US Stocks · Full chronicle and history

In mid‑2020, despite the easing of the pandemic and a rising stock market, the U.S. Treasury issued bonds wildly to implement massive fiscal stimulus, causing a huge inflow of market funds into Treasury bonds; viewed purely from the liquidity pipeline, the pressure index surged to 1.5, the highest in 11 years.

Liquidity pressure in late September may materialize into market volatility from late September to early October.

November, due to the superposition of refinancing bond issuance and interest rate meetings, is predicted to be the second month with the highest liquidity pressure in the second half of the year.

According to model predictions, September will be the month with the highest liquidity pressure in the second half of the year, possibly at the 79th percentile historically, mainly because multiple drawdown events are concentrated in mid-to-late September.

In mid-August, the duration supply for refinancing payments reached its peak, predicted to be the third highest liquidity pressure point in the second half of the year.

As of June 2026, the comprehensive pressure index is at a neutral position at the historical 50th percentile, but AI crowding has surged to the 94.7th percentile, nearly the highest in history.

Mid-May 2026, the liquidity stress index peaked slightly, with a peak value around 0.55 to 0.6.

Late March 2026, the liquidity stress index peaked slightly, with values around 0.55 to 0.6.

In 2023, during the surge in long-term interest rates and the Silicon Valley Bank collapse, the liquidity stress index experienced a sharp peak during an extremely high-pressure period.

During the violent rate‑hike bear market in 2022, the liquidity stress index peaked during an extremely high‑pressure period.

During the Wuhan pneumonia epidemic from February to March 2020, the liquidity stress index peaked during an extremely high‑pressure period.