川普在想什么？

川普在想什么？

我认为他希望欧洲（欧盟）发生“根本性的整体颠覆”。

欧盟是欧洲国家的政治经济联盟，德法主导；

而北约是美国主导。

美国军事上保护欧盟，却无法主导欧洲的政治经济，哪有这样的道理？

欧盟的货币是欧元，欧元是世界第二强货币，抗衡美元，川普天天把“谁不用美元就给谁加关税”挂在嘴上。

欧洲经济政治一体化，东欧国家纷纷加入，实际上就是对非欧盟国家（主要是俄罗斯）的“变相经济制裁”，俄罗斯被排除在圈子之外，当然不舒服。

面对一个强大的欧盟，美国会舒服吗？一个强大的欧洲对美国是好事吗？

美国史学界一直有一个观点，就是，美国20世纪的最大失误就是冷战结束，德国统一，欧洲再次崛起。

川普的逻辑，very simple， very straightforward.

英国“意外”脱欧，看来可能是运气太好。

欧洲统一后，表面上看对大家都有好处，尤其是头20-30年，但一旦面对债务危机，一旦面对移民入侵，一旦面对外敌发动的战争，问题出来了，各怀心腹事，一边抵抗俄罗斯侵略，一边向俄罗斯买石油，买电，还与支持俄罗斯的中国继续做生意。

尤其是欧元区，大麻烦，各国政府的债务问题永远解决不了，欧元区国家几乎被绑定，任何国家都无法承受欧元区解体，一旦发生颠覆，就是“整体性颠覆”，代价巨大。

这就像中国，大一统是好事，但大一统之下，一旦发生的革命，就是整体颠覆，为什么中国走不出历史周期律？ 制度造成的☝️中央集权之下，一旦发生革命，就是upheaval......就是天下大乱，要大治，就必须先大乱。

美国，联邦制，川普再怎么折腾，不会天下大乱，但中国，领导人一折腾，看看“十年文革”，再看看“三年清零”......

英国能发生光荣革命，日本能明治维新，但中国做不到，郡县制，不是分封制，“莫从子厚返文王”，秦制的麻烦：权力太过集中，思想太过统一，社会精英铁板一块，对付老百姓。“百代都行秦政治”，在中国制度下，你一旦堕入社会底层，很惨的。

中国本来就是“倒丁字形”社会结构，底层庞大，经济好的时候，社会矛盾被暂时掩盖，但随着经济下行，老龄化加剧，社会救助体系本来就是摆设，社会底层会进一步扩大，矛盾一旦尖锐到一定程度，顶层再发生最高领导人身体健康问题，很可能发生“整体性颠覆”，这就是历史周期律发生作用了，而这种整体性颠覆，这么大人口基数，这么庞大的贫困底层，一旦发生社会大乱，就万劫不复。

苏联开始急剧衰败就是因为勃列日涅夫的去世，他去世前发动了苏阿战争，他死后战争持续，这场战争几乎拖垮了苏联财政。

经济学家、上海财大校长刘元春2023年说，中国的青年失业率会持续十年，处理不好就会成为政治问题的导火索。中国的老龄化处理不好，更麻烦。中国社会问题还没爆发的一个原因，是中国的年轻人“还有老可以啃”，等到他们父母退休金都发不出来的时候，问题就会总爆发。

目前看来，中国的人口老化加速几乎是不可逆转的，那么中国发生“整体性颠覆”的可能性也是越来越大，再强大的核心也不可能“长生不老”，人老了脑子也会老化，控制力也会削弱。

川普是不是看到了普通人看不到的vision?

川普是不是上帝给美国派来的总统？

就像上帝给中国人派来了毛泽东？给犹太人派来了摩西？

如果未来20-30年，中国与欧洲（欧盟）相继发生“根本性的整体颠覆”，那么美国是不是就可以自动“再次伟大”了呢？

What is Trump Thinking?

I believe he hopes for a "fundamental and overall upheaval" in Europe (the EU).

The EU is a political and economic alliance of European countries, led by Germany and France;

Meanwhile, NATO is led by the United States.

The U.S. provides military protection for the EU but cannot dominate Europe politically or economically—how does that make sense?

The EU's currency is the euro, the world's second most powerful currency, which competes with the U.S. dollar. Trump constantly talks about imposing tariffs on those who do not use the dollar.

European economic and political integration, with Eastern European countries joining in, essentially acts as an "economic sanction in disguise" against non-EU countries, primarily Russia. Being excluded from this circle, Russia naturally feels uncomfortable.

Does the U.S. feel comfortable facing a powerful EU? Is a strong Europe a good thing for America?

There has long been a view in U.S. historical circles that America's biggest mistake of the 20th century was allowing the Cold War to end, Germany to reunify, and Europe to rise again.

Trump's logic is very simple, very straightforward.

The "unexpected" Brexit—perhaps just a stroke of luck?

On the surface, European unity seems beneficial for everyone, especially in the first 20–30 years. But once faced with a debt crisis, an influx of immigrants, or a war launched by an external enemy, problems arise.

Each country has its own interests: fighting against Russian aggression while buying oil and electricity from Russia, continuing business with China, which supports Russia.

Especially in the eurozone, the debt problems of national governments will never be resolved. Eurozone countries are practically bound together—no country can afford the dissolution of the eurozone. If an upheaval occurs, it will be an "overall upheaval" with enormous consequences.

This is similar to China. Unification seems like a good thing, but under unification, once a revolution happens, it leads to overall upheaval. Why can’t China escape the cycle of history?

The system itself is to blame. ☝️ Under centralized power, any revolution leads to upheaval. Chaos must come before order.

The U.S. is a federal system—no matter how much Trump stirs things up, it won’t lead to nationwide turmoil. But in China, when a leader makes a move, look at the "Ten Years of the Cultural Revolution" or the "Three Years of Zero-COVID Policy"...

The UK had the Glorious Revolution, and Japan had the Meiji Restoration, but China cannot do the same. Its commandery-county system is not a feudal system—"Do not return from Han Yu to King Wen" (莫从子厚返文王).

The problem with the Qin system is over-centralized power, overly unified thought, and a ruling elite forming a solid front against the common people.

"For a hundred generations, all have followed Qin's political system."

Under China's system, once you fall into the lower class, it’s a nightmare.

China has always had a "T-shaped" social structure, with a huge lower class. When the economy is good, social contradictions are temporarily hidden. But as the economy declines and aging accelerates, with a social welfare system that is practically nonexistent, the lower class will further expand.

Once contradictions become too sharp, if the top leadership also faces a health crisis, an "overall upheaval" is highly likely.

This is the historical cycle at work. And with such a large population base, such a massive poor underclass, once societal disorder erupts, it will be catastrophic.

The Soviet Union began its rapid decline after Brezhnev’s death. Before his death, he launched the Soviet-Afghan War, and after his death, the war continued, draining the Soviet Union’s finances.

In 2023, economist Liu Yuanchun, president of Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, stated that China’s youth unemployment rate would remain high for a decade, and if not handled properly, it could become a political flashpoint.

If China’s aging problem is not addressed, it will be even worse.

One reason China’s social problems have not yet exploded is that young people "still have parents to rely on". But once their parents’ pensions can no longer be paid, problems will erupt all at once.

As of now, China's rapid aging seems irreversible, meaning the likelihood of an "overall upheaval" is increasing.

No matter how strong the "core leadership" is, no one can live forever. As a leader ages, their mental faculties will also decline, and their control will weaken.

Did Trump foresee something that ordinary people cannot see?

Is Trump the president sent by God to America?

Just like God sent Mao Zedong to China? Like God sent Moses to the Jews?

If in the next 20–30 years, both China and Europe (the EU) undergo "fundamental and overall upheavals,"

Will the United States automatically "become great again"?