“自由贸易”是假象，中国真正捍卫的是美元顺差

中国的宣传机器，把中国描述成一个倡导全球化并捍卫自由贸易的经济体。

但事实并不是这样。

但中国的国有企业，年营业额占GDP总量超过60%。

截至2023年底，中国国有企业资产总额371.9万亿元，国有金融企业资产总额445.1万亿元，行政事业性国有资产总额64.2万亿元。

根据2024中国民营企业500强发布报告，中国的前500强民营企业，总资产只有49.85万亿人民币，还不如中国行政事业单位的总资产多。

民营和外资，解决了中国80%以上的就业，还实施了中国绝大部分出口，负责赚外汇，而国企主要负责进口，尤其是大宗商品的进口，也就是说，国企主要负责花钱。

看明白分工了？

[caption id="attachment_2281" align="aligncenter" width="1080"] “自由贸易”是假象，中国真正捍卫的是顺差与美元 01[/caption]

[caption id="attachment_2282" align="aligncenter" width="1242"] “自由贸易”是假象，中国真正捍卫的是顺差与美元 02[/caption]

[caption id="attachment_2283" align="aligncenter" width="1080"] “自由贸易”是假象，中国真正捍卫的是顺差与美元 03[/caption]

[caption id="attachment_2284" align="aligncenter" width="1080"] “自由贸易”是假象，中国真正捍卫的是顺差与美元 04[/caption]

以上都是公开数据，这些数据会说话，但需要有人正确解读。

另外，中国还实施严厉的资本管制，对居民和企业，实施严格的境外投资限制，而资本管制，是自由贸易的死敌，连钱都不能自由流动，怎么自由贸易？

中国还实行新闻审查、影视审查、网络审查制度，西方国家的新闻社、出版商、电影电视节目发行商，互联网公司基本上都无法在中国运营。

中国是一个管制型政府，中国捍卫的并不是“自由贸易”，而是“贸易顺差”。

重要的事情再说一遍，中国捍卫的并不是“自由贸易”，而是“贸易顺差”，是中国政府赚取美元的能力，只要有美元顺差进来，国企和政府才能“有钱花”。

而国企和政府，花钱的效率是很低的，但没办法，制度设计就是这样，这就是榨取型制度，这也是中国永远也不可能实施分配制度改革的原因，政府傻吗？自己把自己搞穷？

中国人必须穷，也只能穷，分配制度就是这样，这个分配制度，扭曲了财富分配，更扭曲了产业结构和就业市场，于是中国人才会“卷”，“利出一孔”的制度安排，不卷才怪。

你把中国的土地制度、户籍制度、分配制度搞清楚了，把法家思想家管仲的“利出一孔”概念搞清楚了，你就知道中国为什么会这么卷了。

中国必须鼓励并扩大出口，限制并减少进口，这就是连深圳上海这样的一线城市，人均GDP超过20000美元，几乎达到中等发达国家水平，但法定最低工资只有2000多元人民币的原因。

1960年代，周恩来有句话，一切为了外贸，尽管中国百姓生活困难，中国依然大量出口粮食、棉花、肉类、食用油……

一切为了外贸，到今天依然是中国国策，说得直白一点：一切为了顺差，一切为了美元。

如果中国人富裕了，“中国制造”外国人就买不起了，而且中国人有钱了还要出国消费，还要去国外买房、移民……那么中国的国际收支顺差就会消失，政府就会变穷。

就如日本政府一样，很穷，日本的国际收支顺差来源于民间在海外的投资利润回报，日本政府背债，藏富于民，藏富于民营企业…..

日本政府的债务全世界最高，达到GDP的200%以上，都快破产了，日本人不担心，中国人更不担心，很多富裕人士愿意去日本生活，还把自己的孩子也送去，留学、移民。

日本制度相对自由，政府运作透明，资本不管制，福利有保障，生活质量高，工作机会多……还有，日元贬值，中国人移民日本的性价比变得更高。

一个自由的国度，才可能有自由贸易。

The Myth of Free Trade: What China Really Defends Is Its Dollar Surplus

China’s propaganda machine portrays China as an economy that advocates globalization and defends free trade.

But the truth is not like that at all.

But in reality, China’s state-owned enterprises have annual revenues that account for over 60% of the total GDP.

As of the end of 2023, the total assets of China’s state-owned enterprises reached 371.9 trillion yuan; the total assets of state-owned financial institutions were 445.1 trillion yuan; and the total assets of state administrative and public service units were 64.2 trillion yuan.

According to the 2024 report on China’s Top 500 Private Enterprises, the combined assets of China’s top 500 private companies are only 49.85 trillion yuan — which is actually less than the total assets of China’s government administrative and public institutions.

Private and foreign-funded enterprises provide over 80% of China’s employment and carry out the vast majority of China’s exports, thereby earning foreign exchange. State-owned enterprises, on the other hand, are mainly responsible for imports, especially imports of bulk commodities. In other words, state-owned enterprises are primarily responsible for spending money.

Do you see how the roles are divided now?

All of the above are public data. These numbers speak for themselves, but they still need someone to interpret them correctly.

Additionally, China imposes severe capital controls, with strict restrictions on overseas investments for both residents and businesses. And capital controls are the mortal enemy of free trade — if even money cannot flow freely, how can there be free trade?

China also enforces press censorship, film censorship, and internet censorship. Western news agencies, publishers, film and television distributors, and internet companies are basically unable to operate in China.

China is a control-oriented state. What it defends is not “free trade” at all, but rather “trade surplus.”

One more time, because it’s important: China is defending not “free trade” but “trade surplus” — meaning the Chinese government’s ability to earn U.S. dollars. Only as long as a surplus of U.S. dollars keeps coming in can the state-owned enterprises and the government have “money to spend.”

Meanwhile, state-owned enterprises and the government are very inefficient at spending money. But there’s no helping it — the system was designed this way. This is an extractive system, and it’s also the reason China will never be able to implement any reform of its wealth distribution system. Is the government stupid? Would it really impoverish itself?

Chinese people have to be poor, and can only be poor; the distribution system is set up that way. This distribution system has distorted the distribution of wealth, and even more so has distorted the industrial structure and job market. As a result, Chinese people inevitably end up “involuting.” With a system arranged such that “all profits come out of one hole,” it would be strange if people weren’t involuting.

China must encourage and expand exports and restrict and reduce imports. This is why even in first-tier cities like Shenzhen and Shanghai — where per capita GDP exceeds $20,000 (almost reaching the level of a moderately developed country) — the legal minimum wage is only a little over 2,000 yuan（80USD/week).

In the 1960s, Zhou Enlai had a saying: “Everything for foreign trade.” Despite how difficult life was for the Chinese populace, China still exported large quantities of grain, cotton, meat, and cooking oil…

“Everything for foreign trade” remains China’s national policy to this day. To put it bluntly: everything is for the surplus, everything is for U.S. dollars.

If the Chinese people became affluent, then foreigners would no longer be able to afford “Made in China” products. Moreover, if Chinese people had money, they’d go abroad to spend it, buy houses overseas, emigrate, and so on… In that case, China’s balance-of-payments surplus would disappear, and the government would become poor.

Just look at Japan’s government — it’s very poor. Japan’s international balance of payments surplus comes from the returns on private investments overseas. The Japanese government carries debt, leaving the wealth in the hands of the citizens and private enterprises…

Japan’s government debt is the highest in the world, over 200% of GDP — it’s almost bankrupt. Yet the Japanese aren’t worried, and the Chinese are even less worried about that. In fact, many wealthy Chinese are willing to go live in Japan, and they even send their children there to study or immigrate.

Japan’s system is relatively free, its government operates transparently, and there are no capital controls. Welfare is assured, the quality of life is high, and job opportunities are plentiful… Plus, with the yen’s depreciation, it has become even more cost-effective for Chinese people to migrate to Japan.

Only a free country can have free trade.