疑美论错了？美国专家直言：台海若开战，美国根本不可能置身事外！

视频在美国弗吉尼亚州的独立日社区活动中采访台湾自由计划成员，讨论台湾民主自由对美国及世界的重要性。受访者认为台湾位于第一岛链和重要航运线上，是美国在亚洲的关键战略支点，并表示若中共攻台，日本、韩国、菲律宾及美国都可能被卷入战争，不能对台湾置之不理。节目还介绍了台湾自由计划及其刊登台湾议题专栏的计划。

视频链接：

完整文本：

历史上大多数人，数万年来，肯定自第一个农业社会诞生以来，大多数人生活在严格的阶级与控制之下，非常僵化的体系，被有权势者颐指气使。而台湾正是少数几个例子，一个普通人能够以自己的方式开创自己的命运。

我们正在参加一个社区，这里维吉尼亚州的活动。我和 Ian Everhart 一起参加，他是成员，也是台湾自由计划的一员。我想和 Ian 谈谈关于美国独立为什么对台湾人如此重要，对全世界的人来说，庆祝这件事的意义何在？关于台湾自由计划，Ian，谢谢你，非常感谢你同意参加我的节目。

斯坦，这是我的荣幸。谢谢。

所以我们在奥科宽的社区野餐，维吉尼亚州洛顿的区域公园，距离华盛顿特区以南大约20英里。但这里的环境非常不同，与大城市截然不同。你知道，这是一年一度的大型野餐，由当地社区共同举办。

美国的伟大之处在于，我们享有结社自由，人们可以自由聚集，并自行组成社区。所以今天是个非常特别的日子，因为正好是250年前。是的，四分之一个千年，《独立宣言》的两百五十周年，美利坚合众国的独立。这确实是个里程碑，人类文明史上的重要标志。

在人类历史的进程中，对啊，一场巨大的民主实验。以前没有人尝试过这样的事，而这个国家依然强大，是世界上最强大的。

那你觉得台湾人为什么人民应该关注美国独立纪念日吗？

这确实是关键，而我们在最近的关于台湾的出版物中强调了这一点，以及台湾为何重要。也就是台湾体现了美国精神，美国理想中的生命、自由以及追求幸福，确实到了某种程度，几乎超越全球任何国家。在某些方面，如今甚至可能比美国更好，在某些指标上，但肯定远优于它在亚洲的一些邻国。

因此，这是一个非常特别的时刻，对美国而言，同时也要向台湾人民强调，你们的政治体制有多特别，你们所达成的自由社会确实非常了不起。自由并非唾手可得，正如 Stan 的频道名称所示，而且你知道，你必须尽一切努力去维护它。

要获得自由非常困难，但一旦你获得了它，随之而来的蓬勃创造力与繁荣，以及整体人类福祉的增长，是前所未有的。而且实际上，极少数曾生活在地球上的人们得以享有。

历史上大多数人，数万年来，当然，自第一个农业社会出现以来，大多数人一直生活在严格的阶级制度和控制之下，在非常僵化的体系中，受制于有权势者的指挥。而台湾是少数几个例子之一，在这里，普通人能能够掌握自己的命运，以自己的方式在世界上前行。

是的，台湾是亚洲最贫穷的国家之一，如果不是全世界最贫穷的话。所以我知道你与台湾自由计划合作，可以请你跟大家多介绍一些关于这个计划本身吗？而且为什么你们在美国这里的人，尤其是在华盛顿特区，这里距离台湾大约有16个小时的飞行时间，就像是位在地球的另一端，你们为什么会觉得台湾如此重要？

是的，台湾自由计划，我们是一个新成立的组织，由一群核心人士创立，美国籍的台湾人，以及来自其他国家的各种移民，波兰人。

对，而且是一个非常国际化的团队。大家都齐聚一堂，因为我们都认知到台湾是多么独特，台湾到底有多重要。我们尊重台湾的民主与自由社会，我们相信台湾确实是美国面对最重要的地缘政治议题。

我们刚在《华盛顿邮报》刊登作为赞助专栏，一篇名为《为何台湾现在至关重要》，而且比以往更为关键。我们集结了约三十位不同的作者、不同的观点，来共同完成这第一系列。我们昨天才刚出版，刊登于《华盛顿邮报》。很快地，我们会将它翻译成中文，并在台湾各地发行。

而我们要强调的一点是，基于非常广泛的理由，台湾对美国而言绝对是至关重要的国家利益。很多人想到台湾，他们想到的是电脑晶片。不幸的是，许多在台湾的人想到的却是泰国这个国家。但我们正在努力，我们真的需要让民众更了解台湾确实是全球半导体晶片产业的中心。这真的是现代资讯经济的支柱，但它远不止于此。

它还具有战略地理位置，它位于距离中国海岸110英里处，它直接位于航运路线上，介于日本和韩国之间。我们在亚洲的其他盟友，如菲律宾，另一个盟友，向南延伸，穿过中国南海，再前往南亚和欧洲、中东。因此，台湾掌控著重要的生命线，对其他重要的美国盟友而言。

台湾的另一个关键点是，它是目前唯一的真正民主国家，其中几乎全体人口，其祖先大多来自中国，居住于此。它技术上仍是中华民国，而中华民国本身曾有一段时间，曾有机会转变为一个运作良好的中国民主体制。不幸的是，它遭到颠覆，被共产党人所破坏，他们千方百计阻挠其发展。

它确实有机会最终成为一个运作良好的自由共和国，直到1940年代，当共产党颠覆了它。因此，台湾是这一切文化记忆的伟大宝库，也包含了来自中国大陆的文化记忆，因为许多人，虽然并非所有人，与中国有著相当密切的渊源，因此他们延续了某些传统，以及许多原住民的传统。

台湾是一个非常充满活力的在地与本土文化。如果被征服，这一切都将受到威胁，被中国共产党。这点毋庸置疑。

中国共产党（中共）一直将美国视为他们数十年来的头号敌人。在一段短暂的时期内，时间，他们把苏联视为头号敌人，同为共产主义的专制政权，而且他们让美国我们一部分的外交政策菁英支持他们。但自冷战结束，1991年冷战结束后，他们绝对将确实从1989年天安门事件以来将近40年，他们一直认为美国是他们最大的敌人。

而且他们从事大规模的影响力活动、各种商业关系，并培养各种菁英在美国的利益。他们非常擅长运用宣传媒体来欺骗人民并建构支持其议程的叙事。他们利用了你知道的，中国是一个巨大的国家，有十四亿人口，对美国来说非常危险。

台湾就位在前线，只要台湾站在我们这边，亚洲大致上就能维持权力平衡。我们基本上可以避免一场大规模战争，我们可以维护和平。如果我们现在投资于支持台湾，这叫做威慑。

我们可以强化台湾，我们必须武装他们，以一系列外交政策工具来装备他们，不仅是军事方面。他们的社会正受到攻击，此刻正受到中共的攻击。中共正尽其所能收买政治人物，在台湾的民主体制中。他们使用大规模的骇客攻击、媒体影响操作，来欺骗台湾人民。不设限战争，正是如此。

所以我们必须投入更多来阻止这一切，并削弱其影响，协助台湾人反制这些手段。所以至少，我们必须维持台湾的现状，并以实力维持和平。这是历史的重要教训，以实力维持和平。变弱或表现出弱势，就会引来侵略，然后事态升级。软弱是挑衅。

确实如此。当普丁认为乌克兰是弱国时，他以为他可以入侵，但事实并非如此，而那成了一场多年灾难。如果我们在乌克兰维持威慑，这一切都可以避免。正是如此。

伊恩，在台湾有些人，有一群人，其中有些是知名媒体人，有些是政治人物，他们支持整个观点，认为美国是 unreliable 伙伴。这在中文里叫「疑美论」。姑且称之为「疑美论」。

他们会说：「哦，像是台湾的前总统马英九，他说美国人不会来，如果中国攻击我们，战争只会持续几天，然后台湾就得投降。」所以这是最著名的一种，当时台湾最有影响力的政治人物之一，对吧？也有一些媒体人士发表类似的言论。身为台湾自由计划的一员，您想对那些认为美国不可靠的人说些什么？

我会说，最好的共产党宣传方式就是将事实与谎言交织在一起。所以如果你找到一些有根据的东西，基于某种合理的事实，可以加以利用，然后你就可以把谎言混进去，所以那是欺骗人的最好方式。

所以确实有一些根据，在美国有一些政治人物，一些不同的游说利益团体，对中共比较友善，而且可能稍微有点软弱。我的意思是，你看过所有那些战略礼物，我们在过去四十年送给那个政权的。这完全可以预防，但我对实力有信心，以及我们许多领导人的道德勇气。

这不仅仅是关于他们是否认为这样做是对或错，这是结构上必然的结果，我们终究会防卫台湾，因为我们与日本有同盟关系，我们与南韩有同盟关系，还有菲律宾。他们都会立刻被卷入任何中共的重大军事行动，对台湾的军事行动。这会立刻牵连多个国家，我们势必会被卷入，而且没有人会愿意放弃台湾。那会是件可耻的事，而且这真的会是一连串灾难性战争的第一步。

因为大家要搞清楚，中国共产党在说谎。他们说他们爱好和平，说他们是爱好和平的国家。每个共产政权都说他们爱好和平，他们对和平的定义是他们拥有霸权，他们统治所有人，然后才会有和平。在那之前，其实是战争状态。

台湾是我们战略防御的核心，以遏制并威慑中国共产党。它是第一岛链的中心，它是一个主要基地，或将成为一个主要的深海潜艇港口基地。也就是说，台湾的东海岸直接跳入太平洋。你可以发射潜艇，直接从台湾东海岸出发，深入深海，躲避所有美国雷达系统。

因此这会立即将中共的扩张防线进一步推向更远的地方。他们的目标是将美国驱逐出亚洲，使南韩至少成为中国的附庸国，甚至可能促成其在北韩的暴政。他们也想让日本不再成为美国的盟友，并试图迫使日本落入他们的势力范围。

这非常不可行，南韩也是如此。对啊，而这些是他们的幻想。那其实只会导致更多与这些国家之间的战争。所以要防止这种情况，我们必须在台湾问题上坚守底线。

只要台湾存在，它就是一个蓬勃发展的自由民主社会，整体腐败程度非常低，公共服务非常强大，税负相对较低，非常有创造力、勤奋创新的人民。它正好是某种社会的镜像或截然相反、对立的存在，那种社会可见于所谓的中华人民共和国。

那个国家的名称本身就充满了谎言。它不是一个共和国，这个国家不属于人民。它主要由前中华帝国组成。有些人会说，连意识型态都是马克思列宁主义，它来自苏联、俄罗斯和德国。但它基本上是建立在消灭中国性与中华文化的基础上，摆脱那些旧的。因为毛泽东会这么说。

确实，虽然我会说那是真的，但实际上中共带来的是，他们结合了东西方的糟粕。马克思列宁主义是西方文明最糟糕的垃圾。卡尔·马克思是德国哲学家，列宁只是被西方各国政府推上权力位置的罪犯，作为他们一战战略的一部分。

所以这些是可怕的意识形态。苏联、欧洲、亚洲其他国家的马克思列宁主义者屠杀数千万人。他们在1922年将此灌输给中共，共产国际创立了中国共产党。

而中共带来的是，他们挖掘出了来自某些中国传统的死亡法家思想，由首位统一中国的人——秦始皇嬴政所创立。而法家思想是一种学说，自古以来的极权主义，基本上是把社会分成农民与士兵两类。我强烈推荐《商君书》，这个人曾为秦国国君效力，在他们建立帝国之前。这就是他建议的。他说，让农民的生活变得非常困难，使他们愿意为你勇敢作战，那是他们唯一能出人头地的机会。中共就是这样做的。

现在对工业社会而言，让普通人的生活变得非常困难，他们唯一能改善生活就是要奉献自己去为你工作。这包括一路往上，直到中国最高层的商业人士。最终，如果你想在中国致富并繁荣发展，无论你做什么，都必须有利于中国共产党。他们都是公仆，他们没有私营企业，而且他们随时可以把它夺走。

台湾并非如此。台湾有私人财产，这就是美国建国的根基。台湾保障私人财产，并创造了一个社会，让任何背景的人都能过上体面的生活。只要他们努力工作，就能提升自己与后代，迈向安适与繁荣。

谢谢你。这是一场非常鼓舞人心的演讲。祝你国庆日快乐。

非常感谢。国庆日快乐。我们期待与您交谈。该计划隶属于《华盛顿邮报》。And I would like to talk to Yan.

and today it's the 4th of July, the Independence Day. And we're attending a community event here in Virginia. And I'm with Ian Everhart who is a member and a part of Taiwan Freedom Project, which is affiliated with the Washington Times.

about the United States independence. Why is it so important for Taiwanese people, for people all around the world to celebrate it? And about the Taiwan Freedom Project. Ian, thank you so much for agreeing to take part in my show.

Well, Stan, it's my great honor. Thank you.

So we are at a community picnic at the Occoquan Regional Park in Lorton, Virginia, just about 20 miles south of Washington D.C., but it's a very different environment from the big city. And you know, it's a big annual picnic that the local community puts together.

This is a big thing about America, is we have free association, and people are free to come together and, you know, form communities among themselves. And so today is a very special day because it's exactly 250 years ago. Yeah, a quarter of a millennia, a semi-quincentennial of the Declaration of Independence of the United States, which was really a milestone, a landmark in human civilization, in the history of the human story. Yeah, one huge democratic experiment. Nobody tried anything like that before. And the country is doing strong, the strongest in the world.

And why do you think the Taiwanese people should pay attention to the United States Independence Day?

Well, this is really key. And we have emphasized this in our recent publications about Taiwan and why Taiwan matters, which is that Taiwan embodies the American spirit, the American ideals of life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness to really an extent, almost in surpass of any country on Earth. In some ways these days, perhaps even better than America in some metrics, but certainly much better than some of its neighbors in Asia.

And so this is such a special occasion, both for the United States and to emphasize to the Taiwanese how special the political system, the free society you have achieved really is. That freedom is not free, as Stan's channel is named. And you know, you have to do everything you can to preserve it. And it's very difficult to attain. But once you attain it, the amount of flourishing, creativity, prosperity, general human well-being that follows from that is just something so unprecedented and something that actually very few people to have ever lived on this Earth have enjoyed.

Most people throughout history, for tens of thousands of years, certainly since the creation of the first agricultural societies, have lived, most people under strict hierarchy and control, very rigid systems where they're being bossed around by people with power. And Taiwan is one of those few examples where an ordinary person is able to make their own destiny, their own way through the world.

Yeah, it's one of the poorest countries in Asia, if not in the entire world. So I know that you work with the Taiwan Freedom Project. Could you tell everyone a little bit about the project itself? And why do you guys here in the United States, especially in Washington D.C., it's like a 16-hour flight from Taiwan, it's like on the other side of the world, why do you guys think Taiwan is so important?

Yeah, so the Taiwan Freedom Project, we're a new organization founded by a core group of Americans of Taiwanese people and various immigrants from other countries. Polish guy. Yeah, and with a very international group of people that have all come together because we recognize just how unique, how important Taiwan really is. We respect Taiwan's democracy, their free society, and we believe that Taiwan is actually the most important geopolitical issue facing the United States.

We just published in the Washington Times, as a sponsored section, a publication called Why Taiwan Matters Now More Than Ever. And we brought together about 30 different authors, different voices, to put together this first series. We just published it yesterday in the Washington Times. Very soon, we will have it translated into Mandarin and distributed across Taiwan. And we make the point that for a very broad range of reasons, Taiwan is absolutely essential to the American national interest.

Many people think of Taiwan, they think of computer chips. Unfortunately, a lot of people here in Taiwan, they think of the country of Thailand. But we're trying to, we really need to better inform the public. Taiwan, yes, is the center of the world's semiconductor computer chip industry, which is really the backbone of the modern information economy. But it's so much more than that. It's geography. It sits 110 miles off the coast of China. It sits directly on the shipping lines between Japan and South Korea, our other allies in Asia, the Philippines, another ally going down to through the South China Sea and onward to South Asia, Europe, the Middle East. So Taiwan commands vital lifelines for other important American allies.

Another key thing about Taiwan is it is the only current true democracy in which an almost entirely population with most of its ancestry from China resides. It is still technically the Republic of China, which was itself for a time had prospects of turning into a functioning democracy in China. Sadly, it was subverted by the communists who thwarted it at every attempt they could. It had prospects really of eventually becoming a functioning liberal republic until the 1940s, when the communists subverted it.

And so Taiwan is a great repository of all of this cultural memory from mainland China as well, because a lot of people, although not everyone, has pretty close ancestry to China, so they continue certain traditions, as well as a lot of indigenous traditions. Taiwan is a very vibrant indigenous and domestic culture as well. This would all be threatened if it was conquered by the Chinese Communist Party.

Make no mistake about it, the Chinese Communist Party, the CCP, has viewed the United States as their number one enemy for many decades. For a brief period of time, they viewed the Soviet Union as enemy number one, a fellow communist tyranny, and they got the United States, a portion of our foreign policy elite, to support them. But since the end of the Cold War, 1991, they have absolutely viewed, really since Tiananmen Square in 1989, going on 40 years, they have understood the United States to be their greatest enemy.

And they've engaged in vast influence campaigns, all sorts of business relations, with cultivating all sorts of elite interests in the United States. They've been very masterful with the use of propaganda media to deceive people and to build narratives which support their agenda. They have used the, you know, China is a huge country, 1.4 billion people, very dangerous for the United States. Taiwan is right on the front line. So long as Taiwan is on our side, there's actually more or less a balance of power in Asia. We can essentially prevent a vast war, we can preserve peace, if we invest in supporting Taiwan now. It's called deterrence.

We can strengthen Taiwan. We have to arm them, equip them with a range of foreign policy tools, not only military. Their society is under attack right now by the CCP, which is doing what it can to buy off politicians in the democratic system of Taiwan. They're using vast hacking attacks, media influence operations, to deceive people in Taiwan. Unrestricted warfare. Exactly. So we have to invest more in stopping this, blunting it, helping the Taiwanese to counter this. So at minimum, we have to maintain the status quo in Taiwan and maintain peace through strength.

This is the key lesson of history: peace through strength. Become weak or you look like you're weak, you invite aggression and then things escalate. Weakness is provocative. It is. When Putin thought that Ukraine is a weak country, okay, he thought he could invade, but turned out not to be. And that has just been a years-long catastrophe. Had we maintained deterrence in Ukraine, this whole thing could have been avoided. Exactly.

Well, Ian, in Taiwan there are some people, there is a group of people, some of them are very prominent media people, some of them politicians, that are supporting the whole idea that the United States is an unreliable partner. It's called 疑美论 in Chinese, meaning, let's say, Ameri-skepticism. So they say that, oh, like the former president of Taiwan Ma Ying-jeou, he said that, oh, Americans will not come. And if China attacks us, it will be a war of a couple of days, and then Taiwan will have to surrender.

So that's one of the most prominent politicians in Taiwan at that time, right? There are also some media people saying similar things. As a member of the Taiwan Freedom Project, what can you say to the people who think that America is unreliable?

I would say the best form of communist propaganda is when you fuse truth and lies together. So if you find something that has some basis in something reasonable that you can use, then you can blend lies in with it. So that's the best way to deceive people.

So there is some basis. There are some politicians in the United States, some different lobbying interests that are friendlier to the CCP and probably would be a little bit weak. I mean, you've seen all these strategic gifts we've given that regime the last 40 years. It's completely preventable.

But I think I have confidence in the strength, the moral courage of a lot of our leaders. And it's not just about whether they think it's right or wrong thing to do. It's built into the structure of reality that we would end up defending Taiwan, because we have an alliance with Japan. We have an alliance with South Korea and the Philippines. They would all be immediately dragged into any major operation by the Chinese Communist Party's army against Taiwan. It would immediately embroil multiple countries. We would by default be involved.

And nobody would want to abandon Taiwan. It would be shameful, and it would really be the first step in a series of disastrous wars. Because make no mistake about it, the Chinese Communist Party lies. They say they love peace, that they're a peace loving country. Every communist regime says they love peace. Their definition of peace means they have hegemony, they rule over everyone, then there will be peace. Until that day, it's actually warfare.

Taiwan is the center of our strategic defenses to contain and deter the Chinese Communist Party. It is the center of the first island chain. It is a major base, or would become a major base for deep sea submarine ports. Which is to say, the east coast of Taiwan directly just jumps into the Pacific Ocean. You could launch submarines from the east coast of Taiwan directly into the deep sea and evade all US radar systems. So it would immediately push the next line of expansion for the CCP further beyond.

Their goal is to expel the United States from Asia, to turn South Korea into a minimum of a vassal state of China, possibly facilitate its reunification under North Korea's tyranny. They also want to turn Japan away from being an ally of the United States and try to force it into their own orbits. This is very infeasible. Same thing with South Korea. Yeah. And these are fantasies they have that would actually just lead to more warfare with these other countries.

So to prevent it, we have to just hold the line on Taiwan. And as long as Taiwan exists, it's a thriving liberal democracy, very low levels of corruption on the whole, very strong public services, relatively low taxation, very creative, innovative, hardworking people. It is the mirror image or polar opposites of the society one finds in the so-called People's Republic of China.

The name of that country itself is filled with lies. It's not a republic. The country doesn't belong to people. It mainly consists of former Chinese empires. Some people say, well, even the ideology is Marxist-Leninist, which comes from Soviet Russia, Germany, but it was founded on basically getting rid of Chinese-ness and the Chinese culture, getting rid of the olds, because Mao Zedong would have said so. Indeed.

Although I would say that is true, but really the CCP, what they bring to the table is they combine the worst of West and East. Marxism-Leninism is the worst garbage of Western civilization. Karl Marx was a German philosopher. Lenin was just a criminal that was put into power by various Western governments as part of their World War I strategies. So these are horrible ideologies. The Marxist-Leninists across the Soviet Union, Europe, other countries in Asia butchered over tens of millions of people. They implanted this into Communist China in 1922. The Comintern created the Communist Party of China.

And the CCP, what they bring is they've dredged up from the deaths of certain Chinese traditions legalism, which was founded by the first guy that unified China, Emperor Qin Shi Huang. And legalism is a doctrine of totalitarianism from ancient times, where basically you divide society between farmers and soldiers. I highly recommend the book of Lord Shang, Junshu. This guy worked for the Qin king before they founded the empire, and this is what he recommends. He says, “make life so difficult for the farmers that they will fight bravely for you. That's their only chance to advance themselves.” That's what the CCP has now for an industrial society. Make life so difficult for ordinary people, their only way to get a better life is to devote themselves to working for you. And that includes people all the way up to the highest business people in China.

At the end of the day, you want to become wealthy and prosperous in China. Whatever you do has to benefit the Chinese Communist Party. They're all public servants. They have no private enterprises. And they can take it away from you at any time.

Taiwan is not like this. Taiwan has private property. That's what America was founded on. Taiwan protects private property and it creates a society where anybody from any origin can lead a decent life. And if they work hard, they can uplift themselves and their future generations to comfort and prosperity.

Thank you. It was a very inspiring talk. And happy Fourth of July. Thank you so much. Happy Fourth of July. And we look forward to talking to you.