The Dilemma of China's Post-90s and Post-00s: Involution, Real Estate Crisis, and Pension Pressure

The post-90s and post-00s generations in China really don't need to work so hard; no matter how hard they try, it's a dead end.

These past couple of days, old news about "Jiangsu high school students jumping to their deaths ushering in a double weekend" has been circulating online at home and abroad...

The post-90s and post-00s generations in China are in a very tough spot.

Born between 1990 and 2010, there are 360-380 million of them, a huge number.

They have encountered the most competitive era.

Their academic workload in middle school is heavy, and they face unemployment upon university graduation... The high rate of unemployment among Chinese youth will persist for a long time, starting from 10 years.

In the future, they will face two even bigger problems.

First, when they get old, around the 2070s, the houses left to them by their parents will gradually lose their habitability.

China's housing design lifespan is only 50 years, this is public data. This means that even without cutting corners, after 50 years, they will lose their habitability, or require constant repairs to maintain it, especially for high-rise buildings. But where will the money come from? The government won't pay.

Which Chinese real estate developers don't cut corners when building houses? "The world's largest construction waste producer" is not an undeserved title.

Second, in the 2070s, when they are old, nearly half of China's population will be elderly, comparable to South Korea's elderly population ratio in 2072. However, China's population base is too large, and it is getting old before it gets rich, making it impossible to bear such a high "old-age dependency ratio." The pension and healthcare systems will have long collapsed.

In the 2070s, the post-90s generation will be in their 80s. China has had over 500 million births from 1990 to the present. Even if an average of 5 million babies are born each year from now until 2070, China's total population in 2070 will not exceed 800 million.

However, from the 2050s onwards, China needs to have more than 5 million births per year, requiring China's fertility rate to be close to or exceed 1.0. But it is highly likely that China's fertility rate will fall below 0.7 in the 2030s. With young people having no jobs and no welfare, how can they marry and have children? China's current fertility rate for one child is already 0.5. South Korea's current fertility rate is 0.75, the lowest in the world. Taiwan and Hong Kong are below 0.8. Even with Singapore's high social welfare, its fertility rate fell below 1.0 in 2024, reaching a historic low of 0.97.

In the 2070s, China's total population will be over 700 million, and the elderly population, i.e., those born between 1990 and 2010, will be 360-380 million. With such a huge elderly population, the old-age dependency ratio will be close to 100%, which is terrifying. The economy and society will surely grind to a halt.

The post-90s and post-00s generations in China really don't need to work so hard; no matter how hard they try, it's a dead end.

In human history, which country has experienced such a rapid aging of its population? Which country implemented family planning for 30 years? Which country got old before it got rich? Which country with such a large population base got old before it got rich? Which country's predecessors left behind insurmountable debts for future generations and construction waste that will take centuries to clear?

I calculated that China's "old-age dependency ratio" in 2050 will approach or even exceed 100%.

The "average life expectancy" recently released by China's National Bureau of Statistics refers to the average life expectancy of the population at age 0, meaning that those born in 2024 can expect to live an average of 79 years.

Note: Average life expectancy is not the average age of death and is only an estimate. With advancements in medicine, human lifespan will extend.

However, "healthy life expectancy" varies depending on lifestyle and physical condition. "Healthy life expectancy" is a concept proposed by the WHO (World Health Organization) in 2000, referring to "the age at which one can live independently without the need for care."

The Chinese government has always been tight-lipped about the average age of death of its citizens, possibly because some data used in compiling "life tables" is not convenient to disclose.

Here is a figure released by the UK, calculated by the UK's Office for National Statistics based on "life tables":

For those who reached age 65 in 2020-2022, how many more years can they expect to live:

Men: 18.3 years Women: 20.8 years

Generally, British men can expect to live to 83.3 years, and women to 85.8 years.

In the future, the UK may continue to raise the retirement age. If the retirement age is not raised, government pensions (promised) will go bankrupt.

However, the government will not refuse to pay pensions unless absolutely necessary. In that case, they can only reduce pension payments, such as freezing increases, or significantly raising taxes, making the working population bear the burden.

Here is also the concept of the old-age dependency ratio:

"Old-age dependency ratio" refers to the ratio of the elderly population to the working-age population within the non-working-age population, indicating how many elderly people every 100 working-age people have to support.

Currently, Japan has the highest in the world at 50%, followed by Italy at 37%. Both are developed economies.

Two years ago, Yale University scholar Yusuke Narita publicly stated that to cope with Japan's aging population, "the elderly should collectively commit suicide or seppuku." This statement caused an uproar. Narita was an assistant professor of economics at Yale University at the time. He graduated from MIT and used mathematical models to conclude that if the "old-age dependency ratio" continues to rise 📈, Japanese society will be paralyzed.

I have roughly calculated that China's old-age dependency ratio in 2050 will approach or even exceed 100%, mainly due to the population cliff formed by family planning and the sharp decline in birth rates 😓