Dallas Fed Releases Model Estimates on the Impact of a Strait of Hormuz Closure on Inflation
On April 17, 2026, the Dallas Fed released model estimates: if the closure of the Strait of Hormuz caused a 15% gap in global supply, a one-quarter closure would push headline PCE inflation 0.6 percentage points higher and core PCE 0.2 percentage points higher; a three-quarter closure would raise them by 1.1 and 0.3 percentage points, respectively.