Is Europe Really About to Go to War? Russia Recruits Another 300,000 Troops, but Putin Actually Can't Afford to Fight NATO at All!

This video explores the recent tension in Europe regarding a potential Russian attack, analyzing Russia's current military capabilities, the gaps in the Ukrainian battlefield, and whether a full-scale invasion of NATO is likely. The host points out that Putin lacks the capacity to launch a full-scale invasion of Europe or NATO countries, and at most, could engage in gray-zone warfare, terrorist attacks, or militia activities. At the same time, the video dissects the internal turmoil in Russia, election fraud in the Duma, the lack of support surrounding Putin, and the reality that Moscow's potential mobilization of another 300,000 troops is intended to fill manpower gaps on the Ukrainian battlefield rather than to wage war on Europe.

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Hard-hitting news, the best way to listen to the news. I am your host, Stan. Welcome, everyone. Recently, many people have been asking me, "Stan, is Europe going to war now? Is Putin, is Russia going to invade Poland?" So, today let's have a good discussion about this issue. Let me tell you first: the answer is no. Thank you all very much for watching.

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Just kidding, today's video won't end that quickly. I still believe we can explore Russia's potential operations against Europe and the recent internal changes that have made Europe more nervous. However, to keep our friends in Taiwan from worrying, I will tell you that Putin does not have the ability to fight Europe, nor does he have the ability to launch a full-scale invasion of Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia, Poland, or any other European country. But this does not mean that the Russian regime won't cause us trouble, so let's talk about it.

First of all, the internal situation in Europe has become a bit more tense, and this is not without reason. After all, there is intelligence from NATO, and defense ministers from various European countries have been discussing how Russia would attack if they did. Furthermore, whether it is the Baltic states, Poland, Germany, or other countries, they are all taking preparations for war very seriously. However, these preparations do not mean that Russia will launch a full-scale invasion. Basically, it is because before Russia invaded Ukraine, these European countries—except for Poland—were essentially slacking off on defense issues, essentially outsourcing their own national security to the United States. Trump criticized Germany in 2016 and 2017, saying that you are overly dependent on Russian natural gas, and at the same time, you want the U.S. to protect you, which is very inappropriate. You should increase your own defense budgets. And most European countries didn't listen, except for those of us who are closer to Russia, closer to the Eastern dictators; we European countries are the ones who are truly taking defense preparations seriously.

So now you see more and more news, saying that we see Russia has already fully invaded, and Trump's current attitude is also very tough. Internationally, the United States must now participate in the development of South America, and it is also investing heavily in the Middle East, such as the war with Iran. Then, we are also facing the ambition of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) for external expansion, as well as the movements in the Indo-Pacific region, which will require protecting Taiwan and Japan. Therefore, the U.S. Department of War, the U.S. Department of Defense, must deal with and participate in a great many international affairs. Europe, the EU is a very wealthy organization, and the world's wealthiest countries are all in the EU; we should be able to afford the costs related to national security and national defense, which is why we have recently started to take this matter seriously. So you see Poland preparing for war, or Lithuania preparing for war; this is something that should have been done in the first place, it's just that the intensity has increased a bit recently.

If you look at the news reports carefully, you will also find that it is not like what is said on Taiwan's Threads, or my Taiwanese Facebook feed, saying that war is coming. Most think tank reports or Western media reports will tell you that Russia will conduct gray-zone warfare against Europe, gray-zone operations. What does this gray-zone operation include? It could be its fighter jets flying to the wrong place, or its drones attacking targets they said they wouldn't attack, or there could be issues with terrorist attacks, that is, issues with terrorist attacks funded by Russia, and even the development of militia groups in some countries, which is also possible.

But why won't Putin launch a full-scale invasion? If you look at Russia's current attack on Ukraine, it cannot even fully grasp or control the eastern part of Ukraine. What if it attacks NATO? NATO has Article 5, right? If you attack Estonia, you are effectively attacking the United States, as well as Canada, as well as the United Kingdom, that is, all the countries participating in the NATO organization. Putin wouldn't dare, and he doesn't have the capability either; he doesn't even have the capability to occupy Ukraine, so he will do these gray-zone or militia group things because he hopes that Europe will be in chaos among itself. He is a regime that fears nothing but chaos. Some people tell me, but he has started to cooperate with North Korea, and North Koreans going to Russia is mainly to make up for the gaps in his Ukraine battlefield.

However, the terrorist attacks, militia groups, or missiles going off course that I just mentioned, or him using methods like poisoning, which is something he has always been doing, to kill a certain European leader or European minister, are very likely to happen. Therefore, Europe must also prepare for war, because these things will be very troublesome. He won't launch a full-scale invasion, because a full-scale invasion still carries a risk. If it's militia groups or terrorist attacks, he can also say, oh, this has nothing to do with the Russian government. For example, recently, a lot of Russian spies have been found; they have connections with Russian intelligence units, but this intelligence unit is not their central intelligence department, it seems to be a private for-profit company, but in reality, it is related to the Russian government. Then, when Russia invaded Ukraine in 2014, he also said that this had nothing to do with the Russian government, that they were all patriots, that they were fighting for what, their own freedom, and that they supported the Russian government and opposed the Ukrainian government; his narrative was like that. If you look at the relevant materials, there was a phrase at that time, which was in Russian, saying that they were not there, and this "they were not there" even became a term, meaning they were not there invading Ukraine, they were not there occupying a city, or they were not there being shot down by a plane. It sounds a bit funny, but in reality, these "they were not there" killed a lot of people. So the focus of Europe's concern and what it needs to do now is not to let these "they were not there" appear in Europe.

So what needs to be paid special attention to here might be Latvia, because Latvia has a very large Russian population, and now Russia has started paying people there to do some illegal things. Related news can also be seen by everyone, such as setting a place on fire, or painting some pro-Russian slogans on the walls, and so on. Another thing that worries people is that recently Russia has used drones to attack places in Ukraine, already very close to the Polish border in western Ukraine, and it has also attacked trains. Generally speaking, if there are foreign guests coming to Ukraine, perhaps ministers, perhaps presidents, perhaps some leaders, they will take the train from Poland to Ukraine. Now Russia has started using drones to attack these trains, which will be a huge risk.

However, this does not mean that Russia will launch a full-scale invasion of NATO or a full-scale invasion of Europe; it's not that it doesn't want to, but that it cannot do it. For a country with a population of over 100 million to fight against the EU, which has a population of 400 million, close to 500 million, that is also impossible. Coupled with this, let's look at the internal turmoil within Russia now. Those who care about the region probably know that they recently had parliamentary elections, and in those parliamentary elections, of course, Putin's party won. Just like in past years, their elections were rigged, and anyone who opposed Putin's party was not even allowed to participate in this election. Just a few days before the election, they directly said, oh, I am taking your party off the ballot and then labeling you as a terrorist. In addition, recently a hacker group hacked the Russian Kremlin, their government, meaning the conversations between Putin's spokesman and other high-ranking officials, and they were all very dissatisfied with Putin, meaning they really hated Putin and also hoped that this war would end quickly. It's most regrettable that Trump just got elected; there was originally a chance for a ceasefire, originally a chance to end the war, but Putin himself wants to keep fighting. There was also a discussion about Kazakhstan, whose president directly told Putin to stop the war. Interestingly enough, they discussed how the person communicating with the president of Kazakhstan might be someone from within Russia itself who wanted to use a foreign president to persuade Putin to stop the war. Although this couldn't be achieved, we can see a trend: no one around Putin likes him anymore, and it's just a matter of waiting for a breakthrough, when the final straw will overthrow this regime. When will this happen? No one knows; it might continue for several more years, or it might be tomorrow, but the pressure on Putin himself is always increasing, which is why he hasn't been attending various international conferences lately.

Finally, I want to talk to you about Russia's new conscription order, because this was also written about by an American think tank, based on investigations by some intelligence agencies: Putin is preparing to conscript, to draft an additional 300,000 people. Is this possible? It is not out of the question; the probability has always existed. It just depends on how crazy Putin will get, but he tends to avoid provoking Russians in big cities, because they want to live in a world where this war does not exist. Therefore, the Russian government, on the one hand, fights Ukraine, and on the other hand, keeps people from Moscow and St. Petersburg isolated, preventing them from seeing the war and making them feel that Russia is still living in a kind of peacetime. The last time there was maximum pressure on Putin's regime was the mobilization at the end of 2022, when millions of people fled directly, escaping to Kazakhstan, Georgia, Armenia, and all sorts of other countries. Will Putin dare to conscript another 300,000 people? This probability has always existed, but this is also not quite like the direct approach of the Russian government; they tend more to use financial bribes or coercive methods of persuasion, for example, saying you are in debt, or you are in prison, or you are a criminal, and persuading you, or coercing you, to sign this contract with the Ministry of Defense.

However, I want to tell the audience in Taiwan again that drafting these people is not to fight in Europe, but to make up for the shortage in Ukraine. Because the Ukrainians are really formidable, they have put immense pressure on the Russian military and prevented them from launching attacks. Besides, if you have any understanding of the Eastern European region, around October, November, or even December is no longer a good time for fighting, because the road conditions become terrible—it is all mud, and tanks cannot get through. Therefore, Putin's current situation is like riding a tiger and unable to get off. No one likes him, and the time they have not supported or liked him has been very long, ever since Prigozhin's mutiny. If you have paid attention, no Russians opposed his army; it was he himself who eventually chickened out, thinking he could still negotiate with Putin, and in the end, he was killed anyway. If another Prigozhin appears and does not stop, the current Russian government will also come to an end, and this war will surely not continue either. Coupled with international pressure, every time Trump hears Putin's name now, he directly says he wants to end the war. Even Kazakhstan, which was once treated as Russia's backyard, now dares to talk back and tell Putin to end the war quickly. Therefore, it is great for the audience in Taiwan to care about European affairs, but do not overestimate Russia. Politicians here in Europe also see the situation clearly; although we have our own problems, we do have the determination to resist foreign enemies. Coupled with the fact that the United States will always support us, allies must unite so that dictators cannot win. Thank you all very much for watching this time.

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