion doesn't rely on anyone's credibility; it is dictated by the very nature of the disease itself. A disease with an incubation period of only three days cannot be hidden. Therefore, my acceptance of those two official Russian rumors is split. Regarding the claim that no accident occurred, I basically treat it as bullshit. But regarding the judgment that there is no large-scale epidemic, my acceptance is actually not low, because it aligns with the reality observable from the outside. Now let's look back at the CCP's side. That Fuyuan exercise cannot prove there is an epidemic in China, but it can prove something else. What is it? It is that the working assumptions of both China and Russia had already placed the cross-border import of plague in a priority position back in August. Let's first look at the scale of this. Who was the one making the summary speech on-site? It was Chen Lei, the Deputy Director of the Emergency Response Department of the CCP's Bureau of Disease Control. Participating in the exercise were 19 medical emergency teams from the three provinces of Heilongjiang, Jilin, and Liaoning, involving over 300 people and more than 40 vehicles. For a drill in a border county-level city, they managed to get a departmental-level official to make the summary and mobilize emergency teams from three provinces. This configuration completely exceeds routine annual subjects. Let's look at the subjects. Among the three subjects, there was one for "plague import and joint cross-border response." In other words, the plague item was singled out as a subject for joint cross-border response, indicating that the working assumption shared by both sides was that the disease would travel from one side of the border to the other. And who came from the Russian side? The one who delivered the speech was either a foreign affairs official from the Ministry of Health or Sergey, the director of the Irkutsk Anti-Plague Research Institute. There is also a geographical detail here: Khabarovsk is right across the river from Fuyuan County, while Irkutsk is over 2,000 kilometers away from Fuyuan. The Russian side did not just send a nearby Far Eastern agency to brush it off; they mobilized the professional headquarters of the entire Siberian and Far Eastern anti-plague system. So, what is my conclusion about this exercise? It is a high-spec routine mechanism, not an anomaly. Why? Because the paradigm used here was a public display format, not an emergency response format. If they really wanted to cover up a plague, no department would write the word "plague" into the fucking headline of their press release and put it on the front page. That would be fucking retarded, wouldn't it? It's just like China holding large-scale anti-epidemic exercises in the early stages of the Wuhan pneumonia—is that how the CCP operates? The CCP's routine is that even if it happens, they fucking won't say it. Even if someone like Dr. Li Wenliang speaks out, the CCP will do everything possible to shut him up. So, in terms of this response path, it does not match the behavioral characteristics of the CCP. But there is one point that I think is the real highlight: what was the scenario of the plague subject in the exercise? It was that the source of the disease was imported from the Russian side to the Chinese side. And five weeks later, the incident actually happened on the Russian side, and it occurred in the very institution of the group leader who was sitting in the meeting room at that time. This is not some prophecy; it is because both sides are facing the same natural focus of infection, a place with a history of plague outbreaks. Let's talk about the Great Manchurian Plague of 1910, the second to last year before the fall of the Qing Dynasty. That plague killed more than 60,000 people. The starting point was not some mutation of a pathogen, but rather—actually, the reason is very absurd—it was because the Germans successfully developed the dyeing technology for marmot skins. Every step of this causal chain was an economic behavior, not a medical one. The starting point of the Great Manchurian Plague was the price. What was the situation back then? Well, around 1900, the German chemical system developed cheap fur dyeing technology, which suddenly created an international market for Siberian marmot skins. The purchase price skyrocketed from just a few kopecks per skin to one ruble, which was equivalent to rising from a few cents to one yuan—an increase of more than twenty times.

This price increase drew a large number of domestic migrants with no hunting experience to the Manzhouli area. Please note the subject here: it was the purchase price of marmot pelts that rose, and it was inexperienced outside hunters who were drawn in by the price. Next, there is the gap in experience; the local Buryat hunters have a set of rules passed down through generations for identification. For example, they would never touch a marmot that was slow-moving, wouldn't run, or was particularly easy to hit. If they saw marmots dead in groups, they would abandon their camps immediately and turn around to run. However, these migrants coming from inside the Great Wall didn't know these rules, and their logic for selection was very simple: hit whichever one is easiest to hit. But that is exactly where the problem lies: being slow-moving is precisely a sign that a marmot is already infected with the plague. Therefore, what traditional knowledge screened out were exactly the sick marmots. But the efficiency-driven logic of these migrant novices prioritized picking out these sick marmots. If you had a cut on your hand while skinning them, or if a flea bit you, you were done for. Honestly, this is also the trouble caused by the pricing system; it is a case of price signals precisely sending a group of ignorant people into a market where you can only survive if you know the rules. So, blindly following price trends is not a good idea. Isn't the current financial market just following the same set of rules? Right?

Going further down, it was lodging. The outdoor temperature in Northeast winter could fucking hit minus thirty or forty degrees, and back then it could only be colder. As for Manzhouli and Suihua, I have been there because my great-grandmother is buried in the Yichun area, which isn't far from there. Where did hunters usually live? They usually lived in semi-underground dugouts called "diwozi". Once the stove was lit, doors and windows were sealed shut, and over a dozen people squeezed into a completely unventilated space to sleep. This way of living was originally meant to withstand the freezing cold, but at the same time, people back then generally had lice on them. This turned the transmission of the disease among crowds from flea-borne into what? Directly into human-to-human transmission. Just like that, lice and fleas were no longer necessary conditions; from then on, the disease was no longer constrained by season or geography, but only by human mobility. And in Northeast China in 1910, two railway lines had just been built: one was the Chinese Eastern Railway and the other was the South Manchuria Railway. The initial outbreak appeared in Manzhouli in October of that year, and then traveled all the way along the Chinese Eastern Railway and the South Manchuria Railway—first reaching Harbin, then Changchun, followed immediately by Fengtian (today's Shenyang), and then scattered into villages and towns along the lines. How far did it spread? It spread as far as Tianjin. The factor driving this step was very specific: third-class train tickets were extremely cheap, so migrant workers could afford them. Moreover, as the Spring Festival approached, there was also a Spring Festival travel rush at that time, except people were moving from the Northeast to inside Shanhaiguan. The entire epidemic lasted four months, affecting five provinces and six cities, with a death toll exceeding 60,000 people. Laying out this entire chain, there's one thing I want to say: what modern systems truly severed in the plague chain were those two middle links—one being a large number of inexperienced hunters flooding into the epidemic source area and spending the winter in these enclosed dugouts. But the commercial drive on the price side did not disappear, and the transportation side was not weakened, but amplified by several orders of magnitude. Therefore, modern society's anti-epidemic advantage against plague lies not in severing this chain completely, but in intercepting it before it finishes running its course. Speaking of this, we must mention Wu Lien-teh, an ethnic Chinese from Penang, Malaysia, whom the Qing government sent to Harbin at the time to lead the epidemic prevention efforts. It can be said that he made extraordinary contributions to plague research. He arrived in Harbin on December 24, 1910—Christmas Eve. The very first thing he did upon arriving in Harbin was to perform an autopsy on the corpse of a Japanese victim, finding Yersinia pestis in the tissue, and determining that it was pneumonic plague. At the time, the mainstream view in international medical circles was that plague could only be transmitted through fleas. His judgment was that pneumonic plague could be directly transmitted between humans via droplets. This step determined the direction of all subsequent measures. If you get the pathogen's transmission route wrong, whatever you do afterward is completely useless. Next was the mask. The Wu mask consisted of two layers of cotton cloth with cotton in between; it was extremely cheap to make and could be mass-produced quickly. However, the French doctor Mesny did not accept the concept of droplet transmission and insisted on not wearing a mask during ward rounds. As a result, he contracted the disease and died in January 1911. The practical effect of Mesny's death was that it directly ended the debate. What were the remaining measures? Shutting down the areas along the Chinese Eastern Railway and the South Manchuria Railway, and conducting door-to-door inspections along the entire railway lines. What was severed were the visible links in the transmission chain, and the containment measures were remarkably thorough. Moreover, this was the single largest variable in the entire comparison. In 1910, there were no antibiotics at all. Wu Lien-teh didn't have even a single effective medicine in hand. The only effective method available was physical isolation. Essentially, it was fucking toughing it out—toughing it out until the transmission chain broke on its own. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP)'s dynamic zero-COVID still uses the same playbook as the late Qing dynasty. So whenever the CCP fucking brags about having some kind of "superiority," I say: didn't you already have that "superiority" back in the late Qing dynasty? Alright, getting back to the topic: look at today's streptomycin, penicillin, as well as ciprofloxacin—they are all effective against Yersinia pestis. If administered in the early stages of the disease, the fatality rate drops directly from 100% to very, very low. If there was close contact, prophylactic drugs can even be taken. What hasn't improved then? Recognizing the disease. In 1910, Wu Lien-teh relied on microscopes plus clinical judgment to identify pneumonic plague. Yet over a hundred years later, identifying it still relies on this same setup. But what's even more problematic? The baseline experience of modern doctors in this matter is much worse than back then. In Northeast China in 1910, doctors at least knew they were going through a plague outbreak. But today, a pulmonologist in a Class 3A hospital might never see a single case of pneumonic plague in their entire life because pneumonia symptoms are all similar—high fever, coughing, and difficulty breathing—so the initial diagnosis is bound to be severe pneumonia.

Irkutsk is a ready-made example this time. The deceased was admitted with symptoms of severe pneumonia. He himself was even a staff member at an anti-plague research institute—his fucking exposure history was practically written all over his face—yet this fucking idiot hospital failed to detect it. And what was the result? From hospitalization to death, it was still only two days. Moreover, if a plague breaks out in China, the first diagnosis will most likely occur in the Northeast, inside some worthless, incompetent county-level hospital. So what people really should be watching is not these fucking idiot official notices; that shit contains nothing of value at all. What should you watch? Watch whether the pneumonia mortality rate in these county hospitals or local reports shows a sudden surge. That is what everyone needs to pay attention to. Another question is, will this pneumonic plague cause a large-scale pandemic? What have the CCP media been coming out to say these past two days? They claim its transmissibility is weaker than respiratory viruses, so there won't be a pandemic. I went to ask a doctor friend of mine who works in the thoracic department at a Tier-3 Grade-A hospital in a first-tier city. He said that reasoning is blatantly wrong, because Madagascar experienced an urban plague outbreak in 2017. And what else did he say? He said the transmission efficiency of this thing can basically be equated with the transmission efficiency of Wuhan pneumonia. The real difference lies elsewhere: once infected, this disease incapacitates a person in a very short period of time. People like that won't just casually go to work or board airplanes as if nothing happened. That is the reason why this pathogen hasn't escaped the Greater Khingan Mountains and Siberia for over a hundred years. It is precisely because of the short incubation period, plus the fact that it claims lives in an extremely short time, that the transmission chain of pneumonic plague exposes itself within a week. And the tools to sever it are also readily available. That time in Madagascar, there were no fancy measures—it relied simply on contact tracing plus the maritime delivery of antibiotics, directly suppressing an outbreak that had already generated 2,500 cases within a few months.

Let's look back at this Irkutsk incident; the underlying cause is actually the current chaos in Russia's domestic management. Look, they couldn't even keep a lid on things; in three days, they managed to come up with three completely different versions of the story. If you say this was some kind of planned operation, I can only say that while three cobblers can equal a Zhuge Liang, you three Putins can't even equal one cobbler. You're all so fucking stupid that I can only say Zhao Zilong was full of courage, but does your Putin have the guts to pull off such a plan? I have no doubt about the malice of these people, but doing evil also requires intelligence. So, I don't believe for a second that this was planned. But as for being stupid, I believe that 100%. Because stupidity, sometimes, is even more fatal. In authoritarian regimes like Russia and the CCP, the biochemical research systems of such countries are in a state of high opacity. Plus, when the Wuhan pneumonia broke out back then, the CCP's desperate cover-up was, for fuck's sake, the most painful example of them lying to the whole world. So, it is only natural that the public has completely lost trust in their narrative now, because no one dares to risk their lives to believe the bullshit from this bunch of people. Facing such an authoritarian regime that operates in a black box everywhere, our approach to viewing these kinds of crises must also change. I'll put it this way: the so-called reports released by the CCP and Russia have absolutely no value in being believed. Therefore, everyone must learn more about the real situation and real information, learn to think independently and cross-reference, and don't listen to what they blather about. For rumors, just look at where they are actually spending their money, because the principle is very simple: actions speak louder than words. Given Russia's current financial situation, do you think they are under pressure to squeeze out funds for epidemic prevention? Of course they are. And furthermore, even if they were releasing a virus, what the fuck is the point of releasing it toward the Northeast now? Actually, if you organize this information, you'll know roughly what the situation is. It's just that they were stupid enough to cause an accident, and then they thought they could fucking fool everyone; the degree of drift in their narrative is comparable to Dirac's delta function. Plus, people all over the world have already been vaccinated with the strongest dose of skepticism by the CCP in 2020, so from the perspective of cognitive economy, if I hadn't checked so much data, I would definitely have shouted that it must be a virus release. So, let's return to the information. Alright, that's all for today's rant. If you like my show, please light up a cigarette for me. If you want to support me, you can join the membership channel. The membership channel has in-depth programs for every driver; welcome to join the gang of good people. See you in the next episode.