前澳大利亚总理陆克文谈习近平：他是一位敏锐的权力观察者

前澳大利亚总理陆克文深入剖析了习近平对美国的双重看法：一方面，基于其文革经历和家庭背景，他是一个对权力极其敏锐的现实主义观察者，深知并认可美国在军事、经济、科技和美元方面的强大支柱；另一方面，作为马克思列宁主义者，他又持有一种历史唯物主义观点，认为世界正经历百年未有之大变局，西方力量正在走向结构性衰落，而东升西降的历史大势正向中国倾斜。

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Underpinning his view of the United States is two things, each of which, pardon the expression, are in dialectical tension with the other. I'm an old-fashioned Australian dialectician. There's only one or two of us. The first tension is this. When he looks at the United States, he still sees the three great anchoring pillars of U.S. power. The power of the US military, the power of the US economy slash its technology, and the power of the US dollar. So when you strip away all the sentiment, Hollywood and soft power, you know, all that sort of stuff, because he's a Leninist he looks at power to survive in the Chinese political system, you look at power, is that guy going to shoot me or not.

So his training through his father, Xi Zhongxun, who remember was a military commander during the Revolutionary War and had been purged on a number of occasions by Mao Zedong, his experience of the Cultural Revolution and being on the wrong side of power, he is an acute student of power. And so the fundamental view, whether it's with President Trump or with anybody else, 就是他的意见。这是那些国家每一个是 internal debates 在一个一个天的日期，而且你有很少，他在 Washington D.C. 还有在地下，那周到国家，这是一个很谓的 democracy you have here，是他们看过去的 cloud，然后他们看 where do these three matrices of power now stand。

那是第一个，第二个是这个。因为他就是一个 Marxist-Leninist 而不是 just a Leninist，他有一个 Marxist view of history，which is about the ultimate linear march of progressive forces versus reactionary forces，progressive countries, reactionary countries。The winds of history are now blowing in China's sails as the overall what the Soviets would have called correlation of forces moves inexorably in China's direction。That is its power is rising in relative terms militarily。We can all recite the stats。It is economically from where they were decades ago where they are now as the second largest or broaching largest economy in the world depending on which measure we look at and the technology stakes i'm sure we'll get on to later in the conversation so。

But when Xi Jinping, as you know as an accomplished China analyst Ryan uses the phrase, the world is experiencing events now that we have not seen in a hundred years。That's code language for a Marxist view of history which says that this unipolar world is becoming a multipolar world, in fact the deep code language it's become bipolar world and then a china-led world, that this is happening。And when he looks through the lens of U.S. domestic politics the fragmentation here, when he looks at American preoccupation with wars and military engagements beyond the Indo-Pacific, e.g. Iraq, Afghanistan, Iran, and when he looks at even the regulatory debate here about how do you constrain the AI titans in the valley, the lens through which he sees that is that these represent elements of structural decline。

So what's the dialectic here? A deep realist view of the continuing drivers of US power, and parallel to that, a Marxist view of history which sees the US, the West, the rest in decline。Remember, though they don't use it as much anymore because they thought it was getting hubristic, Dungshengxijang, the rise of the East, the decline of the West, being in fact another leitmotif of this Marxist view of history。