俄乌战争与美国道义危机：川普的错误抉择

各位反贼朋友，如大家所见，川普在俄乌问题上的一系列表述和动作遭到了反贼网的持续批判。

这些批评可能是转发其他批评的内容，或者自己发布批评的内容。

我们批判的最根本原因是因为川普的所作所为失去了道义——道德和正义。

记得在川普刚上台前和刚上台后，我和一位美国左派进行了一场围绕川普的争论。他试图让我相信川普不是一个适合做美国总统的人。

他说，他是个独裁者。

我笑了，我说，我是中国人，还有比我们更了解独裁者什么样的么？川普离独裁者还差得远呢。

我支持川普当选，因为我对民主党在对待中共上的作为不满意，我希望美国对中共进行更有力的打击。我觉得川普这个人最起码是个神智清醒，能够正常行动和表达的人。而且，他所宣传的将对中国进口商品加大关税和让制造业回归美国是对中共很有效的打击策略。

他告诉我川普是个强奸犯，玩过很多女人，我说，我不在乎他操过几个女人，他只要能打击中共，我就支持他。

没错，我对川普寄予厚望，希望他能够狠狠的打击中共，为此还在X上于不少反共人士吵翻了。

我始终站在一个中国人的立场、一个中国异议人士的立场去思考问题。只要能打击中共，我根本不在乎他在美国国内怎么折腾。

我极度反感马斯克，因为马斯克不仅将工厂建在中国，还与中国政府有深度的利益交换，之前说过很多，这里就不多说了。

即便是这样，我也忍了。

但是，现在真的不能忍了，在俄乌问题上，川普的言行已经到了令人发指的程度。

1.美国有没有义务在乌克兰受到侵略的时候保护乌克兰？

苏联解体后，乌克兰继承了大量核武器，成为仅次于美国和俄罗斯的世界第三大核武国家。为确保全球核不扩散，美国等国希望乌克兰放弃核武器，并给予安全保障。1994年12月5日，乌克兰、俄罗斯、美国、英国在匈牙利布达佩斯签署《布达佩斯安全保障备忘录》。作为乌克兰放弃核武器、加入《不扩散核武器条约》（NPT）的交换条件，美国、英国和俄罗斯向乌克兰提供安全保障，承诺：

• 尊重乌克兰的独立、主权和现有边界；

• 不对乌克兰使用武力或威胁使用武力；

• 不对乌克兰施加经济压力，以影响其政策；

• 如果乌克兰受到侵略，签署国应立即向联合国安理会寻求行动；

• 不使用核武器攻击乌克兰，除非遭到该国核攻击。

很明显，俄罗斯入侵乌克兰违反了在《布达佩斯安全保障备忘录》中的承诺。川普政府试图强迫乌克兰签订稀土矿开发协议换取美国继续支持乌克兰也违反了“不对乌克兰施加经济压力，以影响其政策”的承诺。“签署国应立即向联合国安理会寻求行动”到了川普政府这里却变成“联合国大会支持谴责俄罗斯入侵决议 美国投反对票”。

《布达佩斯备忘录》不是一项具有法律约束力的正式军事同盟条约，因此不等同于北约的集体防御义务（如《北约华盛顿条约》第五条），但依旧在政治和道义上有责任支持乌克兰抵御侵略。承诺本身就是一种约束，如果承诺可以随意被违反，被放弃，被推翻，那这个世界的信用将荡然无存。美国在当今世界之中的地位也完全建立在其长久以来积累的国际信用之上。

川普经常说：“我果当时我是总统，这场战争不会发生。”真的是这样么？我不知道，但是有一点我知道，如果当初乌克兰不放弃核武器，现在这场战争就一定不会发生。从这一点来说，究竟是谁引发这场了战争？

2.川普指责乌克兰发动战争，泽连斯基是独裁者。

这是赤裸裸的颠倒黑白。俄罗斯入侵乌克兰这是无可争议的事实。乌克兰人民正在进行的是一场完全正义的反侵略战争，川普想在这个问题上做文章搅混水，必然是搬起石头砸自己的脚。更可恶的是，后来川普在采访中又说：“我说过这样的话么？我不敢相信我说过这样的话。”对，他们在全世界媒体面前当众羞辱泽连斯基，嘲笑他不穿西装，逼迫他向美国说谢谢。可是他自己对污蔑泽连斯基和乌克兰人民这样严重的错误却绝不说一声“对不起”——即便，事实是，泽连斯基此前多次在社交媒体上表达对美国的谢意。

3.得道多助，失道寡助。

我有一个基本的判断，就是，如果双方没有任何盟友的援助，纯粹的1V1热战，美国并不能战胜中共国。因为美国的制造能力已经大不如中共国了。这也是为什么我支持川普当选的一个重要原因，因为他试图让制造业回流美国。因为真正的大国战争到最后一定是拼补给能力，人力的补给，弹药的补给，各种物资和后勤的补给。

基于这样的判断，我认为，如果川普继续在乌克兰问题上搞这种让美国离心离德的操作，必将会导致美国众叛亲离。轻则与传统盟友关系不恰，互相指责，互相加税。重则引发全球新一轮核军备竞赛，全球陷入核扩散的危机中。

https://twitter.com/fanzei_net/status/1895948782468284657

最重要的是，这给了中共可乘之机。中共一直谋求在国际社会更多的话语权，向全球推广其集权主义治理体系，以及用人民币替代美元的国际货币地位。

4.为什么美元能够全球合理化撸羊毛？

美国通过美元撸全世界羊毛这个事情到了现在必须要提了，之前不提是因为美国还在担负着维护国际秩序和正义的角色，这才让你通过美元撸羊毛合法化。如果你不去承担维护世界秩序和正义的责任，那美元也就没有资格继续占据世界货币的位置（国际储蓄货币和主要国际贸易货币）。而事实上，中共积极推进的新丝绸之路就是为了推广人民币，颠覆美元的地位。世界之所以不认人民币，就是因为中共的所作所为不得世界人民的心，不正义。如果美国也失去世界人民的心，不再站在正义一边，那刚好给了人民币机会。如果美元失去国际货币的地位，那美国将会彻底衰落，东升西降将成为现实。我们也再也不用幻想美国打压中共的事情了。到那时，只有中共拿捏美国的份了。

5.反共反的是什么？

说到底，我们反共反的是什么？反的是集权专制，独裁者。我们相信民主自由，相信正义必然战胜邪恶。所以我们支持美国，把美国唤作灯塔，相信美国在引领着世界的民主、自由、正义的力量。如果美国变成了集权国家，美国总统变成了独裁者，美国不再维护世界的公平正义反而是破坏世界的公平正义，那么我们还有必要继续支持美国么？那跟支持另一个中共有什么区别？

我们反专制反独裁，推崇自由民主，为的是让更多的人过上更好的生活，能更加享受到的过完这一生，而不是在奴役中过完这一生。

我们肯定是反战的，但是自由并不是免费的。他是需要付出血与泪的。独裁者从来不会自己结束自己，而独裁者的兴奋剂就是被欺压者的低头与退让。

[caption id="attachment_2073" align="alignnone" width="300"] 跪地与退让是独裁者的兴奋剂[/caption]

乌克兰人民的英勇抵抗，不只是在捍卫乌克兰人民自己的领土与尊严，更是在捍卫全世界的正义信仰。

所以，如果你认为自己是真的反共，真的反独裁，就应该支持乌克兰人民的反侵略斗争，批评川普在乌克兰问题上颠倒黑白的言行。

乌克兰人民必胜，正义必胜。

As everyone can see, Trump’s statements and actions regarding the Russia-Ukraine issue have faced continuous criticism from the anti-communist community.

These criticisms may come from sharing opinions of others or from personal critiques.

The fundamental reason for our criticism is that Trump’s actions have lost their moral and ethical legitimacy.

Before Trump took office, and shortly after he did, I had a debate with an American leftist about him. He tried to convince me that Trump was unfit to be the President of the United States.

He said Trump was a dictator.

I laughed and said, "I’m Chinese. Who understands dictators better than we do? Trump is far from being a dictator."

I supported Trump's election because I was dissatisfied with the Democratic Party’s approach to dealing with the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). I hoped the U.S. would take stronger actions against the CCP. I believed that, at the very least, Trump was a clear-headed individual who could act and speak normally. Furthermore, his proposed policies of imposing tariffs on Chinese imports and bringing manufacturing back to the U.S. were effective strategies against the CCP.

He told me that Trump was a rapist and had been with many women. I said, "I don’t care how many women he has slept with. As long as he fights against the CCP, I support him."

Indeed, I had high hopes for Trump to strike hard against the CCP. For this, I even had numerous arguments with other anti-communist individuals on X.

I have always considered these issues from the standpoint of a Chinese dissident. As long as he fights the CCP, I don’t care what he does domestically in the U.S.

I despise Elon Musk because he not only built factories in China but also has deep exchanges of interests with the Chinese government. I have spoken about this many times before, so I will not elaborate here.

Even so, I tolerated it.

But now, I can no longer endure it. Trump’s statements and actions regarding the Russia-Ukraine war have become outrageous.

1. Does the U.S. have an obligation to protect Ukraine when it is invaded?

After the Soviet Union collapsed, Ukraine inherited a large nuclear arsenal, making it the third-largest nuclear power after the U.S. and Russia. To ensure global nuclear non-proliferation, countries like the U.S. urged Ukraine to relinquish its nuclear weapons in exchange for security guarantees.

On December 5, 1994, Ukraine, Russia, the U.S., and the U.K. signed the Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances in Hungary. In return for Ukraine giving up its nuclear weapons and joining the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), the U.S., the U.K., and Russia pledged:

To respect Ukraine’s independence, sovereignty, and existing borders;

Not to use force or threaten to use force against Ukraine;

Not to impose economic pressure to influence Ukraine’s policies;

If Ukraine were attacked, the signatories would seek action through the UN Security Council;

Not to use nuclear weapons against Ukraine unless Ukraine itself launched a nuclear attack.

Clearly, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine violates its commitments under the Budapest Memorandum. The Trump administration’s attempt to force Ukraine into a rare earth mining agreement in exchange for continued U.S. support also violates the commitment not to impose economic pressure on Ukraine. Moreover, instead of seeking UN Security Council action, the Trump administration voted against a UN General Assembly resolution condemning Russia’s invasion.

The Budapest Memorandum is not a formal military alliance treaty with legally binding obligations like NATO’s Article 5. However, it still carries political and moral responsibilities to support Ukraine against aggression. A promise itself is a form of obligation. If promises can be broken at will, global trust will collapse, and the U.S.'s position in the world, built on its long-standing international credibility, will be destroyed.

Trump often says, "If I were president at the time, this war would not have happened." Is that really the case? I don't know. But one thing I do know is that if Ukraine had not given up its nuclear weapons, this war would definitely not have happened. From this perspective, who truly caused this war?

1. Trump blames Ukraine for the war and calls Zelensky a dictator.

This is a blatant distortion of reality. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is an indisputable fact. The Ukrainian people are fighting a just war of self-defense. Trump’s attempt to muddy the waters on this issue will only backfire.

What’s worse, Trump later denied his own words in an interview: “Did I say that? I can’t believe I said that.” They humiliated Zelensky in front of global media, mocked him for not wearing a suit, and forced him to thank the U.S. Yet, when it comes to Trump’s own serious false accusations against Zelensky and the Ukrainian people, he refuses to apologize—even though Zelensky has repeatedly expressed gratitude toward the U.S. on social media.

1. Gaining support through justice, losing support through betrayal.

My fundamental judgment is that if both sides were left without allies and had to fight a 1v1 hot war, the U.S. could not defeat the CCP. The U.S. manufacturing capability is now far inferior to that of the CCP.

That is why I supported Trump’s election—because he sought to bring manufacturing back to the U.S. Major wars ultimately come down to supply capabilities: human resources, ammunition, logistics, and materials.

If Trump continues to alienate allies through his stance on Ukraine, the U.S. will face dire consequences. At best, traditional alliances will weaken, leading to trade disputes and mutual tariffs. At worst, a new global nuclear arms race could be triggered, plunging the world into crisis.

More importantly, this gives the CCP an opportunity. The CCP has long sought more influence in the international community, promoting its authoritarian governance model and attempting to position the Chinese yuan as a global currency alternative to the dollar.

1. Why does the U.S. have the privilege of global financial dominance?

The reason the U.S. has maintained global financial dominance through the dollar is that it has played the role of upholding international order and justice. If the U.S. abandons this responsibility, it loses its justification for dollar hegemony. Meanwhile, China’s Belt and Road Initiative is actively pushing for the yuan to challenge the dollar’s position.

If the world ceases to recognize the U.S. dollar due to America’s moral failure, then the downfall of the U.S. is inevitable. The "rise of the East and decline of the West" will become reality. At that point, there will be no hope of the U.S. countering the CCP—it will be the CCP controlling the U.S. instead.

1. What does it mean to oppose the CCP?

Ultimately, opposing the CCP means opposing autocracy and dictatorship. We believe in democracy and freedom. We believe that justice will prevail over evil. That is why we have supported the U.S. and viewed it as a beacon of democracy, freedom, and justice.

If the U.S. turns into an autocratic country with a dictator president, no longer upholding global justice but instead undermining it, why should we continue to support the U.S.? How would that be any different from supporting another version of the CCP?

Freedom is never free—it requires sacrifice. Dictators never fall on their own; their power is fueled by the submission of the oppressed.

The Ukrainian people’s resistance is not just about defending their land and dignity—it is about upholding global justice.

If you truly oppose dictatorship, you should support Ukraine’s fight against invasion and criticize Trump’s distortion of facts.

Ukraine will prevail. Justice will prevail.