The 20th CCP Central Committee's Fifth Plenary Session Will Become the Battlefield for a Head-On Showdown Between Xi Jinping and Anti-Xi Forces!

In this episode, Hu Liren analyzes the tense situation in Beijing ahead of the Fifth Plenary Session of the 20th CCP Central Committee at the Jingxi Hotel. The program points out that the venue's security is guarded by three parties: the Central Guard Bureau, the Beijing Garrison, and the police (Public Security). It argues that Xi Jinping is in a state of being sidelined because he has not fully gained control over the military. With the advancement of strict party governance and large-scale arrests, senior central officials are all feeling insecure, and the Jingxi Hotel may become a battlefield for a direct confrontation between anti-Xi forces and the Xi faction, potentially even triggering a civil war.

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Hello, dear viewers! In two days, the Fifth Plenary Session of the 20th CCP Central Committee will begin at the Jingxi Hotel in Beijing. Let me analyze the situation at the venue. Generally speaking, this venue is controlled by three forces. The first is the Central Guard Bureau, because these officials are all Central Committee members and alternate members, totaling about 300 to 400 people. There are about 200 Central Committee members and over 100 alternates, so adding them up, plus some observers, the total number of people at the venue is around 300 to 400. This venue can actually accommodate over 1,000 people; the entire Jingxi Hotel has a little over 1,000 rooms. In the past, these government-style rooms were generally used as double rooms. The Jingxi Hotel has the highest status among all hotels in Beijing; it is specifically for hosting meetings of the government and the central government. Its status is very high, and it is not open to the public, which is a key feature. It is located in the west of Beijing, about a 15 to 20-minute drive away. It is roughly on the Third Ring Road. Beijing doesn't actually have a First Ring Road; the First Ring is the Imperial Palace, then it starts from the Second Ring, followed by the Third, Fourth, Fifth, and Sixth Ring Roads. I used to live between the Fifth and Sixth Ring Roads, which was quite far, in the north.

Jingxi Hotel is controlled by the Central Guard Bureau during meetings, and also by the Beijing Garrison. The Beijing Garrison belongs solely to the Army under the Central Military Commission. The security of the Central Military Commission is now guarded by the military; of course, the Central Guard Bureau is also part of the military, but it is directly under the General Office of the CCP Central Committee. Jingxi Hotel is controlled by the Central Military Commission. Although Xi Jinping is the Chairman of the Central Military Commission, he is currently being sidelined. He has to be sidelined because he is already at the point where he can arrest anyone at will. Just think, none of these people feel safe anymore, so they are bound to push back; they have united to sideline him. Where does Xi Jinping's problem lie now? His problem is that he cannot handle the military, so he keeps shouting in the internal reports, shouting about what? He wants to use this 'party rectification' campaign, which is actually exactly the same as what Mao did back then. Party rectification is, in the end, just about purging people—getting rid of everyone who has an opinion about him, including those who pose a threat to his future successors. Many of these old-timers will almost certainly all be dealt with in the future. If Xi Jinping wins this time, I think there are many he won't be able to handle, and Xi might just deal with them directly. There's no other way; there aren't even enough prisons. Although Qincheng Prison in Beijing is expanding, it's still not enough! You want to arrest so many officials; there are too many in Beijing. Qincheng is for officials at the vice-ministerial level and above, and if he keeps arresting like this, Qincheng Prison is already almost saturated and is undergoing expansion. This includes these vice-ministerial level officials—not just current ones, but also retired ones. Xi Jinping has already arrested many retired officials, so it's just not enough.

The garrison forces have a much larger troop size than the Central Security Bureau, and the entire Jingxi Hotel area is extremely large. The Security Bureau is responsible for the core, meaning inside the hotel and the conference venue itself, there are personnel from the Central Security Bureau, while the perimeter of the venue is managed by the garrison forces. What else do they coordinate with? The Beijing Municipal Public Security Bureau, meaning the Ministry of Public Security has police officers and forces providing medium-to-long-range security. This is roughly how these three forces are structured. What is the most difficult thing for Xi Jinping right now? It is the middle circle. Supposing he wants his proxies to leave, once something happens inside and he wants his proxies to leave, it is very likely that the garrison force personnel will make things difficult for him. Furthermore, once the garrison force personnel receive an order to surround these people, everyone is currently accusing each other of plotting a coup. Within the Communist Party, as long as someone says they want to eliminate and arrest those plotting a coup, the military operates such that as long as a superior orders you to attack them, you charge right ahead; you don't listen to anything else. Cross-level commanding is useless; military units generally operate strictly up and down the chain of command. For instance, if you are an officer in the Central Security Bureau, you simply cannot command the officers and soldiers of the garrison forces. Under such circumstances, Xi Jinping is terrified. The current situation is that everyone is checking and balancing each other. On the outer periphery of Beijing, there are massive anti-Xi military units stationed outside. Therefore, up until now, Xi Jinping still hasn't fully bared his fangs; he still uses anti-corruption as a pretext, and party rectification and wind-polishing as the goal, rather than openly framing it as political struggle. If it were like Mao in the past, arresting people based on political lines, then the opposing faction might strike back directly. In a couple of days, it will be Monday, around the 26th, and the meetings will reportedly last for three days in total: the 26th, 27th, and 28th. These few days of meetings are extremely important. Xi Jinping has already arrested so many people and offended all of them; it is entirely possible that some people within the garrison forces might be Zhang Youxia's people, completely possible that they are former subordinates of Zhang Youxia or have various connections to him. Therefore, Xi Jinping is also terrified right now. Once a war breaks out and things truly enter a stage of armed conflict, nobody fears anyone, and even ordinary soldiers do not fear generals. You have a gun, and I have a gun; these garrison force personnel of the Communist Party all have guns and weapons. Although they might not have heavy weapons, controlling this venue would be far too easy for them. Their troop strength and armament should be considered much more powerful than those of the Central Security Bureau, and their numbers are also much greater. These anti-Xi factions are all prepared; if you happen to make a move at that time, the opposing side might even make a move right inside the venue. Right now, no one knows—he himself doesn't even know whether these garrison force personnel and officers will directly take military action; he has no idea, and he has completely lost confidence. The people currently around Xi Jinping are very likely his enemies, because he has likely eliminated those around him, and Xi Jinping has now caused widespread panic throughout the entire CCP officialdom.

What I have learned, the situation I understand, is that all central-level officials, these senior officials in Beijing, and vice-ministerial-level officials are all extremely terrified and frightened. They don't know what will happen, and some have even written suicide notes at home. Once they are taken in, their fate—whether they live or die—is completely unknown. The Chinese Communist Party deals with many people internally; what we see is only what gets announced publicly, while many cases are never made public. People are arrested and simply taken away, and sometimes even their entire families are taken away. The Chinese Communist Party is extremely evil. Think about it, practitioners of Falun Gong, these people pose no harm to society, yet once they were locked up, some simply vanished. As for people inside the Communist Party, it goes without saying, because some hold internal state secrets and the Party has to deal with these matters. Let me give you an example: suppose that before the Falun Gong incident, back in the early or mid-1990s, if you told ordinary Chinese citizens that the Communist Party could arrest someone and simply dispose of them, many people wouldn't have believed it. Later, after the Falun Gong incident, you realized the truth. Many people, like me, had a friend whose entire family was arrested, and they completely vanished, leaving no trace. They were arrested in 1999 and simply disappeared. Inside the Communist Party, needless to say, when they want to arrest someone internally, they directly snatch away your family members—both your immediate and extended relatives. And your extended relatives wouldn't even dare to speak out. Look at the Bo Xilai family: when Bo Xilai was arrested, along with his entire family, did anyone in Bo Xilai's extended family speak out? Not a single person did. This is how things work inside the Communist Party. Once something happens to you, catastrophe strikes and you are destroyed. They make it clear to you: this family has been wiped out, you must keep quiet now, you should shut your mouth, and you are no longer allowed to speak out.

Jingxi Hotel is very likely to become an internal battlefield; it is entirely possible that everyone will be arresting each other. Of course, this meeting will not be broadcast live; there will only be news footage, no live coverage at all. It is completely different from the National People's Congress and the CPPCC. Reporters are not allowed into the venue, and public media are not allowed into the venue. Those who enter are usually within the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), because this is an internal CCP meeting. It is not open to the public, and there won't be any major press releases. It is an internal meeting, and at most, they will issue a briefing later. I estimate that this meeting will definitely be about things like 'strict party governance.' But no one knows what will happen inside the venue; everyone is currently in a precarious situation. After you go, many Central Committee members themselves don't know if they will be able to return, because the theme of this meeting is Xi Jinping's 'strict party governance,' which means he has already made it clear that he is going to make arrests. Now, everyone is like drawing lots; whoever gets picked is out of luck, especially those from other factions in the past. Look at Hu Chunhua; let's see if Hu Chunhua appears this time. If he doesn't appear, and there is no official press release, and the government doesn't issue a press release, then it is very likely that Hu Chunhua has been controlled by anti-Xi forces; if a press release is issued, then Xi Jinping may have gained control. Beijing is currently divided into two factions: one is the Xi faction, and the other is the anti-Xi faction. All the various factions from the past have now united to become an anti-Xi faction because they have a common enemy, which is Xi Jinping, as Xi Jinping poses the greatest risk to them. You can understand the situation in Beijing; for example, if I am a Central Committee member, I go to a meeting now, and I don't even know if I can come back, because the agenda of the meeting itself is 'strict party governance,' which everyone has made public. Who is there to protect them? It is very difficult for these administrative officials to be protected now. People in the military often won't attend; some Central Committee members in the military dare not attend, so they avoid it, ask for leave, and don't go. Now, these military personnel are all in their own barracks. If you want to arrest me, you have to come to my barracks to arrest me. Some have even left and stayed far away from Beijing. Xi Jinping also knows that he can't turn hostile now; if you go to a military unit to arrest someone, what happens if things escalate? Xi Jinping is also afraid now; he is afraid that someone will pierce this layer of paper. Once there is a firefight and the people in Beijing hear gunfire, then this will be a huge issue. It is very likely that such things will happen at the Jingxi Hotel, depending on who has stronger control. Everyone is competing, so the Jingxi Hotel is very likely to become a gladiatorial arena. If not here, then next year, or at some other time, the CCP will definitely have a real civil war. A real civil war, because everyone knows that as long as someone takes you away, you are finished; not only are you finished, but your whole family is finished. These CCP officials also have families; what will they do? They unite, and many administrative officials contact these military people, which has now turned into anti-Xi forces. I predict that Xi Jinping is not that easy to deal with; it is very difficult for him to arrest others now. Once the other side takes action, it will become a major event. He doesn't dare to arrest many officials now; he doesn't know if there is a large anti-Xi group or anti-Xi force behind this official protecting them; he doesn't know now. There are two days left before it boils over; it starts on the 26th, just a few days away. Alright, thank you, that's all for this topic. Thank you all for watching, and see you in the next topic!