我们最需要警惕的信号是什么？

What Is the Most Alarming Signal We Should Be Wary Of?

Translated by ChatGPT

Whether as political observers or activists, the most crucial lesson we should learn from history is not to fear ambitious elites or ignorant, violent mobs individually, but rather the fusion of these two forces: when certain elites and the masses find a place for themselves within each other's projections, forming a peculiar alliance akin to that of a father and son rather than ruler and subject. When such an alliance emerges in a democratic society, it becomes a dangerous signal worth our utmost vigilance—because the next step could very well be the slow death of democracy.

The transformation of Rome from a republic to an empire serves as a prime example. Many believe that it was Julius Caesar and his successor Augustus who ultimately dismantled the Republic. In reality, this process had begun much earlier. A striking instance is the political struggle between Sulla and Marius. After his victory, Sulla became an indefinitely appointed dictator—a position in Rome meant to address emergencies. However, his power did not merely stem from his title but also from the fervent support of the masses. Their fanatical worship of Sulla and their lawless attacks on his opponents ensured that his influence extended through the streets, making his spies and enforcers omnipresent. Under such conditions, no one in the Senate, the military, or the public sphere dared to oppose him.

As for the law? Sulla himself did not directly commit these atrocities; it was the mobs. And mobs, after all, were never known for their lawfulness—why make a fuss over their actions? If things got too extreme, if a noble’s mansion was burned or an official was killed, a few scapegoats could always be found. But by then, the chilling effect had already taken root. Although Sulla, constrained by republican tradition and his own health, later staged a symbolic retirement, he still held supreme power. No one dared to challenge him or his bloodthirsty followers. He never officially claimed the title of emperor—yet in function, how was he any different? Ironically, his defeated rival, Marius, had also attempted to take the same path but ultimately fell short in his understanding of the mob’s psychological needs compared to Sulla.

Julius Caesar and Augustus were simply the heirs to this trajectory. For them, relying on the masses as political enforcers was the most effective strategy. After all, deploying the military came with too many restrictions and excessive attention, whereas mobs could be manipulated at will.

Unlike ordinary hired thugs, the fervor of mobs is genuine, even if money is sometimes involved. This is what distinguishes and surpasses standard populism. In conventional populism, politicians pander to public opinion, and public opinion in turn controls politicians—public opinion is the father, while politicians are the sons. However, a more extreme and dangerous scenario arises when public opinion completely submits to an ambitious elite. The relationship remains that of father and son, but this time, the elite is the father, skillfully manipulating and exploiting the masses with exceptional tact and keen insight.

In a democratic society, when politicians grovel before public opinion without principles, it is dangerous but still salvageable. However, when public opinion kneels at the feet of politicians it worships like gods and even acts as their enforcers, the democracy and rule of law of that society are already teetering on the edge of a cliff.

If this is true for democratic societies, then how much more dire is the situation for a society that has never experienced democracy? In China, we can observe this phenomenon even more clearly. Whether it was Mao Zedong or Bo Xilai, whenever they mobilized the adoration and power of the masses, all freedoms and legal norms were utterly obliterated.

Those of us living in democratic countries should not assume that democracy is immortal and secure. History has already seen it perish too many times.

Athens, the Roman Republic—both were once beacons of their eras. And what became of them?

Light safeguards the people, but the people must also defend the light.