Late Dynasty, What Should the Dissidents Do?

The East Depot's threat to the public not to 'lie flat' and to get up and grow leeks for the country actually reflects one thing: the dynasty has entered its late stage.

There is actually not much to say about this. What is more interesting is another question: the dynasty is in its late stage, so what should the dissidents do?

A few days days ago, exiled Tibetans held elections. They were synchronized and orderly across the globe. But why can't exiled Han Chinese and overseas Chinese organize a widespread, genuine election?

Some say it is because the Chinese people are incapable.

Actually, it is not.

Tibetans were able to do this, besides the small population, high homogeneity under the support of shared faith, culture, and language, and external support, for another important reason: they had a high starting point. When the Dalai Lama left, he took with him an existing small group and small government, possessing huge organizational inertia. A similar example is Taiwan; Chiang Kai-shek also took an existing government with him, so it was able to maintain orderly administrative organization. After democratization, it was equally able to organize elections.

Therefore, if we view the mainlanders who retreated to Taiwan as exiled Han Chinese and overseas Chinese, then saying this group cannot organize elections does not conform to the facts.

However, what many people criticize is actually more about the exiled dissidents outside of Taiwan.

This is actually not the fault of the dissidents. Exiled Chinese dissidents, like similar groups in other countries, face similar problems: limited resources, frequent internal strife, conflicts between personal life and political ideals, and contradictions of identity and recognition as exiles in a foreign land...

At the same time, if dissidents want to win support among overseas Chinese to organize elections, they must face additional huge problems: the vast number of overseas Chinese, scattered communities, highly diverse interests and claims, intricate economic and interpersonal ties with mainland China, plus the active transnational penetration and repression by the Chinese government... The superposition of various unfavorable factors makes it almost an impossible mission for exiled dissidents to organize a legitimate and real election among overseas Chinese. But if someone attempts it, we should encourage and support them.

Dissidents are also flesh and blood, with human weaknesses; there is no need to be overly harsh. Being able to make a small step forward every day is already precious.

Although the Party-State has entered its late stage, it still holds huge power, and high-pressure control is quite efficient. Like the Communist Party did back then—organizing some kind of uprising or rebellion, occupying a base area, and playing the 'rural encircling the cities' game... is basically impossible now.

To change the regime, one can only induce change through chaos.

Future changes in China may follow two models:

First, the Xinhai model: dissidents launch raids in border areas, leading sabotage activities within the borders, disrupting order and stirring people's hearts, driving various forces to gradually become active and centrifugal, eventually leading to the collapse of the ruling order.

Second, the South African model: dissidents gradually gain negotiation status through armed activities, exchanging the abandonment of armed struggle for the legitimate space for peaceful struggle, and requiring the authorities to go with the flow and begin a positive interaction with the dissidents, eventually completing the transition in a peaceful manner.

Apart from these, the realistic feasibility of other paths is very low. As for the delusions of reform, such as the Party-led constitutionalism advocated by some, they go without saying.

One last point: in the current world, the main subject of political practice is still the nation-state. Looking at rebellion cases from the past to recent years, if dissidents want to succeed, they must to some extent play the nationalist card, even if it is to accuse communism as being a foreign colonialist.

I personally do not like or am even wary of nationalism, but the nationalist card is a big card that pragmatic political activists cannot help but face and must handle cautiously.

In short, this road is long and arduous, but ending the CCP's tyranny is a good thing. Therefore,

Do good deeds, and do not ask about the future.