Real Estate Bottoming Out · Full chronicle and history

On October 15, according to a Reuters report, IMF Asia-Pacific Department Head Srinivasan stated in Bangkok that China's economic growth still mainly relies on external demand, the scale of fiscal stimulus is limited, and the real estate crisis has dragged on too long, calling on the government to boost household confidence and improve the social security system.

A homebuyer recounts that after purchasing a home in 2020, a drop in income forced them to suspend mortgage payments for 12 months, now facing court-ordered forced auction and massive losses.

In the first half of 2026, the proportion of Chinese homeowners over the age of 60 listing their properties for sale soared to 22.7%, a significant increase from 11.3% in 2022.

Instead of focusing on GDP, look at “hard power”: youth unemployment rate is 18.9%, AI continues its great leap forward. On September 21, The New York Times reported that while the unemployment rate for non‑student Chinese youth aged 16‑24 has risen to 18.9% and consumption and real estate remain sluggish, Beijing is still preparing to pour massive resources into artificial intelligence. Bloomberg previously said China is planning to invest about $295 billion over the next five years to build… #Xi Jinping

The National Bureau of Statistics released data showing that national fixed-asset investment fell 7.2% year on year from January to August, while real estate development investment fell 19.9% year on year.

On August 28, 2026, the People’s Bank of China and the National Financial Regulatory Administration jointly issued new real estate credit policy rules, officially extending the maximum term of personal housing loans from 30 years to 40 years, sparking widespread public debate.

Shanghai has introduced the “Eight Shanghai Measures,” a package of optimized real estate control policies; Hu Liren believes this is a trap to drain the savings of ordinary people and plunge them deep into mortgage debt.

From January to July 2026, China's real estate development investment fell 19.2% year-on-year, while data related to newly started projects fell 24%.

In his program on August 2, 2026, Hu Liren predicted that within one year from August 1, Chinese real estate values would fall by at least 20% to 25%, saying this is a political necessity rather than an economic law.

On August 11, 2026, the General Office of the Guangdong Provincial Government issued an inspection report disclosing that fixed-asset investment across the province fell 11.4% year-on-year in the first half of 2026, with real estate development investment down 21.6% and investment in Foshan plunging by 42.8%.

China's real estate investment fell sharply by 18% year-on-year in the first half of this year, and the real estate market continues to decline.

In the first half of the year, national real estate development investment fell 18% year-on-year, further widening from the previous -15.2%; new residential construction starts fell 23.4%, sales fell 13.6%, and funds received by real estate developers fell 10.2%.

Citing real estate agents, the video says that some homes in Shanghai have been listed for half a year without a single viewing, property transactions are difficult and prices keep being cut, with the market showing prices but no buyers.

Data shows that from January to June, China's national fixed asset investment fell 5.7% year-on-year, private investment fell 8.5%, and real estate development investment fell 18%.

According to CRIC data, from January to July 2026, the cumulative sales volume of the top 100 real estate enterprises was 1,591.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 14.6%.

On June 16, 2026, Bloomberg reported that China's new home prices fell 0.2% month-on-month in May, while the decline in existing home prices was the largest in three months, showing that pressure from the property market adjustment has yet to ease.

The program pointed out that Chinese youth face severe unemployment issues, and the real estate market continues its sluggish decline, leading to a large number of people facing bankruptcy. Many families resort to robbing Peter to pay Paul to repay mortgages, making life extremely difficult.

From January to May 2026, China's urban fixed-asset investment fell 4.1% year-on-year, with real estate development investment down 16.2% and manufacturing investment contracting.

According to data from the China Index Research Institute, in May 2026 the national average house price fell 3.6% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month, indicating the real estate market remains sluggish.

S&P’s February 2026 report said that China’s housing supply exceeds demand, and that home prices are expected to fall another 2% to 4% in 2026, with steeper declines in core cities, creating a vicious cycle.

According to online claims, based on completed-but-unsold and under-construction potential inventory, China's real estate inventory is about 93 trillion yuan, or roughly 80 million units; no public source can be found for this calculation.

Affected by the downturn in the real estate market, China's land finance revenue dropped to 4.15 trillion yuan, which has been halved compared to the peak in 2021.

Data from the National Bureau of Statistics show that in 2025, nationwide sales of newly built commercial housing totaled 8,393.7 billion yuan, down 12.6% year on year; in 2021, commercial housing sales were 18,193.0 billion yuan.

China introduced a policy to lower the mortgage down payment ratio to 15% in order to boost the property market.

On January 28, 2022, the Ministry of Finance announced that income from the transfer of state-owned land use rights in 2021 was 8.7051 trillion yuan (about 8.7 trillion yuan), an increase of 3.5% year on year, hitting a record high.

Land transfer revenue peaked at 8.7 trillion yuan in 2021, then recorded double-digit declines for four consecutive years starting in 2022, falling to 4.15 trillion yuan in 2025, a drop of about 52.3% from the peak.

In 2021, China's housing prices peaked, and land sale revenue hit a record high of 8.71 trillion yuan, followed by a significant annual decline.

The host said that several people who followed his advice returned to China in early 2019 and sold properties in Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Beijing, Hainan, Zhuhai, Chengdu, Chongqing, Shanghai and other places.

In 2016, Xi Jinping proposed that housing is for living in, not for speculation, in an attempt to push down housing prices. Local governments passively resisted due to fiscal and debt problems, and collective incidents of unpaid wages for teaching staff and public employees occurred. Xi Jinping ultimately abandoned this policy and turned to backstopping local government debt.

In 2010, the central government introduced the 'Ten National Measures' and supply restriction orders to further tighten control over housing prices, yet it still failed to reverse the trend of prices rising despite the regulations.

Ren Zhiqiang's remarks on commodity housing at a public forum were taken out of context by the media, leading to him being labeled as 'only building houses for the rich', and the nickname 'Ren Cannon' spread as a result.

In 2005, the central government issued the 'Eight Measures' to control housing prices, but due to a lack of control over local governments, the results were concerning.

On June 14, 2004, Taishan Oil transferred the 75% stake it held in Taishan Real Estate to Capital Investment (Qingdao) for 123 million yuan, and the remaining 25% stake was transferred to NC International free of charge.

In the early stage of China's real estate industry, the term of personal housing mortgage loans was stipulated to be no longer than 20 years at most.

In the 1990s, Japan's real estate and stock market bubble burst. According to Nomura Research Institute estimates, roughly $9.3 trillion in national wealth evaporated between 1990 and 2002, and the unemployment rate rose gradually after 1992.