Did Ren Zhengfei's entire family flee? Rumors flood Douyin for the fourth day, negative sentiment surges, yet Huawei's legal team remains silent! Yao Anna hasn't posted a single free update, the Brooklyn lawsuit keeps them locked in the country, fleeing can be ruled out! Political pressure races against pure rumors, the truth will be revealed at the September 17th Huawei Connect conference.

This article discusses recent rumors regarding the flight of Ren Zhengfei's family. By analyzing the abnormal silence from Huawei and official authorities, the propagation chain on social media platforms, reactions from overseas media, and the context of related lawsuits, the blogger concludes that the flight rumors fall apart on their own. It is far more likely that Huawei and its family have faced certain political controls or political pressure, and the ultimate truth awaits further observation.

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Observing things as they are, refusing casual cognition. Actually, this news about Ren Zhengfei's family fleeing has been out for a long time. The earliest, it seems, was on September 13, when X was already full of it. Back then, I just regarded it as a very simple rumor. And originally, it wasn't even a Simplified Chinese post; it was posted by a Traditional Chinese account, saying what? Saying that Ren Zhengfei and Meng Wanzhou's family had fled China, and the news was still being verified. Then there was an image saying what? Saying that outside Huawei's headquarters, there was a group of armed police, and the whole of Huawei was surrounded. At the time when I looked at that picture, you couldn't tell where those armed police were standing; it looked more like an old picture matched with a news case. Anyway, this kind of thing, whether on X or TK, this play is not rare, right? But saying this, three days have already passed, and Taiwan's Liberty Times, Malaysia's Oriental Daily, and Taiwan's China Times have all republished it. By the time I recorded this episode, this thing had already poured into Douyin, and text posts like "Ren Zhengfei has fled" were everywhere, but until now, Huawei, a sensitive machine full of negative news, hasn't said a single word. That is the most abnormal part. And then what's even more abnormal is that the official organs of the Chinese Communist Party haven't said a single word either. Everyone knows what kind of entity Huawei is; it's notorious as a sensitive machine for negative news. This time, their legal team and public relations didn't even step in, causing many people to come to my comment section to ask, "Hey, is 'far ahead' really fleeing?" Actually, recently, everyone has grown quite blasé about big figures fleeing. Previously it was at the Ctrip level, and now it has directly reached the "far ahead" level—you could say progress is rapid. So today, what are we looking at? How should we read a rumor about a big figure losing contact? Let's lay out the rumor itself first. The rumor is pieced together from three pieces of material. One is a screenshot of what is claimed to be an internal Huawei conversation, saying that Huawei Chairman Liang Hua couldn't get in touch with Ren Zhengfei for two consecutive days, and then going on to say who? Saying Meng Wanzhou couldn't be reached either, Yao Anna couldn't be reached, and even his wife Yao Suwen and a family of over ten people couldn't be reached at the same time. I don't think fleeing works like that; even with a whole gang running away, I don't think you can run that way. Moreover, this screenshot doesn't have a timestamp, and you can't tell who posted it. Then another piece is a video claiming to be surveillance footage, saying what? Saying that at 1 a.m. on September 11, a minivan drove directly out of Ren Zhengfei's residence, heading where? Heading to Luzui in the Dapeng Peninsula, and then saying Ren Zhengfei was nowhere to be found. And another version said what? Said it was 11 p.m. on September 11—anyway, these two versions are running side by side. There's also another piece which is a video claiming a large number of armed police surrounded Huawei's headquarters in Shenzhen. But among these three pieces of stuff, has everyone noticed a common point? Not a single piece can be pinpointed to a specific time, place, and uploader. And that place Luzui, I also checked it; it's all the way at the southeastern tip of the Dapeng Peninsula. Setting out to sea from there, wouldn't a small boat approaching be right in the Hong Kong waters across Dapeng Bay? Isn't that still within the entry-exit control system of the Chinese Communist Party? If you want to go to a place where the CCP has no jurisdiction, you need long-range vessels and ports, right? Ordinary yachts simply can't handle it; a minivan setting off at dawn and a small yacht cannot solve this problem, let alone dozens of people leaving at once. So this one, basically everyone doesn't need to think about it; I don't believe the fleeing part at all.

Let's talk about a few things people took for granted on the spot; actually, they don't make sense either. First, there's the rumor about the timing of Xi Jinping's visit to India. What does the rumor say? Listen carefully, those who are sharp-eyed. The rumor claims this happened during the window of Xi Jinping's visit to India. How long was this idiot's visit? He arrived in New Delhi for the G20 summit at noon on September 12 and returned to Beijing on the evening of September 13. The rumor claims the minivan incident happened in the early hours of September 11. In other words, according to the rumor, the time the Ren Zhengfei family 'ran away' was before this idiot Xi Jinping even left. Then, the point when this rumor spread on a large scale was the morning of September 13, when Xi Jinping was still in New Delhi. Therefore, this doesn't constitute any so-called internal political control or a narrative of Xi Jinping's political rivals attacking and retaliating against Huawei. There is also a lot of grafting; where is it grafted? It's said to be because the new CCP entry and exit regulations took effect on September 15. Since they ran away that night, that makes even less sense. This bunch at Huawei are 'Zhao' family members by nature. For a public ban, they ran away? Let's not even talk about whether this ban exists; even if it didn't, there must be all kinds of eyes and ears, all kinds of so-called security forces around their family. Whether you call it surveillance or protection, there is definitely no shortage of such CCP people around them. So, why do the rumors bundle these two things together to sell them? Isn't it just to create a sense of urgency about assets and bodies fleeing simultaneously? But this makes absolutely no sense. There is another data-related reason that is even more ridiculous. Isn't the U.S. currently restarting criminal proceedings against Huawei? They say Meng Wanzhou is still facing criminal charges. If that's the case, wouldn't running away be walking right into a trap? However, we need to single this point out; the relationship between this lawsuit and the rumors is much greater than the visit. At the very least, I think this point is more reliable than the previous one. On September 8, the U.S. District Court for the Eastern District of New York began jury selection. The presiding judge is Ann Donnelly. The prosecutor's opening statement started with what? It was about Huawei's 20-year history of theft, lying, and cover-ups, with 12 charges. There are three main threads; let me go through them one by one. The first lawsuit is about Huawei using a Hong Kong company, Skycom, to do business in Iran and then deceiving U.S. and European banks. The second is stealing trade secrets from companies like T-Mobile and Cisco. Finally, there is obstruction of justice. I've seen what professional American lawyers say: this case will take at least three months to try, and the verdict won't be out until December at the earliest. But that's all for later. The most critical point is: the defendant claims they have no personal charges. The personal charges against Meng Wanzhou were subject to a deferred prosecution agreement signed in September 2020. What is this agreement for? It's an agreement between the prosecution and the defendant not to prosecute for a period of time. On December 2, 2020, the court officially dismissed it. She is currently not a defendant and there is no arrest warrant. So, what is the relationship between this lawsuit and the rumors? I think the relationship is at both ends. One end is that once Huawei is convicted as a criminal organization, personal charges can be added at any time. The temporary arrest warrant was used to catch Meng Wanzhou in Vancouver in 2018, right? So here is the thing: from that day on, Huawei will not take a single step toward any place that has an extradition treaty with the United States. Unless Ren Zhengfei has lost his mind, or has suddenly decided to become a cooperating witness, to be honest, I don't even know where this guy would run to, you know? So, everyone, just think about this lawsuit; it's not a reason for them to run, it's a reason why they can't go anywhere.

Where is the other end? It is in the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). When was the last time Huawei was used as a bargaining chip? It was in September 2021, on the day Meng Wanzhou took off from Vancouver, when the two detained Canadians took off in the opposite direction. In fact, ever since then, the CCP has treated Huawei as a chip. Now, the Huawei case has already begun its trial starting September 8, which was last week. Then on September 24, Trump and Xi are scheduled to meet on September 24. Furthermore, around November 10, the U.S. Department of Commerce's 50% affiliate rule is set to automatically resume, followed closely by the Huawei verdict in December. With these dates lined up, the last thing the CCP wants is for Huawei to create any new topics in these two months. Whoever started the rumor probably knew about this—whether it was Reuters or someone else, I forgot—and bundled the trial and the missing person into a single headline, forcibly attaching a seemingly plausible motive to this so-called "running away." But even so, how the hell could anyone run away now? Therefore, their narrative is utterly absurd and genuinely somewhat bizarre. Running away in China doesn't look like that anyway. Now let's look at what the disappearance of a major figure in China's corporate world actually looks like. Who is the most representative example? The most representative is undoubtedly Jack Ma. Back in October 2020, after Jack Ma gave that speech on the Bund—didn't he say at the time that banks were run like pawnshops?—he failed to show up even for the recording of the Africa Business Heroes finals in November. Only then did the rumors of his disappearance begin, and on January 20, 2021, his appearance in a video finally confirmed that Jack Ma had faced political disposal. This kind of thing happens not only in the business world, but in politics as well. In 2023, Qin Gang made his last appearance on June 25, missed the ASEAN Foreign Ministers' Meeting in July that he was supposed to attend, and was then officially announced as removed on July 25. Another relatively representative figure in 2023 was Li Shangfu, who made his last appearance on August 29, 2023, then missed the border defense exchange meeting with Vietnam in September that he was supposed to attend, and was officially announced as dismissed on October 24. So if you evaluate the framework of these cases, every single one of them started with the absence from a scheduled, mandatory event, and only then did rumors follow to explain that absence.

However, Ren Zhengfei's case is extremely strange. This time, he is very special because the screenshot came first, and the absence was searched for afterward. To this day, not a single occasion has been found where he was supposed to appear but didn't, because Ren Zhengfei had no scheduled events to begin with—needless to say, I looked and couldn't find any. At this point, tracking his family's whereabouts is a secondary priority; the primary goal is still to find him personally. If clues could be found in his own public appearances, there would be no need to search for people like Meng Wanzhou. So, I reviewed Ren Zhengfei's public appearances in 2026. On January 5 of this year, who did Ren Zhengfei meet? He met Xiang Yongchu from Nezha Auto. On January 8, he met Jia Jianxu from SAIC. On the evening of May 8, listening to a lecture, he went to the Shanghai Qingpu chip center, where Ren Zhengfei officially received guests. Who did he meet on August 24? He met GAC Chairman Feng Xingya, when Feng Xingya went to visit him. August 25 was Ren Zhengfei's last recorded public appearance. From the last confirmed appearance to the outbreak of the rumor, it was only about twenty days. Looking at all his appearances, we can see a pattern: either others were visiting him, or it was an official scheduled event. He doesn't use social media himself. Twenty days without a public appearance, at his age, is not really a major anomaly. But what is the biggest anomaly? Huawei, which is extremely sensitive to negative news, has suddenly become insensitive amidst such huge negative publicity. That is the most abnormal part. Look at how sensitive Huawei usually is: when Wenjie had an accident resulting in fatalities, Harmony Intelligent Mobility issued a statement within two days, and then they sent out lawyer letters everywhere to stop the entire internet from talking about it. Then there is the Zhuzhidao incident, where Huawei's legal team started batch-complaining at the end of July. A company that jumps at the slightest touch has let rumors flood Douyin this time. You must know that Huawei's legal complaint channel is most effective on Douyin. Yet by the time I recorded this episode, I only saw one video marked as forbidden to play, while the posts were still there. That's what's interesting: such huge negative publicity, with mainstream media and domestic and overseas self-media frantically reposting it, yet Huawei hasn't made a single peep. Even if you just had Meng Wanzhou or Annabel Yao walk around for a bit, there's nothing. Even for a minor issue like the Zhuzhidao incident, it was only a week between its outbreak at the end of July and the ban issued by Harmony Intelligent Mobility on August 4. But this time, with such massive negative publicity, counting from the morning of September 13, a full 4 days have already passed. If you add the rumor of running away on the 11th, it has been almost 5 days. At this rate, Huawei's side should at the very least have an official statement by Friday. Otherwise, what—is your whole family of Ren Zhengfei worth less than a few cents' worth of Zhuzhidao products?

Then, the reaction from the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is also very abnormal. The post about Ren Zhengfei fleeing appeared on platforms like Douyin, Xiaohongshu, and GP on September 14, yet the Cyberspace Administration of China did not come out to spin the narrative, the platforms did not suppress this negative news, no official debunking was issued, and the algorithms were even pushing related searches. Isn't that abnormal enough? Think about it, what kind of entertainment activities was the CCP engaged in a couple of months ago? Didn't the CCP launch a so-called 'Clean and Bright' campaign in May? And what was that May 'Clean and Bright' campaign specifically targeting? It was exactly this kind of so-called 'malicious hype of enterprise-related information,' wasn't it? Only a few days have passed, and now no one cares. But let me come back to this: I still don't believe this person has fled; it is more likely that he is under some form of political control. Since he is under political control, let's consolidate all these overseas claims. There are actually three versions circulating in the market: one is that the whole family fled, which is the rumored version; another is that he is under certain political pressure or has been subjected to a degree of political reckoning. Within this narrative, there are two possibilities: first, that the CCP's internal infighting has reached Huawei; second, that Xi Jinping himself is dissatisfied with certain practices of Huawei. In form, this could be an investigation, a warning, or takeover negotiations; the common point is that the CCP is putting pressure on this family, so I will group these into one. The last one is that nothing happened at all, and it's just those people overseas talking nonsense and spreading rumors, and that Huawei and the old man's family are simply under no pressure. Well, let's look at the current evidence and see which one is better supported. Regarding the plausibility of these three, I won't give numbers, but I will rank them. The 'whole family fled' version is definitely the lowest, because the sea route via the mouth of the deer is not viable. Furthermore, even if this family fled by boat, if the CCP wanted to pursue them, there is no such thing as not being able to catch them. If they were fleeing, there is no way they could bypass the constraints involved. Relatively speaking, I think the plausibility of political pressure is the highest. Look, 47 centrally managed cadres have been investigated so far. I wouldn't be surprised to see how far the CCP's internal struggle has reached today. As for the 'pure rumor' theory, I think it is somewhere in the middle, because recently, what people inside the Great Firewall are paying attention to is the news of people fleeing, and there are quite a few related rumors. A recent example is the Liang Jianzhang incident last month—everyone remembers the Ctrip incident, right? Liang Jianzhang was also linked to the new entry and exit regulations on September 15. It's just that twenty-some days have passed, and they've changed the protagonist. From this perspective, the themes are all ready-made; just change the person to someone with a bigger profile, and isn't that it okay?

Well then, now let's look at the evidence. The most weighty evidence is those expected actions mentioned above that should have appeared but didn't. Now let's ask one by one who they are supporting. Look, four days have already passed, and Huawei's legal department hasn't even deleted posts on Douyin. If it were a pure rumor, Huawei would have no reason not to use the gagging tactic. Therefore, the absence of this part is unfavorable to the pure rumor theory, but what is it favorable to? It provides favorable evidence for political pressure. Another politician's tool even cheaper than Meng Wanzhou is Annabel Yao. Look, on the 11th of last month, she was just officially announced by Youku as joining the cast of *Burning Shadows* and is currently in a promotional period. You could say posting an update is part of her job, right? The cost is basically zero. By today, the fourth day, even she hasn't posted any news. Under the hypothesis of a pure rumor, she has no reason not to post. If even Annabel Yao, who is in the entertainment industry, doesn't post, the easiest explanation is what? That someone made their whole family shut up. This is also unfavorable to the pure rumor theory and most favorable to political pressure, though it doesn't conflict with the fleeing theory either. Then at the level of the Chinese Communist Party, this behavior is also extremely abnormal. In the past two years, the thing these foolish media outlets of the Chinese Communist Party have done the most is what? It's debunking rumors. Just last week, on September 10, those foolish media outlets of the Chinese Communist Party were still debunking rumors, saying what? Saying that outbound travel restrictions would be comprehensively tightened was a misinterpretation of new regulations. What does this show? It shows that this loophole—the Chinese Communist Party is currently keeping an eye on the topic of outbound travel. But cyber-fleeing Ren Zhengfei hasn't appeared even once as of today. Following Zhuzhidao's old rules, a single notice from the Cyberspace Administration of China could monopolize the entire internet for such posts. This step still hasn't appeared yet. What does this show? At the very least, it shows that the official Chinese Communist Party does not intend to shield Huawei from this wave right now. This point is also the most favorable to the political pressure theory and unfavorable to the pure rumor theory, because if it were a pure rumor, the Chinese Communist Party would at least come out and block it. Things that have already appeared must also be mentioned. What does this screenshot say? It says that Chairman Liang Hua has been unable to contact Ren Zhengfei for two consecutive days. If this screenshot were fake, it would mean nothing, but if this screenshot is real, what does it indicate? At the very least, it indicates that the order indeed came from Huawei. Even the chairman can't reach him, which is also favorable evidence for political pressure and unfavorable evidence for a pure rumor incident. Let's look at something else. What is it? The shape of this propagation chain. First, it started with an anonymous screenshot, and within an hour, Taiwanese online media began to follow up. Further along, Huawei's websites in Malaysia and North America also followed up with a few steps. Then came this YouTube video, and finally, the self-media on Douyin and Bilibili—that is, the self-media within the firewall. In other words, not a single link was inside mainland China. At the same time, somewhat weighty media outlets like Reuters, Bloomberg, and the Wall Street Journal—none of them touched this news. Reuters' reporter covering the Huawei case had just written about this trial starting on September 8. It can be said that the Huawei news he tells is the most direct. Even he doesn't write about it, which can only indicate what? It indicates that not a single true fleeing signal leaked out from within Huawei. This is unfavorable to the fleeing theory, and it is consistent with the penetration method of a pure rumor, but it carries no informational value for political pressure. Although the rumor was produced overseas, the pressure can still be real; these two things are not mutually exclusive. Moreover, let's return to Huawei itself. On September 8, Huawei had already issued a statement against the trial, criticizing the US government's narrative. What did it say? It said the US government's narrative was obviously wrong. At the very least, this indicates one thing: last week, Huawei's public relations system was operating normally. Therefore, not coming out to debunk rumors this time can only be a choice or the receipt of a certain order, rather than paralysis. So do people still think this is fleeing or being restricted? Actually, when you put these together, the direction emerges. The starting point for fleeing is the lowest, and among these four pieces of evidence, not a single one moves toward that side, and the evidence here is also rather pale—that's the armed police surrounding the building. Then, the possibility of a pure rumor is relatively in the middle among these options, because none of the actions that should have appeared in these four points did appear. From the outbreak of that Zhuzhidao incident to the legal department publishing the complaint statistics, the reaction time for such a small matter was about a week. Comparing this incident with the Zhuzhidao incident, even if Ren Zhengfei, Meng Wanzhou, and Annabel Yao are worthless, they should at least be worth slightly more than Zhuzhidao. Your boss's family is on the blacklist, and it wouldn't be unreasonable to debunk a rumor in three days, right? At the very least, Huawei's legal department complaints should have appeared by September 15 or 16. But these past two days, there is still no movement. As for the political pressure theory, its starting point should be the highest. All the absent actions over the three days are moving toward this side. So my judgment today is this: fleeing can basically be ruled out, and what's left is a race between the pure rumor theory and the political pressure theory. Actually, the critical point is tomorrow. Why say look at tomorrow?

Because tomorrow is September 17, which is also the opening day of Huawei's Full Connect Conference at the Shanghai World Expo Exhibition and Convention Center, this is the only scheduled event that Huawei cannot avoid within three days. The keynote speaker is rotating chairman Xu Zhijun, and he will definitely appear, so instead of looking at the main event, what should we look at? We should look at the VIP seating and the media Q&A session to see if Meng Wanzhou is sitting there, or if there is any footage of Meng Wanzhou that day. If she appears, the rumor of fleeing can basically be falsified, and the remaining question is simply whether the Chinese Communist Party is controlling Ren Zhengfei alone or his entire family. We still need to focus on observing the remarks of these few people. Who are these few people respectively? They are Xu Zhijun, Hu Houkun, and Liang Hua. If any of them answer reporters' questions and provide specific information about Ren Zhengfei, then the political pressure line will drop. If they have already been gagged, rest assured they will definitely not dare to speak. Conversely, if none of Ren Zhengfei's family members are present, and at the same time Huawei cannot provide any reasonable explanation, then the political pressure line can be completely and thoroughly substantiated.

We can also look at circumstantial evidence, which is the fate of these posts on Douyin. If all these posts are completely deleted by tomorrow, it at least proves one thing: that the idiots in Huawei's legal department haven't died quietly, and at the very least, they have filed batch complaints. This further indicates that Huawei's toolkit is, at a minimum, functioning normally. Under these circumstances, the possibility that this is pure rumor would increase. If the posts and videos remain and the algorithm continues to push them, while Huawei's legal team still doesn't move, then the theory of political pressure can be confirmed. Finally, we offer another perspective for observation. Have you noticed that ever since the Zhuzhidao incident, the Cyberspace Administration of China (CAC) hasn't really been looking after Huawei? It feels a bit like they are distancing themselves, don't you think? And what has the fermentation of the news been revolving around? For the past two months, it has been hitting the exact public opinion points that the CCP most wants to stabilize. Last month, when the rumor spread that James Liang had fled, it was August 20th. This Ren Zhengfei story is stuck right on the eve of the new regulations on September 15th. These are the days when the CCP most needs everyone to believe that exit restrictions will not be tightened. This time, there is an added layer: the Brooklyn court case is set to be heard until December. During these two months, Huawei should at least keep its head down, be extremely cautious, and avoid letting this matter trigger a public incident. Everyone can clearly see one thing: ever since Zhuzhidao, the 'far ahead' narrative of Huawei has basically been ruined. I even think they have changed their method of paying for public opinion. Why do I say that? Previously, Huawei used public funds for this; to put it bluntly, a single red-letter document from the CAC would cause all negative news about Huawei across the entire internet to be cut off. Now, Huawei is using a self-funded model. The legal department has to file complaints themselves—144 videos, and you have to file complaints one by one to take down a sign—and as for the rest, they can fly however they want. This time, even the rumor of Ren Zhengfei fleeing has been hanging on Douyin for several days. Could it be that these idiot legal and PR teams at Huawei have learned their lesson? A month ago, when Zhuzhidao was mentioned, they were like cats on a hot tin roof. This time, when it's said their boss's family has fled, they haven't made a peep. This is too abnormal. In fact, since Zhuzhidao, we can see the change in the narrative regarding Huawei across all domestic media. Let's put it this way: which enterprise has tied itself to the CCP since the founding of the regime and had a good ending? Not a single one. This idiot Zhuang Zhong, with nothing better to do, keeps bringing it up himself. And don't forget, last month even that idiot Xi Oudi, the legendary Li Shufu of Geely Auto, was retreating. Combined with the narrative of internal CCP power struggles, I think the possibility that Huawei is being affected by internal CCP politics is the greatest. As for what has actually happened to Ren Zhengfei and his family, we will know by tomorrow. Alright, that's all for today's comparison. If you like my program, please remember to subscribe and hit the bell. If you would like to support me, you can join the membership channel. The membership channel has four in-depth programs every month. Welcome to join the ranks of good people. See you in the next episode.