中國通縮之殤：從流動性陷阱到經濟系統性危機
CPI一直處於通縮區間，這樣持續了2年出頭了，但央行此前堅決否認通縮，今年早些時候，前行長易綱出來放話，半推半就地承認了。但還是沒直接承認通縮，只承認說“需求不足”。
中國的貨幣供應量並未減少，信貸沒有緊縮，不滿足嚴格意義上的通縮，2024年3月，【聯合早報】轉印彭博社文章，【中國的流動性陷阱山雨欲來 各個市場融資成本都在下滑】，文章中說，儘管人民銀行在過去一年中兩次下調政策利率，但1月份的貸款增幅仍創下紀錄低點。在信心不足之下，消費者和企業坐擁現金……因此，中國最危險的是流動性陷阱，就像劉煜輝說的，貨幣乘數塌了，放多少錢出來都沒用。
PPI的持續的下跌已經證明中國實際上就是通貨緊縮了。今年除了水電氣等國家控制的領域，整個社會的物價水平持續下跌趨勢明顯。市場上沒有任何投資賺錢效應，就連高歌猛進的汽車業也開始了裁員潮，就像高善文剛說過的，國運衰了幹啥都是錯的。
絕大多數人的收入（收入預期）都在持續下降，大家集體進入防災模式，都不花錢，貨幣乘數必然坍塌。
大家都不花錢，你賺不到我的錢，我也賺不到你的錢，錢自然無法迴圈，當然不會有投資賺錢效應。
11月的資料只是再次證明而已，這不是上個月是如此，而是過去2年，基本上每個月都如此。
中國已經進入通縮的死亡螺旋。
中國的貨幣儲蓄分化極其嚴重。沒錢的人需要錢，你借給他，其實他未來也還不起，因為整個社會沒有賺錢效應了。不需要錢的人，他也不會找銀行借錢。這就出現了無解的難題。
政府會給沒錢的人發錢嗎？不可能。
居民存款150萬億，人均存款10萬出頭，但是事實上負債人口8億，逾期人口4億，極少數人掌握了社會絕大部分個人存款，無論怎麼刺激消費，就是起不來。
看來，中國即使把利率降到0，也不會有人投資了，而富人本來就極少，消費能拉起來多少呢？富人個個都想跑。
未來可以預見的，除了醫療和養老，整個社會的物價水平還會繼續下降，企業不賺錢，就沒有新增投資，也就沒有就業崗位增加，從大學生的就業率就能看出來了，就像經濟學家劉元春說的，青年失業率高企，可能持續10年，是趨勢性和系統性的，言外之意，經濟問題也是趨勢性系統性結構性的，短期之內解決不了，長期更別指望，在這個國家，你是不敢想“將來”的。
沒有分配製度改革，二次分配搞不好，只是收稅沒有用的，中國整體的稅負水平已經不低了。但如果拒絕分配製度改革，那就只能是在稅收上繼續想辦法，居民和企業很難榨出油水，那就只剩下向富人徵稅這一條路。
在通縮的大背景下，存款利率必須小於CPI上漲幅度，直接負數。CPI為負數，而存款利率為正數，實際利率還是很高。如何搶劫富人？存款不但沒利息，還收2-3%管理費，對退休金超過10000的群體直接收30-45%所得稅，說白了，那就是動體制內權貴的乳酪。但這麼幹，直接把官僚系統全都得罪了。
英國這次農民遊行，反對加稅，喊出的口號是：我們可以沒有政府，但不能沒有農民。中國不一樣，刁民太多，暴民更多，窮鬼們個個都想革命，個個都想把爛尾樓丟給銀行，幾千萬的男光棍們都恨不得去大齡剩女氾濫的大城市搶親了，中國可不能沒有政府，否則就是“人亡政息，社會大亂”。
所以，希望韭菜們再堅持一下，要增強信心，體諒一下黨和政府的不容易。
China's Persistent Deflation: An Analysis of the Economic Downturn
China’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) has remained in the deflationary range for over two years. Despite this prolonged trend, the central bank has firmly denied the existence of deflation. Earlier this year, former central bank governor Yi Gang indirectly acknowledged the issue by admitting to “insufficient demand” without explicitly recognizing deflation.
Strictly speaking, China does not meet the textbook definition of deflation, as the money supply has not decreased, and credit has not tightened. However, as Bloomberg noted in a March 2024 article reprinted by Lianhe Zaobao, “China’s Liquidity Trap Looms: Financing Costs Falling Across Markets,” despite two policy rate cuts over the past year, loan growth in January hit a record low. With weak confidence, consumers and businesses are holding onto cash. Economist Liu Yuhui aptly described the situation as a collapse in the money multiplier: no matter how much money is injected into the system, it proves ineffective.
The continuous decline in the Producer Price Index (PPI) already confirms that China is, in fact, experiencing deflation. Aside from state-controlled utilities like water, electricity, and gas, the overall price level across society has been on a clear downward trend. Investment opportunities with attractive returns are virtually nonexistent, and even the once-booming auto industry has entered a wave of layoffs. As economist Gao Shanwen remarked, “When a nation is in decline, nothing seems to go right.”
The majority of people are facing a steady decline in income and income expectations. Society as a whole has entered a "disaster-prevention mode," where people avoid spending money, causing the money multiplier to collapse. When no one spends, you cannot earn from me, and I cannot earn from you. Money circulation stagnates, and there are no profitable investment opportunities.
The data from November merely reiterates what has been happening monthly over the past two years: China has entered a deflationary death spiral.
Severe Wealth Inequality
China's monetary and savings landscape is highly polarized. Those without money desperately need it but cannot repay loans due to a lack of profit-generating opportunities in the economy. Meanwhile, those with wealth see no reason to borrow. This creates an unsolvable dilemma.
Will the government distribute money to those in need? Unlikely.
While residents’ savings total 150 trillion yuan, averaging over 100,000 yuan per person, the reality is stark: 800 million people are in debt, 400 million have overdue payments, and a tiny fraction controls the vast majority of personal savings. No matter how consumption is stimulated, it cannot gain traction.
Even if interest rates were reduced to zero, investment enthusiasm would not recover. Wealthy individuals, already a minority, contribute little to overall consumption, and many are looking to leave the country.
Predictable Outcomes
Looking ahead, except for medical care and elderly care, prices across society are likely to continue declining. With businesses unprofitable, there will be no new investments or additional employment opportunities. This is evident from the low employment rates among college graduates. Economist Liu Yuanchun predicts that youth unemployment will remain high for a decade, describing it as a systemic and structural trend. In other words, the economic problems are long-term and deeply entrenched. In such a climate, imagining a hopeful "future" becomes a luxury.
Without reforming the distribution system and addressing secondary distribution, merely increasing taxes will not solve the problem. China’s overall tax burden is already high. If redistribution reforms are avoided, the only option will be to target the wealthy for higher taxes.
Robbing the Rich?
In a deflationary context, deposit interest rates must remain below the CPI inflation rate, effectively turning negative. With CPI already negative and deposit rates still positive, the real interest rate is high. To "rob" the rich, policies could include eliminating interest on deposits and imposing a 2-3% management fee, or levying a 30-45% tax on pensions exceeding 10,000 yuan. Such measures, however, would directly antagonize the bureaucratic elite.
The Fragility of Governance
Recent protests in the UK by farmers opposed to tax hikes carried slogans like, "We can do without the government, but we cannot do without farmers." In China, the situation is different. With a large number of agitated individuals and potential unrest, the government’s absence could lead to chaos. Without strong governance, society could spiral into disorder.
For now, the "sheep" are urged to hold on, show confidence, and understand the government’s challenges.