Leva: How great is the destructive power of family planning?
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Currently, based on information provided by various population experts, including official media, it is a done deal that China's population will be halved by 2070.
By 2070, those born in 1990 will basically be almost all dead.
From 1990 to the present, 500 million people were born in China. From now until 2070, during these 46 years, how many people will be born in China? That depends on the fertility rate.
Currently, the first-child fertility rate is already at 0.5. This means that by the mid-2030s, after the second-child dividend is completely exhausted and when the post-00s generation enters their peak childbearing years, China's fertility rate will hover around 0.5.
According to China's official data for 2024, about 4.2 to 4.3 million baby girls were born. These baby girls will enter their peak childbearing years in the 2050s. If the fertility rate remains at 0.5, theoretically only 2.25 million babies can be born, about half of whom will be baby girls.
In other words, starting from the 2050s or even earlier, the annual number of births in China will at most be just over 2 million, and it will gradually decrease over time. Thus, in the 40-plus years from now until 2070, China can only birth 180 million people, and this is still the most optimistic estimate.
500 million + 180 million = 680 million. This will be China's population in 2070, and the actual situation might be even less than this.
China's population halving by 2070 is bound to happen. China's official research institution, the China Population and Development Research Center, has already hinted at the possibility of China's population halving.
The most troublesome part is that during the process of population halving, China will constantly be tormented by super-aging. After China enters the aging plateau in 2035, the proportion of China's elderly population will exceed 40% of the total population for a long time, and will even reach close to 50% in the 2070s. This is similar to South Korea, as South Korean demographers have already predicted South Korea's population structure for 2070, and the speed of China's fertility rate collapse is faster than South Korea's. After all, South Korea still has immigration, and its government is still pouring money into it.
Over the next 40-plus years, China's population will plunge from its peak of "1.4 billion" to "less than 700 million." Such a large base and such a rapid speed are unprecedented in human history, and accompanied by super-aging, it is incredibly powerful and devastating. Its wash over China's economy and society will be destructive.
The reason I say this is because, over the past 30 years in China, agriculture and rural areas have been completely destroyed. During this period, enough houses, high-speed railways, subways, highways, power plants, reservoirs, and other infrastructure were built to be lived in and used by 2 billion people. To maintain economic growth, even today, the crazy overconstruction shows absolutely no signs of stopping 😱
These infrastructure projects and real estate are of very poor quality, shoddy and poorly made. Once they begin to age, they will greatly increase the social burden and severely exacerbate the destructive power of China's aging population, making matters worse.
China's post-90s and post-00s generations are truly the most tragic generation in human history 😭 Mainland Chinese who are still having children now are either crazy or big fools, completely ignoring the consequences and being totally irresponsible. Of course, not having children will only make things more miserable.
In 2013, the Chinese government bragged that 40 years of family planning had prevented 400 million births in China 😓 In fact, the Communist Party's "achievements" are much greater than what it bragged about 😎
The loss of life caused by family planning to the Chinese nation (mainly the Han ethnicity), including the population reduction of 40-50 years in the "post-family planning era" directly caused by family planning, should be between 600 million and 800 million people. Moreover, the population cliff formed by family planning has brought forward China's aging by 30-40 years.
India has no family planning, and its land area is smaller than China's, but India's agriculture not only feeds 1.4 billion people, its rice export volume is the first in the world, equal to the sum of the export volumes of the 2nd to 5th places in the world, and its wheat export volume is far greater than that of pre-war Ukraine.
The Communist Party calculated everything meticulously, only to make the biggest blunder in human history 😂
Without family planning, there would be almost no suspense about China's economic prosperity continuing into the second half of this century. If that were really the case, let alone India and the United States, other ethnic groups in the world would have no way to survive. China's human resources (human mines), if planned reasonably and developed orderly, allowing the rural population to slowly flow into cities instead of draining the pond to catch the fish (the speed of urbanization and industrialization was too fast, severely hitting the fertility rate), would be almost inexhaustible. If the smart and hardworking Chinese people put in just a little effort, people in other parts of the world would only have to beg for food. That would be the "great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation" that Chinese people dream of day and night 😎
But now... 😭😭😭😭😭
Tell me, isn't the Communist Party sent by God to save the world?