达赖喇嘛继任牵动地缘政治 USCC最新报告：美国应提前应对北京介入
美国之音中文网的视频讨论了达赖喇嘛的继任及其对藏高原地区地缘政治稳定可能产生的影响。报告指出，北京可能试图介入达赖喇嘛的转世过程，并借鉴了其在班禅喇嘛转世问题上的做法。报告建议美国应提前制定应对策略，以支持由藏人主导的继任进程，并与印度等民主国家合作，共同应对可能出现的危机。
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但我想，也许更直接的是，达赖喇嘛的继任和转世将对藏高原地区的稳定产生影响，正如报告指出的那样。这可能与中国国内的稳定有关，因为达赖喇嘛及其“中间道路”方法一直是西藏内部极端观点的缓和因素。
我认为是在中国的声音和印度和中国的声音，任何组织的战略，可能会关于比较的地域的地域和中国的地域的地域，between India and China。所以有很多的implications that go beyond the religious issues and spill into regional stability，或是一般的重要concerns。
在美国上的一方面，提到北京 wants to establish a One Dalai Lama framework。What do you expect China to do to influence the secession and gain international recognition？It's pretty clear。We've seen the playbook before with the Panchen Lama in the 1990s and 2000s，where the Dalai Lama directed the reincarnation process and identified the Panchen Lama but the Chinese then abducted the Panchen Lama and his family and produced a selection of their own and then promoted that individual internationally。it still reverberates today there was a very recent incident of the Chinese selected Panchen Lama trying to attend an international conference on behalf of Tibetan Buddhism，which of course was ultimately rejected by the hosts。but I think we know what they're going to do。they've been very clear about they enjoined the legal authority and purview over this election process and we saw them do it with the Panchen Lama。
and the report urges the U.S. to act before a secession crisis emerges。what would Washington do now to prepare and what would be at stake if the U.S. waits until the secession dispute begins？
If we wait, we're at the mercy of how the Tibetan governing authorities, the trust that the Dalai Lama has selected to run the reincarnation process. We're at the mercy of how well they do with their Indian hosts, with Chinese pressure, and we'd be ad hoc-ing our response if there's not proper preparation. so I think at a minimum talking about various scenarios talking about what the United States should do both in the immediate aftermath of the passing of his holiness but also in support of a Tibetan-led succession process these are things that need to be talked about in advance and thought about in advance and our interagency should be involved our congress should be involved and we should be having those discussions with like-minded democracies first and foremost India,but other countries with an interest here as well.