Will Zhang Shengmin replace Xi Jinping as Chairman of the Central Military Commission?

This episode mainly discusses the possibility of Zhang Shengmin replacing Xi Jinping as the Chairman of the Central Military Commission. Host Huli Ren analyzes the power structure of the CCP's top echelon, the concept of bloodline and clan, and the current internal status of the military, pointing out that due to distant blood relations, complex undercurrents in the military, and Xi Jinping's extreme control over power, it is impossible for Zhang Shengmin to replace Xi Jinping. In addition, the program also reveals the inside story of Defense Minister Dong Jun's sudden disappearance, as well as Xi Jinping's recent whereabouts and panic.

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Yesterday there was a photo and a video, which should be from Xinhua News Agency, showing Zhang Shengmin meeting with the propaganda team of the 20th Central Committee's Fifth Plenary Session at the August 1 Building. This whole setup is actually just like Mao's Supreme Instructions from the past. Have you all noticed now that every single word spoken by Xi Jinping is already being codified into writing? Back then, it was called Supreme Instructions, just like with Mao—once the Supreme Instructions arrived, the whole country spoke according to those words. Now, what Xi Jinping is doing is exactly the same as what Mao did back then; he just didn't write down the four characters "Supreme Instructions," but the effect achieved is identical, giving the exact same feeling: treating Xi Jinping's spoken words like those of an ancient emperor, like an imperial edict. Now, this is part of the CCP's policy of keeping the people ignorant. Given where Xi Jinping has reached today, he is bound to adopt this kind of approach.

So yesterday, many media outlets today are talking about a certain matter. Have you all noticed that there is a photo of Zhang Shengmin? There is a photo of Zhang Shengmin meeting with the central propaganda team. This photo has also appeared in many CCTV news broadcasts. Look at this photo, it's just like Xi Jinping, like giving a lecture or reprimand. Look, Zhang Shengmin is sitting alone in the middle, with everyone else cleared away and separated, and then there are several rows, looking just like this lecturing-style setup. And then he is displaying his absolute authority; Zhang Shengmin's personal image is portrayed this way, with absolute authority.

So, many people have started to guess, saying that with Zhang Shengmin sitting in such a position as the Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission, it gives people the feeling that he is going to replace Xi Jinping. And many independent media outlets have started saying that Zhang Shengmin might replace Xi Jinping, replacing him in the next term, with Zhang Shengmin taking charge of the comprehensive work of the Central Military Commission, and after Xi Jinping steps down to the second line, the position of the Chairman of the Central Military Commission will be taken by Zhang Shengmin. Now let me analyze whether such a possibility exists. I can tell you all that this possibility is completely non-existent, because what is Xi Jinping doing right now? He must secure a position for a Xi family dynasty. Although Zhang Shengmin is his cousin, their bloodlines are different; they are not of the same clan. Chinese people care a great deal about this. They are cousins on the maternal or collateral side, which makes them outer relatives with a different surname. Under these circumstances, Xi Jinping will definitely never feel at ease with Zhang Shengmin. If he were to hand over the position of the Central Military Commission to him, it would be equivalent to Xi Jinping giving up all power, making titles like Party Chairman completely empty. Look at the past, Hu Yaobang used to be Party Chairman, right? Look at what Hu Yaobang's ultimate fate was. Let me tell you, within the Communist Party, what kind of group is the Communist Party? It is actually just a group of bandits. Mao said before that political power grows out of the barrel of a gun, meaning whoever has arms and controls the armed forces wins victory and power throughout the entire party. Under these circumstances, if Xi Jinping hands power to Zhang Shengmin, would the country still have the surname Xi or not? The country would have the surname Zhang, and then one day Xi Jinping would be wiped out.

Therefore, every Chinese person has an emperor living in their mind and heart. And once you reach the top level—for instance, if you have attained a national-level or deputy-national-level rank and have the ability to sprint for the top position—everyone is putting in all their effort. Because within the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), if you are the boss, you are relatively safer. But when you become the second or third in command, it is very likely that you could be taken out by illness or purged at any moment. It is just like Liu Shaoqi; you see, that is how it was. Liu Shaoqi was the second in command at the time. It is the same within the CCP; if you look at the history of the CCP, Liu Shaoqi is just one example. Look at the history of the CCP, it has always been like this: everyone inside is plotting against each other. It was the same during the Yan'an period; how many people died then? The Zunyi Conference was the same, right? The CCP has always been fighting internally; everyone wants to be the emperor, everyone wants to be the boss. Once you become the boss, you are relatively safer. So, people outside are saying, take Xi Jinping for example, you see Zhang Shengmin is his cousin, so he trusts him slightly more than others, but this is definitely an outsider, definitely just a connection. If you say Zhang Shengmin were his own brother, it would be completely different, it would be completely different; they would be the Xi family. The CCP is all about this. Therefore, for Zhang Shengmin to replace Xi Jinping as Chairman of the Central Military Commission, Xi Jinping would not agree, and the anti-Xi forces would not agree either, because the anti-Xi forces have always viewed Zhang Shengmin as a part of Xi Jinping. Everything Zhang Shengmin is doing now is doing things with Xi; you are just a part of Xi. The people Zhang Shengmin is arresting now, he is the Chairman, Director, and top leader of the Discipline Inspection Commission of the Central Military Commission. Zhang Shengmin is now in the military, he is like the head of the Gestapo; the people in the military are all arrested by him, he is the one executing it, so he has already offended many, many people. Therefore, this person Zhang Shengmin, he cannot possibly become a replacement for Xi Jinping's position as Chairman of the Central Military Commission. If the position of Chairman of the Central Military Commission were given to him, it would be equivalent to handing the State Presidency and the Party Chairmanship to him, because the troops would all be controlled by him. Of course, I am speaking ideally, but the current situation is not like that. The current situation is that in the major theater commands, and the military sub-districts under the major theater commands, Xi Jinping has no idea what their bottom line is. Many people are still outwardly supporting Xi, saying 'let me study Xi's spirit,' and 'I am also studying Xi's spirit and Xi's thought.' But everyone knows, everyone is holding their breath, waiting for a specific time to find a way to drive Xi Jinping out of power, because they understand very clearly that if Xi Jinping is not driven out of power, if he is not removed, their own safety cannot be guaranteed.

And the facts are just like that now. Look at Xi Jinping now, purging these people in the military. I talked about Dong Jun's matter a couple of days ago; look at Dong Jun's matter, on the Ministry of National Defense's website, news about Dong Jun in 2026 is very scarce. Since September 17, Dong Jun has completely vanished from the face of the earth. Even meetings with the Russian Foreign Minister and the Russian Defense Minister are being hosted and attended by Zhang Shengmin; Dong Jun is nowhere to be seen. Even with this recent lecture group matter, Dong Jun did not appear. Logically speaking, if you are Zhang Shengmin, you should at least have someone accompanying you, right? Now there is not even an escort. Zhang Shengmin, I just showed everyone the photos yesterday, and you know. Now the entire Central Military Commission is completely hollowed out; there are two people at the top, first is Xi Jinping, below him is Zhang Shengmin, and everything else below is vacant. These so-called generals, lieutenant generals, and major generals are almost all just for show. Therefore, the current power structure of the CCP is already very much in line with the characteristics of the Xi dynasty, which is to say: one person above, ten thousand people as slaves.

Therefore, the CCP Central Committee has now become completely hollowed out like this, with everyone having been arrested. Although some people still exist—currently there are still a few generals—these generals no longer make public appearances. In other words, these generals actually no longer hold any real power, and Xi Jinping also does not want them to appear in public. Because once you appear in public, you know how the Communist Party works: as long as you frequently appear in public, you are actually demonstrating your power. Within the Communist Party, when the Party films news reports, it is extremely meticulous. For example, if I need to shoot one hundred cuts today, I might shoot fifty cuts of the top leaders. How do I distribute the rest among those below? For instance, second-tier military officers and second-tier personnel might get ten or twenty cuts each, meaning a certain row of people might get ten or twenty cuts, and further down they get fewer, and even further down they get even fewer. They are very particular about this. Every time you appear in public, you are actually demonstrating your power. In other words, it continuously projects your power. To the people below, the greater they feel your power is, the stronger your command capability in the future might be, and the more likely the people below will be to follow you. So now you see, Dong Jun has not shown up at all. Taken away from his home by people over a month ago, he has been completely unheard of until now. This scoop was reported by me; he is completely unheard of, and there has been no official announcement yet about what is going on, likely because Peng Liyuan is suppressing it. She feels from the bottom of her heart that she wants to protect Dong Jun, because Dong Jun was pulled up by her. Many people think Miao Hua pulled Dong Jun up. Look at how long ago Miao Hua got into trouble, yet Dong Jun kept appearing afterward. Even on such an important occasion, when meeting with U.S. President Trump, look at who sat in that row—Zhang Shengmin did not appear, but Dong Jun appeared at that time. Now you see, Dong Jun has suddenly vanished.

So under these circumstances, look at the entire country now: where is Zhang Shengmin? In the Central Military Commission, he can occupy a position that replaces Xi Jinping's, but within the scope of the entire country, he completely lacks this ability, nor is it possible. Xi Jinping will never let him become the so-called Chairman of the Military Commission, because once power over the Military Commission is handed over, Xi Jinping's life will hang by a thread. Therefore, everyone should not pin their hopes on this. Xi Jinping's situation is either that he is taken down, or he serves as Chairman of the Military Commission all the way to the end, until death. This is the current situation of the Central Military Commission. Xi Jinping is currently in a state of extreme panic. As time goes on, the probability of something happening to Xi Jinping is getting higher and higher. As I have said, last October, November, on November 1st, Xi Jinping once appeared in Guangzhou. He went to Guangdong and visited someone. Later he appeared in Guangzhou, and then he flew back to Beijing. After arriving in Beijing, and until he actually went abroad—to North Korea, ASEAN, Egypt... well, not ASEAN, he went to East Asia—then throughout China, which places has he been to? Shandong Dezhou, which is within a three-hundred-kilometer radius, an area within a three-hundred-kilometer radius of Beijing. And also Inner Mongolia, there is some place called Chaha... some place called Bucha in Inner Mongolia, he went to this place which is also within a three-hundred-kilometer radius of Beijing, an area within a three-hundred-kilometer radius. These areas are probably the ones Xi Jinping can control. And he acted like a thief; going to Shandong Dezhou was also done like a thief, suddenly rushing over. Going to Inner Mongolia was the same, suddenly rushing over, giving people the feeling that "I have already left Beijing," because everyone is armed, and many military people are guessing that he cannot leave Beijing. So he does whatever he can: "I have been to Shandong once," "I have been to Inner Mongolia once." It is very difficult for him to go anywhere else. This time going to Shenzhen—of course Shenzhen is different; the control capability of this city, the control capability of a major city, is relatively strong. For example, if he goes to places like Shanghai and Shenzhen, that is not feasible. Suppose Xi Jinping goes to some relatively marginal and remote places, then the possibility of him being attacked is very high. Xi Jinping himself does not know; right now, he does not know. He doesn't know which day, or which military unit will suddenly turn against him. In fact, there are many military units that have already turned against him. In other words, he himself also knows that he has been hollowed out. This time, the Central Reporting Group, the Central Reporting Group of the Fifth Plenary Session—I guess when they go to other barracks, they will also have to look at other people's expressions, and many of them probably won't be able to promote things so smoothly. Because everyone is also doing propaganda; if you come to my barracks to do propaganda, it's equivalent to coming to oppose my propaganda. Therefore, it won't go that smoothly for Xi Jinping.

Therefore, I think Zhang Shengmin, Xi Jinping for a period of time had always hoped, always hoped that his younger brother could hold a position in the military, and then push his younger brother up. But this was too obvious within the military. So, last year, his younger brother Xi Yuanping and Peng Liyuan had an office in the August First Building, which was to help him do things. At that time, Zhang Shengmin had also just moved up. Zhang Shengmin, that was exactly the period before Zhang Youxia was arrested. I once said that something was going to happen to the Central Military Commission, and that Zhang Shengmin was going to be arrested. Do you all remember? I did an episode on September 1st, and I knew it, because at that time I had news from Beijing that Zhang Shengmin might be in trouble. Before the incident, these high-ranking officials in the Beijing August First Building, the ones who were being demoted, they knew it was very dangerous at the time, that is, under the circumstances where the relationship between Xi Jinping and Zhang Youxia was quite tense, they sent this news out. He said that at the time, Xi Jinping would send another person to enter the Central Military Commission first, by appointing him to the position of Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission. The first step was to send someone into the position of Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission, and at that time some people speculated, that is, people inside speculated that it was Zhang Shengmin, because they knew that the relationship between Zhang Shengmin and Xi Jinping was that of cousins. So Zhang Shengmin went in at that time, and then more than two months later, Zhang Youxia was suddenly arrested, and Liu Zhenmin was also arrested. Xi Jinping's methods are very ruthless. Look, he has many methods now. Look, when he eventually falls, the methods used against him by the anti-Xi faction will be the same, and they will not leave him a way to survive. This person, Xi Jinping, will not be left a way to survive. As for how he will step down, there may be many possibilities, but this person almost has no way to survive. Once Xi Jinping steps down, he won't even have the qualification to enter Qincheng Prison. Zhang Shengmin still has the qualification; people like Zhang Shengmin still have the qualification, but Xi Jinping may no longer have it, and in the end, he will be dealt with by the anti-Xi faction using various methods. It is like this within the Communist Party; everyone, the higher the level of the person, they have to find ways to...