川普在想什麼？

川普在想什麼？

我認為他希望歐洲（歐盟）發生“根本性的整體顛覆”。

歐盟是歐洲國家的政治經濟聯盟，德法主導；

而北約是美國主導。

美國軍事上保護歐盟，卻無法主導歐洲的政治經濟，哪有這樣的道理？

歐盟的貨幣是歐元，歐元是世界第二強貨幣，抗衡美元，川普天天把“誰不用美元就給誰加關稅”掛在嘴上。

歐洲經濟政治一體化，東歐國家紛紛加入，實際上就是對非歐盟國家（主要是俄羅斯）的“變相經濟制裁”，俄羅斯被排除在圈子之外，當然不舒服。

面對一個強大的歐盟，美國會舒服嗎？一個強大的歐洲對美國是好事嗎？

美國史學界一直有一個觀點，就是，美國20世紀的最大失誤就是冷戰結束，德國統一，歐洲再次崛起。

川普的邏輯，very simple， very straightforward.

英國“意外”脫歐，看來可能是運氣太好。

歐洲統一後，表面上看對大家都有好處，尤其是頭20-30年，但一旦面對債務危機，一旦面對移民入侵，一旦面對外敵發動的戰爭，問題出來了，各懷心腹事，一邊抵抗俄羅斯侵略，一邊向俄羅斯買石油，買電，還與支援俄羅斯的中國繼續做生意。

尤其是歐元區，大麻煩，各國政府的債務問題永遠解決不了，歐元區國家幾乎被繫結，任何國家都無法承受歐元區解體，一旦發生顛覆，就是“整體性顛覆”，代價巨大。

這就像中國，大一統是好事，但大一統之下，一旦發生的革命，就是整體顛覆，為什麼中國走不出歷史週期律？ 制度造成的☝️中央集權之下，一旦發生革命，就是upheaval......就是天下大亂，要大治，就必須先大亂。

美國，聯邦制，川普再怎麼折騰，不會天下大亂，但中國，領導人一折騰，看看“十年文革”，再看看“三年清零”......

英國能發生光榮革命，日本能明治維新，但中國做不到，郡縣制，不是分封制，“莫從子厚返文王”，秦制的麻煩：權力太過集中，思想太過統一，社會精英鐵板一塊，對付老百姓。“百代都行秦政治”，在中國製度下，你一旦墮入社會底層，很慘的。

中國本來就是“倒丁字形”社會結構，底層龐大，經濟好的時候，社會矛盾被暫時掩蓋，但隨著經濟下行，老齡化加劇，社會救助體系本來就是擺設，社會底層會進一步擴大，矛盾一旦尖銳到一定程度，頂層再發生最高領導人身體健康問題，很可能發生“整體性顛覆”，這就是歷史週期律發生作用了，而這種整體性顛覆，這麼大人口基數，這麼龐大的貧困底層，一旦發生社會大亂，就萬劫不復。

蘇聯開始急劇衰敗就是因為勃列日涅夫的去世，他去世前發動了蘇阿戰爭，他死後戰爭持續，這場戰爭幾乎拖垮了蘇聯財政。

經濟學家、上海財大校長劉元春2023年說，中國的青年失業率會持續十年，處理不好就會成為政治問題的導火索。中國的老齡化處理不好，更麻煩。中國社會問題還沒爆發的一個原因，是中國的年輕人“還有老可以啃”，等到他們父母退休金都發不出來的時候，問題就會總爆發。

目前看來，中國的人口老化加速幾乎是不可逆轉的，那麼中國發生“整體性顛覆”的可能性也是越來越大，再強大的核心也不可能“長生不老”，人老了腦子也會老化，控制力也會削弱。

川普是不是看到了普通人看不到的vision?

川普是不是上帝給美國派來的總統？

就像上帝給中國人派來了毛澤東？給猶太人派來了摩西？

如果未來20-30年，中國與歐洲（歐盟）相繼發生“根本性的整體顛覆”，那麼美國是不是就可以自動“再次偉大”了呢？

What is Trump Thinking?

I believe he hopes for a "fundamental and overall upheaval" in Europe (the EU).

The EU is a political and economic alliance of European countries, led by Germany and France;

Meanwhile, NATO is led by the United States.

The U.S. provides military protection for the EU but cannot dominate Europe politically or economically—how does that make sense?

The EU's currency is the euro, the world's second most powerful currency, which competes with the U.S. dollar. Trump constantly talks about imposing tariffs on those who do not use the dollar.

European economic and political integration, with Eastern European countries joining in, essentially acts as an "economic sanction in disguise" against non-EU countries, primarily Russia. Being excluded from this circle, Russia naturally feels uncomfortable.

Does the U.S. feel comfortable facing a powerful EU? Is a strong Europe a good thing for America?

There has long been a view in U.S. historical circles that America's biggest mistake of the 20th century was allowing the Cold War to end, Germany to reunify, and Europe to rise again.

Trump's logic is very simple, very straightforward.

The "unexpected" Brexit—perhaps just a stroke of luck?

On the surface, European unity seems beneficial for everyone, especially in the first 20–30 years. But once faced with a debt crisis, an influx of immigrants, or a war launched by an external enemy, problems arise.

Each country has its own interests: fighting against Russian aggression while buying oil and electricity from Russia, continuing business with China, which supports Russia.

Especially in the eurozone, the debt problems of national governments will never be resolved. Eurozone countries are practically bound together—no country can afford the dissolution of the eurozone. If an upheaval occurs, it will be an "overall upheaval" with enormous consequences.

This is similar to China. Unification seems like a good thing, but under unification, once a revolution happens, it leads to overall upheaval. Why can’t China escape the cycle of history?

The system itself is to blame. ☝️ Under centralized power, any revolution leads to upheaval. Chaos must come before order.

The U.S. is a federal system—no matter how much Trump stirs things up, it won’t lead to nationwide turmoil. But in China, when a leader makes a move, look at the "Ten Years of the Cultural Revolution" or the "Three Years of Zero-COVID Policy"...

The UK had the Glorious Revolution, and Japan had the Meiji Restoration, but China cannot do the same. Its commandery-county system is not a feudal system—"Do not return from Han Yu to King Wen" (莫從子厚返文王).

The problem with the Qin system is over-centralized power, overly unified thought, and a ruling elite forming a solid front against the common people.

"For a hundred generations, all have followed Qin's political system."

Under China's system, once you fall into the lower class, it’s a nightmare.

China has always had a "T-shaped" social structure, with a huge lower class. When the economy is good, social contradictions are temporarily hidden. But as the economy declines and aging accelerates, with a social welfare system that is practically nonexistent, the lower class will further expand.

Once contradictions become too sharp, if the top leadership also faces a health crisis, an "overall upheaval" is highly likely.

This is the historical cycle at work. And with such a large population base, such a massive poor underclass, once societal disorder erupts, it will be catastrophic.

The Soviet Union began its rapid decline after Brezhnev’s death. Before his death, he launched the Soviet-Afghan War, and after his death, the war continued, draining the Soviet Union’s finances.

In 2023, economist Liu Yuanchun, president of Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, stated that China’s youth unemployment rate would remain high for a decade, and if not handled properly, it could become a political flashpoint.

If China’s aging problem is not addressed, it will be even worse.

One reason China’s social problems have not yet exploded is that young people "still have parents to rely on". But once their parents’ pensions can no longer be paid, problems will erupt all at once.

As of now, China's rapid aging seems irreversible, meaning the likelihood of an "overall upheaval" is increasing.

No matter how strong the "core leadership" is, no one can live forever. As a leader ages, their mental faculties will also decline, and their control will weaken.

Did Trump foresee something that ordinary people cannot see?

Is Trump the president sent by God to America?

Just like God sent Mao Zedong to China? Like God sent Moses to the Jews?

If in the next 20–30 years, both China and Europe (the EU) undergo "fundamental and overall upheavals,"

Will the United States automatically "become great again"?